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You will need to be holding your shares

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Guppi00   Tuesday, 05/20/14 12:36:17 PM
Re: Noonehasthisusername post# 3000
Post # of 3033 
You will need to be holding your shares at the time of the deal closing in order to receive the CVR payments. So if you sell now, you're only hurting yourself IMO since you're giving up .10/share that could potentially be $1.50/share. I'd say it is more of a present/expected value type calc - the chance of them hitting each sales target * CVR payment discounted to today @ i%. I think the value is greater than .10/share personally.

The option activity has been interesting too - some significant buys on the $7 strike calls leads me to believe that others are expecting an increase whenever the tender offer actually is commenced. I don't believe they have actually filed the paperwork yet, unless I missed something someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

I would say that once the closing date nears, the price rises to better price in the risk associated with the CVR payments. Right now, as I mentioned, they are only valued at about .10 (current stock price - cash buyout price). I expect that to increase closer to .50 or more by the deal close date otherwise you could buy one day before the close and for a very small fee (.10) you could have the potential $1.50 in payouts over the next few years. Huge return yes, risky yes, but I think the market will price that more accordingly as the date nears. Depending on each individuals expected probability of Lundbeck hitting sales and personal discount rate, that's when I would say it is time to evaluate if the risk is work the return.

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