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OK LAST CHANCES TO COVER COMING UP!
Now or beware.
Probably shorts are going to cover this afternoon
Answer to: What is the current NVIV stock structure?
There are only 26.2M shares in this low-floater which is why the market cap is pretty low for its PPS. Upon reported positive developments, this stock can and has taken off like a banshee.
NASDAQ Global Markets member.
Please also keep in mind that a good number of institutional investors have bought up shares in the $15 and $16 dollar ranges. The current low price is way oversold due to recent macro trends and technical movements only. Now is the time to load up. The institutions will want to see this north of $30. My fair value target is $29 based upon the current developmental fundamentals. However, with additional positive results from patients and encouraging regulatory news, my PT will rise past the mid-thirties. One more noteworthy item to know is the company is in a superb financial condition, with access to as many as four years runway (as much as 1.5 years cash plus additional backup) but is closer to that in getting to revenue stage.
NVIV BULLISH call reiterated
My call is based on solid fundamentals. Do not expect instantaneous action when confounded by conflicting technicals caused by macro market trends. There is a general flight away from so-called "riskier" assets like developmental biotechs. However, NVIV has strong fundamental trends working in its favor. This means that while it may be overlooked temporarily by superficial technical traders, it will probably prove golden for those investors accumulating. I remain firm with my $29 fair price target assessment based upon the very real potential and progress track on this company's path toward regulatory approval of its unmet needs HUD/HDE product. Future revenue projections look every bit as good as previously stated. There may even be some pleasant surprises coming as gravy. Reiterated as a STRONG BUY especially at the current low price range of the past 30+ days.
BULLISH: My previous target call is intact. A few weeks back I said I was bullish on NVIV and posted a price target of $29. About 10 days later Mr. Napodano followed with an upgrade from $24 to $26. This was before the market selloff and just before the shenanicans of manipulation began with NVIV. This stock had the makings of a move upward in light of solid performance on goal for the Neuro-Spinal Scaffold clinical trial. Of note, recent outstanding news that the third enrolled patient converted AIS A to AIS B in 30 days with a high level injury, 3 days after trauma and has been revealed to be an anonymous older patient. That is outstanding and has been completely missed by the market. The odds were against this patient from many fronts. It is quite significant that the NSS implant appears to have profoundly benefited him. Further, when considering the combined statistical odds of patient #1 and patient #3 converting from AIS A in a short duration it brings the likelihood to less than 1%. Even the second patient has shown obvious signs of improvement and for reasons of medical technicality has not achieved an official AIS conversion. However, as the study is primarily a safety trial and secondarily a probable benefit study, the InVivo scaffold has passed with flying colors and has delivered a 3 for 3 success. A 4th patient was just enrolled and we look forward to that patient's progress. For all patients thus far, there seems to be a clear probable benefit in the absence of any adverse effects. The device shows enormous promise for acute SCI victims.
The company has about $24M in its coffers, one of the highest cash balances in its history. Nonetheless for added comfort and security, the CEO has also proactively arranged a funding facility that it can use when it elects to do so in the future. CEO Mark Perrin has demonstrated himself to be a highly responsible professional who leans conservative, so it should be of no surprise that he made early arrangements for a facility that will probably not be tapped for many months and hopefully after significant new news and catalysts are achieved. Kudos to such forethought. It goes without saying that there are forces at work (such as shorting) which have succeeded in greasing the skids so that NVIV would drop in share value at a large extent in this summer's macro environment. My hunch is that there is healthy institutional interest and due to the timing of the stock's uplisting, there were many retail investors in with a sufficiently small float that pushed the share price higher anytime a significant number of shares were purchased. Market insiders of course have a solution for when this occurs. To avoid a shortage of shares, the market makers shorted many shares, both accountable and naked, which not only "artificially" lowered the price, but allowed acquisition to occur without significant price appreciation. The market downtrend then exacerbated this slide and the stock is in a very over-sold state making it even more of an excellent buy at this time. Mr. Napodano recently characterized the stock as worth double from approximately $13. Because of the additional drop since that time, the stock is now worth nearly triple its current share price of $9.83 as of Friday 8/20/15. Mr. Napodano details a very sensible analysis for what the shares should be worth and applies standard discounts to factor in time to market and probability of approval via FDA. He uses historical averages for all medical devices including mechanical and electronic devices. I believe the probability is significantly greater that it will obtain approval. We have already observed the probable benefit with absence of adverse events. This is huge. It is irresponsible to impede such a device from benefitting injured patients. CEO Perrin has a reputation of being quite conservative and is almost the diametric opposite of a previous CEO Reynolds. Mr. Reynolds would typically promise the sky and either not deliver or deliver at a much later timescale than he promised. Investors grew tired of his empty promises and the ensuing disappointments. Mr. Perrin will typically under-promise and over-deliver. That makes for the possibility of pleasant surprises when nobody is expecting. This bodes quite well for NVIV as we move forward. Suppose he negotiates an outstanding agreement with FDA whereby the next phase of the trial can be halted early upon consistently good findings such as what has already been seen? And while not intended to follow an alternate path, theoretically the clinical might wind up being converted to en EAP pathway which allows even earlier commercialization with post market study. Another surprise that the company could spring upon its investors is an agreement to bring the Neuro-Scaffold to clinical study with stem cells or what the company is calling bio-engineered tissues. These are neurons which have already sprouted axons. When applying some of these variables to the already established analyses, one can see how quickly the hypothetical figures can change and make the value of NVIV grow considerably. Can the company compress timelines from what is currently being guided? Can the company simultaneously pursue ROW avenues for increased revenues. My best guess is that they will be trying all of these things, but instead of shouting it from the "Center of the Bigtop" as with prior management, it will be accomplished silently, only to pop up unexpectedly and catch everyone whether long or short off guard. This is not a stock to sell short. This is a unique biotech in that it is not a pharmaceutical nor is a conventional device. It has the best of both in terms of regulatory pathway ease and none of the most arduous features. I predict that InVivo will commercialize and achieve revenues earlier than many pundits are modeling. The subsequent product in its pipeline to address a wider field of both acute and chronic SCI will likely be fast-tracked as well and the company can achieve multiple billion dollar revenues in a reasonable timeframe. One other factor to consider is that since uplisting, institutional ownership has increased significantly. Along with that fact, the stock has had strong retail appeal throughout its entire history. When you combine these factors with the low float of the stock, it is a recipe for an enormous upside potential in valuation. One must put aside the current downtrend and realize there are market forces at work transiently that can turn on a dime. You can acquire shares at today's low price or chase the price later as it climbs. Again, due to the relatively low float, my recommendation is Carpe Diem on this strong buy.
Decent article. My price target is $29. How may investors think only 33% chance of approval through HUD? Even a still conservative 40% odds will yield $29. I actually think the odds are considerably higher than even 40%, but my model drops the peak sales revenue slightly.
Alert: Watch for NVIV on the move upward. I expect it to retrace recent highs of $17.78 and move higher.
The stock is clearly oversold. The company has at least 18 months of cash, and now has access to an additional two years at excellent terms, when needed.
There's a real probability they will have enough cash to bring the first product to market and attain commercial revenues. And achieving that milestone will continue to fuel progress on the NSS+ Bio-engineered Neural Tissue, which offers hope to chronic SCI patients.
Reminder: The stock is currently trading at only 60% of the price targets that have been in effect for at least 90 days, which were set before the second patient showed any of her clear improvements and also before the third patient advanced from AIS A to AIS B. These price targets are now actually low if you factor in the most recent July news catalysts, all positive.
The market cap is low, the float is low, and institutional ownership is increasing.
Recommendation: STRONG BUY
Price Target: $29
NASDAQ should be very happy with a $350M to $550M market cap. This is a first mover into an unmet needs space with successful clincals on a fast track to approval. Should be pulling in $500M in four years and blowing the doors off of chronic PMA trial clinicals by then with a $3.5 Billion market after that.
Her nerves are firing in her thigh.
Just saw on YMB: New Video from Jesi
that shows voluntary hip muscle action from her PT.
WOW!
It is technically an "unofficial" update from Jesi on one of her GFM pages
Patient #2 update is out. Another gain in recovery.
Winter last day // Last chance to buy under $3.00
NVIV will exceed the recent highs
upon news of re-opening the clinical recruitment for patients 3,4,5. indicating that the Safety of the NSS is evident in patient #2.
Expect to see some analyst updates and their BUY price targets to be raised especially if any clinical improvements at all (even minor) are medically noted in patient #2 and the accompanying share price rise. These may be the last days to get shares below $3.50
Speaking of one liners....LMAO!
I just read this from mixjack on the YMB:
"Hey Chartists, I just found a chart that says the horn of Capricorn is about to ascend into Uranus!"
Posts here are mostly one-liners
I guess that's good. Get ready. NVIV is very close to another move up since news is pending within a week or so, but can hit anytime between now and then.
This board seems to be more immune to the arsewholes who keep hitting up the Yahoo board.
Ready for a strong close above $3.00 ?
Total guess but $3.04 is not unreasonable due to a last minute surge of buyers trying to beat the new week.
Tangible and measurable improvement
like bowel & bladder would be HUGE. I'm already fairly confident the safety aspects were achieved.
Patient 2 NEWS
If you buy after Patient 2 news comes
You will pay more.
Positive Synergy, folks
The technical indicators here are superb!
Expecting official medical news any day on patient #2 who is looking pretty good so far...
Patient #1 just reported progress this afternoon via social media
All this going into Friday and news that could come next week.
If you are not in, it may be the last of the opportunities before $3 is reached.
Technical$ are L@@king G@@d
So, that, along with this positive patient buzz and imminent news is going to drive this very nicely. Looking forward to buying more on Tuesday's open before it goes higher!
Very poignant comparison. NVIV could explode in 2015. Those who understand what potential is here in this little sleeper will see their investment multiply quite nicely.
Let's keep it real, Napodano
Nobody's stem cells graft particularly well enough for optimal benefit. Any stem cell therapy would be enhanced by combining with the NSS. But hey, these cells are now an off the shelf product, so InVivo doesn't NEED anybody either. And, besides, InVivo is experimenting with rudimentary tissues & cells. Game changer!
Temporary Stall: Low visibility and lack of a news release. This stock remains under most radars and unfortunately the cure to this lack of publicity can be worse than the problem. We saw that with the Reynolds circus acts.
Answer to 3584
Forrest Gump?
And Nappy is Happy
Because he says if she is the 2nd patient, she is in good spirits and doing well under the circumstances.
Lots of MARKET BUYS. MM's foot off the brake please!
Stop holding this down.
Breakout appears imminent.
And there is plenty of base support, so the dips are quickly snatched up. This baby is driving higher.
Nice Chart going into likely Good News!
Breakout coming!
Wonder if JNAP is looking into this Jesi lead?
Great buy on a stock that will be over $3 soon enough.
Clear skies ahead. Plenty of cash, clinicals going well and shortened path to commercialization. Thanks to great management. Just bought more today at market price.
FactMan, you are absolutely right. This stock should by all rights be nearing its all time high the way things have progressed.
I do believe that investors simply do not understand the significance of the biomedical breakthrough happening here.
This can eventually be a Billion dollar company in several years.
Be thankful news travels slowly and get in before it goes up again. This kind of opportunity comes once or twice in a lifetime.
I agree, Avitt
Jason is doing well; The investment community seems brain dead!
That line was to get attention, but is not far from actuality.
It is simply amazing that this stock is still so much off the radar of many biotech investors.
Those astute enough will continue to accumulate with these "Blue Light Special" prices before this goes to $2.50, $3.00, $3.75 and beyond. InVivo Therapeutics is now making all the right moves and the science (and safety) is proving itself to be as splendid as it has been asserting all along. The only thing lacking is the unecessary extra hype that the former CEO used to undertake.
This one has a promising future and could rocket to the next level soon.
PATIENT IDENTIFIED AND DOING WELL !
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/barrow-neurosurgeons-implant-the-worlds-first-scaffold-into-a-patients-spinal-cord-282307741.html
Patient is already doing physical & occupational therapy.
This is ready to fly...
What positive surprises might the next week bring?
Being so under valued, one would see this at least return to the secondary range before picking up from there. Next stop $1.15 - $1.20 range.
News diffuses slowly when a stock is not under many radars. Written articles always help. Previous CEO was a hype meister whereas current management is more professional. However, it would be nice to see some media spots again.
This is extremely under-valued!
Clearly NVIV is under-valued.
PPS should be at an absolute minimum the level of the secondary offering of $1.15. Much has been accomplished since those uncertain days when the retail support at $2.24 dropped to $1.15 in an under-priced secondary where cash was urgently needed to start the clinical trial.
Fast forward and here we are with a patient showing a good response and now the FDA has opened up some of the criteria.
$1.15 should constitute an absolute MINIMUM pps for NVIV and there is and ought to be a massive floor of support at $1.15.
Reynolds may be selling and so what. We should be glad to buy the shares that he got for free. Anything is a gain for him, but these prices are a screaming buy for us.