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Wow!, are we all turning into metalheads?
JFF7
NUTSABOUTGOLF - BWR
I have been struggling with the choice of holding on or taking some profits for the last couple of days. Traditionally, I have been caught up in the action and have not sold at the peak and ended up waiting too long. Deciding when to sell is always the toughest investment decision for me. So I have been in and out of BWR a few times trying to take advantage of the big dips by selling when it looks weak and take advantage of the dips to buy back.
I have also been impressed with the strength of the stock over the last couple of days. I normally would have expected a sell off much sooner based on the history of similiar pullbacks of the stock.
I also looked at how ALCAN was behaving. This was a positive. But TECK also reported recently and pulled back about 4% from it's recent highs. Not so positive.
I think the zinc inventories dropping the way they are, and the fact that they are quickly approaching that critical 1-2 days supply level is a significant factor to consider. This is when the biggest impact to zinc prices is felt from declining inventories. The new all time high for zinc prices today may have been a significant reason why BWR did not sell off today.
I am thinking that even if BWR does sell off, it will not be much given the continued draw on inventories and impact on prices that it will have at this critical point in inventory levels. So I don't see much opportunity to sell now and purchase back later at much lower prices.
My mid term expectation (6-9 months) is that BWR price will contiinue to rise so I see little reason to sell at this point.
I guess I will know whether or not I madee the right decision in a few days.
JFF7
Nuts:
I know that the vectorvest value formula is fairly involved but does it take into account tax credits?
JFF7
Hogfan
?????
JFF7
Bobwins - San Gold
Heard a rumor that San Gold is issuing 20 million convertible preferred shares. 2 year paying 10% interest. Convertible at 1.40. The offering is closed in 1-2 weeks.
Just thought you might like to know since this is one of your favorites.
JFF7
Bobwins - Yamana,
Agree the future looks bright for AUR.
Do you own warrants in Yamana and if so which ones do you consider the better choice.
JFF7
GUy Zinc
I think the final inventory level is right but it was a decrease of 1700 not 1250. A minor point but, zinc inventories are still dropping quickly.
JFF7
BWR 2006 copper production is also down 25%
Yikes, I sure hope some of this bad news is baked into the price.
JFF7
BWR lowers 2006 zinc production forecast by 15%
Ouch! Look out below!
http://www.stockhouse.ca/pfolio.asp?page=displaynews&portid=10497&viewid=1&newsid=717705...
JFF7
Resource stocks
Are resource stocks (particularly base metal stocks) falling because the money supply around the world is tightening? which in turn is slowing global economies, which in turn is slowing demand for resources?
Just trying to figure out if I am in the right stocks.
Any thoughts?
JFF7
Kipp440: EZM
"....The EZM CEO would be CEO so basically EZM is taking them over.My guess is that they are using Lundin stock to essentially do a sort of a reverse split. ..."
I disagree that EZM is taking over Lundin. It is the other way around. Look at the size of the Lundin conglomerate. Yes, it is an amicable deal but the bigger company usually ends up dominating. That's just the way it is.
The HBM CEO is just the best man for the job heading up the new company. Remember, he has only been at HBM for a couple of years so it's not like he has a heavily vested interest in EZM running the show.
Until the merger is completed and the question of no other suitors is answered, EZM stock price probably will not benefit as much from any general upward movement in the sector provided by declining inventory levels and rising zinc prices.
JMO,
JFF7
OT: Bobwins- ValureForum
Hi Bob,
Do you subscribe to ValueForum where this guy posts? Is it worth it?
Have fun,
JFF7
Silver stocks?
Does anyone know of any good silver stock plays? Just started looking. Any good ones to start with?
JFF7
Cl0001 Base metals
Good day but we needed it after a day like yesterday. Still, inching higher each week.
JFF7
Curlews - analysts projections for Ni and Copper prices
I agree with what you are saying. The author of the article is inconsistent. However, I find his copper predictions more realistic than his nickel predictions. He is predicting an average Nickel price at 8.00 for 2006 when the YTD average is higher than that at 8.67 and the price of NI is currently trading over 13 dollars? HUH? The price of nickel would have to crash the last four months of the year for that prediction to come true.
I think the author just needs to update his 2006 price predictions for Nickel. He probably knows intuitively but analysts are very slow to revise their predictions upwards. Especially analysts in the mining sector. Remember copper was the first of the base metals to take off. Nickel is the lates one. It's at least a year behind. Until Nickel has held these lofty prices for a more extended period of time, analysts will be slow to upgrade their price predictions.
Once he updates his predicted price for NI, there will be consistency.
Just my take on it,
JFF7
Knowledge is King - Telt
Be careful with this one. Management is very slippery. A lot of others here have owned this one. I was one of them. Lost about 75 of the value in a blink of the eye but held on till a bogus PR came out about some company in Europe offering some unbelieveable price per share. Stock price jumped back up and I jumped out with most of my money. Lucky.
As I remember it, the company has a core business with a substantial amount of revenue (although declining) based on older product. The revenues fluctuate seasonally so they can usually post a positive quarter at leats once a year. LOts of ideas for new products but do not believe any of them really come to fruition.
At least that is how I remember it.
It may be a different story this time around.
Be careful is all I am saying.
JFF7
CL001, Digitech - BWR
What's there to read. The bottomline is they posted 8 cents a share when the analysts were targetting 11 cents a share. And that's only because their copper sales were way up because they delayed recognitiion of any copper sales in the first quarter.
Their zinc concentrate production was down 60% from last year due to mine closures and reduced results from one of their existing mines.
I am selling tomorrow given these results and the way they have handled the release of the quarterly financials. It smacks of incompetence.
On the other hand if you want an alternative, look at INMET which mines mainly copper and zinc. They annouced today after market close. The analyst's call was for 2.14 a share. They made something like 2.74 a share. Tommorrow will be a great day to own their shares. Unfortunately, I picked the wrong horse and I don't own any shares.
Oh well, live and learn.
JFF7
Wade - high p/es
I have often heard it said that the leaders in a sector will command a P/E that is twice the industry average.
What does it take to be one of the industry leaders? From what I have seen, it takes an impecable track record of ever increasing revenue and earnings and a financial outlook for the same. On top of that the investing community (at least those that invest in the sector your company operates in) must have been following you for a number of quarters. No stumbles along the way. The company has to be one of the analysts darlings because of it's consistent and predictable results.
I think companies end up with high P/Es because of this consistent growth record, immpecable balance sheet, great relationshiup with the analysts, and large following in the investor community. The feeling that they can do no wrong.
The investing community often calls this "priced for perfection".
JFF7
CL0001 - BWR
How do you figure BWR can make .13? Last qtr they made .10 and most of that was a one time tax gain. Without it, it was .03 or .04 , wasn't it?
They have two things going for them this qtr (delayed copper sales from last qtr and higher Zinc prices) but still a long way to .13.
JFF7
I've read many of BBB's posts. He's great with words but when he is all said and done, his words can't help GFCI's track record. It speaks for itself. And the one word it says is SCAM!
JFF7
GFCI is a scam. What promises have they delivered on?
Just one pump after another. Their track record speak s for itself.
JFF7
Cyofish is being civil. Just because he is not saying the things you want to hear does not mean he doecnt have a point.
This company is an out right scam. Any one that can't see that from the lack of informaion and follow through on what they say they will do in their press releases.
JFF7
Nutsaboutgolf,
Any particular small mining stocks you like to do well with the rise in the price of nickel?
JFF7
Kipp440 : metal inventory reports
Try the report on manmetals.com
It comes out a little earlier than kitcometals.com.
Have fun,
JFF7
when does PSL3 start? What is the deadline for entry?
Sorry if this is already common knowledge to all the players but I am new to the contest.
JFF7
abh3vt - NCNC
"Regarding the estimates for FY06, remember who we're dealing with here."
Who are the Duquettes? Are these projeted earnings totally BS?
JFF7
PFNH what ever became of that convertible debt they had that was diluting the outstanding share count by half a million to a million shares a month (depending on where the share price was at).
Funny, no one seems to ever mention that.
JFF7
GLN.TO (or T.GLN) - Glentel
Value play in wireless retailor In Canada. Announced 4th results on Thursday after market close.
Consolidated net income was up 43% Y/Y, ($0.30 per share, compared $0.21 per share, for the same quarter last year).
Consolidated sales for the 4th quarter increased 68% to $51,375,000, compared to $30,595,000 in 2004.
Only 10 million share outstanding. Market cap is only 1/2 of annual sales. Profitable for 3-4 years.
http://www.stockhouse.ca/news/news.asp?newsid=3500440&tick=GLN
A forward P/E of 8 with two more quarters to go with soft comparisons. Trading at $7.40 Cdn with a target price of 12-13 dollars from Vector Vest analysis tool. See below (copied from some guy who printed it on Stockhouse).
Disclaimer: I own shares in this company.
---------------------------------------------------------------
VectorVest Stock Analysis of Glentel Inc as of 3/17/2006
This report has five major sections.
Capital Appreciation Analysis
Dividend Analysis
Price-Volume Data
Sales / Market Capitalization Information
Summary
The ticker symbol for Glentel Inc is GLN. GLN is traded on the Toronto Exchange - (T)
Business: GLENTEL INC, (GLN) Operates as a Canadian wireless communications, mobile satellite and personal communications company The company maintains 11 wireless business center locations in Canada
Business Sector: GLN has been assigned to the Retail Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Industry Group: GLN has been assigned to the Retail (Misc\Diversified) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Capital Appreciation Analysis Back to top
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. GLN has a current Value of $12.89 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $7.40 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. GLN has an RV of 1.47, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.
RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. GLN has an RS rating of 1.09, which is fair on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. GLN has a Relative Timing rating of 1.27, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.
VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. GLN has a VST rating of 1.28, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. GLN has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.
Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. GLN has a Stop of $6.84 per share. This is $0.56 below GLN's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. GLN has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 19.00%, which VectorVest considers to be very good. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, (7.54%).
EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. GLN has a forecasted EPS of $0.87 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. GLN has a P/E of 8.51. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 35.21. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.
EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. GLN has an EY of 11.76 percent. This is above the current average of 2.84% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. GLN has a GPE rating of 2.24. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.34%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.29. Therefore, GLN may be considered to be undervalued.
Dividend Analysis Back to top
DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. GLN does not pay a dividend.
DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects dividend per share as a percent of Price. GLN does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.
DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. GLN does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.
DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. GLN does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .
YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. GLN does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.
Price-Volume Data Back to top
Price: GLN closed on 3/17/2006 at $7.40 per share
Open: GLN opened trading at a price of $7.21 per share on 3/17/2006.
High: GLN traded at a High price of $7.84 per share on 3/17/2006.
Low: GLN traded at a Low price of $7.21 per share on 3/17/2006
Close: GLN closed trading at price $7.40 per share on 3/17/2006. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)
Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. GLN traded with a range of $0.63 per share on 3/17/2006.
$Change: GLN closed up 0.59 from the prior day's closing Price.
%PRC: GLN's Price changed 8.66% from the prior day's closing price.
Volume: GLN traded 107,520 shares on 3/17/2006.
AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. GLN has an AvgVol of 10,400 shares traded per day.
%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100. GLN had a %Vol of 933.85% on 3/17/2006
CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. GLN has a CI rating of 0.82, which is poor on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.
Sales / Market Capitalization Information Back to top
Sales: GLN has annual sales of $125,000,000.00
Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. GLN has a Sales Growth of 69.00% per year. This is excellent. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.
Sales Per Share (SPS): GLN has annual sales of $12.39 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): GLN has a P/S of 0.60. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Shares: GLN has 10,000,000.00 shares of stock outstanding.
Market Capitalization: GLN has a Market Capitalization of $74,000,000.00. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.
Summary Back to top
GLN is undervalued compared to its Price of $7.40 per share, has about average safety, and is currently rated a Buy.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy Low risk, High reward stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough High Relative Value, High Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find that your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve.
New Zinc production.
I agree that there is no known mega mines coming on stream but some known new production will come from EZM, HBM and BWR is reopening their Langlois mine.
No mega mines there but there is increased production on the horizon. Still got some time for this thing to peak once or twice more so there is lots of quick profit potential. But it will remain volatile.
The seasonal slow down is also something to watch out for. Tpically in March / April things slow down. It shouldn't happen this year but......
In my mind there is also the real good chance that the producers are playing games with their inventories. I wouldn't be suprised if they are using the higher prices as an opportunity to mine their lower grade ores.
Also I remember last year when inventories were falling, all of a sudden there was a one day 100,000 increase in the LME inventory levels. It certainly took me by suprise.
Bottomline, there is a lot of potential here but expecct a lot of volatility. play it close or be willing to accept some big us and downs.
JFF7
KOZUH Cdn miners
Are in to any of the zinc stocks like EZM or BWR (Breakwater). Any thoughts on whether or not these stocks will make the usual seasonal pullback that happens each year about the enfd of Feb. or March. ?
JFF7
Anyone watching the commodities like base metals. Inventories (LME) are dropping and prices are rising. Volatility is increasing. I think mining stocks are a good place to be for 2006. Especially the smaller Canadian ones that are already producing.
Zinc is up over 1.03 this morning.
Have fun!
JFF7
what do you mean? Are they buying or selling?
JFF7
Digitech Re: DAAT
I am of the same opinion that based on the numbers DAAT should be moving up. Perhaps it is just a lack of attention. There are alot of other sectors getting a lot of attention right now.
It's probably only a matter of time till DAAT gets some time in the spot light again. They keep posting some great numbers.
Have fun!
JFF7
Len
as I recall Dr. Bill had very little left of his original investment based on his last disclosure ot the board. He had so little left. Does it really matter when he sold his remaining shares? Presumably he sold his remaining shares in the last jump based on the announcement of a buyback.
JFF7
BBB
I am here because I won shares. What I object to is you pumping the stock with your pie in the sky calculations.
Even them. I don't mind because everyone is entitled to his or her opinion and can express the same.
But when you repeatedly post it, to me it sounds like pumping. I'm glad your excited about the stock though.
JFF7
Pump, pump and pump again.
JFF7
Hogfan2,PFNH
Do you own this stock? Just for the purposes of playing a short squeeze or do you see longer term value here?
TIA,
JFF7
do pigs really fly?
JFF7
Dr. Bill, Mr. Reality ?
"In my efforts to keep things grounded I have become portrayed as mr negative which Im not."
On the contrary, compared to Been Burned Before, you sound very grounded and realistic. On the pinks, it's easy for people to get carried away by teh cries from the zealots, "Just believe in this stock and all will be well!".
I hope you stock around and keep letting people know when they are getting unrealistic.
JFF7
IPHG has a bid of 30 cents and an ask of 75 cents. A sign of good things to happen? I know, I know, we can tell nothing from this and the last recorded sale of IPHG was at 6 cents.
It looks like there is approximately 10.5 million shares outstanding of IPHG. They were around 16 million as of the last SEC filing but it looks like they did a reverse split last month (3 for 2). I wonder why they did that?
So many questions! But I am somewhat upbeat about the situation now.
JFF7