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Well, you will not see $240 share price. It is going up from here, forward PE is 20, cheaper than any other tech company
I will buy on any pullback. Go listen to the webcast from April 13 at omeros.com under events. Great pipeline and Omidria will make the company cash flow positive later this year.
>"Bavi did not fail.in either trial"<
Well, it failed to outperform placebo in Sunrise. What do you call that - a success?
It is obvious - Bavi has failed
They've been milking it for 15 years while having above market salaries. The only way to save the company and some shareholder value is to cut the losses and run. Sell Bavi, if it has any value, to a BP company, and concentrate an Avid. King and the whole r&d team have to go.
WS wins again - they new the chances for Bavi to succeed were slim to none. That's why the stock was selling for $1 or less recently and actually dropping instead of rising as we were approaching the end of Sunrise trial.
>>Sorry but you confused the enrollment of TRIAL SITES(original target 150) and the enrollment of PATIENTS<<
OK, my bad. Thanks for pointing out.
>>they announce fully enrolled phase III trial early 2015<<
Let's look at the enrollment data
• 5-29-14: 62
• 9-23-14: 141
This would be about 80 in four months, or 20 per month.
(600-141)/20 = 22.95 or about 23 months
So, at this rate it will take 23 months - end of August 2016. They are just too slow. On top of that it looks like the pace is slowing down - last 30 days they enrolled only about 10. At 10 per month it will be in spring 2018.
King has to go for this company to get something done. What happened to all those partnerships he promised a while back? With a good partner they would have at least twice as many enrolled by now.
Adam F on biotech in 2014
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12206235/1/22-biotech-stock-predictions-for-2014.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
This is what the jerk says on PPHM:
"15. Peregrine Pharma (PPHM_) manages to enroll 7 patients into its bavituximab phase III lung cancer trial, but that's five more than Cel-Sci (CVM_) manages to enroll in the Multikine head-and-neck cancer study. "
And on MNKD:
"5. FDA rejects MannKind's (MNKD_) inhaled, rapid acting insulin Afrezza for the third time. "
That was no stop loss execution - it was a mini bear raid - you can see it often with small cap biotechs a couple of days after a runup. It always happens within 30 minutes from opening as the stock is not a subject to trading halt during that time.
>>I have to believe that pphm is now just getting out of the flat line.<<
Based on what? It will have a runup into the results of the trial like most other biotechs. That means 18 more months of dead money unless they get a partner which is very unlikely. Get some ATHX if you want faster results.
>> hopefully we come off of this 52 week high a tad for a little cheaper entry <<
Well, it may come down some but if you wait too long you could miss the boat. Market cap is a very moderate 177M at 2.95 share price. What would be the value of the company if all those P2 trials show excellent results? In about two years or less market cap could easily exceed 1B. Risk reward even at $3 share price is very attractive.
>> Simply there has not been a meeting of the minds on value. <<
Agree with you on this, but it leads back to my previous comment - BP is not affraid of PPHM/Bavi or one of them would have paid the price and get partnership.
>> The pressure is on Big Pharma.... not Peregrine. <<
I don't see it that way. There is competition between BP, so the one that has Bavi would put all others at big disadvantage. No partner - what's that telling you? Maybe the Bavi results don't look quite as good in the BP eyes as they do here on this board?
>> The only thing that will make the pps go up is phIII results? Really? <<
That and partnership. They can't find a partner, that is more than obvious. The question is why - two possible answers. Either incompetent greedy management incapable of closing a deal or BP doesn't believe in Bavi story. Can you offer a better explanation?
>> Would the share price go through the roof? <<
You can't be serious. Look at Friday after hours trading - more beating next week, we may see the price go below $1 as the shorts pile on. All this talk about $5+ per share is a pipe dream. The only thing that would make the shares go thru the roof would be a positive phase 3 trials - and that is about three years down the road.
A lot of irrational exuberance here. Big pharma is not affraid of PPHM. The lack of partnership is the proof of that, if they were affraid they would have tripped over each other running to Peregrine to partner first and keep the others out.
>>It NEVER holds gains.<<
So far it hasn't held gains. If no partner, which is likely, it may linger between $1 and $1.5 for two more years. Selling $1.5 calls has been working pretty good for the last nine months, and it may work for another year or more.
>>Maybe "Santa KING" will have something in his knapsack for us.<<
Yeah, a lump of coal.
TA is meaningless here. They have to produce 100 m and 1 km strips for this stock to go anywhere. As of now they are not capable of meeting that goal, may never be able to do it. Production technology has problems.
They said fourth quarter, not end of December, already late. I don't believe what they say anymore. They wil probably announce the beginning of p3 without signing up anybody in December.
They have repeatedly told us about great interest, negotiation, signing partnership, etc. Hasn't happen yet, and it won't. They are very good in blowing smoke.
"Ready" ?? for what? This stock is not moving - they must have production problems they can't resolve.
>>the next big announcement we will hear is that we are starting Phase III without a partner.<<
You are absolutely right. They've had almost one year to find a partner. Start of phase III is likely to be postponed to Q1 2014 with the excuse they are looking for partner. They are not interested in p3, they want to keep the status quo while collecting better than average compensations on shareholder's money for doing almost nothing.
Management can't control the share price and it's not gonna blow after the options are awarded. They have to show some results, have been promising partnering for almost one year at every CC. Time to deliver is past due, but they don't care - they like the status quo - above average compensation on shareholders money.
I was away for two months and didn't follow the PPHM news. What happened with Clinical Supplies Management lawsuit?
Are you buying any call options based on this "Expanded access" info?
DJI Futures are up big time, so is Europe and Asia Pacific. It will be easier for PPHM to go up too - we should have strong green day.
We have been thru all this margin business before. Shares in IRA or ROTH won't be available for shorting, those are not margin accounts. Another way to prevent the shares to be available for shorting is to put in a limit sales order for very high price, like 10 bucks or more.
<<Getting ready for something big>>
We've been hearing this song from various posters for the last 6 months or longer. I'll believe it when I see it.
<<And then this volume today, what kind of racket is being run here?>>
Who the heck has been selling all those shares today and in AH? Total is over 20 millions - close to 10 times normal daily volume. Yet the price hasn't gone up all that much. Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
<<new immunotherapy combination studies are being planned.">>
Just great. Please explain how they gonna pay for the new studies, p3 trial plus payroll for the new employees.
<<All we need is ONE, repeat ONE indication approval.>>
Correct but without accelerated approval this is at least three years down the road. They need over 100 millions to conduct the trial and pay salaries during that time period. Where is the money? Don't count on any partnership soon if at all.
<<and IMHO a partnership close at hand.>>
No way. If close the insiders would be buying. Nobody on BOD has bought for a long time and that is your best indicator how well the partnership talks are progressing.
<<That 60% is driving me crazy.>>
They could have been sitting on the results since last December. It may be up to 90% by now, we don't know. No transparency, they are withholding critical information.
<<IMO "the saboteur's" are internal.>>
Well, you can certainly argue that case. The bigger question is who sabotaged the 2nd line in Fargo. Inside job?
One thing is sure, we now know why insiders haven't bought a single share on the open market - they are all in on it.
<<They want us out, retail that is. Hold onto your shares!>>
You might have a point. After the bad news this morning who is buying today and why? If this rate continues we will have traded 40 million shares by the end of the day.
Carboat, congratulation on your good judgement waiting for the front line results before making an investment. Given the end of enrollment date, 14 months MOS indicates they were sitting on front line results for a long time - didn't want to release. The bottom line - can't trust this management.
Here is the whole article:
http://ir.peregrineinc.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=655805
and more
http://www.biotechnologyevents.com/node/4122
This part isn't very encouraging, essentially same as control:
" patients treated with bavituximab plus carboplatin and paclitaxel demonstrated an ORR of 25%, versus 23% in patients treated with carboplatin and paclitaxel alone. Investigator-determined response rates were 32% for bavituximab plus carboplatin and paclitaxel versus 31% for carboplatin and paclitaxel alone."
and this
" The trial completed enrollment in September of 2011 and median OS from this trial is event-driven and anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2012."
Announcement of Median OS is now more than six months late. If the response is so weak how can the trial take so long to reach the trigger point. Doesn't make sense. Sandbagging?
<<If you believe expected means absolutely>>
I wasn't referring to the corporate fact sheets, I was talking about the feedback one of the posters got from IR.
<<I have a bridge for sale>>
Good, I'm buying as soon as I make enough money on my PPHM investment.
Somebody also recently posted the reply from IR where they say results will be released as per corporate fact sheets first half 2013 even if the trigger point is not reached. I really do not believe that, they gonna do whatever they feel like is in their best interest at the moment. No transparency and the street doesn't trust them, that's why we are trading below $2.
Let's take a closer look at that trial.
This is what we know:
Estimated Enrollment: 86
Study Start Date: June 2010
Enrollment completed: Sep 2011
Estimated Study Completion Date: July 2013
Estimated Primary Completion Date: March 2013 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
Completion date has been postponed several times, originally they expected completion by mid 2012.
SOC in this trial is carboplatin and paclitaxel
MOS for front line stage IIIB/IV non-squamous is 10.3 months
MOS in single arm previous SOC+BAVI front line NSCLC was 12.4 months (including squamous).
This is what we can guess:
They estimated the original completion date of June 2012 based on the enrollment schedule and expected MOS for SOC and MOS for SOC+Bavi using some predefined trigger point
What has changed? Three possibilities:
1. Patients in both arms living a lot longer than historical data
2. Only patients in Bavi arm are living a lot longer
3. They decided to change trigger point from ~60% to ~80%+ to catch more of the tail end separation
Question I have:
Do we know what is trigger point and can they arbitrarily change the trigger point during trial.