Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[investingdog]

officially 21 months since trial enrollment completed. It's hard to believe! The control arm patients lived this long!
21 - 3 months for data collection = 18 months.

Well, MOS for control group is about 10.5 months to the 50% point. You made a statement that trigger point is 80%, so add another 9 months or so get to 80%.

We don't know the enrollment schedule to perform more accurate calculation. Rough estimate would be to start counting from the middle of enrollment period or a couple of months later since the enrollment schedule is usually tail heavy. So, the middle of the enrollment plus two months is around Feb 2011. Now add to Feb 2011 10.5 months + 9 months for control arm to reach 80% events. That puts us around Dec 2012 for your trigger point of 80% for control group.

The Bavi group won't be at 80% at that time (hopefully they live longer), so you have to wait few more months for control to reach 90% and Bavi to reach 70% for the average of 80% to activate trigger point. That would put us around March 2013. All this is a very coarse estimate and it is a way off from the originally predicted end of trial by mid 2012 by PPGM.