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The Italians have something called fer'agosto ... essentially the country heads to the beach for much of August. You can go to many Italian cities in August and have a hard time finding open businesses in non-tourist areas. It's actually amazing how the cities empty. Hopefully the good folks at UB come back soon and get back to work.
Thanks to all the posters for their thoughts on the Dr. KSS piece. I think Mr. Ehrlich's response is excellent. I wish CTIX didn't have to spend so much time defending itself against these attacks and could focus 100% on getting K, B & P through trials and eventually to the people who need them. GLTAL!!
A less than flattering piece on Stock Gumnshoe about CTIX: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/08/cellceutix-23-minutes-with-leo-ehrlich/?utm_source=Dr.+KSS+81415&utm_campaign=DailyUpdate&utm_medium=email.
Thoughts from the community?
It's been an interesting day. I was at a hockey camp with my youngest son when this SA article magically popped up on my phone. At first I thought it would be a non-event. After all, who the h%$! is Mako Research and its anonymous Doctor of Biotechnology? Plus, SA is a joke of a site. When I came back, my portfolio was a mess of red. Talk about surprise.
I have been long CTIX for quite a while (cost basis @ $0.55). I have also been a long time reader of this board though I seldom write posts. Today is a prime example of what happens when people hold positions in stocks they have no idea about. While it hurts today, I still believe in this company and its science.
I once lost money in a "shell" company. Truth be told, I fell for a nice story since that was all that company had. CTIX is a completely different animal. Kevetrin, Brilacidin & Prurisol. Real drugs with real trials. Orphan drug status. QDIP designation. Dana Farber and Deaconess Beth Israel. Perhaps Mako Research knows something that those prestigious institutions, the FDA and the formidable posters (such as KarinCa) don't though I doubt it.
Know what you own. I for one, will be a buyer once I get a sense whether a floor has been hit. This appears to be a gift I will not refuse.
GLTAL!
How is that post a HIPAA violation? No personally identifiable information is disclosed.
It looks to me like we have support in the $2.86 area.
Sorry BioChica but Ricardoga is correct ... in much (if not all) of Europe at least you would write 1,86 not 1.86. Now, let's hope AMRN amd Kowa can get those scrip numbers flying while we wait for favorable Reduce-It info.
GLTAL
I agree ... had hoped we could avoid a partner but there seems to be too many powerful interests stacked up against AMRN and management doesn't seem to be up to the task. Lawsuits could drag-on. Scripts are going nowhere. Time for some help.
It may be a bumpy ride but patience will be rewarded here ... hold on folks!!
Sounds like it to me. If not, a lawsuit becomes a much more viable option.
Management is not incompetent. Like many here I hate looking at my account balance (or lack thereof) since the AdComm but I think we need to keep things in perspective.
First, its my understanding that JZ and some of his top managers were at Reliant which developed Lovaza. As a result, these people know how to bring a drug to market. They also fetched $1.6 BB for the sale of Reliant. We have a better drug here. I am willing to give them some time to right the ship.
Second, many of us (including myself) question the process here and the integrity of the FDA. If we are correct that AMRN was the victim of underhanded dealing - how can we blame management? I don't recall any longs predicting this. Hindsight is 20/20. Again, I'm willing to give management time to regroup.
I will agree that JZ was horrible during the post-AdComm CC and his manner during the past couple of years has been akin to the cat that ate the canary. Depending on his replacement I wouldn't cry too hard if he was sacked. That being said now its time for management to prove its worth but I don't want action for action's sake. I want a well considered plan to get AMRN back where it belongs.
GLTAL
AMRN will not just withdraw Anchor and cancel Reduce-It - at the present time those are the keys to unlocking the value in Vascepa though I suspect there will be more indications in the future (such as numerous inflammatory diseases). IMHO we are sitting on a blockbuster that is completely unrecognized by the FDA and the markets. Let's remember the markets are not infallible and neither is the FDA.
Please also keep in mind that the people at AMRN have the most to gain from success with Anchor and Reduce-It. I would be willing to wager a case of Jamiesons that many if not all of the employees left are sitting on out of the money stock grants that they'd love to exercise.
This stock is going to require a steel stomach but I still believe AMRN will prevail in the end. That and a buck won't buy you a cup of coffee but its my story and I'm sticking to it.
"[S]o many posts critical (most of them IMHO, unjustified) has not helped the situation . . . ."
If that were in fact the case I would sell my shares right now and take the loss (I truly hope it is not). Any leader worth his salt should be open to dissenting viewpoints. How can anyone make wise decisions if they surround themselves only with sycophants? If you are right, however, that JZ likes the company of yes-men then it would explain why he inexplicably sounded stupefied and had absolutely no Plan B at the post-AdComm CC. Can you imagine men in the heat of combat (and this is business combat) looking to their leader for inspiration and all they receive in return is a blank stare? IMHO he needs to prove he can lead this company back to where it belongs.
I have just one question here that I can't seem to get past with regards to AMRN and the Anchor sNDA. Specifically, while there is no evidence at the present time acceptable to the FDA that lowering TGs will have a beneficial effect on CVD there is also no proof that lowering TGs will not have a beneficial effect. In such a situation, isn't it the safer move here to approve the indication (even if only conditionally) rather than reject it outright especially in this case where there are no discernible health risks from taking Vascepa?
I agree with the point made earlier that FDA really doesn't care if its sued and how much is spent defending a suit. They can just tax us some more. On the other hand, wouldn't the FDA seek to avoid really bad press which would be assured if ReduceIt comes out in three years with blockbuster results? No one (even government bureaucrats) wants blood on their hands.
IMHO AMRN isn't dropping significantly on this news because it's already armageddon priced. Currently, AMRN's market cap is at $300MM plus. Kindly note GSK bought Reliant (developers of Lovaza) for $1.6 billion. Vascepa is generally regarded as a superior drug to Lovaza which currently earns close to $1 billion per year (in the Marine indication plus off-label). To put a roughly equivalent valuation on AMRN would require the share price to be at $9.27 today (not including potential Anchor indication plus other possible markets). To put it succinctly AMRN is very undervalued barring some unforeseen catastrophe.
JZ should be the first to get a pink slip. The incompetent fool of a leader gets to stay.
Because its worth more than $2 per share. I feel sorry for those people who panicked last week. This company has some pretty darn good assets folks.
Signed . . . thanks for setting it up.
I'll be happy to send this to my elected representatives in New Jersey.
I'm with you both and hope there is a surprise come December. In any event, I am holding. GLTAL
I hear posters talking about suing the FDA. That sounds good in theory but how long (and at what expense) for the result? Lets remember folks that litigation is not a speedy process particularly against the government and top notch attorneys don't come cheap. I think the company needs to realize that its assumptions about what the FDA was looking for has changed. It isn't fair but that's what we have to deal with now. The company needs to batten down the hatches and do all that it can to maximize its position. Does it proceed with ReduceIt or mothball it for now? Does the company look for a partner or buyer? How can they improve Marine sales? These are the questions they need to be asking themselves this morning.
GLTAL
I have to disagree. Terminating ReduceIt would not be shameful. It may be necessary depending on the company's financial situation going forward. Amarin is a private company not a public trust and, as such, its primary responsibility is to the shareholders not the general public. Quite frankly if the FDA wanted ReduceIt to be completed they should have thought about the ramifications of its actions today. The AdComm was absurd theater and I have serious questions as to whether the FDA was co-opted in this instance.
Where to from here?
I'll be curious to hear what the company has to say tonight but I don't think they have a contingency plan ready to go other than to move forward with Marine, pray the FDA rejects the AdComm's Anchor recommendation (can't see this happening after a 9-2 vote) and maybe hope that a decent buyout offer presents itself. We can all forget the SR-fueled $28-32 buyout dreams. Personally I would be happy with $10 in light of the long wait/dilution we would have to endure while hoping the Reduce-It results are positive (which I anticipate).
As far as a buyout is concerned, perhaps I'm a bit of a conspiracy theorist but I'm still scratching my head at how the AdComm went down today. Here you have a drug that has no harmful side effects, is proven to reduce TGs and will in all likelihood be shown to help with CVD (based on JELIS) not to mention all the other potential benefits yet it is overwhelmingly rejected?? The only winner I can see here is BP that can now throw a low ball offer at the company and say take it or leave it.
I've been long a few years here but never imagined this would happen. The only thing I know I won't do is sell at anything under $10. I'd rather hold this stock for the next ten years if I have to than do that.
GLTAL
Good grief ... been long two years now and wish I'd sold at 15. Would be happy to get 10 and out of here. They got steamrolled today
AF is getting frustrated on his live blog . . . doesn't think the witnesses will help AMRN. Fun to listen to now.
Very quiet during the bathroom break. Thoughts so far??