NUTSABOUTGOLF - BWR
I have been struggling with the choice of holding on or taking some profits for the last couple of days. Traditionally, I have been caught up in the action and have not sold at the peak and ended up waiting too long. Deciding when to sell is always the toughest investment decision for me. So I have been in and out of BWR a few times trying to take advantage of the big dips by selling when it looks weak and take advantage of the dips to buy back.
I have also been impressed with the strength of the stock over the last couple of days. I normally would have expected a sell off much sooner based on the history of similiar pullbacks of the stock.
I also looked at how ALCAN was behaving. This was a positive. But TECK also reported recently and pulled back about 4% from it's recent highs. Not so positive.
I think the zinc inventories dropping the way they are, and the fact that they are quickly approaching that critical 1-2 days supply level is a significant factor to consider. This is when the biggest impact to zinc prices is felt from declining inventories. The new all time high for zinc prices today may have been a significant reason why BWR did not sell off today.
I am thinking that even if BWR does sell off, it will not be much given the continued draw on inventories and impact on prices that it will have at this critical point in inventory levels. So I don't see much opportunity to sell now and purchase back later at much lower prices.
My mid term expectation (6-9 months) is that BWR price will contiinue to rise so I see little reason to sell at this point.
I guess I will know whether or not I madee the right decision in a few days.
JFF7
It's better to be out wishing you were in than in wishing you were out.
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". - John Maynard Keynes
