So...nearly 3.5M shares pre-market on Friday @ $1.88 (significantly above average volume) and the price didn't move a penny? How did the market absorb that volume without movement? Anyone have an intelligent, descriptive answer to how that could happen?

Any technical/chart guys watching this? I'd appreciate a 2-3 sentence recap of what you see - no need to chart it all out and explain everything. Just a newbie trying to get some experience! Thanks in advance.

Looks like a pump from a website with an email distribution list...like Sierra only without the name recognition.

I mean, I'll take the volume any day...but hard to believe it will be sustained movement. IMO.

I'd say it held up pretty well considering everyone knew it was coming and sold the news. Updated data allows for stronger negotiations if they choose to go that route.

Although dilution is a bit of a concern in the short term, this market cap is peanuts compared what's to come if phase 3 returns similar results. Considering their improvements to trial design, we could be looking at even better results in phase 3 and commercialization right around the corner.

I'll be stacking away a couple hundred shares a month over the next year and waiting. It's not exciting but I'm betting it will be worth it once the trials are narrowed and powered for statistical significance where it matters.

Trading below book value = takeover target?

Since Phase III is a green light, I think updated data will be the trigger. No guarantees but clinicaltrials.gov shows statistically significant results for one subset which tells me there is little risk on success of Phase III.

Just a waiting game. Place your bets.

IMUC Short Interest - NASDAQ

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/imuc/short-interest

I would say that looks like a meaningful drop. I picked up more yesterday and will continue to buy chunks when I can until it pops.

Anyone watching this stock close enough to know if de-listing (or a notice) is coming? I've also noticed other companies issue a PR once all shares available under an offering have been sold - I haven't seen anything like that yet here.

Insider buying convinced me to buy more, but this continued pressure downward has to make you wonder.

Not sure if this has been posted yet since I haven't kept up on all posts here...

But a simple theory:

First draft sent and printed/forwarded by JB. Plans made of how to label things: A, B, C.

Second (finalized?) draft sent later. JB misses it (doesn't forward on or maybe doesn't read close enough that it is now A, C, B). Really falls on her no matter what since she should have made sure the people actually labeling knew what was correct.

In between the trial has started...maybe during a meeting it hits her that she should be using A, C, B but she was basing every decision off that first copy A, B, C. She notices she made a mistake and rather than owning up to it right away (scared of losing job, looking incompetent) fixes the mistake she made and starts from this point forward using the corrected method.

No envelops left under the park bench. No cash purchases of super glue to switch labels without being noticed. Just a simple, stupid mistake caused by multiple drafts of a work order and a person's desire not to lose their job over a silly mistake.

Blah blah blah - time passes and the results are being discussed maybe internally at CSM or maybe with Peregrine. Someone who was involved initially know for certain they were labeling A, B, C in the early deals and refers to an old email. It's pointed out that is old, but they are still certain JB had them labeling the first way then sees it is trying to be passed off as A, C, B the whole time. It was early in the trial so only 25% of patients had the wrong dose and only for part of the time. It's pointed out and JB is fired for trying to cover her mistake.

Speculation? Yes. But Occam's Razor here...it's a simple mistake. Anyone who has worked over email knows that 10 versions getting updated and catching every detail is difficult. I could retype this post 10x and change a few things and ask you to read it over and over. Eventually you'll notice I'm changing one letter here and there and stop reading every sentence's meaning and fill in the words in your mind. I could slip in a completely different meaning and many won't notice I changed anything. It's normal...

Maybe someone pointed it out to Peregrine when they noticed the 1, 2, 3 should be 1, 3, 2 - and once again someone didn't read close enough to notice the difference and said "hey no big deal, I don't care what you call them" and that was considered "sign off" to the error.

Peregrine is probably arguing that the official document is what matters, CSM is saying "your email says you approved" and now the remaining judgement from the court is dealing with the fact that CSM switched mid-trial and what does that mean exactly?

Now, your turn--tear that theory apart, please. If it's not possible, I'd like to know why...and I'd prefer not to read someone's adaptation to "Who's on First" in the process but if you can make it interesting, let's hear it.

July $4 Call Options have a bid of $0.05 -- for someone happy with over a 100% return and already assuming the risk of owning shares, selling some covered calls isn't a bad idea.

I was going to but I don't like the idea of having my shares locked up for that long for a mere $0.05 - some of the long-term share holders (with more capital than myself) might be interested in it, though.

No worries of funding/dilution? I can't justify buying more until I have a little better understanding of what their financial plans are.

The clinical trial results are there - just not the money....yet.

I should have specified that I think Peregrine is undervalued at its current market cap, not necessarily that Avid is worth the whole $250M

Hey MD - pardon my lack of detail here, but I remember someone posting about how if Peregrine went under that Avid couldn't be touched as an asset to sell off and repay debts. Or maybe it was that Avid profits couldn't be used explicitly to pay for the interest on PPHMP. I can't recall exactly.

Does this ring a bell or am I misremembering? I bring this up regarding your point behind the market cap of only $250M and how Avid is worth more than that. I know it doesn't really make sense since profits go to Peregrine's pocket and therefore should be considered when determining the value of Peregrine - but my thinking was that if there really is some way that Avid can't be touched then the MC discussion changes a little. IMO still undervalued, but the discussion still changes a bit.

Look at the updated data posted to clinicaltrials.gov that hasn't been included in any PR

SNO might raise a little interest

That is another $9k on the $1.50 strike options...on top of yesterdays Jan $2 and $2.50 strike options that totaled about $9k.

We had some decent volume (relatively) on Jan 2015 $2 and $2.50 strike (K) options. Two reasons to buy out-of-the-money call options above the current share price (S):

1. You hope the price will go above $2 or $2.50 so that you make money, being able to buy shares for less than market value if the share price is above the strike. Profit = (S - K) or expire worthless and you're out of what was paid for the options/commission.

2. You have shorted some shares, but know that the share price could move significantly if Peregrine announces good news (refer to dia's catalyst list)...and you want limited exposure to such an event. Maximum loss = K, not S. Example, owning strike K=$2 but buyout is announced at S=$10 - the most you lose is covering at $2/share instead of $10).

Put volume didn't match call volume, so these options aren't part of a spread position. Whoever purchased them has skin in the game, one way or another (or maybe they buy put options tomorrow and then I look stupid). We're talking about roughly $9k in option premium. Which isn't pennies or millions, but a nice chunk of change.

Neither of these scenarios limit the possibility of a move downward, rather they show a long who expects an up move or a short who is smart (or worried) and covering their @ss for the potential of a move up and willing to pay $9k for 2 months of insurance.

Before someone jumps on me, I know this is a highly simplified example...I'll be happy to make copies of my actuarial study manuals for those interested in the details of option pricing (just pay shipping and handling ;).

Option volume is up toady -- looks like someone is betting on a move up (or hedging a short position against the possibility).

Either way, I like it.

Short interest decreased 9.5% from 8/29/14 to 9/13/14

Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
9/15/2014 1,686,000 264,858 6.365675
8/29/2014 1,863,429 284,330 6.553754


Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/imuc/short-interest#ixzz3F19E37jH

On the contrary - someone really wanted in. Big buy early in the day followed by a couple sells - looks like they waited until the bid was built up to support their sell around the 0.99-1.00 mark. We just didn't quite bounce back - long term, still in an upswing IMO.

Looking forward to the company's update this month and will definitely buy more if we break into the .80s again. Not sure of long term strategy, but I can't see why this isn't a good 10-20% trade at these levels.

I was a little afraid of the reverse - glad to see that was accepted positively by shareholders.

Should have got in at 9 but missed the boat.

Index rebalancing - lots of stocks making these high volume trades today. Unfortunately, that's all it is.

PS - no position here, considering it so I watch the board.

Tendering your shares means you agree to the price of $6.44 + CVR payments. If they get 51% of shares to tender, then it doesn't matter if you personally like it or not because the majority rules (more or less, but you do have legal options if you really wanna try to fight it...good luck). If the majority of shareholders agree to the deal, then the deal happens regardless of what the minority want.

If you're not happy with the price, don't accept the tender offer. If 51% vote against the offer, it's possible they get another higher offer from Lundbeck or maybe someone else....or a lower offer....or maybe no other offer at all. Risk is the name of the game.

Just know if the tender offer is accepted by 51% of shareholders - you're pretty much locked into that same deal. Your shares disappear and you get $6.44/each with the potential for $1.50 in CVR payments. Doesn't matter what your vote was. You don't get special treatment based on your own vote - the majority's opinion is the only thing that matters.

Best of luck

Is anyone here familiar enough with the rules regarding the release of PRs when a company is in talks for partnership or anything of the sort? I'm just thinking out loud...but could it be possible that they are restricted from releasing anything that could "move the needle" while they are in closed-door discussions?

I'm conflicted on the subject between what would be considered holding back material information and when a company would need to keep quiet. Can't say I've read a whole lot of SEC rules/regs.

Just a thought.

What's the word on the R/S? Any reading material on the subject out there?

I'm currently not holding a position but am looking to jump in. Haven't seen much about a R/S in the information I've looked at. Is this up for a vote or already on the table?

Thanks in advance!

Sure there is a chance...if the deal falls through the price could drop. But with everything in place I don't see how that would be possible. If so, it would be the arbitrage deal of the century staring at us in the face and it's time to borrow as much as your credit line allows to buy more knowing for certain you can sell for $6.44 later.

Until pen meets paper, anything can happen.

You will need to be holding your shares at the time of the deal closing in order to receive the CVR payments. So if you sell now, you're only hurting yourself IMO since you're giving up .10/share that could potentially be $1.50/share. I'd say it is more of a present/expected value type calc - the chance of them hitting each sales target * CVR payment discounted to today @ i%. I think the value is greater than .10/share personally.

The option activity has been interesting too - some significant buys on the $7 strike calls leads me to believe that others are expecting an increase whenever the tender offer actually is commenced. I don't believe they have actually filed the paperwork yet, unless I missed something someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

I would say that once the closing date nears, the price rises to better price in the risk associated with the CVR payments. Right now, as I mentioned, they are only valued at about .10 (current stock price - cash buyout price). I expect that to increase closer to .50 or more by the deal close date otherwise you could buy one day before the close and for a very small fee (.10) you could have the potential $1.50 in payouts over the next few years. Huge return yes, risky yes, but I think the market will price that more accordingly as the date nears. Depending on each individuals expected probability of Lundbeck hitting sales and personal discount rate, that's when I would say it is time to evaluate if the risk is work the return.

CVR Reading Material:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/05/09/shadowy-shares-the-dark-side-of-contingent-value-rights/

http://www.wlrk.com/webdocs/wlrknew/AttorneyPubs/WLRK.18405.11.pdf

Hey boys (and girls) - I was just doing a little reading on IGXT and see that they're in a pretty good position with their pipeline and have a catalyst coming up here in June. What are the thoughts on that CRL? It looks to be partially responded to but they are still providing data...does that sound correct?

I'd appreciate any little details that someone who has been here for a while could provide regarding their position. I'll continue my DD before I hit the buy button on my end, just thought I would post something here too that might help point me towards some good reading material.

Thanks in advance.

Fair assumption - I can't say whether or not the value is set in stone or not, but I certainly think it was low and they may have a hard time getting enough shareholders to sign off on the deal. So, a higher price from Lundbeck or someone else is certainly possible...otherwise I guess it is also possible that people want to secure a method to buy more shares right before the deal closes and the $7 strike is the cheapest way to do that if the share price moves up toward closing day? Idk, just speculation.

Also a little surprised to see options extending out into 2016 now...unless they were there before the deal and I just never noticed. Guess I have some studying to do on M&A.

I need some help understanding why people are buying a significant amount of June, September, and December $7 calls?

The price is "fixed" at $6.44/share whenever the deal closes. So where is the value in these options that I am not seeing? Covering a short position doesn't really make sense to me and I can't see a strong potential for the stock price shooting up above $7 before then (although, I will admit that a better offer is a possibility, but I wouldn't feel comfortable betting hundreds/thousands in options on the possibility...)

Anyone with a theory, I would appreciate the input.

I'm also disappointed with the price. My options were apparently too rich for the deal they took.

I'm not sure if they will get 51% of shareholders to agree to the price. I think management said - "OK, you can try!" Management may have felt the pressure to do something quick while the share price was sinking and they did. It might not be what we wanted but I'm sure they took the best offer in front of them at the time. The good news is, anyone else considering Northera knows the price to beat.

For now, there is a floor on the stock - limited downside potential is my favorite kind of risk. Guess I'll be holding for a little while longer to see how this all plays out.

Thanks - were you out before the jump this morning? I don't remember if you got back in or not. I'm still in as of right now - at only .06 over the cash offer, I don't see much downside right now. On the other hand, I feel the offer is low and see that short interest was up as of 4/15 - maybe that's clouded judgement and wishful thinking, though.

Anything in mind that I should add to my watch list? Everything I have on my watch list (except PPHM) I only view as 5-10% trade potentials. Looking for another one year, 500%+ gainer to read up on.

Not near enough, IMO.

Oh well...on to the next one!

Acquisition:

http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=62124521&xref=newsalert

Amended 10K released today regarding the compensation. Bottom of page 8 references the possible sale of the company. I'd say there are some incentives to finish the deal by end of 2014 based on what I read.

That being said, I'm not sure if "analyst estimates" have factored in these bonuses so we may miss on 'earnings' - which shouldn't really matter yet but I guess that will depend how it is received by WS.

I'd say - now that this is filed - we are more likely to see action from the company regarding an update on direction (BO/licensing/GIA).

Biotech of the week:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/04/28/biotech-of-the-week-chelsea-therapeutics-internati.aspx

Anyone here a pro subscriber to Seeking Alpha? I see that there is research/ an article only available to them. Maybe that could shed some light on recent movement...

Short interest has come back down. Institutional Ownership shows one new already - positive signs so far...

You must have Etrade....

I think it is obvious that the company is undervalued but until there is concrete facts to support that, the stock price will not hold steady. This company isn't ripe for trading, it's an investment. Given what we know today, time is your friend with this company IMO.

What we know:
1. Accelerated Approval of Nothera
2. Estimated peak annual sales eclipse current market cap
3. Only (indirect) competition is under scrutiny, any weakness increases CHTP's value - with significant potential.
4. CEO (and thus BOD) has shown interest in maximizing company value in whichever way makes most sense (BO, partner, GIA). Value defined not by "what will make our company's share price jump 10% tomorrow" ... but rather "what will double our value by next year" (but in all honesty, lets hope it happens sooner).
5. Company can't stay quiet forever and earnings are due soon.

I'm holding my stock and buy short term calls out of the money each month - knowing that any day a $0.05 call option could return 20x or more with the right news. I'm personally betting it is just matter of time and putting my money where my mouth is. Any dip in price makes my out of the money call options get a strike lower and lower - which is a good thing if a BO comes at the "expected" range.

Strong rise today - on average volume. Still undervalued in my opinion. I'm glad to get some of my money back since my horribly timed double down at $6/share.

YMB has talk of changes to the website. I would say money spent on changes to website design points less to buyout and more partnership. Go it alone seems nearly impossible at this point given the lack of hiring and marketing. Just a thought.

Unfortunately there is nothing to even speculate on or research about this company considering the lack of action (or at least public action...). Guess we'll all just have to hold on a little longer than expected...