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Friday, September 13, 2019 2:43:13 AM
That is a grand portion of my leverage...I honestly don’t know how to value the data even in event of failure....
I’m a worse case trader...I am excellent at picking the bottom....not so good at everything else...
My scenarios run : I can’t imagine geert still here ....there is not one scenario I can envision that he remains...
There could be one scenario; but that involves his likelihood of going to jail, but the formalities have yet to take place....and that would be very bad for everybody including - including me in the event somebody takes my bet.
You understand: I’m trying to buy protection against the least likely outcome of all...geert still at the helm due to proceedings and formalities...
Why is the bet still a value bet? Because whom ever accepts this bet and is right (therefore I lost a lot of money) deserves maximum attention and observation becuase they must be one smart - educated MF er (lack of better word...sorry for profanity)
Seriously think to yourselves:
Is geert still around in event:
Buyout?
Ph3 fail
Ph3 success
No ph3 close and funding required
There are zero funding options without change or closure of ph3 that are fathomable without geert facing jail.
Can you see geert and HC parting each other’s backs and geert stays is a successful ph3? I think not.
I won’t waste time reconstructing every scenario...i provided my output.
It would be borderline reckless to delete from my mind the scenarios I have mentioned and suggested others entertain.
To remind you, I am long cvm, with a bias towards slim chance of success: yet even more comfortable than most if not all of you in the event of failure....
Ps. I have extreme confidence in my worse case scenarios trading methodology
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