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Well if TV in Europe already finished the investigation and has the findings, I have not heard about that. We will see but I am betting that it goes beyond missing training. If the plane requires additional training in order to stop the plane from doing something it is not supposed to, like nosing down and crashing, than it is a problem that goes way beyond training.
Data from the black box is already coming out. It was reported that the black box data shows similarities between the two crashes.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ethiopia-plane-crash-funeral-1.5059971
Boeing may (probably will) catch a huge break if fault is found with the FAA. Which lets be clear, you cannot have Beoing at fault and not the FAA unless Boeing falsified or otherwise knowingly provided the FAA with bad information. I have little doubt that Boeing pushed the FAA to get the 737 max certified for flying but it is still the FAA's responsibility not Boeings.
If the FAA is found at fault, it could greatly limit punitive damages as well as any sanctions/restrictions that Boeing would otherwise face. Not only that, but it could give an out to get Boeing planes flying sooner. As a people, we like nothing better than to have someone to blame. Sure the FAA gets a black eye but it is very difficult to sue the federal government, especially the FAA. It would still be very costly for Boeing but not as bad as it could be.
We will see
You are not alone brother
Prosecutors, Transportation Department Scrutinize Development of Boeing's 737 MAX- Link below
While the Forbes writer provides his self serving opinion, feds appear to have other ideas. Here are some highlights:
-A grand jury in Washington, D.C., issued a broad subpoena dated March 11 to at least one person involved in the 737 MAX's development, seeking related documents, including correspondence, emails and other messages, one of these people said. (FYI, Broad subpoena are bad)
-The Justice Department probe involves a prosecutor in the fraud section of the department's criminal division, a unit that has brought cases against well-known manufacturers over safety issues, including Takata Corp. (Bad airbags-company sued into bankruptcy)
-The Transportation Department's inquiry was launched in the wake of the Lion Air accident and is being conducted by its inspector general, which has warned two FAA offices to safeguard computer files, according to people familiar with the matter. The internal watchdog is seeking to determine whether the agency used appropriate design standards and engineering analyses in certifying the anti-stall system, known as MCAS.
- Officials in those offices have been told not to delete any emails, reports or internal messages pertaining to those topics, people familiar with the matter said, adding that the probe also is scrutinizing communication between the FAA and Boeing.
-The Department of Transportation inquiry is casting a wide net for documents about potential agency lapses just as House and Senate committees prepare for public hearings in the coming weeks that are expected to grill the FAA's senior leadership on the same topics.
-The DOT inquiry is likely to raise more questions about how Boeing designed the airliner, how pilots are trained to fly it and the decisions the FAA took approving the model. The result could be changes to how the FAA certifies aircraft models, particularly giving more scrutiny to design changes from earlier models.
-Boeing has been advocating comparatively limited training, the people said, consisting of new, written materials aviators would receive explaining operation of the automated stall-prevention feature -- and how to respond if it malfunctions.
-Outside experts now contend both Boeing and the FAA underestimated the accompanying risks -- and installed a system that wasn't highlighted in manuals or pilot training.
If I were Boeing, I would be concerned that all of the documents collected in this criminal investigation will bring to light, issues that will be used in the many civil lawsuits that will be coming up. One benefit may be Boeings ability to shift some blame to FAA.
Full article
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/boeing-BA/stock-news/79494436/prosecutors-transportation-department-scrutinize
It was two crashes not just one and I am sure pilot error will be looked at. So will any flaws in equipment, software, training and technical manuals.
My earlier response was in pointing out that current news has nothing to do with "Shorts". What we are seeing now are news reports revolving around 2 horrific plane crashes that resulted in huge loss of life and the manufacturer (Boeing) may have some culpability.
Earlier reviews of radar showed very similar erratic flight paths of both crashes. Yesterday we had a report that initial review of the latest black shows additional parallels between the two crashes.
We are talking news stories here not articles written by analysts who play the short side. You have huge loss of life and it looks like Boeing may be responsible.
Your comparison would apply if we were looking at a known problem with a knows solution and nobody died in the two crashes. The liability that we are talking about goes far beyond lost revenue while planes are grounded. I think a better example would be GM lawsuits as they related to ignition switch. I think it was 125 deaths followed by $2.6b judgement.
Even if BA is found NOT to be at fault in any way, it is going to take months to figure it out. In addition, the French are in charge of the investigation. This is important because you have 35 countries represented in these crashes and these countries, lead by France would love nothing more than to find fault with the United States. What the French wont do is come out and say "Pilot error, not Boeing's fault". They may say "We need more time" or more likely, "A clear cause has yet to be identified but we have concerns with some mechanical component". My guess is, you will also have airlines canceling orders, maybe to renegotiate after the smoke clears. I also assume the sales contract between Boeing and the airlines have penalties due to economic loss if planes are not delivered or in this case, grounded/un-flyable.
Assuming BA is found at fault the lawsuits will go on for years. We will be looking at a situation where BA was effectively put on notice that a problem existed. You have the first plane crash and previous to that, you had at least 5 pilots complain about the 737 max. These complaints were specific to areas being looked into now, including documentation and training. (Again, comparing this to GM is more appropriate).
You are going to have lawsuits from victim families, Airlines, insurance companies and many others. No way to even know how high the punitive damages could go.
Who is going to be running interference for Boeing? FAA (not a chance) and our political environment is such that both Democrats and Republicans will be hammering on Boeing if they are found at fault because they will want to show how compassionate they are. Big business and the rich are easy targets these days.
At the end of the day, it is too early to see how deep the rabbit hole goes.
I am not long or short Boeing but will look for an entry point if it pulls back enough.
Much riskier to go long. BA has been getting blasted all weekend long. Perception is reality. Even if software update fixes whatever the problem is, lawsuits from victim families, airlines and others.
Planes are going to be grounded for a while and lawsuit overhang will last for much longer.
Thanks for the response. I am seeing consolidation. Candle sticks are riding the top line and not the bottom. Definitely looks like consolidation from our over bought technicals. The channel is nice and tight, low volatility. I am not a day trader so it will be interesting to see how your short position here pans out.
Great. Are you calling your shot and shorting here or just talking? Is this a pure technical play? Where would you cover?
Good morning all.
Just checking in on the boards. I usually read them but dont post when I do not have anything to add. Nothing has changed as far as my NGL holdings, 21,650 shares, sold 110 (contracts) covered calls, July $15.00. NGL is holding up very nicely considering we are in the dead period between earnings. We usually sell off at this time but not this time (so far). Oil is holding up which helps our pricing and we are consolidating here.
I have no idea where we head over the next 30 days but nothing woulds shock me but a pullback below $12.50 would surprise me a little. If we do get any decent pullback in the next 30 days and I can buy my call options back for .25 cents I will. I bought them for .45 so it would be a nice profit plus I think I could sell them back again when we rise into earnings.
NGL has made some great moves and I think big players will start jumping no board going into earnings. Last quarter was fantastic and with the moves they continue to make, I would expect others to start getting in on NGL before next earnings are announced. If NGL can put together another good quarter, it will be a huge game changer. It is easy for the naysayers to down play a good quarter but very difficult to downplay two in a row.
I am very excited to see how the new wholesale propane and butane business will pan out.
Good luck all and have a nice weekend
Also have huge call option action for March $12.50 and July $15. The recent trading has been great (IMO), reflects consolidation and decompression. While Williams% shows over sold, RSI still reflects overbought, this does not happen often. Loving it
Not the hardest call to make on shorting this.
Unethical management (they get fined for a reason, #1 selling tobacco to minors), increased competition and sector headwinds. With all of that said, you should cover a short position here. Sure would not buy her but if I wanted to own this, I would see if it gets to $57 or so.
UBS maintains sell rating. price target $65.
Maybe they should quit selling tobacco products to kids. ridiculous to think management was not aware. they know where every dollar comes from
Sounds good to me
About time to go short on this
Not sure. We have seen drops like yesterday before. Funds exiting a position or rebalancing in an etf or whatever. I think the NGL weakness is short lived and probably a gift if someone is adding. First, we are usually weak and fade after div. Second, we had the downgrade, which is crazy because they downgraded NGL to hold, while upping the price target to $15. Third, oil has been weak, including today. Fourth, I think yesterday was either a fund exiting a position or rebalancing of some etf holding NGL.
What I am excited about is my expectation that NGL will rise into earnings, closing in on $15 (just a guess). NGL has had one disappointing quarter after another until last breakout earnings. If NGL has another good quarter it changes the whole dynamic of NGL. One quarter can be a fluke, but two is starting to confirm a trend. I dont think anyone doubts that NGL being at $16 if management can be trusted to meet estimates. I think you will have funds/traders adding into earnings, anticipating NGL taking off if they can have another good quarter. I also expect shorts to start taking the NGL position off. Would you want to be short NGL going into earnings? I would not be surprised if some are trying to push NGL down in order to get a better price to exit a short position.
I am a big fan of selling covered calls. As of right now, I sold 110 contracts, July $15, at an average price of .45. I will cover if they get to .05 but be prepared to cover very quickly if NGL has another blockbuster qtr. This is what I did last time and did ok on the trade. I really like selling covered calls in my IRA. It is one of the few ways to add funds to a retirement account.
Never trade on what I say, I am just posting thoughts and ideas. Pure speculation on my point.
Thanks man. I did add 650 shares over the last few days with an Avg price of #13.11. It was a no brainer. I have sold 90 July $12.50 covered calls at .40. Sold those when the stock was about $12.40 (I think). If I can get a good price (option to stock price) I will sell more.
Jugs,
I think reaching out to these folks is an excellent idea. My suggestion would be to write more than a note. I really doubt any of these authors/SA contributors know more about NGL than you. Highlighting the facts on why you would like to see them review NGL may go along way. Just my two cents.
You dont have to convince me but to do so, you would have to address the other legal issues, such as what I outlined before:
WBA was fined $34 Million for misleading investors. WBA is now under watch by the feds as they have already been caught inappropriately billing Medicare and Medicaid and fined appx 270 Million or more.
These are things management has been found guilty of, now another lawsuit could be coming down the road. You want to buy it, do so. Personally, I do not buy stock in companies with shady management.
picked up 300 @13.09, will pick up more of it breaks below 12.75
no but they habe been fined for previous wrong doing so you have to look at the complete picture
I had said before that I found WBA management to be suspect, it appears others do as well
NEW YORK, Feb. 20, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Purcell Julie & Lefkowitz LLP, a class action law firm dedicated to representing shareholders nationwide, is investigating a potential breach of fiduciary duty claim involving the board of directors of Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA).
NEW YORK, Feb. 20, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Purcell Julie & Lefkowitz LLP, a class action law firm dedicated to representing shareholders nationwide, is investigating a potential breach of fiduciary duty claim involving the board of directors of Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBA).
I hope we reach $15 but I figure we will have some Traders step in and scalp some profit.
What I would suggest is that folks think hard about having any kind of stoploss order going for NGL. We have seen in the past that profit taking can happen fast, causing the stock to fall far and fast (because of stoploss orders), only to recover the next day. We had a recent (few weeks ago) low of $10.50 (or so) and have gained almost $3.50. It would not shock me to see us give up half that, again, only to recover over a period of a day or two.
Another option would be to have a tight stoploss, either way, just something to think about
I have been watching brother.
Less than two months ago, remember this Jugs?
Just read the last paragraph folks. When times were rocky, Capt. Jugs was calling to stay calm and ride out the storm
Its getting less risky but I think we all understand it. Trying to figure out what to do with all of the cash I am making.
Possible but doubtful. Management has been clear that increasing the div while the stock is trading at the current price, is not warranted.
yes, debt reduction has been a major focus over the last year. paying off low interest debt shows how far they have come.
That was good. I bought back 90 contracts at a loss of $900 but on 2/7 when we pulled back and the short players started posting, I bought 500 shares at $10.55 (I posted the trade that day) and that has more than made up for it. Overall, options have added nicely to my account. I did sell the July $15 for .40 today.
I will say, when the shorts start posting, it has been a perfect time to buy.
Guess you did not goof Player.
Yeah but its up 300% from your last post.
Nice man, like to see people making money
Interesting, huge volume on March $12.50 calls, yesterday open interest was 400. Today, almost 5,000 contracts purchased. Someone likes what NGL is doing and placing a big bet it will move up fast.
My wife and I have a deal, if we get any goats, I get to name them.
I think before we get any SA articles, the SA contributors will buy shares first, then pump NGL. It will take a few days/weeks before analyst/investment professionals get to go through all of the earnings reports and find the gems like NGL.
NGL is a great turnaround story and I think it can be said that management is fixing their reputation of over promising and under delivering.
What a great qtr. Grand slam
Now we made it all back plus the last Div that was paid out. I hope this helps you feel better about NGL.
Closing at the high of the day is always positive.
As time goes on, it is clear to me who understands NGL and who does not. Clearly longs understand the risk. Its nice to have folks like Jugs, Pete and others who help to navigate the rough waters of a stock on a turnaround course.