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Yeah I was supposed to go to the practice rounds but had to back up last minute. Disappointing tournament overall for me.... But a bad day of golf is 10 times better than a good day at work.
"Guys give me about an hour or two and I am going to be posting that research and DD I spoke of. I have found some very interesting information for everyone that i feel to be a game changer and will solidify WDDD's case against ATVI and for future licenses"
Still waiting buddy.... 8 hours and counting :)
Just got to south beach... Ill reply this evening. Fun time
1 is viable, 2 is highly unlikely. This company has yet to monetize patents effectively, and unfortunately a proven track record of success is a must for any buyout candidate, especially a company as litigious as WDDD. Otherwise, a company is simply buying a lot of time in court rather than a source of proven revenue to enhance the bottom line. Is it possible? Of course, anything is. But IMO highly unlikely.
I would love to see settlement talks however, but I also see another major caveat to this. Nobody has begun filing motions yet. In other words nobody knows how strong the others arguments are. In that situation the two sides are so far apart on numbers that it is next to impossible to get anywhere near a settlement number. WDDD wants the world and ATVI is willing to pay $0. Just some thoughts.
Anyone not "tempered" or "guarded" in a patent litigation stock is either insanely wealthy or insanely ignorant (or both). Nobody, not even the companies nor the attorneys themselves know what to expect. They have prepared and weighed their options yes, but to not acknowledge the negatives aspects litigious proceedings and market unknowns alike is a fools errand. I applaud Celtics for his epiphany (or whatever it is) and think that a mindset of under expect/over receive (hopefully) is a demeanor that will ultimately serve an investor well by way of protected principal while maintaining speculative success. That said, I hope this think takes off like me at Christmas
Thank you
Yeah, that seems stronger to a layman like myself than the VHC reference. Then again, I'm not that litigious.
Wow....how did I miss this? Entertaining to say the least. Thanks again
Thanks JJ (and fidcow)
Redangus
You recently replied to an article:
"Incidentally, the recent comments by a judge about how Google is abusing the court system..."
Can you site the link to this? I'd like to read it.
Where did you find this? I like it
I am positive of this, not as to how much volume it accounts for, but the fact that it does exist and happens. A good friend of mine that I play golf with twice a month.... His whole job is sitting in front of a computer that does exactly that. I'm oversimplifying his job of course, but not by much. It makes me laugh, and then when I think about how much he gets paid to do it, it makes me cry.
Read the Moreno report...
One last thing.... I can't speak for a lot of people on that board however, some argue, have zero factual bases, and like to simply hear themselves talk. They deserve the FU and I can't speak for them :)
I have only seen those people present logical and fact-based information for the most part. They, like myself, are just tired of baseless pumping, as it tends to do harm and exaggerate inevitable negative news associated with patent litigation stocks and ultimately exasperates the subsequent sell off by John Q public. The same way that you may feel attacked and frustrated by their posts and respective tones, is the same way they and I feel about comments that may do harm to the investment in question. You are obviously entitled to an opinion of someone, or anything for that matter, but I will say this about that... Just as you should never get emotionally involved in a stock, I also recommend taking the tone of a post in response to yours with a grain of salt. Don't let feelings creep into a response, but rather load it with facts or empirical numbers, as those tend to win more arguments in an investment community than anything else. Quite a few people rub me the wrong way, but I resist the urge to respond with a thunderous FU and start researching to see if I need to retract my statement or come back with facts to argue my point further. Cerebral personalities will always have an urge to argue their points, and often can't resist an opportunity to fire back at a subject they feel is inaccurate of factually false altogether. Such is life my friend.
As for Cooler, you don't have to like the guy, but you should definitely use him as a resource for anything factual in a given investment that he is active in. He truly is an obsessive and organized person who probably has a spread sheet he has created for any given topic at hand (which is a good thing in patent plays, given the number of motions, changes in facts and time line alterations that can and will occur). Good luck to you and all here.
Ok...sorry for this in advance as it is a long read, but the following is an analysis from Newbie on VRNG Free Forum (coolerheadsprevail here on Ihub). This is as good a prediction (well explained and backed by numbers and historical patterns) as I've seen yet. Definitely worth a read.
~Also, keep in mind that due to the low market cap, the volume can be a deceptive metric of investor interest -- as well as a deceptive metric of how much influence just a small number of deep pocketed retail investors could potentially wield.
Similar to a point I alluded to in a prior post long ago in this thread, think about the fact that both VRNG and WDDD currently have about 85M shares O/S (more or less). But VRNG's sp is 8x what WDDD's sp is. This means that on a weighted-average basis, WDDD really has the equivalent of only 10.6M shares O/S due to the increased buying power of the same dollar being invested.
Look at it this way: Investors don't invest based upon the number of shares they want. They invest based upon the amount of $$$ they are willing to plunk down on any particular stock. So if an investor is mulling over whether to invest $10k in either VRNG or WDDD, he will buy either 3,125 shares of VRNG or 25,000 shares of WDDD. At this type of scale, which is common for stinky pinkies like WDDD, it will not take too much retail interest to begin moving the sp.
This actually reminds me of the period when the sp was stagnating in the low-mid teens. Volume was non-existent and there were anecdotal stories of people wanting to sell but finding no buyers.
This does not surprise me as those who own are waiting for the next leg up and those who are on the sidelines are waiting for a sign that the next leg up is forthcoming so as to not have funds tied up in a stagnant stock.
My theory (again, no way to prove it) is that based on how quickly the sp jumped once it hit .26, that this triggered a buying and selling cycle that fed upon itself (i.e. "the run" that took us to the .40 level we are at now), with many of the same shares churning over and over again -- without truly putting as much of a dent into the float as many believe that it did.
My belief is that it is not coincidental that the runup began when the sp began kissing the .26 mark -- note that this .26 level represented a double for many "older" investors who had gotten in when the sp spent a longtime gyrating between .13-.15. It is no secret that many investors/traders de-risk when they double and sell. Buyers think a runup is coming and purchase these shares. And at each .01-.02 interval there is another wave of investors who have attained "double" status and fuel this cycle again, with more buyers jumping in to what they see as a run-up gaining steam.
This cycle repeats itself until it runs out of steam in the low-to-mid .40's (with high water mark of .49). Again, I do not believe it to be coincidence that the run ran out of gas at this resistance level as it represents a double from the most recent sp levels where it spent a lot of time consolidating prior to the run-up, which was between .22-.25. A lot of sales occurred between the .44 and .49 levels, which I believe represented a lot of the shares that had been acquired in this .22-.25 range before the runup kicked in. And remember, it did not spend much time around .24-.25 at all before it ranup -- which fits in with why we did not stick around the .49 level long as there simply were not that many of these .24-.25 shares that were up for sale.
Now that this "first generation" of shares have cycled thru, it seems that WDDD is building another base here at .40 where the current generation of shareholders are waiting for it to breakthru .50, which is where I would not be surprised to see the next leg of the runup occur. But WDDD needs to see a catalyst -- be it actual news, exaggeration of the potential impact of news, an outright believable rumor, a full frontal assault by SA writers, or simply the expected greed of speculators rushing in as the Markman date draws ever closer -- in order to get it up to. 50 first.
I believe that once WDDD hits .50, we will begin seeing this cycle of selling/buying due to the "double-then-derisk" phenomenon play out again, and if my theory is correct, it should -- barring other legitimate news or other catalysts -- run its course at close to 1.00 before retracing back to around .80 in order to re-group again.
So a rare prediction from me here, as the support and resistance levels, the levels where consolidation appears to be taking place, etc, just seem to be screaming this trend out to me -- but then again, the screaming could just be those voices that have been coming back ever since I stopped taking my meds...
Read more: http://vringo.freeforums.net/index.cgi?board=other&action=display&thread=1146&page=27#ixzz2Q4DRIfAv
"From the sand or the fairway? "
From under water
It must be nice to have that kind of time to day trade, if I day trade it's because I'm sick or unemployed. (I don't day trade ever FYI).
I assume that another opportunity to buy cheap shares will present itself on the 18th if historical market reactions to defendants motions hold true. Last decent chance for a swing (prior to appellate proceedings).
This is the equivalent of Acceptance in Kübler-Ross's 5stages of grief. I think that giving in to the notion that we have no control over the facts as the court dictates them and the truth that the market prices this (and all) stocks as they are (Not as we believe they should be).... We would all sleep a little better.
This is the stock market equivalent of Acceptance in 5stages of grief.
I saw that, My first reaction was shock and awe though lol. My thesis in college was in game theory and love the topic as it doesn't exactly come up in every day conversation. In fact, this is a first in over a decade. Anyway, it was good for a laugh. See "you people" here tomorrow. GL
I take my kid to Disney for the weekend and come back to BJ's and game theory. Sounds like a party to me, sorry I missed out.
I tend to have similar goals. I don't want to come across as bearish in sentiment, I'm the exact opposite. I expect anything in the .75+ range to be a major win and a conservative target. As facts/arguments come out through motions leading up to Markman my goals can and likely will change (hopefully to the positive side). I just hate to see anyone expect/invest (rather than hope) for the pie-in-the-sky only to panic and sell, or make an error like setting tight stop-losses. This will get very volatile, and dip 10% followed by a 20% run all within a 2 minute window will not be uncommon once this really gets going. It will be a shame to see John Smith go to the office, come home and see the price $X.XX up on the day, yet they unknowingly don't have a horse in the race because they were stopped out. It's not good for them and not good for the long community as a whole. Or maybe they simply don't like the long periods of silence (and there will be many) where price slowly drips, so they sell only to miss the PACER doc the next day and a spike. It's just good to keep a level expectation and reevaluate your position as facts change in the case. We know very little right now, but I do feel that the company has set themselves up well for a positive outcome and I'm anxious to see where this road leads.
"with now hot speculating rumors circulating on YMB about of Activision buyout of World's in an area range of $3.25 to $3.75 share will now raise new eyebrows and investor awareness going forward.....these rumors do not start out of know where for no apparent reason"
Yes, these rumors start, are disproven within 24 hours, and die on YMB. They are always from unfounded speculation of layman, inexperienced, novice investors who are frankly dangerous with their misinformation and it's effect that is had on young, impressional investors. The idea that a company would consider paying 940% for a company in its infancy with a track record of failure in enforcing it's patent portfolio in litigation is absurd. I challenge anyone to find an example of any company, ever, that has been offered this kind of mark-up. It doesn't and hasn't happened. These rumors have been circulating on a regular basis for over a year now since the inception of the VRNG vs AOL et al case, and I would venture a guess that every single rumor originated from Yahoo.
I am long, and I would love to see a settlement, but if one is to speculate and prognosticate, it needs to be realistic. For now, it's best to stick with the tangible facts and quantifiable numbers proffered to this point, as well as those that have yet to be disseminated through future motions. This will keep investors grounded and safe from allowing misinformation to dangerously distort facts and ultimately lead to financial harm to them and their families.
FWIW
I get the warm and fuzzies every time I read it. If my bulldog Clyde had a vocabulary, I'm sure that's what he would say.... In Biff Tannins voice
The majority of movement will will happen between June 1 and June 27. This is an undisputed pattern. Once pre-Markman PACER docs start flying you will see volatility increase exponentially.
Yes sir ;)
Ok, court just ruled that all JMOL are denied, meaning GOOG effort to invalidate Vs patents are denied. If this runs to $4+ then you could see a lot of selling there and purchasing here (me included). Glad I picked up another 200k here yesterday. Keep your fingers crossed here guys.
VRNG PACER JMOL denied
Nobody knows, this is how all patent enforcement litigation plays work. Beyond the Markman, NOTHING is predictable, and the only absolute is that any prediction is absolute speculation and conjecture. I hold VRNG, and even if we hear from the judge today (he has no reason to rule today or two months from now BTW), he still has not set the timetable for motions and responses to 822, which is the most important piece of the puzzle (RR). Once the Opp and reply are filed (probably a month long process as has been precedent in that case), then the VRNG Population will be waiting on Judge Raymond again. The point I'm trying to make is this, don't count on V investors as a catalyst for this stock. I liquidated a fraction of my shares and bought a ton here the other day in the spike, but a large portion of investors over there are extremely under water and may not have the ability to do the same.... Meaning their ability to invest in WDDD is predicated on the actions of a Federal Judge. Could it happen? Yes, but don't count this in as an automatic and predictable catalyst.
Done that too many times, have Cliff on speed dial. Rather speak to JJ
I'm passing around a petition to change JMHO to JTFJ.... Just The Facts Jack. Tired of opinions IMO :)
I sure hope so... We'll see soon enough
I know, just adding. Little levity to an otherwise dull board. Added and obscene amount of shares today.... Happy with the core position now. Pacer will come, and this thing will get volatile again for sure.
9 posts all day? What happened here? I'm shocked... And in awe
Have a large buy set at .38
We shall see what happens
This is normal during times of silence in a patent litigation investment, in fact be happy it isn't fading while we wait for pacer docs. Once they start flying we should see more significant moves in PPS
Ok I understand, I probably should have read further back.
That's a little overly simplistic Post.... I have a lot of common but a lot of Jan calls as well which I believe will pay well. I believe what you were saying is people buying near term options may loose out (ie April/May calls). If this is not what you meant please expound a little for me.