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Nah, you'll sell for 2-3 ticks or dump + disappear like you always do.
Good grief, you change your mind every 5 minutes.
There's FOMC minutes today, right? I think market is more or less waiting on that
I see the same as you, also using etrade
Sadly I agree. Trump's election/popularity isn't a one-off event, it's a product of many factors that are still going strong, and perhaps getting stronger -- polarization, misinformation/disinformation, radicalization via YouTube/FB (in particular), people feeling marginalized/unheard, a republican party (particularly McConnell, Graham, Cruz, right now) that's willing to torch every norm and standard to retain power, at the expense of democracy or governing, etc.
Information and exposing truth isn't going to fix those things anytime soon. If it was that simple, we'd already be seeing things improve as all the lawsuits get thrown out, as counties certify election results, and as even Fox news pushes back on the election fraud theories.
Instead, what you see is a doubling down or further radicalization. When Fox (the news side) says there's no evidence of widespread voter fraud, instead of questioning their beliefs, people turn to OANN and Newsmax.
It's going to take years and years for any kind of significant change. There are going to be people in Congress now that are fully on board with QAnon. To say nothing of the fact that there will almost certainly be Trumps in politics for a loooong time -- Don Jr and Ivanka in particular.
Look at the 2016 vs 2020 voter margins ...
2016 - 2020
MI -- 10.7k Trump win - 150k Biden win
WI -- 23k Trump win - 20k Biden win
PA -- 44k Trump win, 65k Biden win
GA - 14k Biden win
AZ - 11k Biden win
NV - 34k Biden win
Biden won every state by more than Trump won Michigan. In 2016 if Hillary had sued all the states, alleged voter fraud but went 1-24 in court battles, and Obama refused to start the peaceful transition of power, all while making critical policy decisions and firing government officials, Republicans would have (rightfully) LOST THEIR MINDS.
Instead, what we have today is a large subset of Republicans and Republican officials literally trying to get election results thrown out so they can stay in power in states where the margins aren't even CLOSE.
I'm going to stop now because this is too much pessimism in the morning than is healthy for one person, lol. Suffice it to say I don't know where we go from here, but I think it takes a long time to get there.
I just took some 13.5c on GME
RAD looks interesting into close here too IMO, bought calls there this morning
Not sure how that’s relevant, but considering that Giuliani was in touch with a Russian GRU agent re: Hunter’s “laptop”, seems like they tried a similar playbook and couldn’t make it stick this time since it wasn’t directly about the candidate.
What are your thoughts on the report? Do you think the Russians interfered in the election, as the bi-partisan commission concluded, or do you think they’re wrong, and why?
What are your thoughts about the Senate Intelligence Committee report?
It’s a bipartisan committee that pretty clearly stated Russia did in fact try to help influence the election.
https://www.npr.org/2020/08/18/903512647/senate-report-former-trump-aide-paul-manafort-shared-campaign-info-with-russia
Key paragraphs:
The committee found that Russian President Vladimir Putin was personally behind the hack and leak operation that published stolen Democratic Party emails, and that WikiLeaks — the website that published them — played a key role and "very likely knew it was assisting a Russian intelligence influence effort."
The Trump campaign sought to take advantage of those leaks by asking for advance notice of the WikiLeaks disclosures, crafting public relations strategies around them, and even encouraging "further theft of information and continued leaks."
Except it seems there’s no actual evidence.
https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/trump-goes-all-caps-promoting-oans-voter-fraud-conspiracy-debunked-by-the-ny-times-and-others/
From the article:
“The source of Trump’s conspiratorial missive comes not from Rion, but from OAN’s Lilia Fifield, who reported this morning that “election systems across the country are found to have deleted millions of votes cast for president trump,” citing data obtained from Edison Research.”
“The problem with this report, however, is that it only appears to exist in the dark conspiratorial ecosystem of the Internet. There is no report on this available on the website of Edison Research. Further, the Dominion computer glitch conspiracy has been debunked by Snopes and the New York Times as well.”
If they had actual evidence for any of this, it’d already be in court. Do you have a link to the court case or any news about it?
Gotta disagree, sorry. Trump has increased drone usage compared to Obama AND loosened guidelines for civilian casualties.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/trump-escalates-killer-drone-war-and-no-one-seems-to-care/
Five American peacekeepers died in a crash in Sinai and one more was injured. Despite dozens of tweets, not one peep from the President expressing condolences.
Despite having nothing on his official schedule, he was also LATE to the Veterans Day memorial event, which is pretty bad given it starts at 11 to commemorate the end of WWI.
1.3 B O/S you mean, right? Not 1.3M?
Yeah, I agree. I took a little RAD 13c for fun, it does look strong
Hard to play anything with confidence right now, I think.
I'm in NIO and SNAP puts, but have some SNAP calls as a hedge too
355 looks like resistance for now...
I'd guess flat or down, but don't have a strong conviction for the overall market. Personally, it's hard for me to see upside here when there's so much manufactured uncertainty regarding the election, and I think the short-term charts are reflecting that too ... feels like SPY is hanging in no-man's land rn waiting for a direction
I'll probably hold o/n as well, given how hot the longer-term charts were ... feels like bounces are going to be temporary for now and worth the risk
Back in, but this time 36p at .3
NIO might roll over here again too
Gettin straight shellacked! I sold all my 38s too early I guess ... almost ITM!
Sure looks like a double-top at $45 for now - personally won't play it for upside until that re-breaks and it definitely needs some time to cool down!
Glad you were still watching and grabbed some! :) I'm taking some profits here too, such a quick move gotta secure that $
I'm in NIO $38 puts at .32
Whoever said that on CNN was either wrong or misspoke.
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/23/926258497/when-will-mail-in-ballots-be-counted-see-states-processing-timelines
In fact, prior to the election, Republicans sued in Pennsylvania didn't start counting mail-in ballots until prior to election day. So you can cross that one off your list, for sure.
Other states have different timelines for both ballot counting and for when mail-in ballots are "due".
I try to believe whatever the evidence and facts tell me, doog, even when it's painful. Thus far, there isn't any compelling evidence for widespread voter fraud -- the only "evidence" I've seen is that people are distrusting the result because they "know" or "feel" it to be wrong, without any concrete facts about what actually happened. That includes all the lawsuits the Trump campaign has brought. I believe they're 0-10 thus far.
Everybody was warned about Dem mail-in votes coming in later, yes, but it's because Dems overwhelmingly voted by mail this year bc of the pandemic. Look at the partisan splits for absentee ballot requests. There's nothing in the number of requests vs ballots returned vs partisan splits, etc, that's way out of line for a highly-contested, polarizing election.
In fact, in a lot of cities (Detroit, Philly, etc) Trump finished with a higher % of votes than he did in 2016.
Even left wing nuts like ... Karl Rove ... have said the claims of widespread fraud have basically no merit: https://www.rove.com/article/11-5-20-wsj
And here's video of his appearance on FOX, saying people need to provide evidence of fraud, and that ballot counting would take longer this year:
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/karl-rove-if-campaigns-have-issues-with-the-voting-they-should-come-forward-with-the-evidence/
Frankly, I think anybody that's viewing this rationally/objectively is looking at the actual evidence, and right now there's nothing there.
That's a big claim with no evidence, bro.
When push comes to shove and people need to provide proof, all the lawsuits so far have been dismissed and failed to provide any compelling evidence for any wrongdoing.
Trump thought there was fraud in 2016, too, and there was a whole commission that found no evidence and shut down.
Worth remembering — I had forgotten about this.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/kris-kobach-donald-trump-voter-fraud-myths-vote-suppression-990300/
Oh sweet summer child. There are so many reasons to hate Trump, and it has nothing to do with brainwashing or him not being a politician, or whatever.
Here are a bunch, mostly off the top of my head with some details looked up:
There have been dozens of credible allegations of sexual assault against him. This isn't about "speaking nice" or being a politician. It's about being a decent human being and following the law.
He's absolutely, 100% used the office of the presidency to enrich himself and his family, *while* he holds the office. This used to be frowned upon. Jimmy Carter sold his damn peanut farm before taking office. Trump and his family/businesses have made millions off the backs of the taxpayers.
He has no healthcare plan. Never has, despite saying he would replace the ACA with something better.
Mexico never did pay for that wall.
He constantly says things related to the military/war on Twitter that catch his Generals/troops off-guard. That's not a good way to be the Commander-in-Chief.
He's terrible on the environment. He scaled back or removed rules on fuel efficiency, methane leaks from oil and gas pipelines, air pollution from power plants, water pollution in streams/lakes/rivers/wetlands, weakened the endangered species act, and wants to expand logging and oil drilling in Alaska.
In a related note, he's terrible on energy. Instead of propping up the coal industry, including easing so many pollution regulations, we needed to do more to invest in clean energy, help give people training to transition from dying industries (coal, oil, gas, etc) to ones that are clearly growing and are the future of energy.
He praised President Duterte's handling of the "drug problem." Duterte's policies on drugs are draconian to say the least, with police saying they've killed 5,500 "drug suspects" in stings. Doesn't sound like something an American president should praise.
Those tax cuts? Yeah, for individuals, those are set to start expiring and will officially revert to pre-cut levels in 2025. Meanwhile, for businesses, the tax cuts are permanent.
He's skirted the law on nominations, calling his nominees "Acting Secretary" so he doesn't have to go through the appointee approval process with Congress. This lets him nominate radicals, and/or unqualified loyalists, neither of which is good.
He and his campaign have made repeated violations of using White House resources to help him campaign. That's a no-no -- the sitting President and his campaign are two separate entities, and shouldn't mix.
Foreign adversaries are basically walking all over him, IMO...
North Korea's nuclear capabilities are stronger than ever.
Iran's nuclear enrichment program is stronger than ever.
He hasn't spoken up at all about China's concentration camps for the Uighurs, and the tariffs are basically a tax on the American people.
He managed to both increase the usage of drones in the Middle East, and implement rules to tolerate MORE civilian casualties in those strikes.
He's isolated us from our staunchest allies, including Canada and a lot of countries in the EU.
He does more to divide us than unite us. He took an oath to defend the constitution. Yet he calls the media the enemy of the people. He thinks that when people vote against him, it's a sign of fraud. Eroding democratic norms is NOT a little thing.
And, obviously coronavirus. His handling of everything has been really, really bad, up to the present day.
This is a long, long list, so I'll leave with this ... some of these problems are, and were, REALLY HARD. Especially the foreign-policy things. Nobody, no president, can get everything right. There are going to be mistakes. And some of the things Trump did were good. I think low-to-mid income americans need tax breaks, and need those continued.
But to say people hate Trump because they're brainwashed? No. I think most people have a pretty good list of things
I agree. I think it’s a relatively small amount of people that actually believe the election was “stolen”, and also a minority of politicians making that case (some who are true believers, and others just trying to cynically ride the wave).
But there’s a lot of disinformation out there for sure, and def some people that have been protesting around the places where ballots are being counted (as I know you’re aware!)
I’m glad things haven’t escalated, for sure, and hopefully we can start living up to e pluribus unum again.
I’d like the people that believe all the “stolen election” stories to really think about this for a second.
President Trump is alleging that the election was a fraud and Biden/Dems are essentially staging a coup. And he’s so sure of this, so enraged, and so passionate about defending the constitution and country that he’s ... out golfing.
I really hope people are able to see the difference between what he says, and how he acts, and realize which one reflects the truth.
Aren’t you a penny trader? I’m surprised you aren’t better at realizing when people are spinning and lying. The people you’re citing are 100% incentivized to be obfuscating and lying, and you’re sitting there like an easy mark just drinking it all up as truth.
The glitch in Michigan wasn’t in vote tabulation, it was part of the vote reporting process. It was a totally different problem than Georgia, and both problems were fixed.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/antrim-county-vote-glitch-software-update/6194745002/
Elections have a ton of fail safes and error-correcting mechanisms built in. Do some more research and stop swallowing all the BS you’re fed.
When all the blustering is done and Trump’s lawyers have to actually present evidence of fraud in court, they haven’t won a single one. They’re 0 for 8, last I heard.
The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee said Russia interfered in the 2016 election
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/08/18/putin-ordered-dnc-hack-bipartisan-senate-report-confirms/?sh=6479bc72daec
Meanwhile, all the claims of voter fraud have been debunked — almost in real time by election officials/investigators, and by the court systems thus far, where Trump’s lawyers can’t produce any actual evidence of fraud or misconduct.
It’s not liberal logic. It’s just facts.
Mmm yeah there have been a lot of issues like that.
When the president got COVID, they were checking him for clots by looking at his D-Dimer levels — thats something your body releases/produces specifically for blood clots. I’ve had the test done before bc I’m at high risk for DVTs.
Are you guys thinking about getting tested? Could it just be stress or something? Hope you get some answers bro, much love to you and yours
Those are not actual mortality rates - those are estimates based on models with data input by the CDC with best-estimate values for " disease severity, viral transmissibility, and pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic disease transmission"
Just saying, there's a difference. It also doesn't take into account what happens when hospitals get overwhelmed and have to start rationing care, how some people get messed up/have symptoms for months after they get it, lose jobs, etc.
It really is. Like I said, I don't think you're wrong on a potential pullback, but it's a tough thing to time ahead of time right now. EVs have been hot, market is hot right now in general helping to lift, etc.
NIO puts will be in play at some point relatively soon I think, and we'll both be on it :)
I agree with you and I think a pullback is coming soon. But it still seems like my thoughts/expectations and what the market wants are different for now, so trying to trust what I see on the chart (more upside potential, especially if it holds $40 break), while also giving myself some security with the strangle.
NIO looks strong here to me ... that MACD on the daily is still opening up despite being above upper bollie. I'm in a strangle looking for a move either way, but if I had to guess I'd say gap up into tomorrow
Yep got it on watch, thx! :) I'm looking at the 60 or 65p but haven't traded this one before so just waiting for now
In some NIO calls here ... looks like it wants new ATHs and 31/32c are pretty cheap.
I think that's more or less exactly what I said, so I agree lol
Agreed. Looks like we're clearly gonna test sub 005 tho, retail has no interest right now and there's enough selling pressure
OTCX needs to hurry up and finish whatever they're diluting
Go ahead and buy it, I'm happy to lighten my load a bit.