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This is a nothing....or it’s so much bigger than most could “imagine”
Like : at midnight the carriage becomes a pumpkin....
And if so....there isn’t just a head....
Think nasty, modern day horror that I couldn’t......
You’ve forgotten one thing....me!
Hope for results does not manifest itself....
And just for entertainment purpose....a $20m deal puts a s$it load more people in jail!
Aegis....lol
Real bank? What does that mean?
I think they do or DID dable in the black car service of NY....
For me nothing has changed....I hold my full position recaptured at low $7 avg....my point to you is I don’t think you know what you are talking about...
The only way to undermine current price...is what some have said...etc....and geert goes to jail.
My thesis is in play until it’s not!
My feelings are hurt; I thought you would have included me in such “LC!”
Nothing has changed for me regarding my strategy or what I’ve said.
Any such notion would be due to selective memory or failure to interpret.
And exasperated by assumptions rather than questions.
I’ve clearly stated I’m only long.
I’ve clearly stated I’m only comfortable being long because of the “orange jumpsuit” likelihood based on certain circumstances.
I’ve also stated that I’ve clearly explained this to the few as a basis for the investment....
I actually added to my position at 9+ in anticipation of idmc release. Passage of time deemed it non material and I sold my $9stake around 8.40; then I took a micro piece back at high 7; and then today I took back full position and extracted cash as if it were a gain.
I thought I posted all such positioning here (maybe some was here and some was twits), except for BUY posted today. I went out to lunch with my kids and saw what I perceived an undeniable tape read....hence I posted during market hours which I normally do not do - if ever it’s very rare...
Avg purchase was 6.40
Before tools; comes obligation.
(Sorry, but no new statistical theory was solved)
In a perfect today world:
Cvm And market gap up; I sell and buy more tvix....
Then i sell portion of tvix and come back larger in cvm....
Bad news is I’m holding tvix and didn’t sell anything yet...
But the good news is I had enough faith to bet the buy side of cvm at expense of less cash liquidity (which is paramount if I truly feel as strong as i do about my positions...
So...i saw more buying than everybody else....
And I expect more....and subsequently the price may fall....imo the price will only fall off becuase excessive buying occurs prior too dissemination....
But if does not...that’s ok I bought bid in AH....
Replace beleif with “hope”...
Hope is not an investing strategy.
You will wait 1-30 days (30 days max)....
One can believe if one does the work or unequivocally understand the work done.....otherwise it’s just hope.
Fasten your seatbelts!
Well put....
Me being me; i would story it like this:
“Saturday is Saturday” noting but the moment
“Sunday is Sunday”: Sunday night (visit your own memory - be current memtally)
Monday is Tuesday
Tuesday is Wednesday
Wednesday is Thursday
Thursday is Friday
Friday is Friday: observe the moment - and if any news comes out that is significantly material? trade opposite to direction
I convince myself I only work 4 days a week...
It’s been a great thing and I try and subtly pass it on....when one says “oh, it’s Monday while passing a common hello....I reply “it Tuesday....it’s inevitable I will finish this day....and so forth....but I be sure to relish in slowing time on Friday through Sunday....
Ps: understanding what is material is paramount.
Understanding is simply doing your work.
You’ve done you work sushi....now improve your weaknesses. By now you must have a clear grip on what merits position or thought change.
Can you guess what I’ve done with the capital that would be needed to purchase another 9500 shares?
I told you...
Great point. I’m waiting....
What’s raise price point?
What are the incentives (ie warrants, patents, data in event of failure; or just desperation)??
I’m waiting?
I would really like to have my eyes widened...tell me one scenario....
I’m waiting?
Ps . I don’t think you have any idea as too what extent I have gone in an attempt to predict result that returns me capital....irrelevant of the study outcome...
I spend ZERO time contemplating the highlights of success ph3....I’ll wish for a moment I’d held my 15k shares sub $1; instead of getting in and out all over the place....but if I hadn’t had said approach I would be like everybody else...
I hinted the following to mid-level LPL execs...
....only because one or 2 may have been listening...
Cvm small long....protection is no fundraising....data is big or it’s hidden...
Tvix large...the current daily dabble
Ngd very large... not acting as anticipated and loosing $, but holding and considering addition
Slng holding. Significant massive investor position....wish i saw the today (not yesterday as it was prior to delist news)...as I would have added :”if it’s institutional that’s up to them....but if it’s individual I could say take position, but if some “generic players” enter and drive it down?? Go and buy the f out of it!)
So....all in all....I look good on tvix.....and wrong every where else. Thankfully the only day trade was massive green.
——-
Oh, but there’s one more...I bought 5% portfolio stake in fcel after market at .39 (30% premium)....
Doing my best to fail....just doesn’t seem to happen?
But, I’ve contacted an advisor to I can’t go from the .01% to the 99.9%...winners - losers....nobody should be right....especially not as often as I am...
Maybe this will help you feel better and loosen your neck up a bit more...
20% my portfolio in ngd at avg 1.08.
Still a massive steak in slng
Significant 10% in tvix
I heard somewhere if you shake your head left first when doing a “smh” it means you listened....not agree or disagree....at least listened...
Imagine being a psych trader; and you ask anybody anything.....like
What’s your conviction?
This is what I think?
And what’s funny is my best asset is tape reading...
The basis of that opinion is what allows me to be long as well as advise a few close people to take a long shot at cvm.
Rather than I taking the time to lay out everything geert has done over the years (funding relationships...etc....share structure...)his recent statements, the proximity of data release, etc...
Why don’t you tell me how you envision geert can raise funds without jeopardizing his freedom?
I’d really appreciate a hypothetical scenario that I haven’t the visited. It just may change my opinion...
Ps- beleive it or not but the same type of theory could be applied to below:
the Democrats would look stupid if republicans pushed for impeachment first....
Those waiting for China / US negotiation resolution haven’t localized the pain...
Sometimes there are scenarios where one can unequivocally be forced to take an action....thus leading to the next... then we can all entertain going forward from said point.
Sometimes some can see that point before it arrives...
To clarify the analogy: the democrats have been forced....and it was always coming!
Geert too has been forced (I think he know it...maybe not though), but you obviously don’t see it.
Anyways I’m heavy tvix again at 13.40 (sorry it’s not real time - which I usually provide 24 hour safe window)
And I did ad to cvm position...today
In regards to changing order...
I tried to see if I could increase it via using arca with my shares...i tried to add a couple k at the same price and it didn’t adjust...I don’t have 10k shares so I wasn’t able to try that. If one had tried to add 10k at same price and the mm added it; you could be certain there is no preferential treatment to order.
As far as forced liquidation preference:
It could be many different things, but one concept stands out....for me at least
If an MM, program, or just plain good faith contract is being facilitated;
There can be preferential treatment...
“For example”:
An mm had been facilitating a trade of 90k share at $40 (simple rounded numbers to convey idea )
Said mm could sell 360k at $10.
All the mm needs to do is relieve itself of the remaking 270k shares above $10 for profit.
It’s simple, but complex; (the program does the...what are the borrow fees and availibility?)
Scenario: let’s say geert does exactly what I think will put him in an orange suit...he decides to raise capital prior to data read out. You’ll end up seeing a big black candle the includes the price point mentioned. Obviously I don’t think he’s going to Do such, hence I’m long.
On the other hand it could be part of a max payout for services rendered. (One could only imagine all the different types of services being rendered with cvm...
Both scenarios mandate a cross on the exchange; based on what one knows one may sell or buy more?
——
And then there is: fat finger....
Tell greens don’t fret...a sell at 40 and a buy at 8 would put at 50% caught up....
Take you pick:
Fat finger
Well thought strategy...(ranging from options to vacation...)
A log breakdown: forced liquidation preference in such and event? (FYI; if this is case????there is 100% cross to occur.)
.....oh....and then there is:
Could be gift 90k with incentive built (presumed forfulled...) in...
I tried to adjust the order and arca preference wouldn’t let me...
Ps. Wasted thoughts...it’s enough to write myself note to self :...
Or you could be at the butcher shop and you pull the number “0”...it’s still accounted for....
Yes, we are on the hook...I was attempting to articulate a vacuum of interpretation I had NOT integrated (as obvious as it should have been)...
Ps. Bailed of accumulated tvix today....took 3% gain while enduring major risk...too much selling and still no buyers in spx.
I was tempted to increase my cvm participation on down day (Monday); looked like Russell induced decline...
I didn’t though...just like I didn’t sell tvix that day for ~10%. However I did retain my small cvm on a day I relinquished tvix.
Took a stronger gold position and cash position.
Also called my old finance advisor and asked if we could do business again.....
I can no longer productively manage “all” my money...
I’m trying to add some throughly to some other points / posts that both you and others have said:
Obviously economics and capitalism are at play....
I think the data must be showing great indifference based on economic value across the world...
I think that point is fairly obvious if you researched the previous cro vs engromed..the idmc “futile verbiage” and then along with the final judgement...
I don’t believe in the power wielding boards of major pharma.
I don’t think geert has the “resources to or personal mental fortitude” to go the next leg.
I’m confident in my work; but as i said previously i miss some perspectives that demand more than just attention.
I do think data is priceless; how can that be constructively utilized?
I think it will be geographically biased....
I think geert has some incredible qualities...did some very unethical things...
I’m more than confident that at this stage the data can not be deemed priceless for purposes of raising capital...until the data arrives.
Then I envision a shooting gallery; the likes of pulp fiction....bam, bam bam bam....and then Samuel Jackson speaks....about “god” (remember the scene in the apartment??? The kid shoots at him and John travolta?
Watch the scene over and over....the set-up, the event, what is said / what happens....then what is said....then final outcome
Agree but disagree. Agree on idea....disagree on the financial benefactor.
Greens12 - post data - prior fda ......
I lean greens12 way
Your scenario has to be tabled...
I clearly agree with 1 comment you made as a potential scenario (buyout after data...prior to fda distinction).
And for perspective; for more likely than lightrock drug combination...cutting ones self short...
No....I don’t do options..no I don’t hav trade perfectly -just better than you.
Ps. If one dumb downs too much; it lends the idea 20 years experience is deemed worthless....equivalent of geert raising capital a this stage and deeming cvm worthless without the data...
I don’t really see drug combination as potential
Maybe for suitor, but not cvm
Umm yes...I think % gains/ losses are the only way...how else could you measure somebody in the investment world?
You know that I valet for a living (like everybody else here does right?)...
I do it because I only work 30 hours a week. 4 evening shifts and Friday day shift (all 6 hour shifts) that gets me slightly later than my kids get off school. I get the whole weekend off with them, as well as 4 mornings during the week...
I’m Get full benefits for $25 month.
“Time is the most valuable commodity, you can’t get it back”
By me
I didn’t say that... i said that I would extract more capital thank you work a 500 share stake than you will with you 10k shares of an trading event day arrives...
I don’t need a screenshot; I believe you....why wouldn’t I Or shouldn’t I?
Even if your blasphemous; somebody carries the weight of your position and the mentality....
The way I entertain “posts”: they are all true...and those that are not of the author...it is there loss....
See: I post my truth....I know such...
You post truth too....but you know as such...
But any lie, deception...you know as much..
The main difference is even trough it is you who has tried to deceive (becuase you don’t accept your own notions) it is i that can see the truth through my lense of my truth as well as acceptance of all your “truth”??
——-
I tell truth
I think you and all tell truth
If you lie; I still think you share a truth of those that fear to share/ post; thus still a truth...
I don’t trade on your truth
I trade on my work, my strengths, and idealistic view that there is truth in e everything
——-
Another short form: you got 10k; I got 500
I make more money that you going forward. Period.
No. But if you think so; let’s re visit the bet.
It’s a parameter from geert being gone as well as a direct limitation to raising capital under his direction.
In almost every scenario I can fathom; if geert is still here capital will not be raised; unless it is at “fair value for good faith assets”. But one must ask: what is likelihood capital is raised at fair value of good faith assets when geert is in control?
Zero sum!
Geert is gone or jail.
I’ve explained so many hypothetical scenarios over the years that I can’t keep track; and not one allows geert to stay.... but a few allow him to be free....
At $100 per share geert is gone.
It would be impossible for me to paint a portrait of every scenario...I try and tackle the obvious and let you think for yourself the possible outcomes...
The only scenario that would get my blood pumping (even though I have a small stake) is if geert is replaced prior to anything and everything we are all expecting/ waiting... I detest loosing money (even $100) if I have the cognoscenti to adapt and don’t...
This should be clear about me: i claimed over a week ago to be a accumulating tvix ...and as of yesterday I stated cleary I’m down 15% on 15% of my portfolio on Said position...
Now, today, I’m down 5% on 20% of portfolio...that is now...
Ps. I’m not a day trader, but I pit myself against the best odds....current odds...
Note: Twits failed to post my rant:
I merely stated that (this is short form) trump and his cronies are not buyers...they hold for sake of their ego...
THose that dislike trump are in fear and don’t participate and wait for I told you so....
Both parties lack humility and accountability.....but that’s not the point....
Point is : there are NO buyers.....and ego along with lust will open up wounds....
Yes I know. That’s quite apparent. Try an new avatar “clueless”
That’s good to disagree; what is your expectation and plan of action on foresight?
In regards to you don’t understand: i was clearly stating that if somebody holds a stake 5 times greater than mine I will most likely (am quite confident) I will still make more money than them....
....even if we were to rebalance at that moment and negate all my previous gains as well as negate all their previous losses. (This is to give a level playing field from a specific moment to enhance the chances of one.
A day! A single day! Yes flipping...to which you haven’t seen...
I would likely have a equal or greater return than one that has 500% larger exposure from that moment (eliminate prior losses for long holder....deemed irrelevant)
Nobody has Any idea how to validate or evaluate!
It’s clear I’ve been rewarded.
Personally every trade I’ve postes has had 24 hour time to participate. I don’t remember being wrong....on a posted trade. I’m the legend.
I agree, no, I don’t like after fact trades...so I agree if that’s what they did?
——
I was clearly rewarded from listening to them though...I didn’t buy/sell based on them:; as i said; i applied my skill set to some ideas they shared....i did well...
For freedom...I do twits too...ccclc77
I’ll go in open rampage soon
Ps. I’m 15% portfolio $tvix and down 15%.....
Today was transaction day....premium....
What does plunge protection do?
The “delay” inevitable!
After reading it again; I see my “how you read it” vs how I intended....is completely understandable....
"One goes to jail as compensation for financing “good faith” assets that are deemed worthless." Should have better laid out...
Ie ...geert goes to jail if he finances “good faith” assets that he is pricing as worthless....when it is clear they are not priceless. (Data could be one of many things included as “good faith” assets as my attempt was to generalize non footprint assets)
I am 100% certain of this. He will not raise capital under the current conditions with out fairly / optimistically valuation of “good faith assets (as I described above)”. If he prices them at a worthless; he is in orange.
——
$1k share was demonstrate; I’m waiting for more force...mostly waiting...but if it happened today without news...I’d be holding for $1k
And everyday based on material news....and time that changes...pps wise...
That is. Question...I can’t answer unless i had pre determined time slots...
Today; based on what we know and nothing more 100m volume would take us to $1K per share.
If it’s predicated on news? When is news? And what was pps At time of news?
It’s evolving ; and yes I said $1K a share in That specific scenario...
You may think far reaching....I think inevitable...
I know i could single handed bring price from $200 to $300 under “my dynamics”...
Ps. I have my clear and obvious small sized position here with broad parameter as there are no declarations as to whom controls or has rights to anything (including my weighted “data failure bet”)
One goes to jail as compensation for financing “good faith” assets that are deemed worthless.
Get with program...
Personally I’ve told all my buyers do not adds...wait and wait some more...
My buyers are few, small...and include me...
I would say I have face to face influence of 50k shares....no idea of the extremities....
And I’m clear....as I have been here...value, jail, patience, no reaction....I prefer failure for my stylistic approach...it’s emotiinally easier for me...I have difficulty holding for 4 to 200 baggers...so I miss them...
I eat 50% to 200% at student loan rates!
You surprised me again...
Lust eventually equals end of humanity.....consequence...
I actually appreciated some of his/her insight.
Ie. Alice mentioned ngd...I looked and researched...and waited...and waited...and waited more...then i killed it...
I listened to Alice and applied my skill set and was greatly rewarded...
I fully enjoyed that post.
A human...being human...
I didn’t get the “under appreciated” part; which kinda nullifies your point...
I can read tape
I love theory
I work
I learn a lot...I have no internal gratification other than my proximity to retirement and ability to be donating time and money to my community and world.
The extent of your creativity/sarcasm/ and objectivity was excellent; the pun missed the point.
Seriously I give a 6 out of 10 vs 9 out of 10 becuase of this...well done.
Ps. Just think....a little more...as that demonstrated (to me at least) you are far more talented than I in this respect.
What was said to garner such a reply from you?
We’ve crossed paths a few times with no issue
I’ve been trading ~ 8yrs.
Personally I quite firm on the 100m volume day.
Can you go beyond “experience”?
Are your trader for a living?
What is your focus and / or specialty;
Charts
Theory
Tape read
Share structure
Fundamental
Crisis
Fund follower
Management investigation
Other???
I’m wondering the above; and how you come to a % chance when there is no share structure parameters to merit $12 as a tracking price range.
My skills 1-10
1 tape read
2 theory
3 share structure (I could mix 2 &3)
4 Management investigation
5 crisis
6 fund follower
7 charts
8 notice 3-7 are worthless without theory.
Therefore when theory test is passed; i then read the tape
It is the work that is involved in 3-7 that even allows 2 & 1 to be mentioned...
-
Geert will be gone soon
12 is before 15 and 200....so...
100m volume is coming
$15 is more realistic.
$50 is possible as $2.
Would you like to bet somebody exercised warrants?
If not announced working coming days; the exercise prices were sub $4?
I’ll take both as a parlay if you’re interested?
$12 has zero significance; with the exception of those writing them options.
Let me explain this way: without my personal opinions and educations, skill set; I’d be a buyer at $15 to $20 before I’d buy at $12.
But I’m also the long cvm and long 10% of my portfolio in tvix
I’d really like to know what methodology you are using to mention $12?
Even if you can’t reveal your secret or it’s virtually/difficult for you to articulate; I’d like to know the general concept/idea...
For example for me: I use tape reading...
Some parts I may be able to articulate, but most not so well...
It s simple and complex at same time; but I could say I use tape reads it is a finite art that seems to be non-existent. It’s compilation of simple math with memory to find and order flow and price. Then, combined with all other knowledge it is theoretical on how to apply / behave / react to such “tape reads”
I can say with certainty volume is building within....100m share crossing should be anticipated within next 6 months...
clarity: 100m in a day volume .....will is be 3billion or 300m usd?
Ps. As I’ve said before; I am not good enough to know, but I am good enough to know somebody active does...and said person is sooo much better than you could possibly think...
So try an imagine somebody so much better; what could they be thinking or there strategy be?
And in finality; somebody doesn’t cheat, doesn’t have inside info...they are just flat out better becuase they do the work.
Taxes would take more...but not taking be on your part t is smart...
Sorry, I’m partial to English soccer...
I’d go to Kenya, Tibet, or new zealond prior to Europe. Unless to see Liverpool or Newcastle....ao vivo....
I’m a passion fan before All...
Ok...I don’t know how emgromed has $12m; the study could fail and emgromed walks with the same data as cvm...leaving cvm worthless (essentially my worse case scenario)
In event ph3 fails is does the data itself hold value if somebody else has it....or would it be of more value if only cvm had it?
Try looking through this lense:
Engromed gets access to all. You all seem to interpret engromed as “in need” and dependent on “cvm ph3 MK”.
You ever think engromed feels/ accounts as if they are getting paid to do what they Already do and gain access to the only given within the study framework? Failure or. Not? The data....
Does anybody think engromed is a charity?
Enrofmed was like “hey, there is this genius guy geert doing to study and he’s paying big bucks...he’s fire sales everything, albeit he’s at the end.. he’s been toxic diluter , internal financing....
But, cvm is at the end, they have money, a facilty, the have shares...
Short story: engromed was in the money via data trap since day one....why else accept at the market shares?
Duh? Is logic kicking in yet? It actually demonstrates a good deal by geert “at this moment”....And a faith deal “at this moment “
I’m stifling, but think I found an analogy.....
A billboard....
Engromed does billboards....
Cvm sells med
Billboard is vacant
Cvm says we want to advertise...on your billboard that
Engromed gets paid by cvm to post the ad (billboard)
But they also get results of effectiveness of the ad...etc....
This glassware clearly and logically implies engromed is getting paid prior to any valuation of the product they actual ly sell...
In other word , it could be construed as a longevity asset that is in reality being rented at a premium plus “bonus!”
Good move on your part.
I don’t have any shape of currency hedge what so ever.
Like I said: i think there is slim chance of total success; therefore I am long. (No i do not have a massive position at this time in relation to my portfolio)
I feel very comfortable no matter the outcome; I’m quite convinced that I could trade out for a decent profit even in the event of ph3 failure. (My last re-enter was mid low 7’s.)
To achieve this I would have to rely on my best skill of tape read....which should be quite easy in such an event as there would be 2 clear positions: the idiot and the know
A perfect example of somebody who knows is engromed. As they take payment is shares...
Many point to this as justification for success....
For me it is justification that the data and participation is extremely valuable in itself irrelevant of the final outcome.
Note:
The are 2 important parts of every bet- (that are simplistic and over looked)
“The why?”
The how you fund “the why?”
No. I will not pay in event of buyout.
That is a grand portion of my leverage...I honestly don’t know how to value the data even in event of failure....
I’m a worse case trader...I am excellent at picking the bottom....not so good at everything else...
My scenarios run : I can’t imagine geert still here ....there is not one scenario I can envision that he remains...
There could be one scenario; but that involves his likelihood of going to jail, but the formalities have yet to take place....and that would be very bad for everybody including - including me in the event somebody takes my bet.
You understand: I’m trying to buy protection against the least likely outcome of all...geert still at the helm due to proceedings and formalities...
Why is the bet still a value bet? Because whom ever accepts this bet and is right (therefore I lost a lot of money) deserves maximum attention and observation becuase they must be one smart - educated MF er (lack of better word...sorry for profanity)
Seriously think to yourselves:
Is geert still around in event:
Buyout?
Ph3 fail
Ph3 success
No ph3 close and funding required
There are zero funding options without change or closure of ph3 that are fathomable without geert facing jail.
Can you see geert and HC parting each other’s backs and geert stays is a successful ph3? I think not.
I won’t waste time reconstructing every scenario...i provided my output.
It would be borderline reckless to delete from my mind the scenarios I have mentioned and suggested others entertain.
To remind you, I am long cvm, with a bias towards slim chance of success: yet even more comfortable than most if not all of you in the event of failure....
Ps. I have extreme confidence in my worse case scenarios trading methodology
Agreed. Thus we can only fathom the amount of data that has been complied outside the “enrollment “ numbers...
Look at traders of cvm...of any equity for that matter...the needle moves and it’s panic...joy...panic...(actually it’s...(and this is what I see clear....emotions that don’t even coincide....)....it’s actually fear ....I’m knew i was right....fear....I knew i was right....fear...I knew was right...both of which can be described as an investors/traders/ humans worst traits....it’s self gratification vs what would be an appropriate word?
Imagine it’s your life at stake....
Try to imagine the “failure to enroll” rate?
Imagine the data complied...
Thanks for helping me articulate my point....
The net, if you’re interested is $1k geert gone within a year.
The only other clarity I could imagine you need assistance in understanding is that I think the chances are slim for a positive readout. However, I have firmly beleive the data has significant value even in the event of failure.... and I have no idea how to quantify such.
Side note:
You realize; most of you are attempting to build probabilities without having defined the terms ?