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Unless there is some magic news that no one forsees, it will not be $4 before conference call. What piece of news will come out that will magically make this company worth 80% more overnight?
SIRI is not a value play, it is not a dividend stock. There is very little to short squeeze out of here. It will gradually rise as the debt is lowered and the company is more and more profitable.
If for some reason it does get crazy and pops to $4 a share, I would be selling, if all else is the same. Short term pops are very bad for long term prices.
Keep in mind, it is already trading at over 43 times forward earnings, and no dividends to pay back shareholders. Its debt is massive.
Personally, I am hopeful for the company long term. I enjoy sirius in my car, however my interests in this stock right now are purely because all stars have aligned again and I see it going up to say $2.75 or so in the short term prior to earnings.
It is no longer a $.15 cent speculative stock. It is a $2.50 tech stock just becoming profitable, in a market full of competition and has a horrific capital structure. The shares have been diluted soooo much that the relatively low stock price makes it seen "cheap". In reality, Berkshire Hathaway A at $113,000 a share is cheaper than Siri. It is only trading at 14 times forward earnings.
So the idea of Sirius going from $2.50 a share to $25 a share in a short time is ludicrous. Their business has to be ten times as big. Same thing with jumping from $2.50 to $4.
If you want a good investment, call your advisor and pick up some pharmaceuticals, or others that are trading below a 10 PE multiple, and are paying you a 5% dividend.
Will be listing those on my forum soon.
Thats the way it seems to be.
Buy some to hold long term, and swing trade the rest.
As per my morningstar office, current forward pe is 43. As profits go up, PE will come down.
$3 by year end is feasible. Nothing is preventing this from popping above, but at that point, wise to sell and wait for dip... or if you are in this long term, dollar cost average into it.
but once again, lets not confuse fundamentals with trading behavior.
Look at Pandora, market cap of 2.8 billion, yet will not be profitable nor has a defined source of revenue to speak of.
by CC? What is CC?
I think it can stabilize around $3 by year end. Keep in mind, there is still a ton of debt.
Speaking of Pandora vs Siri....
Great article out there discussing the fundamentals.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/finance/story/5283469/buy-sirius-xm-or-pandora-sirius-xm-radio-nasdaq-siri-and-pandora-media-nyse-p
Obviously there was profit taking.
Day traders dont care about the stock, they care about the movement.
You were closing out your week and taking profits for the day. No daytrader wants to be stuck with a stock at the end of the day, much less end of the week.
Day traders will not be driving the stock longer term. The institutional holders do.
Your foundation is solid, however I think you are jumping the gun in both cases...
Buying when it hits oversold, and selling when it hits overbought. I was caught in those traps quite a few times... goes back to the fact that just because it is oversold does not mean it cannot be sold even further. Same thing on upside. On numerous occassions I was out of positions just when it hit overbought, yet to see it go up another 30% or more while being overbought. Typically when a stock hits those overbought or oversold, that is just the beginning of the move.
the double top was easy to tell, it was on much weaker volume, the higher highs were on less and less volume.
If you look at my chart, you can see the higher high was made already after the MACD turned negative, the money flow was weak and turning negative. The top was made with money flowing out.
If you followed the BB envelopes, you would of been out at about $2.20. Then another buy back in at $2.16 as confirmation of new uptrend.
Completely opposite of the situation we have now.
The BB are a set of bands, at 1 and 2 standard deviation units.
The way I use them, and from those from whom I learned, a buy signal is when the stock closes at in the top envelope. When it does, it is a buy signal, and you hold it as long as it stays in the top two. When it breaks down and closes into the third envelope, I would probably sell there.
When it closes in the bottom envelope, it is a sell signal, or short.
Take a look at the chart, you will see it.
Personally, I use the BB envelopes in conjunction with the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow), as well as the MACD to see the momentum. I use RSI as confirmation.
I dont usually follow other indicators, so don't do the wedges, head shoulders, etc. This works for me.
Dont over-analyze because if you do, you will find in a chart anything you want to find. Those 4 indicators, to me, give me a good enough probability. Beyond that, I control the risk by buying options instead of equity, or use it in a covered call, or calendar spread position. Only Siri for me right now is completely unhedged long options.
With all the stars aligning... this should be a great ride. I would not be surprised if we close over $2.40 today. Options action at $2.50 for next month seems like most expecting it to end up around there next month.
I am new to the board, so excuse me if this was covered, but what is your position in SIRI? Are you short? Or just a put holder?
Surely going out of the way to scream for others to sell, when quite frankly, the vast majority of the people on here, and my institutional fund guys dont see it your way. So full disclosure?
As with any chart, there are multiple ways you can read it, however the way siri is behaving now, purely from a technical perspective, you cannot really argue about it. The short term trend is absolutely up. Obviously you can scream it is overbought, which it will soon be, however just because it is overbought does not mean it will go down today, tomorrow, or anyday after. But it will go down at some point in the future.
The market can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. Much like you dont want to catch a falling knife, going short on a stock that is busting through all resistance is just as stupid.
BB envelopes scream buy, there is money flowing into the stock on higher volume, and the MACD regression is bullish. Next confirmation will be the overbought RSI. I would keep holding until the RSI then falls below 75 or so to confirm it, on lower volume.
These are just pure technicals, we are not even opening up the fundamental story which is as optimistic.
I bought a ton of long $2 calls expiring july for about $.08. Sold little less than half a few days ago to lock in my double, and let the rest ride. Was going to sell today to close out my position, but in light of everything, rolled it out another month. Bought $2 Aug calls for $.33 and gee, already in the money.
I think we should all disclose our holdings before blabbing. =P
Here is my chart. Personally, I think it is just a start to the upside.
If you are trading the overbought, you would typically sell once the RSI corrects and drops again from overbought.... as a signal of a trend reversal, however... selling it just because it signaled overbought, you are jumping the gun.
insert-text-here
Really thinking it will double before then? Or just looking for spike?
i just unloaded half my position to lock in the double... letting profits ride.
I can see it bounce to $84 in the short term.... but still bullish, starting to get overbought, but momentum to the upside.
SIRI Jul $2 options trading with no premium.
Stock at $2.19-$2.20
Bid/Ask $.19 - $.20
Picked some up yesterday, woot woot. =) But right now, no premium.
If someone actually put in a sizeable trade order, for say a few hundred thousand...this stock would break out. But... it is still quiet. no big deal. would rather it go up slowly then shoot through the moon (which it may if taken over or wins the prize)
Latest News
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704047104576082240517593856.html
Borders Group Inc. is continuing talks to a secure a $500 million credit line and has hired bankruptcy and restructuring lawyers, said people familiar with the matter.
Borders has chosen law firm Kasowitz, Benson, Torres & Friedman to advise on its current refinancing efforts, these people said. Kasowitz's instructions are to keep the company out of bankruptcy court, one of these people said.
Getty Images
A Borders employee unloads copies of Former U.S. President George W. Bush's new memoir 'Decision Points.'
To that end, Kasowitz met Thursday with publishers to pitch them on a plan to defer payments and is talking with GE Capital about providing a new revolving credit facility that would replace existing debt, this person said.
The new credit line would provide about $500 million in fresh capital and perhaps more, this person said, allowing Borders to repay some $220 million in current outstanding senior debt. Borders hopes the new financing can provide a bridge for the company over the next six to 12 months while it rearranges its business, this person said.
Representatives for Borders and GE Capital declined to comment.
Several major publishers remain unconvinced about the proposed refinancing after hearing more details about the plan from Borders and its advisors this week. It is a sign that the impasse between the nation's second largest bookstore chain and some of its suppliers is likely to continue.
"Nothing has changed," said one publishing executive. "There will be further discussions between experts representing both sides, but the question is why would you extend further credit if you don't have confidence in their strategic plan going forward? However, it's still a very fluid situation."
The nation's second largest bookstore chain halted payments to key publishers and distributors in December, and some publishers have stopped shipping books as a result.
The retailer continues to receive new books from a key supplier, Ingram Content Group, a unit of closely held Ingram Industries Inc. based in Nashville, Tenn., that handles titles from a wide variety of publishing houses.
A second publisher said they are evaluating the various alternatives. "It's a negotiation," said this person. "If the refinancing succeeds, Borders will have more cash and it will put them in a position to do more building on their membership program, which is off to a good start."
"It's hard to tell what will happen at this point," added this publisher. "None of the alternatives are great."
Borders is asking vendors to defer payments in exchange for an interest-bearing promissory note of about three years in duration.
Under the plan, the notes would be secured by Borders collateral, one of the people familiar with the matter said, though the details were still being worked out.
GE wants less money going out the door to publishers if it provides new financing for Borders, one of the people familiar this person said. The person said GE wants publishers to show "shared sacrifice."
Borders hopes to get the multi-layered deal—new financing from GE and agreements from publishers to defer payments for interest-bearing notes—by early February, this person said.
Kasowitz has been advising Borders for some time, and joins restructuring advisers from investment bank Jefferies & Co. as those in talks with the company about rearranging its finances. Kasowitz wouldn't prepare a bankruptcy filing for Borders except under a worst-case scenario, the person said.
While Borders has yet to win over publishers, discussions between the two sides will continue. One area of negotiation: the terms of the interest-bearing note. At Thursday's meeting, publishers say a possible sweetener was floated to provide them with collateral for the note. Details of what form that collateral might take could not be learned.
Almost 16 mil shares traded. AVerage volume 4.5 lol. Something is in the works.
Glad to have Bill Akman on the long side with us. =)
It has been in the works for a week.
Check nyt article from last night.
Last night, borders laid off alot of management, the day before they shut down one out of three distribution centers.
I believe I read somewhere that an announcement is expected by tonight. Worst case... monday.
Bought some lottery tickets. 25 calls Jan $1 for .$15. Only 10 cents out of the money.
Borders close to securing refinancing - New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/14/business/media/14borders.html?src=busln
In a meeting with publishers on Thursday, Borders laid out a more detailed proposal for moving the troubled company forward, including asking publishers to provide money for a large portion of the company’s debt as a loan, according to people briefed on the matter.
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Borders executives told publishers that they were close to securing refinancing from GE Capital and other lenders, these people said, speaking only on condition of anonymity, and that the company intended to reduce costs, improve liquidity and expand marketing efforts, as well as sell some assets.
Thursday’s talks were the latest between Borders and major book publishers that began in late December, when Borders abruptly told some publishers and distributors that it would delay payments. The company had a $74.4 million loss in its third quarter.
Last week, Borders asked publishers to designate a legal adviser to represent them in talks. At the meeting Thursday, publishers were represented by Lowenstein Sandler, a law firm, and Alvarez & Marsal, a consulting firm.
One publisher said Thursday that the plan laid out by Borders was not a convincing strategy for turning around the company.
Mary Davis, a spokeswoman for Borders, declined to comment directly on the meeting, but said in an e-mail, “Borders is focused on putting its refinancing in place as part of its overall effort to transform the Borders brand.”
Ms. Davis also said 15 managerial positions within the company were eliminated on Thursday.
I really think the latest moves to close more stores and distribution centers are a great move.... before buying out Barnes Noble.
I often frequent borders stores and the new stores are by far better than the dingy old BKS stores.
Borders To Offer New Financing Plan; Publishers Suspend Book Shipments
by Calvin Reid and Jim Milliot
Jan 03, 2011
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In the wake of the Borders Group announcement that it is suspending payments to some publishers, at least one major New York City house has suspended shipping titles to the retail chain. While it has been reported that academic publisher Rowman and Littlefield has also stopped making shipments to the retailer, the house is distributed by the National Book Network, which has suspended shipments to Borders for all of its distribution clients. While it is unclear how many publishers have suspended shipments to the troubled retail chain, the situation remains fluid. PW has learned that Borders has located a new source of financing and a group of Borders executives will be in New York City this week to present the plan to publishers.
While Borders declined to comment specifically on the suspension of shipments, spokesperson Mary Davis confirmed that Borders representatives would be in New York and “in discussions regarding the refinancing of existing senior credit facilities.” According to sources, a contingent of Borders executives will be in New York to discuss a new refinancing plan that includes new money from a new bank. However the new financing comes with a new set of demands, according to the source, which will include publishers taking a note in exchange for the missed payment from Borders as well as a call for a bigger financial commitment to Border’s debt service from Bennett Lebow, the retail chain’s largest shareholder. Nevertheless, publishers appear willing to make a deal, although one house told PW, “it would have been nice if they told us they had a plan before they cut us off."
While Barnes & Noble reported that comp store sales rose 9.7% for the nine week’s ending Jan. 1, including record sales on Dec. 23, Borders is reeling from a continuing drop in sales--third quarter comp sales dropped 12.6%. Borders carries about $450 million in trade payables on its balance sheet. While the company has faced crises over its debt service in the past and managed to find financing, the current crisis looks to be Borders’ toughest challenge ever.
Smith 1911 Pro Series is awesome. =)
MGM Puts $12.50 Jan 11.
Bought 20. Looks to be reversing. Allot of the casino stocks looking the same. Will hope to get some volatility, and close them out for a profit.
Based on?
Already made some trades.
Bought at $.94, sold at a $1.00
BGP as a Swing, Borders Group
Bill Akman is proposing supporting the buyout of BKS. News came out last night that as part of restructuring debt, BGP will be suspending payments to some publishers. Stock is down 25% in after hours/ early market. Should make for a hell of a ride.
SWHC Calls
I am really liking the way the chart is coming together on this.
Purchased 100 Jan 11 $4 calls at $.05
Purchased 10 Mar 11 $3 calls at $.90
The largest firearms show is coming up in Vegas in Jan, right around options expiration. expecting good announcements.
Was just mentioned on cNBC
In that case, buy some guns and invest in SWHC and RGR. lol.
Ok, because it was a reply to my post. =P
REE?
Smith & Wesson does indeed have revenues. the profit this year was cut by one time charges and DoJ investigation. Company has been around for over 100 years.
Yes, they do have some potential long term issues, however there are by far, far worse choices. =P
Bought another 50 Jan 2011 $4 calls for $.05
SWHC Calls
I am really liking the way the chart is coming together on this.
Purchased 50 Jan 11 $4 calls at $.05
Purchased 10 Mar 11 $3 calls at $.90
The largest firearms show is coming up in Vegas in Jan, right around options expiration. expecting good announcements.
SWHC Calls
I am really liking the way the chart is coming together on this.
Purchased 50 Jan 11 $4 calls at $.05
Purchased 10 Mar 11 $3 calls at $.90
The largest firearms show is coming up in Vegas in Jan, right around options expiration. expecting good announcements.
SWHC Calls
I am really liking the way the chart is coming together on this.
Purchased 50 Jan 11 $4 calls at $.05
Purchased 10 Mar 11 $3 calls at $.90
The largest firearms show is coming up in Vegas in Jan, right around options expiration. expecting good announcements.
Just an update. I am really liking the way the chart is coming together on this.
Purchased 50 Jan 11 $4 calls at $.05
Purchased 10 Mar 11 $3 calls at $.90
The largest firearms show is coming up in Vegas in Jan, right around options expiration.
SWHC - Covered Call June 11
For the firearms enthusists.
I love this company, they are making a great product at a great price. They are turning around the company, and a good long term holding, either for a turnaround story, or a buy out.
Buy 1000 SWHC @ $3.85
Sell 10 June 2011 $4 calls @ $.40 to $.50.
$3500 or so out of pocket, $400 if it goes nowhere, and $650 or so if called away.
Alternatively... for those that can... consider writing a cash secured put. Jun 11's for $.50
Ah... Forex.
Just wanted to to update this. Forex went extremely well until it blew up on me. It was fairly easy to call the trend and get on the right side of it... I started I believe with $300 or so, and within a few weeks it was over $5k.
What blew up my own account... I was a bit leveraged, and there was a temporary spike overnight... when I woke up in the AM, I was extremly happy to see my call was correct, however came to login into the account and see that I was stopped out, and ended up being forced to take a huge loss. I was highly disappointed, especially since I had a fairly safe margin.
The issue with many forex shops, there is still very little oversight of the firms, almost as little as Credit Default Swaps. Meaning... if the fx firm says you were stopped out, there is little to no one you can plead with.
For that reason, got away from it.
Stocks, Bonds, Options.... I understand, and considering my past on Wall St... I feel I know the ins and outs of them...
Ooh, come to think of it... I can finally come out and say it.
I was a financial advisor/broker with UBS when the forum was started. =) So had access to great reports, and great colleagues, including former Options market makers helping me out with my thought patterns along the way.
I have since gone independent, and do these trades in my personal account, and a few friends/clients who want a tad more diversified approach. The vast majority is in managed money such as mutual funds, and third party money managers.