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Hip, even if someone doesn't see their shady past, I see the biggest hurdle for anyone to ever want to do business/partner with these guys is the 3 shares of the series A preferred stock which Mark and his two accomplices own. Who would ever take that risk with such a poor balance sheet combined with their ultimate trump card that allows Mark to do what ever he wants and send you down the river without a paddle.
Additionally, they will start the presses running again as the authorized is still at 3 billion. All the signs of another "take".
As a long time holder of CSDT, Gene Scher came in and sucked the life out of CSDT. He is no longer at this company and Dan Farkas is trying to rebuild from what we understand.
In case you're wondering, today we have a visit from an old friend VERT now on the ask. They just can't help themselves. So much for a run after the split. The dilution machine is running again with downward pressure.
What's really funny about that is pre split, it's only $.006. Still far from a penny.
Don't be fooled by this news, there will be dilution. Nothing changed post split in their financial status. It has to continue albeit at a slower pace (higher price per share) until they are cash flow positive. It may actually increase if they decide to pump and then sell to equitize the debt on the balance sheet.
Mark and team better figure out something quick or what little money we had left after their "Blow Out Sale" will be reduced by another 70% as it is now sitting at $.04. Basically, all those purchases at .0001 are now worth a whooping .000028.
Not sure they want anyone to even purchase with the $1 ask sitting out there, crazy bid ask spread, even for SFOR...sorry now SFORD.
Not sure the math works on a billion shares coming to market when we had 6 billion outstanding on release date of the split with 6.75 billion issued.
Post split, outstanding shares go to around 4 million. That being said, if they can get the price up to and around $1 per share (post) then they now have an opportunity to actually do some good with selling shares and equitize the debt on the balance sheet. I think for anyone to take SFOR serious, it's more about their balance sheet than the incremental revenue. IMHO, if the balance sheet is strong, the revenue will follow.
I think it all depends on this quarterly report which is close to being announced. If there is no new revenue to report and it is lower than Q3'13 then we all know the direction. I would also like to see their cash position to see if they blew though all this cash they just printed.
Wow, slightly larger than I thought at 1500 to 1. I was betting on 1000 to 1. Nice.
Lode, while I agree SFOR has potential and is a real company, I just think the headwind for cash is too strong at this point and the reason we see no change in share price, yet such high volume is the massive amount of dilution that has occured. I think we might all want to wait until they announce some recurring revenue and a reverse split. I think the outstanding shares are probably closer to 5.5 billion and I bet we reverse closer to 30 million. That is where I started with SFOR when OS were just over 30 million. I bet we see it again as history does have a tendency to repeat.
From what I remember, back in early Q4'13, Sentinel filled an order to relieve them from any suit SFOR might file naming them, since they are/were (not sure current status) their liability insurance provider and refused to cover them with the WhiteSky lawsuit. Since Sentinel took this action, the courts needed to make a determination of what is covered and not covered. Also, I think this was never served because of the nature of this order.
L2 displays available shares at 1/100th of their real value, not 1/1,000th. So VERT has 45 million sitting on the ask and CSTI has 21.1 million shares. God can take a rest for now with his help.
OT from what I understand, the Whitesky lawsuit is not under the contingency agreement and SFOR is paying for representation from Blank Rome. Only the patent lawsuit is under the contingency. I think this might be why SFOR was needing so much cash. Additionally, all the patent filings are paid by SFOR directly. Keeping Long...
Here is the monthly share volume report for SFOR in September with the 3 big diluters trading 394 million shares in September alone.
http://www.otcbb.com/asp/tradeact_mv.asp?SearchBy=issue&Issue=SFOR&Month=9-1-2013&IMAGE1.x=28&IMAGE1.y=0
Makes you wonder when Kay can shut off the valve. I'm not sure he can and as I said before, I think this is no longer a revenue play (probably $200K at best for Q3'13), as we are too far past that point of return. This is now just a settlement/potential buyout for the patent.
Hokie, I'm thinking a settlement (based upon Whitesky's revenue of around $40-$50K per month) will yield somewhere shy of $1 million for breach of contract. Any additional will be based upon forward earnings under the terms and if the new OOB provider is now infringing upon their patent.
Talls, a little DD goes a long way as you say. If you do some on the inventor...Ram Pemmaraju, he is the Chief Technology Officer at SFOR and his background is in network security and one of the original inventors of ProtectID.
Joe, you hit the nail on the head. As shareholders we assumed all these "excited" PR's had some merit and that SFOR had diversified away from 1 or 2 customers. These results are a slap in the face to all shareholders and then a kick in the ass when you add the 50% reduction in your position by selling 100% more shares. Maybe Kay should kiss us first before the f$%@in' starts....
Awful...slight understatement. Joe, to your point, I thought I read somewhere that Whitesky was about $40+ thousand per month in recurring revenue, which is in the middle of your range.
I agree that any settlement with WS is only revenue for 2013 or 2014 then SFOR heads back to a $27K per quarter run rate.
I think this 10Q changes everything for them. It now closes the chapter on the revenue game and starts the next about selling the patents and products...
I think my AMEX bill is more than SFOR's revenue for the month. Clearly, they did not need to spend $100K per month for $9K per month in revenue...that math equals goodbye
For what it's worth, I think Q2'13 numbers should be slightly below Q1'13. I don't see much changing for SFOR in Q2 from a revenue standpoint, but I do see an increase in expenses, hence the need for the additional shares. (By the way, VERT back on the ASK...more dilution).
I think the guidance or a change in expectations is what I'm looking for from SFOR. Basically, are the lowering their revenue target for 2013 any why. If they want to be a real company, they need to start acting like one and providing real guidance along with forward expectations. IMO
Very short lived. Starting this month where we left off the last day of July. VERT back on the ASK again, but instead of showing their usual 10K, they now show 2.4 million. I thought the 175 million increase was going to hold them off for a bit, but looks like we have another round of dilution. I would like to see how many more shares have been issued since the last increase. We might be closer to 650 million by the time the Q is out.
Anyone notice the MM's taking a stand at .009. There are now almost 17 million shares on the ask. Seems like they may know something coming in the future.
Joe you forgot to mention the fact that on 2 prior occasions, SFOR lowered their fees at the request of WS with no documentation or recordkeeping. Maybe this was a situation where SFOR received an invoice that showed users x agreed upon rate = revenue to SFOR and they assumed that the user number was accurate since it was increasing over time.
Good reading and I think we can assume that a number was already thrown at Whitesky for settlement. I would hope it was for far more than the $40K per month in revenue and would include some licensing fee or infringement money since the replacement provider must use some type of OOB Authentication.
Additionally, look at who is on the Board of Directors of White Sky...venture cap firms with backgrounds in technology. These guys invested to get their money back and then some by taking WS public. If that's in the works, they would want no part of a lawsuit, so settlement is in their best interest as well.
I'm not so sure on that "I am not". By definition, to bash is a verb of Informal use to criticize (another) harshly, accusatorially, and threateningly...
I think we all can agree on the fact that Joe is probably the best moderator and easily can see everyone's point of view even though he may not necessarily agree.
Anyone got an extra $11.7K laying around to take out all those .0009's on the ask....I see the hurdles just got higher with all these new shares on the market.
Me too on the addition of 5 million. I hope we hit bottom and can start moving up. At these prices, it's worth a shot and my upside is much better considering my ability to throw craps and some news could get us back to .01 or close...gamble on.
You might want to lower your bid. So short lived, both VERT and VFIN on the ask again. Maybe they are just cleaning house before the close of month end. Maybe Pope is right in heading to 1 billion in outstanding...
You got it. I've watched those guys do it every time and each time I keep asking about what happened to cash flow positive. Every year since the end of 2011 it has been mentioned and it is now 2013 and they keep printing more shares.
Joe, I think you are right and the MM's of VERT and VFIN are off the ask. When you see those guys pop-up, look for price to decline. They do it every time.
We are getting near the end of the month, so we should continue to see big sell volume as these guys are trying to unload all these extra shares. Hopefully, this 70+ million sale day gets us to the end and we can start moving up. Good luck and long SFOR
Joe, you hit the nail on the head...it's not about the talk, its about following through on the talk. I don't even listen to the Webex's since we all know the story. There are many of us here that have been though this before with SFOR and Buzz has seen the most. I still like the potential (lawsuit), but for once management needs to be held accountable for the S/P and make "cash flow positive" happen like we heard for the last 18 months. The clock is ticking and the countdown will probably end in 9 months without some patent and litigation news.
Thanks for the confidence in my responses. Here is what I understand. First, the patent lawsuit is public and has a much shorter life than 2+ years. Why...because there is no way one of the top 10 patent law firms takes this case on full contingency, their ROI calculations don't factor in that long for recovery (they have to figure this is $10's of millions to them). Additionally, this is just the first wave of lawsuits since I have heard that more infringers have been identified.
The company does make revenue, but when you look at all the operations, the cost of the additional patent filings coupled with fighting Whitesky, making debt service and growing has been tough. From what I remember reading, Whitesky was providing about $40K per month in revenue. That was about 30% of their 2013 forecast, so fighting is what they need to do to help survive until some patent moneys come in.
I think the 14c stated that the company increased shares by 175 million. Now each day, you see VERT and VFIN on the ask, those are the shares causing the dilution. The rest is other MM picking up inventory, covering shorts and us investors. The money side of this is very different. for instance, 200 million shares only raises about $150K, but for short term 144 6-month financing, this requires about 800 million shares in reserves and hence the increase in authorized.
I think with them needing to fund the fight with Whitesky, the filing of the additional patients and the normal cost of business, they are burning through the cash. I don't think a stock without more revenue can keep taking this hit, but if it can make it through the next 6 months, it's worth a shot, just not the farm...
WaaHooo, VERT and VFIN off the ask. Some volume here will get us back up. Looks like NITE is taking the ax position with a bunch of shares on the ask. If we can keep VERT and VFIN off for several weeks coupled with some positive news, things might start to look up...
Before we get moving in the right direction, we need some volume to knock out VERT on the ask again showing only 10K shares. Also notice that the first trade showed NITE's hand at 3.2 million shares sitting on the ask at .0014. Each sale small sale will continue to ratchet down the ask with more and more shares until they are cleaned out.
I hope you are right on the revenue front because without it, SFOR will need to continue to raise money via shares. Right now is not a cheap time for them. While the patient litigation is under contingency, the filings for any patient continuation, keylogging, MobileTrust and the cost to maintain operations/sales are piling up rather quickly each month.
Sure, I'll take the bet, what do you want to wager?
Wow, that 14c is a bit tough to swallow. I'm not sure what I like least, the increase in authorized or the increase in outstanding. Basically from the last 14c in April, SFOR increased the shares outstanding 40% from 425 million to 601 million.
Now I see why the volume reports were so high with VERT and VFIN for May and June. I can't see the weekly volume report for July, but starting the month, we still have about 100 million shares to go.
HipHop, the investment is all relative to each individual based upon his/her means. So in those terms, it's not the dollars that's important, it's the delta of percent. For example, If you purchased 500,000 shares for say $800, then yesterday's rise in SP would represent a gain of $500 or 62.5%, which is not too bad. If you want larger dollar returns, kick up the shares to 5 million or more.