Lets make some Money and share with one another :) 1 Love 1 Goal $$$$
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If that happens I will retire from work. I got loads of RIMM shares when it was 7.99.
It's not going to happen
Where and when did you hear Microsoft and blackberry are going to partner up?
All Canadian banking and financial services moving cellular phones back black berry 10
What just happened here All of a sudden
Hi everyone
Any one wanna share their opinion on this article?
http://bgr.com/2013/02/25/blackberry-10-sales-mkm-343235/
Thanks for the video post. I have gut feeling that BBRY will do well. IPhone has nothing new in their plate.
Your right I got the phone also from work and I love it. I allows you to have 2 profile one for personal and next for work. This phone is amazing.
BlackBerry Shows No Signs Of A Turnaround
03:45 PM ET | by Jonathan Verenger
about: BBRY | includes: SNE, FSLR, NOK, AAPL
BlackBerry (BBRY) continues to bleed red ink in its operating performances with no clear sign of a turnaround. In fact, trends in revenues and operating income suggest that things might actually be worsening. Take a look at the past 5 quarters revenue figures:
Q4 2011: $5.2 billion
Q1 2012: $4.2 billion
Q2 2012: $2.8 billion
Q3 2012: $2.9 billion
Q4 2012: $2.7 billion
Over the past 2 years operating income has fallen from $4.6 billion to ($1.4) billion over the trailing twelve months. The question is: is this priced in the stock which is down about 90% from all time highs and about 85% from highs in 2009?
I would argue that until there are tangible signs of a turnaround in operating income or revenues, anyone buying the stock at these levels (which is up over 100% from the recent lows) could be at risk of significant draw downs out of nowhere.
In looking at recent corporate developments, the recent launch of the Z10 and its new operating system could be a catalyst for a turnaround. However, I'll take a look at the details of this new launch below to see if there may be reasons for optimism.
BlackBerry Z10:
BlackBerry recently launched its new operating system on its Z10 smartphone, which has been a long time coming. In many ways it reminds me of the BlackBerry tablets (what were they called again?), launched to much media hype but zero consumer fan fare. CEO Thorsten Heins recently admitted to the tablet business as being a very tough business to operate in. The issue is not the specs of the Playbook. It is on par with competing products from Apple (AAPL) and Samsung in terms of specs and price points. However, in the highly competitive consumer electronics market, first mover advantage is huge. And BlackBerry continually launches products well after its competitors. It seems like it is almost in their corporate culture to avoid sticking its neck out and innovating, rather waiting for the market to develop and reacting to it. Perhaps this is the best path for it to take, but I think it reeks of a lack of product innovation.
Anyway, getting back to the Z10, UBM Techinsights in Canada did an estimate of the cost to build the Z10 by tearing it apart and adding up the costs of its components. UBM estimates that the cost of the Z10 is $154 per unit, which is about 10% higher than the iPhone 5 at $139.20. Why is this important? Consider that Apple has been able to consistently charge premium prices for its products while it's competitors including Samsung (SSNLF) have been competing more on price, making it vital to operate at lowest cost. If BBRY is forced to compete on price then it's at a huge disadvantage if it is not the lowest cost producer.
In comparing the specs of the Z10 with the Galaxy S3 from Samsung, the leader in smartphone market share, lets look at each of its major components:
(1) Screen Size
Z10 screen size is 4.2 inches vs S3 at 4.8 inches. Given users tend to prefer larger screen sizes I would give the edge to the S3.
(2) Screen Resolution
Z10 and S3 have similar resolutions; however Z10 does have an impressive 355ppi vs 306ppi for the S3 so the edge goes to the Z10.
(3) Storage
The Z10 was launched with only one storage model: 16GB. The S3 offer 3 different storage options: 16GB, 32GB, and 64GB. Both do offer the option of adding storage with card slots, but I'm not really sure why BlackBerry wouldn't offer more than one option. The edge goes to the S3.
(4) Processor / Performance
The S3 features a 1.4 GHz quad-core chip based on the ARM Cortex-A9 architecture. The Z10 has a 1.5 GHz dual-core processor, which is a less powerful processor. The Z10 does however have double the RAM as the S3, which puts it on par with the S3. The edge goes to neither.
(5) Camera
The S3 and the Z10 both have 8MP cameras and both record in HD 1080p. Again, the edge goes to neither.
Just based on the comparison with the Galaxy S3, I really so no compelling reason for anyone to switch. There is no single feature that jumps out as a must have that the S3 doesn't have. In fact, the S3 has a better battery life and software. Just yesterday James Faucette of Pac Crest said that sales of the Z10 are trending far below market estimates. He now pegs sales of the Z10 at 275k to 325k units in February, significantly below consensus estimates of 1 million. If that comes to fruition, it might be lights out for the stock.
And to top it off, my Goldman Sachs (GS) indicator is in full red alert: GS upgraded BBRY three months ago and while shares surged afterward, they are only marginally above the $12 area they peaked at after the upgrade. If you don't know my GS indicator, it is this: GS consistently upgrades stocks or downgrades stocks at inflection points. Case in point, they recommended investors sell Nokia (NOK) around $2 per share (while they were buying shares of the company according to their SEC filings), they recommended a sell on First Solar (FSLR) at $12 per share, and they recommended people to stay away from Natural Gas (UNG) when it was around $1.90 to $2.00 mmBTU. I can go through an entire list of examples that back this up but needless to say, they oftentimes are recommending investors do the exact opposite that they are doing privately.
Anyway, with no clear catalyst in sight other than a surging stock price, I would recommend investors to be extremely cautious going long BBRY. A name change alone won't make this a better company. Instead, consider Sony (SNE) or Nokia if you want exposure to the consumer smartphone market. Both have significantly more diversified businesses and much more upside potential. In fact, I have recommended both recently. See:
(1) Buy this Dip on Nokia
(2) Buy Sony Hand over Fist
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in NOK over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Warehouse's online inventory tool or actually calling stores, I'm not quite sure how they get these channel checks done, but one thing I can assure you is that the process needs to be done in person and preferably not by a guy in a suit with a US accent. Whenever I have called stores I have often gotten lukewarm response as these kids are busy and they don't want to be answering surveys for people who are not going to be buying phones.
Carphone Warehouse:
No longer sells the Z10 without contract online.
Sim-free sales are only in stores and this depends on each store's inventory.
Raised the price of BOTH Z10s from 479 to 529 GBP (iPhone 5 (AAPL) for 499).
Phones4u
No longer sells the Z10 without contract online.
Sim-free sales are only in stores and this depends on each store's inventory.
Raised the price of the black Z10 from 479 to 540 GBP.
When was the last time the price of a phone was raised post-launch, and even more so, that phone was a BlackBerry? Other than being stranded on a deserted island with nothing but a BlackBerry I cannot see that scenario ever playing out! But it just did. Of course, US bear-side analyst channel checks would not have told you that because said analysts probably never walked into a UK retailer! It also might have raised a serious question mark under the bearish research note.
Another very important point that is made constantly by the retailers is that people are buying these phones sim-free.
Recent Bulletin Tacitly Acknowledges Existence of Black market
Within the last couple of days a special bulletin was sent out by one of the two largest UK retailers to all stores allowing the sale of multiple device units to walk-ins. (There used to be limits here and people circumvented them by sending in wives etc.)
This is important because it is a tacit acknowledgement of a continuing black market for BlackBerry Z10 phones?21 days after launch?
Again do not expect a bearish analyst to reveal a fact like this to you.
Meeting Notes and Methodology?Important Points to Consider:
In each store I sought out a manager or mobile 'aficionado' and I avoided part-time employees et cetera. I sought to have a meaningful conversation rather than a superfluous inventory check, which can be so misleading either way.
Mobile operator stores sell far fewer handsets than the two large UK retailers; a large mobile operator's store can sell maybe 5 -20 contract handsets in a day. It appears to me that these stores service clients who get the upgrades by telephone call or online sales. When US analysts said stores had very few stocks at launch so as to leave the impression of a fake sell-out, they may have been referring to these stores or smaller retailer locations.
Below are top-level highlights and the excerpts of these channel checks:
Raw Notes:
Smaller Location Retailer chat:
They had a small quantity on launch day and they sold all those straight away, waited a few more days got another 10 or 20 in and sold all of those. At the moment though they probably have about five of each. They are probably selling a few a day. It's not as much as they do with the other phones and they probably sell more iPhone 5s, and Galaxy S3s (SSNLF.PK). He agreed to a 3 to 1 iPhone to Z10 selling rate, which I suggested, so this can only be taken with a grain of salt as I suggested the number.
Agreed with statement along the lines of: "I think it's been a better success yes than anybody expected."
The store affirms a lot of people are buying them off contract.
Black Z10 prices have been moved UP: from 479 to 529.
Highlights from a mobile Operator store: People are 'lovin it up'
More people coming in than they expected, but more people want to buy it outright. When they find out the price, they come back and buy it on contract.
They are actually selling more than expected.
They are working towards a goal of three handsets [contracts only] per day.
This compares to 5-6 for iPhones and the S3 each. Basically out of 13-15 high-end smartphones, Z10 should be three of those.
They thought they would have to do a lot of work to sell them but they didn't, walk-ins simply know what they want. They just want to be directed onto the right tariff.
He also noted 4G is very helpful in selling the Z10, as well as BBM video for the younger generation and the screen sharing.
Larger UK retailer, area Manager supervising numerous stores:
They had raised the price of the black Z10 to 550 GBP
They too are experiencing heavy sim-free sales, and fewer contract sales. The top line from here was they were selling a ton of handsets and it was doing very well.
They had also just been given the green light to sell multiple units by their head office. (a very recent note within the last day or so.)
In his store, the BlackBerry was selling better than the Lumia (NOK).
It has not affected iPhone 5 sales negatively.
His key finding is the BlackBerry Z10 is "taking by storm," the S3 is still selling well, and the Note 2, and the iPhone as well.
Also very important to note here they have not had customer complaints or returns due to software glitches etc.
I asked if they had stock at launch? To which he answered along the lines that they had massive stock.
I told him people are saying BlackBerry gave like five handsets to each store to create fake sell-outs.
He told me they had huge amounts and they blew them out. Generally he commented that it was a very organized launch as far as inventory went.
I would like to add that Edgeware road stores are offering to sell these for 800 GBP!
To Conclude:
The recent slew of UK channel checks were designed to do one thing: 'scare you', and with the courtesy of articles titled like, "BlackBerry 10 May Have Been An Enormous, Record-Breaking Flop," it is understandable investors were scared.
My limited UK channel checks have confirmed very important trends:
1.) Prices are being increased post-launch.
2.) The black market exists and is thriving 21 days after launch.
3.) The larger UK stores as expected had 'massive' quantities of launch.
4.) Those stores blew the phones out the door.
I would also like to add a cautionary note that BlackBerry has recently announced launches in France, Malaysia, Singapore, Italy, Germany, and India. All of these have either just launched or will launch in the next couple of days. Basically well before the quarter ends?
Recent analyst comments regarding shipment figures have been overly bearish, but with $2 Billion-plus short BBRY, those analysts clearly have an agenda to help pull their clients out of this mess. Forbes is their preferred voice, but expect more stories as this group is very adept at manipulating headlines to generate fear. If you believe the above thesis, then this market manipulation represents an opportunity to buy. Your mantra in this trade should be "there is nothing to fear but fear itself."
Disclosure: I am long BBRY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
BlackBerry: Raising Goldman's $19 To $20.82
Feb 21, 2013 | by Tufenk | about: BBRY
What is the true base value in BlackBerry (BBRY) today? Numerous articles on BBRY and its new BB10 platform may be misleading traders into thinking there is a do or die situation happening each and every day. That day has come and gone for now. Goldman Sachs has a buy rating on BBRY with a target of $19. Peter Misek at Jefferies reiterated his Buy rating with a target of $19.50 yesterday. S&P, according to our old friend Eric Savitz, has a sell rating on BBRY with a $12 target.
Look, BBRY WAS a great short candidate long ago and when it went to single digits, the shorts should have covered. Rumor mongering about the slow rollout and predicting what total sales will be at this early stage is guesswork. But we know there is a good buzz about the Z10. The remaining stubborn bears are waiting for a BBRY apocalypse when they really should be planning their escape. We will explain why.
There is more to BlackBerry than the new Z10 and coming Q10 smartphones when valuing the company. In fact, there is much more value than investors are currently seeing. First, the BBRY ecosystem everyone has been talking about is the app developers. It's important, alive and well. But there is a more important ecosystem that is embedded in BBRY that should be mined as it exists. It's the customer base of 79 million users. They use the device each day. Facebook (FB) has a user base of 1.05 billion {10Q} and its fully diluted {2.62 billion shares} market cap of $74.85 billion or $71.28 per user. Taking the value per customer approach for BBRY would yield $5.631 billion just for the customer base. This user base is something BBRY management must see as a secret weapon.
Using this as a fundamental value, we the start to add information from the 12/1/12 balance sheet. If we add just the net cash from current assets of $2.7 billion to the $5.631 billion above, we get a $8.31 billion sub-total value which would translate to a $15.95 per share using a base of 524 million BBRY shares outstanding. We then have the patents valued by the company at $3.1 billion in intangible assets category. Then there is the property, plant and equipment {PPE} at $2.493 billion and long term investments of $207 million. Total other current assets other than cash and cash equivalents equal $4.095 billion and all total liabilities equal $3.297 billion.
Netting these two from each other leaves us with $798 million excess assets over liabilities. Adding the $3.291 billion dollars to the $2.493 billion and $207 above gives us a total $6.391 of additional potential value at BBRY found on its balance sheet. If we conservatively took a 60% discount to this combined total value of patents, PPE and other net assets of $6.391 billion, we get $2.5564 billion discounted net potential value which translates to an additional $4.87 per share in value to the share price for the final sum of $20.82. We think this is a floor value for BBRY shares.
Future Upside
The new feature BBRY released at the January launch is bigger than we originally thought. This feature is put on top of another undervalued asset that BBRY investors are not seeing. The BBM network. We have written before of this asset in relation to why it would be valuable to Facebook:
"2. Blackberry Messenger
It's clear there is an assault by private networks like FB to redirect traffic away from cellular phone networks via the internet. This has clear revenue implications for cell phone operators and yields more "stickiness" (hours of users engagement) for FB and loyalty from its user base by lowering their user's cell phone messaging charges. A quantum leap in this pursuit would be buying RIMM mainly for its Blackberry Messenger network {BBM} private messaging network which recently announced free voice service. BBM is regarded as a secure alternative to SMS messaging. However, it is currently closed to users other than BlackBerry's. Facebook could open this to all its users and expand its use exponentially and provide more security for its user base. This security comes from the Blackberry PIN system BBM is built upon. BBM together with RIMM's undeniably reliable email service has been estimated to be worth $1.6 billion alone."
As you can see, the value of BBM can't be included in the per user value we derived for Facebook above because they don't have a BBM. Moreover, the $1.6 billion value for BBM above was before they added the video chat feature. To be conservative, we will not add the $1.6 billion to base value calculation.
BBM messaging does not have a price per text which some carriers impose on their users. This network is equivalent to a secure SMS text messaging system. One that BlackBerry users can use to communicate with each other in a closed system. What was revealed at the launch was they have added a video component to it which makes it powerful for video conferencing in a much more secure manner. Dating, gaming, on-line gambling, live streaming and many other forms of entertainment can be a compelling use for secure video chat. In fact, etc., on-line gambling is the new buzzword in Silicon Valley and security will surely play a major role in its implementation. And BBRY could offer higher levels of security because they are managing the transmissions and they could charge for this additional security. iPhone users use FaceTime. But the system is buggy and not secure and hard to navigate. Skype has a mono-audio codec. Both are good for birthdays, parties, etc.
But they are not recommended for events that need more security and reliability. The BBM video provides a smooth experience and is transmitted through the BBRY BBM network which manages the video and audio transmissions. The mini HDMI jack on the side of the Z10 can be connected to a large TV monitor in a conference room for a full blown meeting video conference and can also access documents and screen share for live collaboration. BBM video is a free alternative to GoToMeeting which has a monthly subscription fee. Enterprise video conferencing is a fast growing market segment. The prices charged per month per employee are just like software licenses priced per "seat" for other
popular enterprise offerings such as Salesforce or SAP at the high end. BBM video is free over Wi-Fi and will be subject to data plan charges depending on individual carrier offering plans. Rogers Wireless, a Canadian carrier selling the Z10, is promoting BBM video free for 1 year over the cell phone network.
The value this brings to the enterprise customer can be significant in terms of video conferencing cost savings. Moreover, it gives a big reason for the enterprise customer to stay. But this does not even touch the value this may add to the consumer "social networking" aspect of the BBM video capability. Live video streaming from events could become the next offering and make this feature natural for viral content. This is what Alicia Keys alluded to in her interview at the BB10 launch in January.
The BB10 built on top of the QNX Operating System differentiates BBRY from other cell phone manufacturers because it is already used by other Machine 2 Machine {M2M} platforms. The QNX OS itself has not been valued separately in our analysis and would only increase the $20.82 base value we have placed on BBRY.
Rumors swirled that BBRY would miss its launch date of January 30, 2013. That did not happen. The new BB10 product would be a loser. Positive reviews so far suggest that is not true. The lack of apps would kill BBRY. Thanks to porting of Android apps and their developer's enthusiasm for new revenue streams, I have downloaded and used them with a Dev Alpha B BB10 device. That's not a valid argument anymore. All enterprise business will be lost. That doesn't seem to be happening any time soon, although there have been some "wins" reported by competitors at companies like of Land O'Lakes {they are not exactly protecting national security items at a butter company.} However, we think BBRY addressed a major issue in the bring your own device {BYOD} market where the enterprise market seems to be headed for good. BBRY is now supporting its competitors' products with its device management capability inside the BES enterprise server.
In summary, there are three major assets that have not been "marked to market" that BBRY owns which would add further cushion to our base value analysis: the QNX OS, BBM messaging and the new BB10 devices themselves. A modest rollout of BB10 devices with BBRY's current 4.5% market share in smartphone sales together with licensing the OS and cross fertilization of these platforms in creative "social networking" activities could add tremendous value on top of our base value of $20.82.
Disclosure: I am long BBRY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Let's see as I say by pm it's going to be sitting at 14.40
You are so right green
It's going to make a uturn this afternoon I am hoping
Hey everybody, but so what do you guys think? I is it a good buy?
Hi thanks for replying. I I got it for 16.75. Confused I don't know how to play stock.
I am just trying to make money here to support my kids school. I have a job but don't make enough :(
Hey how are you! I am new to this I bough RIMM at 16.74 do you think I should sell?