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Do you have a chart for uranium price?
Hi, I'm over at www.smartinvestment.ca Hit discussion. Coach's corner. Glad you liked my posts. I was double posting here and there. Got to be a bit too much.
Good stuff, thanks.
HI M, its www.smartinvestment.ca just hit discussion for Coach's corner. I posted a chart on IUC there today. Plus my daily ewave on the hui. Is NCR a uranium explorer? Looks like its been moving but its chart doesn't appear too bullish right at the moment. UEX.to, JNN.v, IUC.to, are all jumping out of triangles.
Hi, Sure anyone can post. I've been posting mostly at www.smartinvestment.ca lately. Bought a uranium stock today IUC.TO, very bullish charts on the uranium stocks IMO.
I agree, its possible that we will end this correction this week or at least this part of the correction (if we continue up into wave D of a triangle is still to be seen). From my post at www.smartinvestment.ca
Looking for a terminal c wave to finish the correction. See chart below. The targets I have and how I derived them:
I'm basing my targets on the possibility of a terminal and fib ratios with the large A finishing at either 163.8 or 180 and to a smaller degree on the move down from 244.9 (meaning wave a, if a triangle was made for wave b, still haven't check the fibs on this possible triangle). So the numbers I have range between 196 and 198. These I calculated from large A (end 163.8) x 0.50= 197.5, large A (end 180) x 0.618 = 196.4 and small a wave x 0.50=197.9 (this makes for an exceptionally small c wave but because of the proposed terminal nature of this wave I think it has some logic to it). So, a possible scenario is wave iii holds at 200, wave iv up and overlaps wave ii (as the nature of a terminal) and we could get a "false break" of the resulting diagonal to give wave v ending in the range of the fib targets. This works as well with the oversold nature of the HUI. Time will tell how this plays out. Should be "c" beside "ii" in the chart.
I know the HUI is more oversold based on the cci than anytime in the last 3 years so a bounce is due. Golden star is my biggest holding (overweight) and I agree the bottom could be 4.10 (CAN) although it may move laterally in a small triangle. I bought yesterday at the open (4.22). This chart here suggests the HUI could sell off more http://www.smallinvestors.com/gold/GoldMOSC.htm Also this is my count (below) on the current wave (could have made 3 of a 5 wave down move or done). Another consideration is that the HUI made a terminal finished at 244.94 and one count I have suggested it started at 180. Terminals can retrace the entire move (below the first chart). Alternatively, If the HUI makes a large multimonth (since 258 high) triangle here the terminal may not play out as these waves usually don't have the power in triangles. So time will tell how this plays out. Other charts at www.smartinvestment.ca.
I think there's a possibility we could go to 180 on this move. I have posted a bunch of charts tonite at www.smartinvestment.ca I usually double post here. But I will post here less frequently. Its a good site so I hope you will join us there as we can use more people into technical analysis. I tend to forget the more traditional technical analysis since I began ewaving which isn't always good.
HUI. This is my count. I took some downtime this weekend and I haven't spent a whole lot of time on this. I'm not sure of the count on this down wave but I believe that its part of an abc flat, so I based its possible length on the a wave which was 6.67 points with b finishing at either 216.20 or 216.50 or thereabouts (I'll use 216.5 for my calculations). At 1.618 x a this gives 205.7, if c elongates as I expect it might, 2.618 x a gives 199.0. Can the hui go lower than this, possibly. I'll post more tomorrow.
The triangle did not play out and instead I think the HUI made an ABC=B wave and I suspect it may make a triangle here, currently in C or perhaps finished C. Not sure if there is a full day of trading tomorrow in US markets but tomorrow is the 17th day I think of this horizontal move (Y, in my count) which makes the 2.618 (or close to it) fib ratio with W (see previous posts). So, its possible tomorrow could be the end this correction but in this case not with the triangle it appears. The alternate count would be in play in that case. The HUI has been flirting with the 214.9 number which is the number I calculate which would give this entire down wave a minimum 38.2% (and fib) of the large A wave down from 258 if it ended in August (at 180) as a small triangle (see old posts on this). However, I never was able to look at that small potential triangle in July-August on shorter duration charts except for one of David Petch's charts which wasn't the best chart to look at. I have been waiting to see if this correction would end at or near that number. Possibly the HUI could make a quick d wave and finish with an e wave at this number tomorrow. Time will tell how this plays out. Have about 5% cash at the moment so hoping for good things.
Some individual stock charts look like they are making larger triangles (to hopefully complete their corrections), for instance MAE I think is in a d wave and could take off to about 1.70 at anytime (have some). I only took a quick look at QGX and don't have a full count on it, but it also looks like it could be in a d wave (don't have any).
Inverted USD: If this is the true count (?) the next wave could be as much or more than wave 1 multiplied by 2.618. A stand alone triangle (I did not check its internal ratios) also suggests a 4th wave but the fact it falls in a parallel channel with the rest of the movement from "e" and the corrective-like waves that made much of this wave after 1 as shown suggests that it could all be a running wave 2. Note there appears to be a small thrust out of this "triangle" and it also showed a post-thrust correction right at the apex which supports this count IMO (although its reliability is not high as I haven't examined these waves on 10 minute charts). If this count is in play we should see the USD jump the bottom channel and probably jump the top channel as well. In that case the gold stocks may jump a few channels as well. I can remember a day (I think in 1999) when my PM mutual fund was down about 20-25% and in one day was in the black but only for that day as I recall (lesson: take profits on such a move if it occurs). Bought back some GSC today.
Hi financialadvisor, I know Prechter is bearish on gold in the intermediate term expecting it to make a new low to 200 or such and then start its bull move. I have also seen the counts from those who think the dollar is going to stage an upturn for 1-2 years. I have posted that dollar count along side my count and I think my count is more logical in an ewave sense. I tend to follow Alf Field http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/fieldndx.html and David Petch, although I rely more on my counts since reading Neely's book "Mastering Elliot Wave" which I highly recommend (and which I confess I must study more). Neely has included extensions of Elliot's work. Check Zoran Gayer chart where he has Prechter's (and a bad Neely) calls on the Dow, you will see Prechter isn't infallible. http://www.safehaven.com/pdf/121904gayer.pdf. Nevertheless, I try to take an objective view and consider bearish calls for gold, however, I rarely look at or post on gold itself, more the dollar and of course the HUI and individual gold stocks more but I do post bearish alternatives for the HUI and gold stocks if I think they may be right or make logical sense. I only consider myself a student of Elliot wave theory (maybe a graduate student).
HUI. Two charts. Today's action invalidated the triangle as drawn. So it is possible that we are still in c of the triangle or c completed today with a small triangle. There's also a small probability IMO that the correction has completed as in the second chart. An immediate move up taking out the orange circled x wave (or b wave in the first chart) would suggest the rally has begun. However, the HUI has been in this horizontal move for 15 days. Here (2nd chart) Y=15 days and W=6.5, for a ratio of 2.31 and a better ratio occurs at 17 days (2.615, close to 2.618 fib number). My preference is for the counts in the first chart and that's what I will discuss. The question is whether the move today was a triangle (starting with the immediate down move as the "a" wave). If it is, the down wave should be over. I looked at the ratios of waves c/a (0.496, =0.5), d/e (0.503 =0.5) and d/b (0.636, close to 0.618), so they actually look quite good as they approximate fib ratios. However, I think there is a still a possibility that this is just a b wave making a flat and that the late day move is the c wave of this b wave and another move down in a c wave could occur.
Still looking for d of this potential triangle to finish. It may have finished at today's high, however this would make d=.41 of b. Two logical places for it to finish are at ~219 and ~220.6 which gives this wave a fib ratio of .382 and .50, respectively with wave b. A break above the orange line says this isn't a triangle as drawn as d would be greater than c. Still would like to see the triangle finish with an e wave at ~215. The e wave could also make a small triangle which could extend the time of this wave by several days. The dollar made a new low which is bearish for the intermediate term, in the short term it may still be able to put in an irregular flat, to do so it needs to put in an impulse up here. If it makes a small triangle here instead without dropping further, I would consider this a kind of muted running 2 correction as it will finish close to where wave 1 finished.
Inverted USD: the USD is in a new parallel channel. The count in green is my preferred count. This is an unusual count because I have retained the running 2 correction. This is not a "logical" count because with a running 2 correction one should see a subsequent large impulsive wave (often 2.618x the previous impulse). This was not observed, so why maintain the running 2 correction? I have 2 reasons, one is that the structure resembles a running 2 correction with its overlapping waves and second, there was almost certainly intervention in the markets on Dec 8th. Instead of a 5th wave of 1, this should have been, based on a running correction, a minor wave 1 of a larger third wave, IMO. So the USD is in an "illogical" count (again IMO and interpretation). In a way it doesn't matter as either way (if we place wave ii at the orange circled count), it doesn't change the count as this wave (1) is finished, but I think it could influence subsequent waves.
The subsequent move up to 83.18 did look like a possible impulsive move to me suggesting that a possible zigzag could occur here. But since, the USD has retraced 82.8% of this wave. This could be bad news for ellioticians that expect the down move was over for the dollar. For a good impulsive move one does not want to see more than a 61.8% retrace. So what can the dollar do here? IMO not much, I think it could make a flat and finish a c wave at around 83.18 (but probably not before it shows a little more weakness) or an elongated flat (higher). My preferred count has a wxy forming for a wave 2 complete at around these levels. The reason being is that I think the aborted impulse following the running 2 correction (again not a logical count) will influence this wave. It is even possible that wave 2 will morph into a running correction as a kind of delayed move. A lot of this is speculation on my part but it has a logic to it, if the USD had its large impulse aborted by intervention.
Some ellioticians expect that downtrend in the USD is over and the dollar will now correct the downtrend for 1 to 2 years. What I want to note here is that the recent impulse down to 80.91 does not appear to have made a typical terminal wave with the kind of rounding bottom which could be expected. Is this an absolute requirement for the end of a move? I don't think so, but a typical terminal impulse as defined by Neely is what one should be alert to, to signal an end to the USD's fall since at some time in the future it will post a significant correction, although I expect this will be sometime away.
Over this bull market
These 4 seem to track best:
http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?$HUI,GG,PDG,GLG,NEM
Of those 4 these 3 are best:
http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?$HUI,PDG,GLG,NEM
Still looking for this count to play out and also looking for a Fib time relationship between W and Y. Perhaps 1:2? Time will tell if this is the right count, still need to make a larger d wave here for this count IMO. If this triangle works out like it think it might now then the c wave will be a short wave and the bottom line is drawn from a to e.
HUI could finish this correction as early as tommorrow, if the orange count (preferred count) is in play. The green count is still possible IMO and this wave since X could be forming a complex "a" wave of a triangle.
My disciple, I walk on water don't you know?
The HUI is putting in corrective waves here IMO. I'll post more later tonight if I have the time to.
HUI count: HUI could have completed a zigzag down to 213.86 or a 1-2-3 count. The subsequent upmove is either a, x, or 4.
For bullish counts, if we break below the low of a, likely the green count (see previous post) is in play as a C wave is rarely larger than B in a triangle. If the HUI holds above the low of a, chances are the HUI is making C. If not, an A wave is being made.
HUI, bigger picture. The red line at 204 is the base of the terminal (where it started) IMO. I think if the HUI is making a triangle the terminal may not have the same power as it would normally have (need to check if Neely has something specific to say on this for triangles, but I believe he says that in triangles waves don't have the same power). Normally a terminal is totally retraced in less than 1/2 the time it is formed and a new high is not made for I believe 2x the time it took to form (will check that too).
In the previous chart, the blue count could also follow the green count of the last 2 days if this is an "a" wave of a flat. A "c" wave is rarely the longest wave of a triangle but it is still a possibility as the b wave in my count is longer than the a wave. But it should not be much longer than the b wave.
Well at least my charts are getting more colorful if not predictive in the very ST. However, I don't worry too much about the very ST as long as the count suggests we could be on the right track and I still prefer the blue count. I think the blue count is an acceptable count. One thing to remember the market always seems to take its own sweet time even when its in a hurry. Still looking for a triangle to complete the larger C wave. Note that the terminal base (at 204 IMO) has still not been taken out, this is bullish I think. If 204 is taken out, it is necessary to count the days taken for the terminal to be made and how many it took to take it out (if it took over 1/2 as long to take it out, then its not acting like a terminal and the longer it fails to take it out the more likely the HUI is making a larger triangle here IMO). The green count is a variation of the blue with c ending at the low, by the green count we would only be making the first wave of the proposed triangle. The orange count is the bearish count (in 3 of a large C down) but I don't think it fits well here.
ZIGZAGS: I just want to make a note here on zigzags. I think I stated that in a zigzag that C can't be longer than 1.618 x A (I believe I read this off of one of Petch's graphs when he was counting the waves up in August). This is true for a normal zigzag but I read last night in Neely's book that elongated zigzags can occur in which the C wave is longer than this. But they only occur in the early stages of certain types of contracting triangles (eg., complex polywave) or higher or the late stages of some expanding triangles.
Also one can have a truncated zigzag where C is between 38.2 and 61.8% of A (the small C shows counter trend strength). This is the rarest of all zigzags.
Of all the zigzags, Neely says, the elongated zigzag with its oversized C wave is the best imitator of impulsive behavior (meaning these are most likely to have people making mistaken 1-2-3 [out of 5] counts). Neely comments: "This makes them very difficult to recognize and dangerous to assume while they are unfolding. Usually they can only be confirmed after the fact."
HUI count: I spent considerable time looking at today's top to determine where the impulse ended as I was worried the HUI was starting another impulse in the opposite direction which would not be good as it probably would indicate that my bullish count was wrong (BTW, when I look at these small waves I sometimes expand the graph as much as 500x in paint). I think, however that this impulse finished short of the today's high and then made a small flat (in yellow) as part of a WXY correction which should probably finish in the first hour of tomorrow's trading (should see a sideways movement) and then up in another impulse. Anyway, this is what should occur if my count is correct. Time will tell. I bought some Eldorado Gold today to replace my CLG (did not do a full count on ELD but it has been following the HUI quite closely although with more volatility, so I'm hoping if the HUI continues up it will maintain its bullish correlation with the index). The HUI will probably need to make a double zigzag to get up near the B wave at 245 to make a D wave of the large triangle.
HUI: I'm going to assume that the larger wave C finished yesterday with a running flat (instead of a triangle). So this has C finishing at ~214 which is about 39.4% of wave A (with the purple count) a little larger than the 38.2% fib relationship. By this count then, the HUI is probably making the A wave of a potential zigzag which when completed should take this wave to near where B finished (~245). I expect this will complete the D wave of the larger triangle. If 245 is taken out in an impulsive fashion instead, this event would be more bullish at least ST and I will review that possibility.
HUI count: As you know I am looking for a small triangle to be put in here before going up and we may have finished the c wave of this small triangle, actually I might prefer if it didn't finish here as it may increase the probabilities that the larger C wave will end such that C is 38.2% of A. For a reliable triangle the HUI needs to have a fib relationship between alternating waves such as A and C and between B and D. The small c wave finished at 214 close to the number needed for the count in purple but too high for the count in blue. However, if the small c is finished, the e wave could still finish in good shape at just above this number (the exact number is 214.9 to give exactly C=.382 of A.) There is still a chance I think that Petch's count could still be in play, but I haven't tried to see if it fits here. I haven't examined every wave put in over the last year and certainly not on ten minute charts. But I think these counts may fit and I will certainly tell you how these counts are proceeding (whether they are working out in a bullish fashion or not).
HUI: If my count is right, it should go up once the e wave of this proposed triangle is finished (very soon). Hope I'm right about this. I made some alterations: the triangle in the B wave fits better as shown.
HUI: Two possibilities here I think as shown on the chart. A running 2 might be more likely for the orange count (lower 2). I expect a zigzag to form here. The maximum target for the current wave depending on the count in play is ~223.50 to ~225. The HUI should then either make an x wave (down) and continue up (possibily to form a double zigzag) or make a c wave down for the small triangle (d and e to follow).
Chart symmetry. I found this article very interesting. Fibonacci rules again.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/joubert120704.html
HUI: Two charts.
Foreshadowing.
HUI: I looked at a bearish count and by that count the HUI would be in 3 of C. However as these are likely to pop up everywhere, I am only posting the bullish count which is my preferred count. This bullish count has some "odd" things about it. What I think the HUI will make here is a "double zigzag" (completed) and a triangle. The obvious position for b in the second zigzag based on the channel is at 225, this is an alternative position for it in my count, however it does not seem to fit in terms of its internal waves, certainly not as well as the location at where I have it on the chart. However, placement of the b where I have it changes this wave to a kind of "running zigzag" (the description of this modern wave pattern I have does not tell me whether c can be less than .618 of a, the shorter limit of a zigzag). Here the c wave is shorter. This says to me that the market may have been ready to conclude its correction at this point and go up. The dollar also seemed poised to accelerate its decline. It also appears we had some intervention on Wednesday that changed that since with the subsequent move the HUI broke the bottom of the channel, but did not take out 204 which is the beginning of the terminal IMO. This results in an A wave of a proposed triangle which I expect to finish the correction. So I think that the HUI is stronger than it first appears. I need to make some measurements based on the end of the terminal which I now have at 244.94 and see how things fit in the larger scheme of things. The triangle if it forms as I expect will finish above 207.77.
USD ewave count: Several possibilities here. My preference is for the purple count with the blue triangle. The red count with red triangle (same downtrending top line as blue triangle) is what I expect some ellioticians believe (Prechterites: the USD has finished its correction). However, I don't think the red count is as logical as the purple count. So, I think this is the post-thrust correction and the thrust has completed (with a larger degree wave 1). The dollar must make a post thrust correction within the apex time period (orange line) if this is a non-limiting triangle. So I expect the USD to correct up (probably in a larger degree wave 2 to the blue 2 area or about 85, possibily to the 87 area where the triangle poses very strong resistance) before sliding down again in a wave 3. The other possibility is the blue count is still in play and wave 4 (but not making a green triangle as I have indicated) is very near completion. There appears to be a little time left to make a quick 5 in this count before a post-thrust correction, although this is doubtful.
Sold all my Cumberland. Looks like I read the triangle wrong and there may (or may not) be more weakness in it. Good fundamental play but might drop suddenly I think. Need to check the charts in more detail. Will deploy my funds elsewhere for now.
HUI: I examined the waves and it appears that it is the case (see previous post). The HUI has probably finished wave B of the small triangle, if the A wave is the largest which it is at the moment, then a good target for C of the small triangle is 210 and D at 214. So likely the HUI made its low here and should soon go up in a D wave of the large multimonth triangle if my count is right. Since tomorrow is likely down for at least part of the day, I may pick up some juniors at my bid price. Time will tell.
Hold everything. I will post a chart tonight. May make a big difference to what will occur here!
No chart, but I think I have discovered the nature of the top. The third finger sticking out rather crudely at the top is iii, the abc is iv, and v is the thumb. Up yours too.
So yes I think the HUI will go down again and I'm betting this will be an A wave of a triangle. The triangle should finish off a triple combination if I'm right. Today, an x wave probably completed. The A wave is often the most violent wave of the triangle. The triangle could take some time to finish. If this is the right count the HUI should come out of the triangle up in a D wave. If not, well, have a nice christmas.
Just to correct my last posted chart, what I meant to say is that at 189.6, the "C" wave reaches 61.8% of the size of "A."
No chart tonight just some comments.
I will trust my own counts more from now on, looked like a terminal, smelled like a terminal. But I did "OK" as I sold my stocks that looked like they had terminals (K, IMG, NGX) and raised some cash, and I have been buying back slowly, although perhaps some powder is still in order.
The last down wave may not have needed to take out the base of the terminal (at ~204 IMO) because its forming a C wave of large multimonth triangle and these waves don't have the same power to them in a triangle (it stopped at 1.618 of the a wave which is necessary for a zigzag). Anyway, I don't think this is a 5 down count from the top. It could be a 5 down of course if it were making a flat, but in that case the base of the terminal should have been taken out with that last wave IMO, instead I count a truncated 5 which I think fits (better now after I looked again at the charts) and the first wave from the bottom counts as a 3 count IMO which fits as a 4th wave. Now we could maybe make an X wave up here and perhaps down into a small triangle or a zigzag of a corrective D wave up. Right now, the current wave could make a small A-B-C (zigzag) or 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 (for a 5 count) of a larger A wave up (so I don't know if we are in a D yet or totally sure of this count, but it fits IMO). I could see us going down further if we put a triangle on the end of this double zigzag and one of its legs could hit the trendline at 189 or even break it a little bit as this is I expect a part of a large multimonth 4th wave triangle (189 is actually a logical place for the C wave of this triangle to finish at 61.8% of the size of the large A wave down into April). So I expect we could have some more downside based on that. The alternate waves in a triangle should make either a 38.2, 50 or 61.8 or some other fib to be a good and honest triangle. At 207.77 this wave from the top is only 42.6% of wave "A" made in April. Haven't look at any bear counts yet, but so far the waves seems to fit a "bullish" scenario, even though my portfolio has suffered (timing is everything). This action could take longer than I thought. Dollar's move did not confirm a running 2 count, it could be in a 4th wave of 5 down or making its post thrust correction now. But expect the unexpected (a move up would be unexpected if the dollar moves up, for instance, look for relative strength as a turning point).
LT chart of HUI: