Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
DARA BioSciences, Inc. Announces Pricing of $12.5 Million Public Offering
Crap!! I bought back too soon!
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=MW&date=20140530&id=17661294
RALEIGH, NC --(Marketwired - May 30, 2014) - DARA BioSciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: DARA -26.38%, news) (the "Company"), an oncology supportive care specialty pharmaceutical company dedicated to providing health care professionals a synergistic portfolio of medicines to help cancer patients adhere to their therapy and manage side effects arising from cancer treatments, today announced the pricing of a public offering and the entry into definitive agreements with investors which included certain officers and directors of the Company for the sale of securities with gross proceeds to the Company of approximately $12.5 million.
The closing of the offering is expected to take place on or about June 4, 2014, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.
The Company estimates that the net proceeds from the offering will be approximately $11.3 million, after deducting placement agent fees and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company (and excluding potential proceeds from any exercise of the warrants). The Company currently intends to use the net proceeds of the offering (i) to fund commercial activities related to its product portfolio and the Mission Pharmacal products, including the Company's obligations in connection with its agreements with Mission and Alamo, (ii) to fund the acquisition of late stage/approved products to augment the Company's existing portfolio of supportive care products, (iii) to evaluate whether further internal development of KRN 5500 would be beneficial to the Company's partnering efforts and to undertake certain development activities as appropriate and (iv) for working capital and general corporate purposes.
New Article: 5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12137459/2/5-stocks-insiders-love-right-now.html
CYTR
One biopharmaceutical player that insiders are in love with here is CytRx (CYTR), whose oncology pipeline includes two programs in clinical development for cancer indications: aldoxorubicin and tamibarotene. Insiders are buying this stock into strength, since shares are up sharply by 40% so far in 2013.
CytRx has a market cap of $110 million and an enterprise value of $74 million. This stock trades at a premium valuation, with a price-to-sales of 330.20 and a price-to-book of 6.45. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 7.7%, and for next year it's pegged at 16.7%. This is a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $23.04 million and its total debt is zero.
A beneficial owner just bought 284,979 shares, or about $694,000 worth of stock, at $2.35 per share.
From a technical perspective, CYTR is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last month, with shares moving higher from its low of $2 to its intraday high of $2.69 a share. During that move, shares of CYTR have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of CYTR within range of triggering a big breakout trade.
If you're bullish on CYTR, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some near-term support levels at $2.32 or at $2.12, and then once breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance at $2.70 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 535,162 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CYTR will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $3.20 to $3.40 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give CYTR a chance to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $3.65 a share.
I follow $heff, too. He's stopping out at $2. I'll probably stick around until at least year end to see what the study results are.
glty
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=93690056
Audio Analysis from the $heff board:
APPY DD Audio Post on 9/24/13..http://www.screenr.com/PqZH
Discussing upcoming catalysts & trading patterns.
Disclaimer: http://bit.ly/OIN9DB
Damn it! I sold too soon!!! LOL
I was wondering about that myself. Are there any catalysts coming? It's difficult to find any news on this one. 6 months ago, there was a lot more buzz. Even this board has been so quiet. I thought surely a run up like today's would have created some excitement.
New Fools Article: 3 Pharma Stocks You Need to Watch for the Rest of 2013
By Keith Speights | More Articles | Save For Later
July 2, 2013 | Comments (0)
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/07/02/3-pharma-stocks-you-need-to-watch-in.aspx
It's hard to believe, but 2013 is already more than halfway over. This year has been a good one for many pharmaceutical stocks -- at least so far. No one knows what the remainder of the year holds in store, but some pharma stocks are sure to move one way or the other based on big upcoming events. Here are three pharma stocks you need to watch for the rest of 2013.
1. Antares Pharma (NASDAQ: ATRS )
Antares has experienced a roller-coaster ride so far this year. The stock was up more than 10% early in January, then proceeded to fall by more than 20% by late February. Since then, Antares has clawed its way back and now stands up a little over 10% for the year.
The big event on the calendar for Antares is the Food and Drug Administration decision on Otrexup scheduled for Oct. 14. Otrexup allows patients to self-administer methotrexate for treating rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis. Methotrexate is widely used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other autoimmune diseases. Otrexup uses Antares' Medi-Jet technology, which has a shielded needle that makes it easier for patients to self-administer the drug.
Otrexup is more convenient than taking methotrexate via regular injection methods. Methotrexate can be taken orally, but patients can experience gastrointestinal side effects, and absorption of the drug tends to decrease as dosage levels increase. Otrexup should prove appealing to patients, assuming it gets cleared for commercialization. I expect the FDA approval to come through and that Antares shares will get a nice bump later this year.
Exclusive Interview With Stephen Lundy, Venaxis President And CEO
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1522902-exclusive-interview-with-stephen-lundy-venaxis-president-and-ceo?source=msn
(Editors' Note: This article discusses a micro-cap stock. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.)
NBC News has recently reported a new warning for parents about children undergoing multiple CT scans to help doctors diagnose medical issues and the risk of developing cancer. Unnecessary exposure to radiation can be damaging to growing children and repeated or high dosages may increase the risk of cancer later in life. Researchers analyzed data in children under the age of 15 who had CT scans between 1996 and 2011. They looked at the frequency and the level of radiation doses and estimated that of the 4 million scans performed each year, more than 4,800 children could develop future cancers. With that said, doctors are now starting to take a closer look at how often kids get CT scans and the effects of all that radiation.
Venaxis' (APPY) lead product, APPY1, is a blood-based appendicitis screening test that may potentially mitigate unnecessary radiologic imaging in a percentage of the patient population suspected of having acute appendicitis. The current focus of the company is to develop the APPY1 Test to assist physicians in identifying children and adolescent patients at low risk for appendicitis as this population is at the highest risk of long term health effects associated with CT imaging. Based on current projections, the Company anticipates completing its ongoing pivotal U.S. clinical study and potentially filing with the FDA for regulatory clearance of APPY1 by year end 2013.
This week, I had the pleasure of holding an exclusive interview with Venaxis President and CEO, Mr. Stephen T. Lundy. This interview will help us gain a better understanding of the company's plans and future prospects.
Stephen T. Lundy was named President and CEO of Venaxis in March 2010 and was simultaneously appointed to the firm's Board of Directors. He has 25 years of experience in commercializing novel in-vitro diagnostic products and services. In addition to holding executive positions at MicroPhage, Mr. Lundy served as senior vice president of sales and marketing for Vermillion from 2007 to 2008. He's also the former vice president of marketing for Esoterix and marketing director for molecular diagnostics and critical care testing at Bayer Diagnostics. Mr. Lundy is a bachelor of science graduate of the United States Air Force Academy and served as an Air Force officer from 1983 to 1988.
Ben Yoffe: Mr. Lundy, I would like to start with the company's ongoing pivotal trial for APPY1, the company's blood-based appendicitis test. Where it currently stands and what are your expectations for the final outcome?
Lundy: We are actively enrolling patients into the pivotal study, which we expect to support regulatory submission for potential FDA clearance of the APPY1 Test System. The first hospital sites began enrolling patients earlier this year and enrollment has continued to ramp nicely as we continue to bring more of our participating sites on line. The study will enroll 2,000 evaluable patients in total and we expect to complete enrollment and report top-line data by the end of the year. We plan to submit our 510(k) package to the FDA as soon as possible, if the data are positive.
In terms of our expectations, we would feel very confident if we were able to achieve results similar to our previous 500-patient study, which was completed in 2011. This was the first clinical study performed using our improved multi-biomarker test format, and the APPY1 Test demonstrated negative predictive value of 97%, sensitivity of 97% and specificity of 43%. Based on physician feedback, these results, particularly the high negative predictive value, are very strong in terms of what they are looking for in a test like APPY1.
Yoffe: Could you give us a sense of how this process works?
Lundy: The APPY1 Test uses two different protein biomarkers combined with white blood count in a proprietary algorithm to produce a single objective test result for physicians to use in identifying patients at low risk for appendicitis. The first biomarker is a protein complex known as MRP8/14, which is involved in the activation of immune cells called neutrophils. The second biomarker, C-reactive protein or CRP, is produced in the liver and is also involved in inflammation. White blood cells produced in the bone marrow become elevated in response to appendicitis and other infections, so the amount of cells circulating in the blood is another key input for our algorithm.
The reason we chose these three factors specifically is because patients with appendicitis come to the emergency room at different time points in the progression of the disease. Some come to the hospital shortly after symptoms appear, where MRP8/14 tends to be the most relevant. Some patients wait hours to a few days after symptoms start, and CRP and white blood count are highly elevated. Our algorithm integrates these three factors in a way that allows APPY1 to capture a wide spectrum of suspected appendicitis, identifying those patients who are at low risk.
Yoffe: What are the potential benefits of using the APPY1 Test?
Lundy: To best answer this, it is helpful to understand what an ER doctor typically does when examining and treating patients who come to the hospital complaining of abdominal pain. It starts with a clinical assessment where the doctor will examine the patient to determine if there is potential risk of appendicitis. For most patients, blood is drawn, and in many cases the doctor will order a white blood cell count. Patients then most often progress to some form of imaging - usually ultrasound or CT, or ultrasound followed by CT if ultrasound is inconclusive. These imaging procedures are very good at diagnosing appendicitis, however the issue is that the majority of patients that undergo imaging today are actually negative for appendicitis.
In addition to contributing to longer stays in the ER and higher costs, abdominal CT imaging has been shown in several published studies to significantly increase patients' lifetime risk of cancer. This is particularly true for younger patients, for whom appendicitis is most common.
The APPY1 Test can be used to prevent or obviate the need for CT imaging by aiding in the identification of patients at low risk for appendicitis with just a simple, rapid blood test. The doctors are already drawing blood, so there is minimal interruption to the normal patient workflow. It is simply a matter of ordering the APPY1 Test at the time of blood draw. Our 500-patient study showed that had APPY1 been used, it potentially could have prevented over one third of the CT scans that were performed in the study.
Yoffe: What is likely to be the doctors' next step after using the test?
Lundy: It is difficult to generalize, as every decision is based on a number of factors. But some options are:
1. Bypass imaging, either CT or ultrasound. If the clinical impression is low to moderate risk and the APPY1 test is negative, the patient has an extremely low risk of having an appy. So imaging just does not make sense in most cases.
With kids age 2-21 (intended group for APPY 1), appendicitis is the overwhelming reason for a CT scan. There may be other conditions, such as ovarian cyst in an adolescent female, but it is always important to the clinician to know it is most likely not appendicitis.
2. Avoid a surgical consult. Most surgeons hate consults that don't end up with a surgical procedure. ER docs will be less likely to sent a patient to a surgeon with a negative APPY 1 result. In fact, two of the patients in our 2011 study (the 503 patient study) went to surgery and there was no appendicitis. Our test was negative in both cases. If the APPY 1 test was available, these two patients could have potentially avoided costly surgeries.
Yoffe: Has the medical community been looking for a better solution in this area?
Lundy: Yes. Appendicitis is notoriously difficult to diagnose. While there are some classic symptoms, patients with appendicitis may not always present in the same way and abdominal pain can be caused by a number of other conditions, including those as benign as indigestion and constipation. Doctors in the ER are looking for ways to "rule out" appendicitis in these patients and having a simple blood test that provides rapid, objective results, and that demonstrates high negative predictive value, will be to their benefit in identifying those patients who are at low risk for appendicitis.
Contributing significantly to the clinical need for APPY1 is the growing concern over the use of CT scans. Both the medical community and the FDA have formally expressed the need to reduce the number of CT scans, particularly those performed on children. A paper was published very recently in JAMA Pediatrics that looked at the use of CT scans over more than 10 years and determined that abdominal CT scans are associated with highest risk of cancer and have also seen the most dramatic increase in use over the study period. Appendicitis is a leading cause of abdominal CT scan use, so certainly there is a recognized need for improved diagnostic tools for determining risk of appendicitis.
Yoffe: Can you tell us a little about the interaction between the company and the FDA?
Lundy: We met with the FDA during our pre-investigational device exemption or IDE meeting, where the FDA reviewed the data from our 500-patient study and provided valuable input and feedback, which we incorporated into our plans for the pivotal study. We appreciate this valuable guidance and insight and we are currently following through with their recommendations.
Yoffe: Can you give us a picture of the market size for the APPY1 Test?
Lundy: In the U.S., there are over 10 million annual visits to the ER for abdominal pain, and blood work is ordered for about 75% of those patients. Of that 7.5 million abdominal pain patients, about 1 million are children and young adults aged 2-20, which we view as our primary market. In Europe, there are 2 million potential tests, so the overall opportunity in these two markets is 3 million tests.
Yoffe: What would be the price per test?
Lundy: We have not established price per test but we have been guiding in the $75 range.
Yoffe: What are your commercialization plans?
Lundy: The hospital market is relatively concentrated in the U.S. and we believe we can effectively reach the high-volume target hospitals with a small direct sales force, initially. Our current plan is to build this sales force closer to potential FDA clearance of APPY1. In Europe, we have already announced market development relationships with a number of specialized distributors in target countries. Once the planned market development activities are completed, we expect to execute longer-term agreements with those distributors for the full-scale launch of APPY1 in 2014.
Yoffe: Can you give us a little bit color on the preparations for the upcoming commercial launch of APPY1 in Europe?
Lundy: In this initial stage, we have begun working with our market development partners to qualify and establish relationships with the top hospitals in their respective territories. We are planning small market studies designed to further quantify the economic value of APPY1 in those target regions. We expect these studies to provide key insights that will facilitate the full-scale launch next year.
Yoffe: In the past few years, we are aware of acquisition activity in the molecular diagnostics sector; GE Healthcare (GE) acquired Clarient, Genoptix was acquired by Novartis (NVS), Hologic (HOLX) bought Third Wave Technologies. Have you ever thought about selling the company?
Lundy: Currently, we are focused on completing our pivotal study as efficiently and expeditiously as possible. While several members of our executive team, myself included, have been involved in successful divestitures in this space successfully, we believe it is important to focus all of our current efforts on obtaining regulatory clearance for our test.
Yoffe: In closing, how far can Venaxis go with the current funding?
Lundy: With our recent financing, we have sufficient capital to complete the study, file for FDA clearance, and launch APPY1 initially in the U.S. and Europe.
Here is the link I found on Street Insider:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Morgan+Stanley+Maintains+Bullish+Stance+on+Walter+Energy+(WLT)/8424019.html
Morgan Stanley Maintains Bullish Stance on Walter Energy (WLT)
Morgan Stanley today maintained an Overweight Walter Energy(NYSE: WLT) with a price target of $47.00. Analyst Evan Kurtz sees huge upside in the stock and thinks shares could climb 200% even if the company announced an equity offering that increased share count by one-third, something management does not plan to due.
For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Walter Energy (NYSE: WLT) click here. For more ratings news on Walter Energy click here.
Shares of Walter Energy closed at $12.13 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $11.76-$48.99.
Join StreetInsider.com FREE and get immediately alerted when news breaks on your stocks and other market items - JOIN NOW
*NEW - Download StreetInsider's FREE iPhone and iPad App - Click Here
The End of Obama? Could Obama's presidency be ruined by a single upcoming event? A widely read journalist in America thinks so.
Ameritrade is showing .6986
So happy they kept the payout the same (don't think anybody was expecting an increase)! I kept averaging down and have way more money in this than I am comfortable with. I'll feel much better once we're above $5.
Crap! Here is the reason. How can this be if it is already approved in Europe? Wouldn't there be enough safety data to prove otherwise?
Delcath’s Chemotherapy Device Has Serious Risks, FDA Staff Says
By Anna Edney - Apr 30, 2013 6:21 AM PT
Delcath Systems Inc. (DCTH)’s experimental drug-and-device combination for chemotherapy carries life- threatening risks that may outweigh any benefit, U.S. Food and Drug Administration staff said. The shares fell.
The Melblez Kit is associated with “a high treatment- related mortality rate that in the best-case scenario would be replicated in the post-marketing setting,” FDA staff said in a report today ahead of a May 2 meeting of agency advisers to discuss the product. The kit is intended to treat eye cancer that can’t be surgically removed and has spread to the liver.
The system performs what New York-based Delcath calls chemosaturation, using the device to inject a high dose of the chemotherapy melphalan to the liver. In clinical studies, eight people, or almost 7 percent, died from adverse reactions including liver failure, hemorrhagic brain lesions and gastrointstinal hemorrhage, FDA staff said. Of the patients who received alternative care, none experienced fatal reactions.
Delcath fell 19 percent to $1.21 at 8:58 a.m. New York time. The company fell 51 percent in the 12 months through yesterday.
Patients who used the Melblez Kit in studies also experienced more serious adverse reactions, including a decreased ability of the bone marrow to make blood cells and liver toxicity, FDA staff said.
The agency extended by three months its decision on whether to approve the kit to Sept. 13 as it looks over information clarifying bridging studies Delcath did to let the company extrapolate data from foreign trials. Delcath generated $350,000 in revenue last year after receiving European approval in April 2011 to sell its Chemosat Delivery System.
To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Edney in Washington at aedney@bloomberg.net
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-30/delcath-s-chemotherapy-device-has-serious-risks-fda-staff-says.html?cmpid=msnmoney
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1292491-antares-a-compelling-long-term-investment?source=msn
Antares: A Compelling Long-Term Investment
Mar 21 2013, 12:14 | 10 comments | about: ATRS, includes: BPAX, PFE
Disclosure: I am long ATRS. (More...)
Antares Pharmaceuticals (ATRS) is in my opinion one of the best long-term stocks that an investor can own. It has proven its ability to produce drugs that are ultimately brought to the market, and so far all of them have been through its marketing partners. However, this should change soon, as Antares is continuing preparations for its Otrexup injector. This injector is currently awaiting FDA approval. This drug is very important to the Antares pipeline, as it is the first device that it's marketing on its own, and consequently it will be able to keep all of the revenue from the device.
The fact that they are making preparations for a launch is what leads me to believe that Antares' quarter miss is not at all important. They beat on revenue; however, the EPS came in worse than expected. The important part of all the information is that for a company like ATRS to be even close to break even, with Antares being this close to having their main product approved is a great sign. Otrexup should drive their PPS growth for the next couple of years. In a few years when OTREXUP is on the market, no one will remember last quarter, or even likely the upcoming quarter. All that matters is that Antares is successful in marketing OTREXUP, and prove that it can develop a product in house and take the product all of the way out through commercial success.
Now sure some people will try to point as a negative to the fact that Antares is cash-flow negative or to its 5 million dollar per quarter burn rate last quarter, however, even if we use this 5 million dollar per quarter burn rate going forward (which is grossly inaccurate as there was a one-time expense associated with the costs of filing an NDA), Antares has 85.2 million dollars in cash, which means that it would take 17 quarters to drain through all of that cash. Antares is well able to weather the storm should the NDA not be approved, but I would consider this to be highly unlikely, as the Phase III results up to this point have been stellar. Also, the revenue of Antares is significant for a development stage company, as it provides a sort of cushion for Antares and substantially lessens its quarterly cash burn. The margins for OTREXUP are not clear, however; Antares consistently says that it has "strong margins" on device sales. The market opportunity of OTREXUP is huge, as there are over 5 million prescriptions written every year for MTX (per the presentation cited above). Obviously this would be huge news for a company with revenue like it has now. Market research even confirms that doctors believe that:"OTREXUP will address a significant need" as per its investor presentation.
OTREXUP could even later see its label expanded to include psoriasis, which is another avenue that the company is pursuing in clinical testing (please note that Psoriasis is not currently part of the NDA, the NDA is simply for Rheumatoid Arthritis). With all of these potential revenue bases for OTREXUP alone, the product represents a very substantial opportunity for Antares. As already addressed above, Antares has more than sufficient cash to wait out any sort of delays that the FDA could potentially throw at them.
As a quick recap of the Phase III results: the results found that people with moderate to severe hand function impairment were still able to safely inject the Antares injector. This is a huge plus, as normally these people would have to go to doctors' offices to receive the injections as their hands are not able to handle regular injectors. Furthermore, in another Phase III study the OTREXUP system showed an increase in, and a more consistent MTX systematic availability compared to Oral MTX. These positive studies help to show that Antares will very likely get the approval it seeks from the FDA, and if it doesn't, remember that Antares has enough cash to conduct more trials to likely get approval. Also of note about why approval should be easier for Antares is the fact that the drug MTX is by no means a new drug, it has been around for years and Antares is simply seeking approval for its OTREXUP device, which utilizes the MTX drug, not the drug itself.
However, Antares is not by any means a one-trick pony. Their research agreement with Pfizer (PFE) for an undisclosed drug presents a very interesting opportunity. It is an opportunity, which seems to be essentially overlooked. This product could provide revenues at a very high margin for Antares, given that their agreement is for a royalty. This seems not to be taken into account by the market, and as we see the product advance, I would not be surprised to see the PPS increase based solely on speculation as to what this product is. We will hopefully know more soon. There was some speculation on the conference call that it could be an Advil gel type product, however, the CEO refused to confirm this suspicion.
Antares also has Vibex QS T, which is a treatment for low testosterone, which could provide outstanding value for Antares in the future. Should it be successful in laying a foundation in the injectibles market with OTREXUP, that would give me very high hopes as to the ability of Antares to successfully market QS T.
Finally, there is one other product, which I would like to highlight, and that is the gel being researched by Biosante Pharmaceuticals (BPAX). This is a beautiful agreement for Antares, as ATRS will benefit if it is ever marketed and has to pay none of the costs associated with the clinical trials. Recently BPAX announced that Libigel failed to beat placebo in Phase III trials, which was as you might imagine a huge shocker to BPAX shareholders. ATRS also took a small hit, so the asset of Libigel is essentially considered to be worth nothing. With the way that Antares' other gels have been working in the market though for their marketing partners, I would not be surprised if it is found that this gel ultimately works. BPAX seems to be gearing up for another go-around with Libigel after it completes its recently announced merger. Libigel presents an asset which is not at all valued by the market, but which could also provide substantial revenue for Antares over the long term.
Another substantial market opportunity is the generic Epipen that Antares and Teva (TEVA) have been collaborating on, this product pursuant to recent litigation will be able to be launched on June 22nd, 2015 (pending ANDA approval). The market opportunity is important for Antares, as it will receive royalties on the product, which will help even more to change its cash burn rate.
With so many excellent products in Antares' pipeline, it is surprising that they have not been bought out in my opinion. They have strategic relationships with Teva, and have injectors, which could revolutionize the way in which we treat diseases all over the world, and ATRS has many different drugs, which could be adapted to these injectors. My message for longs is simply this, don't worry about the day-to-day price swings, or even about the missed earnings - it should not matter in a few years. Antares presents an excellent opportunity to get in on an innovative company, that is close to break-even (which helps to mitigate some of the downside) and has great depth in terms of its pipeline.
Things seem to go well? Anybody listening in?
FDA reviewers say Titan drug results not as strong as hoped
March 19, 2013 9:00 AM ET
http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20130319&id=16252159
March 19 (Reuters) - Titan Pharmaceuticals Inc's experimental drug to treat opioid addiction was shown to be more effective than placebo in a clinical trial, but the results were not as strong as might be hoped, reviewers for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said in documents published on Tuesday.
The reviewers' commentary was published on the FDA's website ahead of an advisory panel meeting to be held on Thursday. The reviewers said results of the trial prompt speculation that Titan's drug needs to be given at a higher dose and they asked the panel to advise on whether the company should explore dosing further before the product is approved.
Charlie, LOL! That's not fair, to go back to a single post and call me on it. Well, I'm still here, waiting for .029 to hit.
I'm typically more of a lurker and like most of you, have been around for more than 10 years. In most years (at least when Cal was around) I was able to buy at around 1 cent and sell it at 3. My only regret is that I didn't buy more each time. Even with all the uncertainty, it has been one of my better stocks to date. EVER
My earlier post just meant to emphasize that a 3-bagger a year is not a bad performance for a stock. Finance Managers brag about a lot less return than that.
A few months ago, I bought a few more shares at .0095 (not a lot were available) and now I'm waiting like the rest, hoping this time "just" for a double. We'll see.
Fascinating article on MM practices.
http://shockertrades.blogspot.com/2011/05/market-maker-speaks-out-ways-of-market.html
New Article: Run-Up Trade Into March FDA Panel
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11827815/1/titan-pharma-run-up-trade-into-march-fda-panel.html?puc=msn&cm_ven=msn
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Titan Pharmaceuticals (TTNP_) is developing Probuphine, a proprietary, long-acting form of the opioid dependence drug buprenorphine. Probuphine is implanted just under the skin of the upper arm and provides continuous delivery of drug for six months.
The FDA accepted Probuphine for priority review with an approval decision expected on April 30. Titan also expects FDA to convene an advisory panel to review Probuphine, likely in the second half of March.
Various oral forms of buprenorphine, including Suboxone, have been used to treat opioid dependence for years, with sales well in excess of $1 billion annually. But oral buprenorphine has its drawbacks, patients can forget to take their pills or choose to sell them illegally. Probuphine avoids these problems and should improve compliance.
Titan licensed U.S. and Canadian rights for Probuphine to Braeburn Pharma. Titan received $15.75 million upfront and is eligible for another $50 million if Probuphine earns FDA approval, plus additional milestone payments and double-digit royalties on sales. Braeburn has also committed $75 million towards commercial launch. Titan secured this licensing deal while their market cap was under $80 million, so the investment by Braeburn is substantial and meaningful.
With that setup, let's talk trading Titan. The first key event will be the FDA advisory panel in the second half of March. Run-up traders like myself love to trade FDA advisory panels because so much of the stock action is predictable. I expect Titan's stock price to continue to move higher the advisory panel nears. The FDA will release its Probuphine review two business days prior to the advisory panel meeting date, which is the opportunity for traders to safely exit with profits (hopefully.)
Titan is currently listed on the OTC bulletin boards but management said a Nasdaq listing is a 2013 goal. With shares running up to their advisory panel and their late April FDA approval decision date, up-listing to Nasdaq may be attainable in the near future.
Titan has enough cash from the Braeburn deal to carry it through the FDA advisory panel and its April 30 approval decision date. The U.S. market for buprenorphine was $1.3 billion in 2011 and growing. Titan estimates Probuphine sales could reach $300-500 million per year at peak.
Titan, with a low stock price, large potential commercial market and enough cash on hand, has all the ingredients for a beautiful run up into the advisory panel.
New Article: 3 Stocks to Get on Your Watchlist
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/01/30/3-stocks-to-get-on-your-watchlist-19.aspx
Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA )
I've thought a few times about taking the dive into Arena because of its potential blockbuster chronic weight management drug, Belviq. Last week, the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use, or CHMP, raised concerns about a potential Belviq approval in Europe and could be setting Arena up for the same fate as its competitor, VIVUS (NASDAQ: VVUS ) : a rejection.
The major concerns for the European panel revolved around tumors that developed in rats during trials, valvulopathy, and psychiatric events. Fool Keith Speights noted that the CHMP requested information on the tumors and valvulopathy in its Day 180 List of issues, but apparently the questions weren't answered to CHMP's satisfaction.
VIVUS' Qsymia was ultimately rejected because of CHMP's concerns and Belviq may be staring down a similar rejection if it can't properly address the panels' concerns. However, Belviq's also shown a relatively good safety profile -- at least from its studies -- that would suggest an ultimate approval in Europe, or at least an approval in the EU prior to Qsymia.
The big question mark in this sector has to do with insurance coverage. Aetna is already on board with VIVUS and Arena, and these two will need more insurers to join to reduce the out-of-pocket costs that patients seem unwilling to pay.
Overall, I'm not ready to pull the trigger on Arena just yet, but a few more drops like what we saw last week and I could be seriously interested. With the company having a solid partner in Eisai, I project Arena to be the leader in anti-obesity sales within a year.
What's going on? I can't find any news!
NEW ARTICLE: Orexigen's Secondary & Analysts' Lack Of Objectivity In Coverage Of Arena
http://beta.fool.com/beatlesforever/2012/10/24/orexigens-secondary-analysts-lack-of-objectivity-i/15158/
By Reza Ganjavi - October 24, 2012 | Tickers: ARNA, BAC, CS, OREX, BA, VVUS | 6 Comments
Reza is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.
Today Orexigen Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OREX) announced a proposed public offering of common stock. Surprise, surprise! Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS)? and BofA Merrill Lynch ("ML") (NYSE: BAC) are two of the three book-running managers for the offering. Both Credit Suisse and Merrill Lynch have been promoting OREX with what appeared to me to be inflated price targets.
By the same token, both CS & ML have been wrong in issuing bearish sentiments on Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ARNA) which to the disappointment of some bankers has indicated it does not plan to issue new shares. Arena's bears got a big slap back in June, and they're about to get another one.
Arena has a strong cash position and a strong stream of upcoming income with sales of Belviq starting in the next few months pending DEA scheduling which many expect should be announced any day (see letters written to the DEA). Arena therefore has no business to give to big banks. This is enough to make banks turn a cold shoulder to a company. Many people assume that coverage, and particularly good coverage, goes along with getting business.
Add to this two other factors that could make big brokers even colder about Arena, but on the surface -- and that's key. Deep inside they may be very warm!
1) Some 47 Million shares of Arena are shorted because a huge short position was established betting on non-approval but shorts lost that bet - and then they've tried to raise their sales-basis by shorting more. Perhaps a delay at the DEA is their last hope. A 47 Million share short position carries what I estimate to be close to a Billion dollar loss for shorts. That's equivalent to all the money Arena has ever spent developing Belviq! With that kind of potential loss, some hedge funds out there are not having fun watching ARNA gain in price and here's the second item:
2) Institutional ownership for ARNA is at 31.6%. It has gone up from 20 something percent before approval and I estimate it will go to over 60%. That means current institutional ownership will have to about double.
Put 1) and 2) together and you get an explosive situation for short sellers. Even if the general market goes down with a low institutional% and Arena's low Beta, shorts can't count on institutions to sell due to market weakness.
Those hedge funds who are short, and the institutions who want to double their position are clients of some brokers and those brokers need to, according to how things work on Wall Street, have a bearish sentiment on ARNA until their short clients cover and until their long clients effectively double their position.
I am not accusing ML and CS to be doing this -- we simply do not know -- but what we do know is the comedy of these companies' analysts issuing ridiculously low price targets for ARNA, backed by reasoning which are even more comical. And it even gets more interesting: as of last reporting period, CS increased its holding of ARNA by 161% shares!
In his first research report, Credit Suisse's analyst Lee Kalowski's had so many shortcomings in his analysis that we had to write a 12-point rebuttle to correct him (see appendix). Also in the same article
In a subsequent note, again issuing a ridiculously low price target and more low-quality analysis, Kalowski cited "lower mean efficacy" and "valvulopathy" as approval risks in Europe. This shows Kalowski did not understand the receptor study data that FDA used to rule out valvulopathy risks and the fact that Belviq's efficacy is indeed very good.
While the medical community believes a modest 5% weight loss can have significant improvements on overall health, two trials of Belviq showed completers lost an average of 8% of body weight and responders lost between 11% and 12% of body weight in a year. The top 25% of weight losers lost an average of 35 pounds in one year. This is spectacular. Wall Street can go around trumpeting against Belviq's efficacy but that's simply a lie. Doctors understand Belviq's efficacy can be wonderful for responders and they ultimately determine the sales amount not many Wall Street analysts who've been consistently wrong about Arena.
While European approval is not a slam dunk I believe it is highly probable due to Belviq's superior safety profile, strong efficacy, and the unmet medical need.
Another Credit Suisse / Kalowski comedy is the following phrase:
"Kalowski wrote that early sales of Qsymia and Belviq could be slow because Vivus, Arena, and Arena's partner Takeda Pharmaceutical are launching the drugs with small sales force". Well Takeda might end up being Arena's partner in the future but today, a) Eisai is Arena's partner and b) Eisai's sales force size is not comparable to Vivus'! Eisai's sales force is much bigger and they have experience in this space and selling several blockbuster drugs and Belviq will probably become their next blockbuster! So Credit Suisse is wrong, again!
Cowen & Co. analyst Simos Simeonidis was on record for saying patients tolerate Qsymia better than Belviq, which is simple nonsense. He continued his FUD after a conference bashing Belviq's efficacy without providing any basis for his "survey" which can be highly unscientific specially given the confirmation biases.
Vivus (NASDAQ: VVUS) has gotten its own share of hype for a long time by analysts and journalists while insiders sell massive number of shares. The top institutional shareholders of Vivus are two hedge funds including QVT Financial and not that it necessarily matters but its General Counsel is a cousin of one of Jim Cramer's sidekicks. Regardless, Cramer's organization has been involved in repeatedly bashing Arena. His disregard for truth discredits his "thestreet.com" and "mad money show".
How much do bearish sentiment have to do with Arena's prospects vs. a) the company not needing to raise money b) shorts facing a Billion dollar loss c) institutions wanting to double their position? Before FDA approval we read lots of bearish arguments too - Arena bears were all proven then, they'll be proven wrong again. The stock has a lot of upside potential with many catalysts which I've discussed in my other MF articles.
Wall Street can play all the games it wants but meanwhile shorts need to cover and institutions need to buy. I got an email from an attorney-investor today who said "I have lived through several biotech short squeezes and this one will be bigger than any."
Found on another board. Sorry, there was no source:
The Anatomy of a Short Attack — Abusive shorting are not random acts of a renegade hedge funds, but rather a coordinated business plan that is carried out by a collusive consortium of hedge funds and prime brokers, with help from their friends at the DTC and major clearinghouses. Potential target companies are identified, analyzed and prioritized. The attack is planned to its most minute detail.
The plan consists of taking a large short position, then crushing the stock price, and, if possible, putting the company into bankruptcy. Bankrupting the company is a short homerun because they never have to buy real shares to cover and they don’t pay taxes on the ill-gotten gain.
When it is time to drive the stock price down, a blitzkrieg is unleashed against the company by a cabal of short hedge funds and prime brokers. The playbook is very similar from attack to attack, and the participating prime brokers and lead shorts are fairly consistent as well.
Typical tactics include the following:
1. Flooding the offer side of the board — Ultimately the price of a stock is found at the balance point where supply (offer) and demand (bid) for the shares find equilibrium. This equation happens every day for every stock traded. On days when more people want to buy than want to sell, the price goes up, and, conversely, when shares offered for sale exceed the demand, the price goes down.
The shorts manipulate the laws of supply and demand by flooding the offer side with counterfeit shares. They will do what has been called a short down ladder. It works as follows: Short A will sell a counterfeit share at $10. Short B will purchase that counterfeit share covering a previously open position. Short B will then offer a short (counterfeit) share at $9. Short A will hit that offer, or short B will come down and hit Short A’s $9 bid. Short A buys the share for $9, covering his open $10 short and booking a $1 profit.
By repeating this process the shorts can put the stock price in a downward spiral. If there happens to be significant long buying, then the shorts draw from their reserve of “strategic fails-to-deliver” and flood the market with an avalanche of counterfeit shares that overwhelm the buy side demand. Attack days routinely see eighty percent or more of the shares offered for sale as counterfeit. Company news days are frequently attack days since the news will “mask” the extraordinary high volume. It doesn’t matter whether it is good news or bad news.
Flooding the market with shares requires foot soldiers to swamp the market with counterfeit shares. An off-shore hedge fund devised a remarkably effective incentive program to motivate the traders at certain broker dealers
2. Media assault — The shorts, in order to realize their profit, must ultimately purchase real shares at a price much cheaper than what they shorted at. These real shares come from the investing public who panics and sells into the manipulation. Panic is induced with assistance from the financial media.
The shorts have “friendly” reporters with the Dow Jones News Agency, the Wall Street Journal, Barrons, the New York Times, Gannett Publications (USA Today and the Arizona Republic), CNBC and others. The common thread: A number of the “friendly” reporters worked for The Street.com, an Internet advisory service that hedge-fund managers David Rocker and Jim Cramer owned. This alumni association supported the short attack by producing slanted, libelous, innuendo laden stories that disparaged the company, as it was being crashed.
One of the more outrageous stories was a front-page story in USA Today during a short crash of TASER’s stock price in June 2005. The story was almost a full page and the reporter concluded that TASER’s electrical jolt was the same as an electric chair — proof positive that TASERs did indeed kill innocent people.
To reach that conclusion the reporter over estimated the TASER’s amperage by a factor of one million times. This “mistake” was made despite a detailed technical briefing by TASER to seven USA Today editors two weeks prior to the story. The explanation “Due to a mathematical error” appeared three days later — after the damage was done to the stock price.
Jim Cramer, in a video-taped interview with The Street.com, best described the media function:
When (shorting) … The hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful, because the truth is so against your view, (so the hedge funds) create a new ‘truth’ that is development of the fictionâ€| you hit the brokerage houses with a series of orders (a short down ladder that pushes the price down), then we go to the press. You have a vicious cycle down — it’s a pretty good game.
This interview, which is more like a confession, was never supposed to get on the air, however, it somehow ended up on YouTube. Cramer and The Street.com have made repeated efforts, with some success, to get it taken off of YouTube.
3. Analyst Reports — Some alleged independent analysts were actually paid by the shorts to write slanted negative ratings reports. The reports, which were represented as being independent, were ghost written by the shorts and disseminated to coincide with a short attack. There is congressional testimony in the matter of Gradiant Analytic and Rocker Partners that expands upon this. These libelous reports would then become a story in the aforementioned “friendly” media. All were designed to panic small investors into selling their stock into the manipulation.
FDA Warns of Rising Risks of Online Pharmacies
By Linda A. Johnson, The Associated Press
The Food and Drug Administration is warning U.S. consumers that the vast majority of Internet pharmacies are fraudulent and likely are selling counterfeit drugs that could harm them.
The agency on Friday launched a national campaign, called BeSafeRx, to alert the public to the danger, amid evidence that more people are shopping for their medicine online, looking for savings and convenience.
Instead, they're likely to get fake drugs that are contaminated, are past their expiration date or contain no active ingredient, the wrong amount of active ingredient or even toxic substances such as arsenic and rat poison. They could sicken or kill people, cause them to develop a resistance to their real medicine, cause new side effects or trigger harmful interactions with other medications being taken.
"Our goal is to increase awareness," FDA Commissioner Dr. Margaret Hamburg told The Associated Press, "not to scare people away from online pharmacies. We want them to use appropriate pharmacies."
That means pharmacies that are located in the U.S., are licensed by the pharmacy board in the patient's state and have a licensed pharmacist available to answer questions. In addition, the pharmacy must require a valid doctor's prescription for the medicine. Online drugstores that claim none is needed, or that the site's doctor can write a prescription after the customer answers some questions, are breaking the law.
Research by the National Association of Boards of Pharmacy, which represents the state pharmacy boards, found that of thousands of online pharmacies it reviewed, only about 3 percent follow state and federal laws. In fact, the group's website lists only a few dozen Internet pharmacies that it has verified are legitimate and following the rules.
Most consumers don't know that. An Internet survey, conducted by the FDA in May, questioned 6,090 adults. It found that nearly one in four Internet shoppers has bought prescription drugs online, and nearly three in 10 said they weren't confident they could do so safely.
The campaign comes after some high-profile cases of counterfeit drugs reaching American patients earlier this year.
In February and again in April, the FDA warned doctors and cancer clinics around the country that it had determined they had bought fake Avastin, a pricey injectable cancer medicine, from a "gray market" wholesaler. The fake Avastin vials originated in Asia or Eastern Europe and were transferred through a network of shady wholesalers before being sold to clinics by a wholesaler claiming to be in Montana.
In another case, the FDA issued a warning in May after learning consumers shopping on the Internet had bought fake versions of generic Adderall, a popular medication for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.
No deaths or serious injuries have been linked to those fakes, but Hamburg notes that when drugs don't help patients get better, doctors usually blame the disease or assume a different medicine is needed. That means most fakes aren't detected.
So the FDA, which has put increasing focus on the counterfeiting problem, on Friday launched a website, www.FDA.gov/BeSafeRx , that shows consumers how to determine if an online pharmacy is safe.
"Buying prescription medicine from a fake online pharmacy can be dangerous, or even deadly," the site warns.
It includes tips on how to spot illegal pharmacies, links to state databases of licensed pharmacies and explanations of all the dangers of rogue pharmacies. Besides likely getting fake drugs, that includes the risk that they will infect your computer with viruses, sell your personal and financial information to other rogue websites and Internet scammers, or charge you for products you never ordered or received.
Many rogue pharmacies claim to be in Canada — because Americans know medicines are cheaper there and assume that's why they're getting a deal. Many fraudulent sites even put the word Canada in their name, or display the Canadian flag prominently on the site. Their web storefronts are slick and look professional. And they all offer prices that are unbelievably low.
"If the low prices seem too good to be true, they probably are,' Hamburg said.
The FDA is collaborating with several other federal agencies and departments and even Interpol in the campaign, Hamburg said, and it has asked medical and pharmaceutical industry groups to join in.
It's also reaching out to doctors, pharmacists and medical facilities to spread the word. They'll get access to materials they can download, from patient fact sheets and discussion guides to sample blog items and web banners for a practice's own website. There's also a list of tips to help doctors determine if a patient may be buying medicine online.
The agency will do a follow-up survey to see if the campaign's message is reaching the public.
"What's truly important to us is that consumers know how to look for an online pharmacy that's legitimate and safe," Hamburg said.
http://vitals.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/28/14140712-fda-warns-of-rising-risks-of-online-pharmacies?lite
This is my first time posting here, but I have been with FASC since before the famous run up to $.75. I can't believe how many years ago that was.
Anyway, I love this stock. To date, it has been one of my most successfully traded stocks. Each and every year since the run up it has provided me with an opportunity to double my money. Like clockwork, it will hit $.015 or $.013 and within the year go to at least $.03 and many years even $.04!
What other stock gives you that kind of a return? Sure, I always keep a position for when we go "to da moon", but in the meanwhile, my strategy helps me pass the time and make money off of it until we hit it big.
I currently hold shares at $.015 from right after the last run up in spring. It took quite a few days to buy them, but eventually I got them. I don't fret, when they charge me 4-5 commissions. I can't monitor my account closely from work and as long as I get my shares cheaply the commission won't make a huge dent into the profits. So I've already put in my sell orders all the way up to $.45 (yes, I'm an optimist) and kick back until they hit. I betcha, my first sell at $.029 will hit by next spring. LOL, it always does. Who knows maybe one of these days those higher sells will hit, too!
Good luck to you all and thank you for your work of keeping us informed.
LOL! I guess you're right. I misunderstood that last sentence.
WTF???? I know he hates ARNA, but this is ridiculous.
8/28/2012 Biotech Stock Predictions: An Interim Report Card
By Adam Feuerstein
"9. FDA rejects obesity drugs from Arena Pharmaceuticals(ARNA_) and Vivus(VVUS_) for a second time.
I nailed this prediction, too. To my foot, through the floor. Ouch."
Here is the link. It's on page 2.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11676815/1/2012-biotech-stock-predictions-an-interim-report-card.html?puc=msn&cm_ven=msn