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Short term, sure. Long term, no.
219.05 and 223.85 are the two points I'm watching closely for exit.
We're reaching the top of the wedge. It will have to perform a breakout to beat the main trend. We're not there yet, but we're getting close.
And I was spot on, as the main baseline inched upward from this original post.
So calling Jan 2023 bottom, last summer's top, and now this bottom.
3 for 3. See you all above 200 by January 2025.
Technical analysis doesn't lie.
Called this bottom months ago
Just as an aside, doom and gloom on earnings is priced in. April 26th I'm looking for the correction back up.
0.51 eps is generously low and I expect it to beat that.
Imagine if.... fed pauses in June instead of cutting rates. Nvidia earnings beat expectations. And inflation isn't over.
Add these together and... look out below. May rally on Nvidia. June drop. That's what I see here.
I am considering loading up more on this 141 premarket drop
Trendlines.
Matching the line from before the first rally that gave Tesla prominent market dominance, Jan 2023's bottom and every retracement I've ran with fib sequence in this last downtrend, we've hit the bottom on the descending wedge. Stop losses set for 135. If it sets a new trend and breaks into uncharted territory, I'll enter in lower. But being short from 299 to 147, gave me some lee-way to mess this up a little.
$200 calls for Jan 2025 is the wisest move here.
Hit my target I called months ago. This is the bottom. Closed my short and going full bullish here.
This aged well. Further downside ahead.
Not anymore. Took too long to dip. Trend broken. Down we go.
We will see 994.79 and it comes back lower and retests at 960.64. All charting supports these lines.
183.19 before we continue moving lower. The descending wedge intersects at 144.07. Just in time for earnings.
517.19 before it sees new highs.
Oh hi. It's 900 again... :)
Loaded up more. Got some in at 883. There's zero chance they don't continue to pause on rates in my mind. Descending wedge, and we're at the breakout point.
Last hour today is going to be interesting to watch.
And just like that I'm back in, $15 cheaper, and lighter on my position. 5% instead of 20%, depending on the news.
Why miss a gain from bot selling at 900 and buying back in lower? It's been obvious consolidation since March 11th when it recoiled off of the main trend line. Missed opportunities and staying passive is how people stay broke. Just my $0.02
I liquidated everything. Will reload during the meeting. Prefer not to gamble or invest with a shaky climate in the market. Made enough, that I can risk leaving a little on the table should it bounce upward. Prefer to seize on the panic before the meeting and a little during it. If the market reels back and runs south, plenty of room to ride it down.
Being liquid for tomorrow afternoon feels like the best position.
Still in the wedge.
Someone wake me when consolidation is over Zzzz
SMCI Sell-off kind of set a lot of momentum across all chips. Interesting an equity sale spurr3d a 12% drop though.
Trimming some at 900 or the morning rush. Haven't decided yet. I don't like having this much exposure.
A little trimming here and there. 910s and 920s felt like a good spot to reduce. Just getting back in from the ones I took from 822-865 and flipped. I didn't know how I felt about robinhood for a high risk account, but the overnight opportunities are great.
Agreed. We're on track. Last chance here. Adding another volley to my position.
Time to reload. Going 20% in
If we retrace back above 188.38 I'll change my tune and say the worst is behind us, but not a penny less as of right now.
Fair chance of that. In the meantime, I need new kicks... ;) Nike does a great job at surprising market. It definitely did during covid. It and FedEx has promising earnings coming up. But I'll take Nike over FedEx. UPS is way better. They actually train their drivers, union wages, competent workforce. I'd be happier if FedEx never got a dime from me. But Nike is a brand name like Macy's that just won't die. Even if the chatter on Nvidia doesn't produce much, because what do they have until next earnings, after this? There's still other opportunities. I do anticipate more pullbacks now that it's apparent that even the impossible bull rally can slip up.
One thing that definitely enticed me after this PPI report was the energy sector. Producer costs going up were largely in part to oil, and other raw goods. Copper especially jumped. Until those come back down, I don't have a high hope in a better PPI, because a hot CPI follows when PPI is bad. We all know companies like to pass the buck onto consumers when price margins contract.
Yeah Powell has a mess on his hands for sure right now. The rate pause was oil related. Average days of oil left was 30-40 until September 2023, it fell to 17. Well... that's kind of what spurred a lot of what we're all seeing right now. Oil is still king and I have an inkling it's only going to get worse. It's a shame people still think it's a "fossil fuel." Fossils stop at the sedimentary layer and oil is drilled more often from way further below into granite. It's the "resin" if you will, leftover from thermostatic exchange of rock to magma and back in the sweet spot temp +/- 1 degree from solid to liquid. Byproduct that we just will never be able to consume fast enough.
Kind of like how water can be solid, liquid, and gas all at once at the perfect temp and pressure. But Rockefeller wasn't dumb. Coin it fossil fuels and make it seem like it's scarce so you can jack the price through the roof. Old reservoirs that were emptied, refilling over and over. The more you know... anywho.
We're in a very interesting transition phase. If Powell can beat the rising energy costs, the rally will continue! But I don't personally believe it's in the cards, unless this starts to get very political.
I'm inclined to say that the broader market will trend down more. Chips may stilt it up, but Wednesday will be interesting...
Projecting a very bad Thursday-Friday.
PPI is more important than CPI and is a good reason for rush into gold. Producer cost means more than consumer cost. The fact that we didn't trade lower is worrisome. It may impact June cuts and we might see a structure shift away from this rally, cooling off until June. Fed meeting Wednesday offering any insight will highly impact the end of the week into next week. NVDA might rally, but I consider this, long term to be the first significant notch on the post against euphoria of higher highs.
Thanks bud. There's a video on Nvindar, the guy responsible for that flash crash in 2010. I still remember watching the news the day that happened and no one knew why. I thought to myself, short sell manipulation to the extreme?! Hackers hit the market?
But he's a case example of unseen elements, spoofing the bid ask to bait algorithms way off track. Fundamentals can be sound. I use those for the broad structure of the market: uptrend, downtrend, range- sideways. And quarterly, if not semi annual shifts. Trend lines that end up looking like spiderwebs with multiple "possibility zones." The low of this week was a big pivot for a lot of my lines for this week.
The big picture feeds the smaller picture, where watching prior support and resistance from weeks past as hard lines in the sand, last minute's resistance becoming this minute's support or the inverse. If y is crossed, but not x, maybe it'll reach z. But if x is crossed, I expect it to hit w more than I expect it to hit z. It it hits z, it's very more likely to hit w than go further above z. Planning exits before entries. Aspergers superpower I guess.
Fundamentals are great for the long term. Absolutely. They have staying power through crashes. Crashes are more geared to short term play. Yeah longs take a hit, but March 13th-15th 2021 is just a blip compared to 08, and dotcom. Longs from 1995 just blink at it and go: ok.... and?
Day trading to me is 9% preparation 1% execution and 90% temperance. Fail to plan, plan to fail. If you disregard the plan, why plan at all? It's fun, but the worst part is enduring when you're wrong and how fast one can react to changing atmosphere when they are. The perma bull-bear will always have horrible market days.
As of right now, I'm a bull at 135.49 here. The absolute bottom trendline matching Jan 2023 would signify immediate reversal. Every day that ticks by, I'm in a little higher.
To be fair, I anticipated a green Monday for spy earlier, but even I am second guessing it. The MM's did really well at hiding their open this time.
Option expiration. There's been so much negative news in 3 years, but the rate pause mirrors 1995-1999. 1 rate cut then 3 month pause. NVDA is coiling up.
I anticipate a failed breakdown on Monday before we jump up.
860s here at absolute worst. If it's below that, selling before the news will definitely shake me out.
494 on SPY will be critical.
Russian election
Fed meeting 2:30 Wednesday
Jensen speaks at market close Monday 4pm
NVDA panel at 1 Wednesday
If spy breaks 494 I will be looking for re-entry in support lines.
If this opens up with little selling, I'll ride the positions I have and look for trimming before re-entry.
We got a failed breakout and a failed breakdown here in the afternoon. So it's shaking up IV without a doubt bud.
Planning for all exit possibilities is the only thing I can suggest now.
This is just criminal, but it's algorithms.
Although we are at the bottom of the trend line, so do expect some buying in for the coming week. Just my 2 cents.
The algorithm still has peaks and valleys. The bigger the drop, the bigger the pop as they say. The resistance at 508 spoke pretty loudly and the consistency on sell vs buy volume... I'm not betting against Blackrock computer AI.
Ahhh here it was.