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"The Ides of March are come"
"Aye, Caesar; but not gone."
Yes I'd agree. For a mid to long term hold, the company would need to produce increasing revenues, quarter by quarter at the least. They fall far from competing with uber. There are red flags that point to this ticker being for the purpose of selling shares.
But in the very near term, it is an exciting trade opportunity. The first resistance is .36, followed by the 200 day sma at .58. A break of .60 might give enough momentum to see a dollar but it would require a lot of volume in these next two days to get us there. .36 would be a 700% move off of the low so a price target of .58 is about the best that one could hope for without a very impressive news release.
The pinch play has started and was the trigger. (pinch play is highlighted while the range to focus on is outlined in blue)
The squeeze is ahead of us. There are probably some who shorted under .10 but they should have covered by now. The squeeze should come from the large number of shorts in early November to late December. Granted, many of them have exited with profit, the high volume of short activity during this period is right in the range we are trading now (Dec 1st - Dec 15th). Here's the data.
The extreme thinness of sellers that was evident of Friday, combined with no evidence of note holders or dilutive shares being issued, and the favorable short sale data in this range, points to the high possibility of further gains this week.
BUT, this is the pink sheets, and the companies are not always fully transparent, so the issuance of shares could be hidden from the filings, and is almost always the main deterrent in an upward move. Volume this week will be the tell
FTWS short squeeze triggered by pinch play. There are no convertible note holders, the CEO owns 30mil+ of a 52mil OS. It's been shorted down from $2.5 with the majority around $1. Friday was 130% on less than a million shares trade volume or ~$160k dollar volume. Average daily dollar volume before the big short was around $1million with a peak at $4million.
FTWS short squeeze triggered by pinch play. There are no convertible note holders, the CEO owns 30mil+ of a 52mil OS. It's been shorted down from 2.50. Friday was 130% on less than a million shares trade volume or ~$160k dollar volume. Average daily dollar volume before the big short was around $1million with a peak at $4million. FTWS
Below is a history report of conversions since the beginning of the dilution. It shows daily dollar volume and how the stock's liquidity is affecting conversions.
A total of $899,377 has been issued for a total of 82,299,235 shares.
There is approximately $1,085,623 left to issue into common stock. Furthest maturity date (last payment), I believe, is March 2016.
The three blocks below the dollar volume chart are one month totals of conversion data. Data includes the amount of shares converted in the month, the amount of dollars converted, the percentage of total OS that was converted in the month, the decline in pps during the month, and the total volume traded in dollars.
It is my opinion, that due to the substantial decrease in liquidity for the dilutors during November, we will probably see the run that many are anticipating sometime soon. But not for the reasons you'd want it to run.
Because there is $1M+ left to convert into common stock held by dilutors, they will need a run to induce the volume needed for liquidity. The data shows that with a continued pps decrease, the ability to make profitable dilutive sells will become more and more difficult.
In September, a total of 32% of the OS was issued and caused a 79.3% decline in share price. This was the effect of low liquidity, mostly below $50k a day in trade volume. A total of $1,012,913 of trade volume for 9/3 - 10/4
In October, a total of 56% of the OS was issued and caused a 5.4% decline in share price. Liquidity was high during this month, because of the run from .021 to .0685, bringing in volume needed to more efficiently dilute the stock while preserving share price. Nearly $600k traded on Oct 9th. A total of $4,178,105 of trade volume for 10/5 - 11/4
In November, a total of 39% of the OS was issued and caused a 68.8% decline in share price. Liquidity was higher during the two breakdowns of .02 and .01, because of eager buyers attempting to profit on a bounce. Although, dollar volume continues to decrease along with pps, and is now at its lowest since the end of September, ($27k on Dec 3rd was traded, and $36k was traded on Dec 4th). The last time trade volume was at $27k was Oct 2nd, five days before the run to .0685. A total of $1,476,076 of trade volume for 11/5 - 12/4.
If November's rate of dilution of 39% per OS continues without a event that creates high buy volume, we will likely be in .0007 in two months. Not a place that a dilutor with another $500k to convert wants to be. For this reason, we should see a nice run before dilution is even finished. Good luck.
For those who have asked for a total in convertible notes.
On December 3, 2014, the Company entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Securities Purchase Agreement”) with an accredited investor (the “Investor”) pursuant to which the Company agreed to sell, and the Investor agreed to purchase, an unsecured convertible promissory note (the “Note”) in the principal amount of $560,000 less an original issue discount (“OID”) of $50,000 and transaction expenses of $10,000 for a total purchase price of $500,000. The Company also paid a finder’s fee in the amount of $25,000 in connection with this transaction, which was recorded as a discount to the note as it was paid from the proceeds. The closing under the Securities Purchase Agreement occurred on December 3, 2014. The Company received $475,000 net proceeds after transactions costs. We amortized $8,333 and $19,444 of the discount to interest expense during the three and nine months ended June 30, 2015. In addition, the Company recorded $45,940 in deferred financing costs and amortized $7,657 and $17,866 to interest expense during the three and nine months ended June 30, 2015, respectively. As of June 30, 2015, the Company capitalized $28,074 as current deferred financing costs.
The Note bears interest at the rate of 10% per annum and is convertible into common stock of the Company at a conversion price per share of 70% of the average of the three (3) lowest Closing Sale Prices in the ten (10) Trading Days immediately preceding the applicable Conversion (subject to adjustment in the event of stock splits, stock dividends, and similar transactions, and in the event of subsequent sales of common stock at a lower purchase price (subject to certain exceptions))(the “Conversion Price”). In no event will the Conversion Price be less than $0.50 per share. Repayment of principal on the Note, together with accrued interest thereon, is due in twelve monthly installments, commencing six months from issuance. The Company may make such payments in cash (in which event the Company will pay a 25% premium) or, subject to certain conditions, in shares of common stock valued at the lower of the Conversion Price or 70% of the average of the three (3) lowest Closing Sale Prices in the ten (10) Trading Days immediately preceding the applicable payment date (the “Amortization Conversion Rate”). The Maturity Date of the Note is seventeen months from the date of issuance. We recorded a discount totaling $168,000 related to the beneficial conversion feature embedded in the note upon issuance. We amortized $28,000 and $65,333 of the discount to interest expense during the three and nine months ended June 30, 2015.
On February 10, 2015, the Company entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “February 2015 Securities Purchase Agreement”) with an accredited investor pursuant to which the Company agreed to sell, and the investor agreed to purchase, an unsecured convertible promissory note (the “$2M Note”) in the principal amount of $2,000,000 less an OID of $182,000 and transaction expenses of $10,000 for a total purchase price of $1,808,000. The closing under the February 2015 Securities Purchase Agreement occurred on February 10, 2015.
The $2M Note bears interest at the rate of 10% per annum and is immediately convertible into common stock of the Company at a conversion price per share of 70% of the lowest daily VWAP in the ten (10) Trading Days immediately preceding the applicable Conversion (subject to adjustment in the event of stock splits, stock dividends, and similar transactions, and in the event of subsequent sales of common stock at a lower purchase price (subject to certain exceptions))(the “Conversion Price”). In no event will the Conversion Price be less than $0.50 per share. Repayment of principal on the $2M Note, together with accrued interest thereon, is due in twelve bi-monthly installments, commencing approximately six months from issuance. The Company may make such payments in cash (in which event the Company will pay a 25% premium) or, subject to certain conditions, in shares of common stock valued at the lower of the Conversion Price or 70% of the lowest daily VWAP in the ten (10) Trading Days immediately preceding the applicable payment date (the “Amortization Conversion Rate”). The Maturity Date of the $2M Note is twelve months from the date of issuance.
During the three and nine months ended June 30, 2015, the Company received $400,000 and $800,000 toward the $2M Note with an original issue discount of $38,400 and $76,800 for net proceeds of $361,600 and $723,200, respectively. We amortized $17,600 and $22,400 of the discount to interest expense during the three and nine months ended June 30, 2015. In addition, we recorded a discount totaling $108,641 related to the beneficial conversion feature embedded in the note upon issuance. We amortized $25,113 and $36,349 of the discount to interest expense during the three and nine months ended June 30, 2015. As of June 30, 2015, $673,308, net of total unamortized discounts of $126,692 are classified as current on the accompanying consolidated balance sheet. As of June 30, 2015, there is $14,500 in accrued interest expense related to the $2M Note and the Company recorded $10,111 and $14,500 in interest expense related to this note during the three and nine months ended June 30, 2015. Subsequent to June 30, 2015, the investor has failed to provide any further proceeds beyond the initial $800,000 funded. See Note 11 for Subsequent Events for Waiver and Modification Agreement on February 2015 Securities Purchase Agreement.
On August 13, 2015, the Company entered into an Amendment, Waiver and Modification Agreement (the “Amendment”) to its $2M Securities Purchase Agreement and related Transaction Documents with Redwood Management, LLC including any designees and or assignees thereto. Under the terms of the Amendment, the parties agreed to reduce the $2,000,000 outstanding balance of the $2M Note to $800,000 to reflect the total amount funded under the note, to terminate the offsetting investor note securing the additional unfunded balance and to waive any past claims of default or offsetting interest on the $2M Note or investor note. See Note 5 regarding $2M Securities Purchase Agreement.
On August 5, 2015, the Company entered into a series of convertible note financings with several accredited investors totaling an aggregate of $517,000 in aggregate proceeds raised less certain fees and costs as set forth in the financing documents. The financing was disclosed on the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on August 11, 2015 and is incorporated herein by reference. (Details for each transaction can be found on the 8-k dated 8/11/15)
On August 12, 2015, the Company entered into an additional convertible note financing transaction with an accredited investor in the principal amount of $105,000 less fees and costs. The closing under the financing occurred concurrently with the execution of the financing documents on August 12, 2015. The convertible note bears interest at the rate of 8% per annum and is convertible into common stock of the Company at any time after 180 days from issuance of the note at a conversion price per share equal to 58% of the average of the lowest trading price of the common stock in the thirteen (13) trading days immediately preceding the applicable conversion date. The Company has the option to prepay the convertible note in the first 180 days from closing subject to a prepayment penalty of 150% of principal plus interest. The maturity date of the convertible note is June 12, 2016 subject to the noteholder’s right to extend maturity an additional nine(9) month period.
= $1,982,000
I've found that VFIN is the major short on this stock. He's aggressive and I believe he sells to look dilutive, though most of the newly issued shares get sold through VNDM. When VFIN is selling short, he is at the top of the order book on the ask and beats the other MMs on price, driving the pps down. But he has a trick when he's covering, and I noticed it 2 weeks ago when he was forced to cover because of Rule 4320. He will stay one or two steps out of the ask, to keep the price low, while he buys his shares to cover. His presence on the ask keeps everyone apprehensive of buying, and the other MMs compete with his price to sell their shares first.
The method was used today by VFIN, an indication that he was covering. The stock was up 23% this morning on a total of 5 or 6 trades, and under 250k shares. As soon as VFIN showed up on the ask, we started our price decline. If we had had buying pressure this morning, he might have been squeezed. It's too bad that he got to cover so low.
Very little shorting today caused a whole lot of panicked bull sells. The other MMs are more keen to the shorting, and have tended to absorb short sells, as well as the dilutive sells in the last two weeks, a sign of accumulation.
BUT! The very worst thing for our pps is not the dilution or the shorting, it is the frenzy of retail selling that attempts to jump ship faster than the others. They are the ones that are much less disciplined with their decision of what price to sell, and will scramble lower and lower just to get rid of their position.
I can't say that today's action is as positive of an indicator as Friday's was, where 5mil shares were traded, in half of a trading day, nearly all at the same price. Big sign of accumulation. But that 8% short volume today does look good, and is a great bullish indicator. I just can't be sure of how crappy the price will be when the most fearful of retail investors choose to jump. That kind of action will get us much much lower.
Hard for me to say. Based on an opinion of my valuation for the company, I'd say the shares should be priced at about .036. But, in the penny market, a nice run can briefly inflate the market cap to a few times the valuation. Hell, most of the biggest runs in the OTC are with companies that shouldn't even be in business. I will be able to give a better price target when I see how much retail volume comes in. The MMs will initiate the run, and then the major volume comes in with the retail frenzy of the evident gain. It's retail that sends these runs to the very top of the run, though the MMs usually orchestrate the beginning of it.
I can tell you that my personal price target is at about a nickel, although I will be substantially satisfied at a little over .04. A dime is pretty far out of the possibility, though, as I said, retail volume can do crazy things, especially if some sort of decent support is found on top of .035 or .04
Heavy accumulation today. CDEL and ATDF are the ones accumulating the most. CDEL has been a bull for most of the week. VFIN was the major shorter for the last couple weeks and he did most of his covering on Tuesday and Wednesday. I have not seen any definite signs of dilution at all this week. The other MMs (BMAK, PUMA, CANT...) are merely just flipping and making the market. The shares that VFIN bought to cover occurred right on time with the 13 day deadline concurrent to Rule 4320 which leads me to believe that he was the major fail-to-deliver position since the beginning of the month. A long string of buys on Tuesday actually occurred simultaneously with the release of the 2nd half of October's fails data, although it's possible that it was only coincidence at that time.
If anyone cares for an elaboration of my findings, please ask and I will gladly explain. There is a lot of action this week that indicates upward movement for VAPE and makes owning shares at this level much more comfortable. Today's trading actually makes me more pleased than yesterday's did. Although, we need more retail volume to get this price where we all want it to be.
Let me know if you get filled. Raised my buy order to .012... haven't got it yet
I've had a buy order at .0115 all morning. Hasn't been filled yet. If VFIN still wants to continue to dilute, why hasn't he sold to me? Other MMs have been beating him on lower prices today, which is much different from the last few weeks. Also, the difference in buying pressure when VFIN and VNDM jump off of the ask is huge. When they want to sell, they are extremely aggressive about it and so far today, that aggression is not to be found. When they leave the ask completely, buyers jump in, hoping that these two MM's absence will help to raise prices. I believe that VFIN is using this control that the market has given him on this stock to keep the buyers out today. Frankly, I'm upset that they won't fill my order with prices this low. I will buy higher, but the fact that I can't get them down here shows an indicator.
The O/S is solid at no more than 55mil shares. The company, for now, is as transparent as it gets in the penny market. The filings that notify the public of the conversions do not declare the sale on the open market, only that the shares were issued to the note holder. Dilution continues until they run out of the shares that were acquired. The last of the notes were converted at about .011.
Hive's revenue in 3 quarters is just over $1mil. Today, the market cap is at $1,008,257. As a low valuation, today's market close is fairly accurate, and any PPS lower is a smart buy. The fiscal year revenue is, most likely, closer to $1.3mil, but we will know for sure when the annual report is released. Considering the likely revenue estimate, and using the times revenue valuation method, with a growth multiplier of 1, a PPS of about .024 is likely to be more accurate on the low end.
I consider this a low end estimate because of the growth multiplier used in the valuation. Due to the wide open, highly speculative industry, and the company's brand new revenue that has just had its full birth in these last 5 quarters, many analysts would probably value Hive's operations to be worth considerably more. Revenue X2? More?
This is my 2 cents on VAPE, no pun intended.
Feedback is appreciated, as long as there's some substance...
VAPE is on the threshold securities list. Has had a fail to deliver position since at least Friday. How much of the action today was short positions that are covering?
"Pursuant to Rule 203(b)(3) of Regulation SHO and FINRA Rule 4320, a participant of a registered clearing agency (i.e., a clearing firm), that has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency (i.e., National Securities Clearing Corporation) in a Threshold Security for 13 consecutive settlement days must immediately close out that fail to deliver position by purchasing shares of like kind and quantity. "
Today's short volume 1,338,247 shares or 22%.
Total volume 6,112,607
4.5mil shares went through on the sell side of the spread. It appears that a substantial portion of those shares were probably long purchases at the lower price of the relative orders. The other sign of big accumulation was the extremely tight trading between .22 and .23, where about 85% of the volume occurred, on a day of higher than average total volume. Today, as it might have appeared rough, was full of bullish indicators. My guess is that at least 4 million shares were bought today, with many of those shares being shorts that are now forced to cover, will be forced to cover soon, or that are covering due to the strong indication of upward sentiment.
VAPE is a buy. In terms of aquisition, this one is ideal.
Things you would look for in buying out a company:
A company that is currently undervalued; Vape's market cap is 568k and dwindling.
One with proven revenues and, ideally, with a proprietary product that is superior to other related products. Hive's ceramics are creating revenues of over $1mil this year and there are tons of stoner product reviews on YouTube that prove Hive's product to be the best.
One in a sector with explosive growth. The marijuana industry is creating a huge impact in the US economy and with only 3 states legal, it has a market valuation that moves too fast to accurately pin.
A company with good margins. VAPE's gross margin is decent and as of the last quarterly was about 45%, and Hive's was closer to 51%.
One with more room for higher margins. Kyle and the others pay themselves too much, buy them out, kick them out, and then there's plenty of room for greater margin.
Combine these points of interest with a decrease in stockholder liabilities from the recent notes converted, and VAPE looks like an aquisition play to me.
Hive sold over $958k in ceramics from Oct '14 to July '15. Over $1 mil in ceramics alone in the full year. With the decreased liabilities from conversion, the annual report is going to look pretty good. With that kind of revenue from a product in its infancy, I'd expect that Hive will be increasingly appealing for an aquisition in the future. If the OS is indeed still 18mil, a good target as a valuation would be closer to .11 pps at this moment. Way undervalued with a cap of $568k
VAPE fiscal year ended 9/30, on Wednesday. The 29th was an up day with peak volume. As of last quarterly report, for the 9 months ended on June 30th, VAPE showed revenue of $1,084,233. Profit on that, at the time, was 232k, with an EPS of .05. The recent notes converted are likely year end bonuses. In the 8-k which reported the aquisition of BetterChem, and the employment of Dr. Scialdone, it states that Scialdone is entitled to bonuses based on revenue. As likely the same with the other executives. 2015 for VAPE is likely to have shown $1.2 - 1.5 million in revenue for 2015. The question is whether there's profit on that revenue. We will know for sure when the annual report comes out in a month or so. The revenue alone is enough to draw attention, especially in comparison to prior years
In at .001, out at .016 I suppose I can be happy with that. Ha, hemp oil, who knew
Wow!! Bizarre trading here! 72,000 at .0002 and the bid is now .0004?? Is this a mistake?!?
Predicting that a penny stock will go down requires no skill or prophecy. It is the trend of the penny world. There has been near none that have broken out and stayed out. Why do you think they wont let you sell short? Everyone would be rich. I have a prediction... All stocks on the pink sheets will be down further in a year than they are now!
CMIT ANNUAL FINANCIALS RELEASED
$123,709 IN CASH
$644,612 GROSS PROFIT
$4.5 MILLION IN REVENUE
A few interesting points/questions to look at with EVPH. Maybe Yale_MBA can help.
1)SHARE STRUCTURE: I keep digging and digging, and the posted share structure doesn't add up. If someone can show me where I can find a document that says the OS is 1,435,526,695, I'd love to see it.
In the latest posted financial document, I find an OS of 751,526,695 and a float of 525,064,695. Not a float of nearly a billion. Maybe I've missed something
2) OBV: When there is real dilution, I can always pinpoint an exact spot where dumping occurs on the OBV chart. Occasionaly on the accumulation chart. With EVPH, all I see is loading. On all the proven scam penny stocks, OBV does nothing but go down. Indicating constant selling. Why is it that EVPH is the opposite? Especially considering the price that it is at .0001, shouldn't OBV be nearly a negative billion? Look at FRCN or BCDH on the OBV! STOCK SELLING SCAMS!!
That being said, scams don't actually completely scare me off. The penny world is Vegas, not investment. I love to make money everywhere, whether it's a scam or not. And in this penny world, the scams run the hardest. The possibility that this guy has an actual MBA from Yale, you'd think he'd be smart enough to have noticed this fact and would have left this silly penny world. Maybe he duped everyone into selling the price so far down, as he accumulated that mysterious 90 million that went through on the sell side, only to show as a huge accumulation on the OBV. All I know, is that I get my orders filled on the sell side all the time! Only way to buy!
I try to load up when there are no alerts, no news, no buzz. I HATE to buy late, and usually don't bother if it's already been climbing. Perfect loading time for SUTI.
But to answer your question, the story with SUTI right now is that they should be uplisting from the pinks to QB any day now. They're a pink sheet that is up to date with all financials. They hit the last annual financials release deadline on the nose! Why file on time and spend money to audit previous years financials if they're only on the pinks and don't even have to? Unless an uplist is the goal. Even current QBs don't make their deadlines. Otherwise, the share structure is awesome! A float of 268mil and guys are getting .0004's! There is no evident company dumping lately which is almost always the reason for triple zero's. Just some retail investors who couldn't hang. A penny is easy here when activity flows in.
The pattern with most of these penny's that run big holds pretty solid. No activity, then some sort of premature 100-200% gain where a lot of loading occurs, and then comes the news that sends it to the 1000% that everyone wants. But the only ones who get that bag were the ones who bought when it looked it's worst. You buy after news and buzz comes out, your profits are half or less of what they could have been. Just my opinion...
MMs are jumpin up the ask one by one. Nite first, then atdf. They see the support here and now their values are up. Looks good
Long here. In at .001 during the chill. I should maybe have sold this morning, but I think I will get out tomorrow when I hit 1000%. Only a slight pullback today in a run that's not done. Nite worked the price down this afternoon, but still none of the 35 million shares that seemed to have been bought all at once yesterday between .003 and .006 have been dumped. Looks like MMs are driving this and retail investors that jumped in late yesterday and today jumped back out with a loss or near miss. I'm comfortable here and will stay long for at least another day or two. Maybe longer
Not bad. Could make .005 sometime soon. It doesnt look like they've diluted too terribly in the past. With the news of a pay off, i dont see any dumping coming soon but i'm still always on guard with a news release, haha.
I thought you were in IDVC around october Wealthmoney, or maybe you had your eye on it when you shot me the tip. Coulda sworn it was you
Haha. Maybe. Glad to see you as i think you were the one who threw me this pick
Hi estrella!! Glad to see ya here as well! I've been with IDVC here since november. What great news today!!
Been with CMIT about six months and I know others like Estrella have been here longer. Not here for excitement...
Originally got in at .0013. Avg'd out at .0022. YAY. Wish I could of gotten more
SUTI may be close to uplisting to QB. What other reason would they have just released audited annual reports from both 2010 and 2011 only a month ago having not previously done so? Looks like they're trying to be a fully reportable company worthy of listing on the OTCQB. An uplist would prove great potential for this stock. With the heavy accumulation in the last few weeks on a relatively low OS (nearly 200mil accumulated on a 291 mil OS), it sure looks to me that there is some loading going on in anticipation of the news to come.
Guess i didnt fully read the email. This is regarding an IDVC order
"Dear Scottrade Client,
One or more open orders have been cancelled in your Scottrade account ending in *609. This action was due to a stock split, reorganization, delisting or name/symbol/CUSIP change."
I had an open order for IDVC on $cottrade for a couple weeks. Yesterday they cancelled my order and the explanation says it was due to a stock split.
Hey! We got some attention here estrella!! I got some of those cheapies a couple days ago!
i've only been watching since last friday. I slacked and didn't get funds together in time for monday morning where there was tons of volume at .0013. I did get in later in the day at .0024 and up. This stock just gets a little touch of volume and it flies! I'm a believer estrella! haha.
sorry, i don't have access to send private msg
Have ya'll seen the size of those two huge green candles the last two days. Last time we saw those it went to 3 pennies!!!
awesome support at these levels. no one is selling below .0026-27