Wrong -- if you click "Add to Basket" you find out that there is a $56 delivery fee!!!

There seem to be two cardiologists out of 11 members.

http://www.fda.gov/advisorycommittees/committeesmeetingmaterials/drugs/endocrinologicandmetabolicdrugsadvisorycommittee/ucm096416.htm

Received latest results from quarterly blood test -- everything improved from three months ago.

TG 111, down from 156
LDL 70, down from 73
HDL 50, up from 46
non-HDL-C 92, down from 104

Have been on Vascepa since June, no insurance coverage but using coupon, will try to convince doctor to prescribe as prevention to CV events given my family history -- hopefully insurance will cover then.

Weekly scripts -- 4,720 (up 5% for the week)
New scripts -- 2,660 (up 8%)
Refills -- 2,060 (up 1.4%)

Slowly but surely gaining more market share vs Lovaza (up 1% for the week) and Niaspan (down 1.4%).

I think EPS will not get a lot of attention from company or analysts or investors -- much more important will be cash burn (which should improve in Q2 vs. Q1) with focus on how quickly the company will be break-even on cash-flow basis (hopefully first half of 2014).

The reported EPS for Q2 will not be affected by the issuance of new shares since that occurred in Q3.

They would have major problems with SEC if they had discussed such material news with institutional investors without filing 8k first.

DHA, not EPA, responsible for omega-3 prostate cancer risk, by Dr Nina Bailey

http://igennus.com/dha-not-epa-responsible-for-omega-3-prostate-cancer-risk-by-dr-nina-bailey/

The under-reporting is actually 23%. Symphony captures about 82% of total scripts. So to go from 82 to 100, you have to gross up the number by 23%.

I completely agree with Jesse and many other posters here -- JZ and management have done a great job so far, the asset is more valuable than a year ago, the stock price does not reflect that today but it will. I'm not selling anytime soon so I don't care about today's stock price.

Thanks for your reply -- I think your revenue per unit ($281) is unrealistically high.

If I take all the reported units for Q1 and divide that into reported Q1 revenue I get $246 per unit. Multiply that by 42,000 units and you get $10.3mm which is in the ballpark of what I think company will report.

Still a great result vs. average/median analyst estimate.

How did you get there BioChica? There have not been 13 weeks reported in Q2 yet -- my numbers (and estimates for last two weeks in June) take me to about $10mm.

Completely agree with you -- focusing on the fundamentals (script growth, patents, combo data, improving cash flow, Anchor) which are all heading in the right direction. Not focused on short-term pps since I'm not selling.

AZN made the decision to focus on small, bolt-on acquisitions rather than large, "disruptive" (their words) ones.

They look to spend a few hundreds of millions on each one. With that budget, they could only afford the third tier player.

If you go to an auto dealership with $15k, you come home with a Yugo and not with a BMW.

The graph is through March 2008.

That is an incredibly superficial and simplistic perspective -- the company had the same small w/w growth a month ago, and then growth accelerated. You don't realize that there is an underlying 5-week cycle to the data -- to match the monthly cycle of scripts.

The LONG thesis remains intact -- best efficacy and safety profile of any alternative, continued w/w growth even four months after launch, continued and growing user testimonials, continued migration to Tier 2, broader education to medical community, suppliers locked up, patents progressing, combo data to be released next month, Anchor on track. The company is ahead of pace for $10mm revenues this quarter and $100mm revenues this year.

Since I'm not planning to sell for a long while, the day-to-day price fluctuations are irrelevant to me.

Still ahead of pace to get to $10mm in revenues this quarter and $100mm in revenues for the year.

The primary responsibility is to manage the SEC reporting requirements -- typically a specialty in and of itself. FP&A is just an added responsibility but probably not primary one.

Why hasn't FDA said NO yet?

I think the comparables are data points four weeks apart from each other -- they approximate monthly activity for a segment of users.

So this week's Lovaza number was 98,408; four weeks prior, it was 98,929; four weeks prior to that it was 97,960 -- so, maybe peaked and now declining? We'll see the next data point for this sub-group in four weeks.

Thanks for your reply -- I was interested in reading the entire note to see what revenue expectations are built into their model and what other assumptions they're using at this time.

Could you please post a link to Citi's research note/report? Thank you.

The pattern, at least over the last few quarters, has been to have press release available right after the market closes at 4pm and then CC at 4:30pm. I expect the same on Thursday.

I agree ... pathetic numbers ... will push up stock price only 10% tomorrow.

My "back of the envelope" estimate is for $4.3mm in sales -- taking monthly numbers reported by Symphony, adjusting for under-counting (assuming Symphony captures 82% of total scripts), times $184 per script filled, and doubling that total to account for stocking.

There are two dimensions along which people evaluate these situations: 1) how good is the company/product; and 2) how good is the stock. At times, the assessments of these two elements are aligned -- you have good company/good stock or bad company/bad stock.

However, at times, there are discrepancies which last for a period and sometime for a long time. A good example is many internet stocks during the bubble of the late 90s -- many companies with laughable and implausible business plans receiving gigantic valuations -- case of bad company/good (hot) stock.

I believe that in Amarin's case, we now have the opposite -- good company (and product) but bad stock. Many have surmised as to why stock performance has been poor -- disappointment that there was no "get rich quick" B/O at end of last year, institutional inattention absent major catalysts, etc. etc. I don't have much to add to these hypotheses, but I know that in time this discrepancy will disappear -- either the company/product will fail and thus align with bad stock, or the stock will improve and align with good company/product.

So I pay much less attention to stock movement in the near term and much more so on company/product performance -- script sales/growth, patent approvals, Anchor sNDA, combo results, Tier 2 eapnsion, supplier sNDAs, user/doctor feedback, best results of any available product out there. Just about everything on this front is moving in a positive direction -- thus I believe that at some point the stock will align with that. I wish it were today (or yesterday) and it will not be tomorrow, but sometime in the medium term (by end of 2013) as long as the company continues to execute well.

You can use the spreadsheet that was posted by dealnay.

Using an assumption of 7.5% weekly growth, you get to $100mm in sales for 2013. And that does NOT take into account the stocking benefit to Amarin's sales (if you don't understand that, you can read my previous post today on the subject). With stocking, we're well north of $100mm and possibly north of $150mm.

Do you care to put a number on what you think Q1 revenues will be and your basis for computing it? Without that, your statement is just a meaningless and unfounded opinion.

I think there is a phenomenon that so far has been completely overlooked, and that is the stocking "effect." Amarin's sales are not based on scripts filled but rather shipments to wholesalers/distributors. They in turn need to keep on hand enough supply to fill anticipated future demand. I'll use an example to illustrate this phenomenon.

Let's assume that in March a total of 10,000 scripts were filled and that wholesalers want to have on hand enough Vascepa to satisfy demand equal to sales in prior 30 days. So at end of March, they would have 10,000 units on hand. Let's assume that in April a total of 15,000 scripts are filled -- this also means that stocking levels at the end of April would have grown to 15,000 units. Amarin's sales for April would be their shipments to wholesalers, that is 20,000 units in this example -- 15,000 scripts filled plus 5,000 extra units to increase the stock-on-hand required to meet the growing demand.

If they keep on hand 15 days worth of demand instead of 30, the stocking "benefit" would be less -- 2,500 extra units to take inventory levels from 5,000 to 7,500 -- lower but still significant.

As long as Vascepa scripts continue to growth, Amarin's sales performance will continue to be magnified by the stocking effect. I believe that any sales estimates that are based only on reported scripts (whether accurate or not from Symphony/IMS) are under-estimating revenues that the company will report for the quarter.

In a subsequent post, I will explore why I believe that the growth trajectory has a very long way to go before it flattens out.

That's not a cash-flow analysis -- it's just a list of expenses. Where is the revenue? I estimate that they will have $100-150mm in revenues for 2012. For COGS, a lot was already accounted for as R&D expense since they had to expense supplies from API providers until their respective sNDAs were approved.

So the real question is not just what the expense level is but rather how their total cash position will change over the course of the year and whether the $250mm they had at the beginning of the year will be depleted or not by the end of 2013.

Your analysis so far falls very far short of backing up your statement that "cash-flow sucks."

Fair enough ... thank you for your comment/feedback.

I don't know much about patent strength and won't comment on that. However, I believe that you are drawing the wrong conclusion from the fact that OB patents have same expiration date.

After patent approval, patent expiration date is set to be so many years after date of submission of original patent application. So if many patents have expiration date, it's not because they are related but rather because their applications were submitted at the same time.

In a transaction situation, the total shares will be around 187mm.

There are about 150mm outstanding now; then about 20mm outstanding options/warrants which takes the number to 170mm fully diluted.

However, they also have outstanding convertible debt -- at the option of holders, the debt can be converted into total of 17mm shares. If BO happens, let's say, at $20/share, debt holders will definitely convert.

Get your facts straight -- there are nine directors today, two of them will serve until the July meeting (three months from now) and then resign afterwards. As Kay indicated, JZ is the only insider -- so there are plenty of independent voices on the board today.

The process of replacing board members is not an immediate one -- the board has a Nominating Committee which is charged with identifying, evaluating, recruiting and presenting to the board suitable candidates. Since there will not be an opening for another three months, there is no need for having replacements in place today.

Just to be clear -- I am NOT concerned about board independence. I have read the 8k and nothing in it says that the resigning directors will not be replaced.

I have been following you here as well as on StockTwits -- in both locations you seem to be soft-bashing Amarin -- trying to create controversies with not many facts in hands but a lot of innuendos.

You make it sound like they have no plans to replace the resigning directors but rather shrink the board size instead. Do you know that to be a fact? It would be highly unusual and subject to vote by shareholders in any case.

It seems to me that you are trying to create a controversy at all costs -- either over JZ being board member or size of board or both.

For accepted sNDAs, the PDUFA date is set within 10 months from the date of sNDA submission. So, assuming the Anchor sNDA is accepted, the PDUFA date will be sometime in December since the submittal happened in late February. It could be sooner if FDA accepts it for early/priority decision (unlikely, but possible).

Again, you keep repeating the same wrong argument -- that Amarin is trying to reach and educate a very large segment of doctors perscribing Lovaza -- they are NOT.

They have always stated that the goal of the sales force is to reach the 20,000 cardiologists who are top perscribers of TG-lowering medication -- highly focused strategy, not scatter-shot across hundreds of thousands of PCPs. You continue to misrepresent what the company needs to execute against.

Like most anything, there is an 80/20 rule at play -- Amarin is concentrating on the 20% (cardiologists) who right 80% of scripts for the over 500 mg/dl population.

Once they get Anchor indication, they'll likely team up with someone else to reach the PCP community. Smart execution strategy, in my opinion, to maximize the return on the available resources and bandwidth. Never meant to reach the entire set of Lovaza perscribers with their current sales force.

Kay -- I appreciate your DD and insights. However, I think you are making a little too much of a big deal out of the terms. The cost is steep as compared to bank loan but it's right in line with the cost of venture debt. I much prefer this deal to stock dilution as the alternative to raising the same amount.

The assignment of IP is to be expected since it's the only real asset that the company has, and it is customary for transactions like this.