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How markets work:
Hershele from Ostropol had a neighbor.
One day Hershele (pronounced Her-She-Le) walks over to his neighbor and says "Hi Moishe, I have guests tonight and I am missing a silver spoon, could I borrow one?"
"Sure" Says moishe and gives him the spoon.
The next day Hershele returns the spoon together with a teaspoon and says "Mazel Tov!! You are not going to believe this crazy story! Last night I hear noises, so I go down to the kitchen and it seems the spoon was pregnant and the noises I heard was labor so I am giving you the spoon and her daughter."
The neighbor thinks Hershele is a bit crazy, but decides to accept the gift saying "Mazel tov to you too, I am so happy for the mother and child."
After a few days Hershel come to Moishe again and asks for a chair, a kettle and a loaf of bread.
And the chair gives birth to a stool, the kettle a tea pot and the loaf of bread a cookie.
One day Hershel comes over to Moishe and asks for his gold watch. "I am going to my sister's wedding and I want to look good." Moishe gladly gives him the gold watch and waits.
After two weeks, Moishe angrily knocks on Hershel's door. "WHERE IS MY WATCH????"
Heshel says, " I am *SO* sorry, I don't knoww how to say this... The night of the wedding I hear noises from the closet, I open the door and find your watch with chest pain. I rushed him over to the hospital, but before we got there it seems he had a heart attack and died. Since it the custom of the place we had a funeral the same day, and we buried the watch."
Moishe gets all red in the face "ARE YOU CRAZY? HOW CAN A WATCH DIE? HOW DO YOU EXPECT ME TO BELIEVE THIS?"
Helshel says, "The same way you believed the spoon, chair, the kettle and the bread gave birth."
TF,
Here is my ass**** opionion-the problem with tehnical analysis is that it can be backtested so many ways to get the results you want or don't want-for example, using certain parameters backtested for 1 month will yield totally different results when the same parameters are backtested for 1 year, or for a different time frame. Also, the market changes so often that certain technical analysis indicators will deliver desired results sometimes, but not at other times-so the question is when to use which indicators and for how long? It's a question without a satisfactory answer. That's why something that seems to work all of a sudden doesn't work. The adherents of Tehnical Analysis will utilize charts to prove their point, but there are so many different chart patterns through the years that just by random coincidence almost any theory-whether it be head and shoulders patterns or other "reliable" ones are available to prove their point. My viewpoint comes from some of my own experimentation with techincal analysis and others I've known who have lost lots trying to trade off indictors. Finally, Victor Niederhoffer's book "Practical Speculation" and his website convinced me of the worthlessness of technical analysis (Not that Vic has the "answer"). I witnessed a friend lose several hundred thousand dollars (no, it wasn't me), especially after buying Edwards and Magee's book, or any of a dozen like it, thinking he found the anwswer to how stock prices act. One more point-my comments are not directed at X-DEV, a program I enjoy playing with, but rather at the whole field of "Technical Analysis". We are all human and want something easy with easy answers to very complex problems.
Wf-My opinon-the market will at some point stop "correcting" so it will go up and everyone will breath a sigh of relief- but then it will "correct" again making everyone nervous. Hopefully, X-DEV will roll with the ups and downs without too much damage-but then again ?
I'm sure there are plenty of opinions from the guru commentators and their websites who will gladly inform you where the market is heading, or check in with Lou R. tonight (I think he's on CNBC) and the gurus there for their opinons, but opinions are like assholes-everyone's got one and they all stink. I'll check my amazing trendline maker with it's super duper enhancements of fancy indicators and get back to you with my opinion. I apologize for being cynical, but I've been in this game a long time and if you are asking others for their opinion to help you with your trading then you probably should not be trading.
TF-Be very careful with Technical Analysis-Contrary to those willing to sell you their "no fail" systems "guaranteed" to make you big bucks, most people I have known using TE have LOST BIG. There are no studies supporting the value of TE-only opinions as to its value and "so called experts" who, for a price, will be very happy to inform you as to where the market is going because they know how to interpret whatever indicators they use. Often the trend followers get it wrong. X-DEV seems to work best when there is a definite trend and the current market's trend is anything but definite. In any event, don't get excited thinking that "good fundamental" stocks applied to a techical system will be the answer.
Myst, Nothing comes up after ativating the binoculars-do I have to imput symbols into the portfolio or should it aurtomatically display all stocks optimized? thanks.
Myst, thanks for your replies. Any idea when the "alert" feature will be available?
Myst, thanks-What time frame do you find provides the most accurate reading? If I am investing long term or a swing trader it still helps to have an accurate reading on risk to initiate the trade. (At this point you may be sorry you provided the MRI, what with all the questions)Mochi
Myst, yes-I amusing Yahoo-should I switch to another quote service?
Myst, After optimizing it still appears that MRI will depend on the length of time-for example the QQQ-from September, 1, 2003 to April 14, 2004 MRI is +2, whereas from January 1, 2004 to April 14, 2004 MRI is -4. Which is the more accurate MRI? thanks.
The main lab page-but it is now ok-I have a question on MRI-it appears the MRI will change depending on the dates I use-what is the correct lenght of time to use to get the best MRI? thanks.
my x-dev prices have updated only through Tuesday-the 13th-anyone else noticing the same thing?
Myst, Alert feature-how is it activated? Do I imput stock symbols in the portfolio or does X-dev automatically pull them out? Can you give a primer on how to use this feature when you and Yong are done working on it? thanks.
Myst,
Finally got the MRI working-how do I get the Alert feature to work? thanks.
Myst, Tried to download MRI to X-dev file but didn't take-also can't retreive program files-the only version of x-dev I have os 3.05-I placed the update in the X-Dev file-is that why I can't find the original x-dev file? I tried to download the update again but was denied permission. What to do? thanks.
Myst, Retrieved all my default set ups. My Windows program files X-DEV folder contains a folder for MRI and portfolio-but nothing is in either-when I downloaded the update I'm sure I put it in the X-DEV folder. Am I still missing something-how should I look for the update if it is located in another program?
Myst, After trying to install update all my set ups disappeared, and I cannot install MRI, nor is there anything in the portfolio folder. I have windows XP, and am not adept at using a computer-so I don't know if I did something to corrupt the program. But when I checked my program files everything looked the same as how it should look after installing the program based upon your message. What should I do? Thanks.
SAtorino is SO RIGHT when he writes-the time to buy and sell is when you hate to do it-this is because we are all human and will follow others when it comes to something scary like investing our hard earned money-thus, when we feel it's ok to enter a buy because it looks like the stock has gone up enough to confirm our belief it is a good buy is exactly the time when those who bought earlier are going to unload their shares which will cause the stock to drop and you will hold on believing you couldn't be wrong after all that deliberation-so you hold on and hold on then when you think you've lost too much you will sell-know that human nature runs contrary to making money in the stock market!
Installed 3.5-Where is alert button? MRI shuts off program or freezes it.
Myst,
Great-it will make the program much easier and more user friendly! A question-are the bands the most important part in optimizing performance, and if so, what's the order of importance in tweaking the system? I noticed when i changed the $ amount invested the signals change-why is that?
Myst,
Currently I have to check each stock programmed into X-DEV to see if it is close to a buy or stop price to determine whether to put on a buy or sell stop to get into the stock. It would be helpful to have some way to find these stocks without checking each one every day. Hope this is clear.
Myst,
A scanner that shows all new entries and exits each day would be so helpful-would not have to go through each symbol every day. Any hope for that?