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LIM / RNO
Yes it was a no brainer to sell LIM and flip into RNO. Picked up an extra 10% that way.
Actually the smart place would have been to go into the RNO warrants as I think they are now in the moeny and are highly leveraged. You should make about 50% more with the warrants than you will with the shares but you do have th eliquidity issue to deal with.
What a day for the metalheads!
JFF7
LIM and other offers
I sold my position in LIM at 19.38 today and rolled it into RNO which should run a little because of LIM but also it should have a pre-earnings run before they report after the market closes on Wednesday. Also adding some QUA.to as I see a lot of value there and the market has started to recognise it. Currently at 9 but I think it will go to somewhere between 12-15 depending on how strong copper remains.
The market is obviously anticpating more offers. Based on your number on previous premiums this is to be expected. Perhaps the only difference is that we are that much closer to the top of the market. The premiums may not be as big because of that.
I wonder how quickly the offers will be put together and hit the table.
JFF7
Xstrata poised for $4b LionOre bid
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/xstrata-poised-for-4b-lionore-bid/2007/03/26/1174761332222.html
Email Print Normal font Large font Jamie Freed
March 26, 2007 - 1:18PM
Xstrata is poised to launch a $4 billion-plus takeover bid for Australian-listed nickel miner LionOre Mining International as early as this evening.
LionOre, which is headquartered in Toronto but has several mining operations in Western Australia, has been rumoured to be a target for the Anglo-Swiss mining giant in recent weeks.
LionOre, which has a secondary listing in Australia scheduled to be removed later this year, entered a trading halt this morning. The company's managing director for Australia, Brian Hill, would not comment on the reasons for the trading halt.
"As soon as (an) announcement is available to be made, it will be made," he said.
But the Herald has learned Xstrata is preparing to launch an offer for the company, which has a market value of $3.85 billion before any bid premium, which typically adds 30 per cent or so to the price of a company.
Xstrata's purchase of LionOre would follow its $US17.2 billion acquisition of Canadian nickel miner Falconbridge last year. Xstrata has also been an active player in Australia in recent years, having successfully purchased Mt Isa Mines and made an unsuccessful tilt at WMC Resources.
Earlier this month, South African newspaper Business Day reported LionOre chief operating officer Peter Breese declined to comment on whether his company had received an approach from Xstrata. But Mr Breese added the speculation about an Xstrata bid for LionOre probably arose because LionOre was the only "pure play" nickel producer still listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the largest based on metal production.
Nickel prices rose above $US50,000 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange for the first time earlier this month, amid a shortage of supply and increased demand for stainless steel. LionOre expects to produce 44,300 tonnes of nickel at a cash cost of $US3.52 a pound this year.
LionOre shares last traded at $17.59.
Copper on the rise?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=arZ4CaxIBD30&refer=commodities
Copper May Rise Next Week as China Imports Gain, Survey Says
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Copper may gain next week after China, the world's largest consumer of the metal used in wires and pipes, increased imports.
Eight of 18 people surveyed yesterday and March 21 forecast copper will rise next week. Seven expected a decline and three were neutral. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange has gained 2.4 percent this week. The contract has risen 29 percent this year.
China more than doubled imports in February from a year ago to 152,651 metric tons, the Beijing-based customs office said yesterday. That's the highest since May 2005, according to Bloomberg data.
This week's survey results:
Bullish: 8 Bearish: 7 Neutral: 3
This should help undervalued copper plays like QUA.to.
China imports of copper doubled in February
http://english.eviewweek.com/n11103c17.asx
BEIJING, March 23 -- China, the world's biggest consumer of copper, more than doubled imports of the metal in February compared with the same month last year as the nation entered its peak demand period for the construction industry.
Imports of refined copper and alloys rose to 152,651 metric tons, 167 percent more than a year earlier, according to data issued by the Beijing-based Customs office yesterday. That's the highest import level since May 2005, according to data by Bloomberg News.
The price of copper, used in plumbing materials and wires, has gained five percent so far this year amid speculation that Chinese imports would pick up on seasonal demand. The country drew on its stockpiles after prices rose to a record 8,800 U.S. dollars a ton on May 11, and last year's imports slumped by almost a third.
"Chinese demand for imports is showing no sign of flagging," said Li Ling, a trader at Star Futures Co. in Shanghai. "As it's entering a peak consumption period, some processors increased purchases."
Copper prices have rallied every year since 2002 because of falling stockpiles, strong Chinese demand and supply disruptions from major producers such as Chile.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months rose 136dollars, or 2.1 percent, to 6,745 U.S. dollars a ton, at 6:08pm Shanghai time yesterday. Copper for delivery in June rose 0.7 percent to settle at 61,000 yuan (7,895 dollars) a ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
China's apparent consumption of copper was 356,763 tons in February, according to Bloomberg calculations derived by combining production and imports, minus exports and reported stockpile increases.
China's demand for copper rose to 387,000 tons in January from 288,000 tons a year earlier, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said on Wednesday.
The country's output of copper fell 4.8 percent to 220,000 tons in February, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics issued in a statement on March 16.
Refined copper production has been limited by shortages of copper concentrates, the raw material for the refined metal. Imports of copper concentrates rose 35 percent to 392,366 tons in February, the customs data showed.
In February, copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 16,888 tons, or 70 percent, to 40,886 tons. Stockpiles of the rival lightweight metal aluminum rose 63,334 tons, or 217 percent, to 92,927 tons.
(Source: Shanghai Daily)
LIM Takeover?
"Xstrata: No Comment On Bid For Australia's LionOre Report
22:32 EDT Sunday, March 25, 2007
MELBOURNE -(Dow Jones)- Xstrata PLC (XTA.LN) declined to comment Monday on a report it was planning a A$4 billion takeover bid for LionOre Mining International Ltd. (LIM.AU).
The Sydney Morning Herald website is reporting Xstrata may launch a bid for LionOre as early as this evening.
"We don't comment on any sort of speculation," a spokesman for Xstrata said.
LionOre, which is headquartered in Toronto, wasn't immediately available for comment.
Shares in the Australian nickel miner, which has a market capitalization of A$ 3.85 billion, were put on a trading halt early Monday ahead of an announcement.
-By Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9671-4323; alex.wilson@ dowjones.com
-Edited by Graham Morgan"
BobWins
It may well be something other than an update on their shipping delay. Nickel prices on LME were down on Friday. RNO was also down slightly on normal volumes but LIM was up over 4% on higher than normal volume.
I guess we will find out when the ASX opens.
JFF7
Lionore placed in trading halt?
This posting comes from a reliable poster named nijiman on the Stockhouse board for LIM.
http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=14525618&t=0&all=0&TableID=0
"Hi Guys
Just logged in to my Aussie stockbroking site & noticed that a trading halt has been placed on Lionore the annoucement is as follows
"The securities of Lionore Mining International [ the Company ] will be paced in pre-open at the request of the Company, pending the release of an announcement by the Company. Unless the ASX decides otherwise, the securities will remain in pre-open until the earlier of the commencement of normal trading on Wednesday, 28 March 2007 or when the announcement is released to the market."
Well now what do you make of that. Personally im hoping for good news such as that of a takeover. Wonder if it could have anything to do with the Nickel that is due to be loaded starting on the 26 in Esperance hmmmmm there could be some bad news coming down the line from there as today is the 26 in Oz
If i find out any more will keep you posted"
Things could be interesting this week.
JFF7
Catching Copper on the rebound?
Who here is relooking at the copper stocks?
Copper inventories have been dropping and copper prices rising over the last couple of weeks. Some copper plays are looking very attractive again.
I like Quadra (QUA). It was hit hard for it's hedging and now the hedges are finshed (except for some book keeping) and copper is on the rise. Even if copper stayed put, there is a lot of unrealized value here.
Have fun
JFF7
Wade QID
Take a step back and look at your arguments for a second. You are starting to sound like you think you know better than the market on which way it should go. That's a dangerous way to think. The market is always right. It's like arguing with your wife. Even if you are right about the argument, you are wrong simply on the basis that you are arguing with your wife.
It's OK to do make decisions on a single stock based on fundamentals but when you start trading QID like a stock where the economics are the fundamentals you are using to justify your decisions, you are taking more risk than I think you realize.
The good thing is that QID is more liquid than a lot of value stocks you might have purchased so it will be easier to get out.
Just saying take a second and reflect on what you are doing.
JFF7
SMTX
- sold my SMTX today at an average price of 3.30.
- Just don't think it will go much higher right now. SMTX has a history that shows it often sells off after a short peak. I'll take my 20% return and move on.
Hope it keeps going for anyone holding.
JFF7
HBM and copper prices
This could bode well for HBM which also posted great results this morning.
Copper Rises in Shanghai on Reduced Stockpiles, Signs of Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aI57PQVNr0_k&refer=news
Nickel stocks
Lim.to reports tomorrow after the close. We'll see just how well nickel stocks do in the short term. My money is on them and LIM in particulr, doing very well.
JFF7
Cl001
Yes I'm watching and enjoying. You definitely have an eye for the change in trading patterns. Thanks for sharing.
JFF7
Cl001,
I.m already in so I have been watching closely.
I think it is a good sign that China's State Reserve Bureau is looking to restock base metals supplies like copper.
JFF7
CL001
and why is this the deal we have been waiting for?
JFF7
Octobargains,
you have so much hate and anger in you, how can you see anything clearly?
Try to see things from other peolpe's perspective a little more and maybe you'll be able to live along side them without wanting to throttle everyone.
JFF7
"I know your calendar is sometimes a little different than the rest of ours..."
Nice way of putting it Len. I have to remember that approach.
JFF7
Kipp
Could you email me a copy at justforfun777@gmail.com
Thanks.
JFF7
Nuts: Xstrada's offer
so they are only offering an increase of 2.4 % on average for the first year and much smaller after that?. On the face of it, that looks ridiculus but what does the bonus side look like? Is the bonus based on company profits? I heard of some sizable bonus's at another company. 20,000 - 30,000 dollars based on the company's earnings. That's pretty attractive on top of 25 dollars an hour.
In a boom or bust sector like mining, this sort of approach makes sense to me.
JFF7
Thanks Len,
the question on the percentage of hours on the computer gives me the best idea of what I was looking to find out.
Have fun!
JFF7
Quick question:
Has anyone here ever done a quick count of how many people that post to this board or just read the posts on a regular basis, that invest / trade fulltime vs. work fulltime at a regular day job and invest / trade in their spare time?
LEN: you the stats guy? Ever run those numbers?
Have fun!
JFF7
cl001:LIM
ahhh the best laid plans. I'd say the potential strike is already built into the price. Some risk (small) of significant downside (5-10%)if they suddenly manage to come to terms (I am thinking it is almost 80% certain they will strike) or maybe a little less downside if they agree to keep working at the negotiations.
I am thinking about sellling a significant amount prior to Feb 1. I may reinvest in another nickel stock (maybe one of the junior near term producers) or one of the near term zinc producers like ADA, if it gets back to 1.10-1.15 range at the time. It has good volume and lots of volatility with an upward trend.
Zinc should have one more run in it at least so there is more potential upside from where zinc stocks are trading now (a little beaten down) to where they can go.
Doing less buy and hold and more swing trading of metals as we move through 2007. I think this is a safer and maybe more profitable way to go than just holding.
Just my thoughts. Have fun!
JFF7.
What do people think of the market reaction to Cigar Lake announcement?
I sorta thought other stocks would have gone up on the news but most seemed to have gone down. Is that because a complete shut down was built into the prices?
JFF7
KIK, Good day for you. Congrats.
You don't happen to own WSHE do you? You have your own shell corp?
JFF7
CL001: RNO
Just an observation...ifthe court case is worth as much as your think then it is logical to assume that the company would want that included in the company's valuation. Propsective take over companies would not want to pay for something that does not exist yet and would not want to include it in the company's valuation.
I assume there are ways to include it in the valuation if the parties can agree on how much the potential should be discounted. However, any takeover is surely going to be postponed till the court case is resolved or at best it will be delayed by the outstanding court case.
I think you will have to put up with incompetent management for much longer. Also, although I agree with your point about BWR handled their delay well by issuing PRs, in general I don't think I would hold BWR's management up as a good example of competent management. They have had more than their share of dlays in dleivering on projected plans.
JFF7
CL001: UMN Canccord research note
I 'd like to read that reserarch note on UMN but I am not a member so I can't PM you my email address. Could you PM me your email address and then I can sned my request to you.
Thanks,
JFF7
NUTS:
"the smart money is buying uranium and nickel on this correction "
and maybe Zinc too.
The bleeding continues but at a slower pace now.
Looking for another Uranium play. I have UMN now but would like to also get a producer or near term producer with operations in stable territory (Austrailia, Canada).
JFF7
CL001 - Base metals
I attribute the last couple of days more to profit taking after a wonderful 2006 than the drop in the price of copper.
Based on the continuing fundamentals and merger activity, I am expecting the pain to stop soon (but who knows).
The only other thing that bothers me is that the short position on many of the miners has grwon quite a bit in the last 2 months. I usually believe the smart money does shorting.
JFF7
NUTs - Metals
I have picked up some HBM here on what is hopefully the bottom. I am attributing this drop to profit taking (it is just too broad across all metals and energy stocks). There may also be some effect from copper dropping and dragging other metals down.
Have fun,
JFF7
Wade : LIM.TO
Canadian markets are closed today. They open tomorrow.
JFF7
Kipp : Donald Coxe
I also like Donald Coxe's basic points and weekly phone calls. For the very reason you have put forth. He gives you a better picture (macro level) of what is going on in the investment world. I really believe in evaluating situations from the top down and from the broad to the narrow before making investment decisions. Listening to him provides a good perspective on the top and a broad global economy view as well.
The only warning I would mention is that it is not unusual to hear Donald say he was suprised at how something worked out or that he has changed his mind. It's refreshing to hear but also tells me that you should not take his predictions as gospel.
JFF7
The LME zinc stock level increases are isolated to the Singapore warehouse. Chinese export law coming into effect on Dec 14.
There is a theory on Stockhouse posted that the Chinese are pumping out as much as they can, while they can. Maybe the zinc LMS stock level increase till then and then start to drop again.
Just a theory.
JFF7
KIPP - Basic Points
Do you have acccess to his Basic POints publication as well?
JFF7
Sell off coming in base metals?
I don't know but that is what it felt like so I sold out a couple of days ago. I have already been up and down the base metals elevator once. I have some nice gains from this year of base metal investing that I would like to protect.
Back to the number one rule for me.... protetc your capital!
JFF7
Kitco up across the board
Yikes, I didnb't expect base metal prices to spring back that quickly.
Zinc hit 2.05 and back at 2.02 now.
Nickel up over 14 again
Copper positive as Cl001 says.
That was fast.
JFF7
BWR on sale.
Picked up 28000 shares of Breakwater at 1.70.
Seems like a goood deal if zinc prices move back to 2+ dollars in the next day or two.
JFF7
Kitco seems to be having problems or is it just me?
Zinc and NIckel prices seem to be recovering a bit now. Especially nickel.
The ride down is always faster than the right up ... and we had a fast ride up.
I don't think we have seen the peak of zinc prices but from here on it is going to be a rough ride with lots of volatilty. I am switching from a buy and hold strategy to more of a mixture of buy and hold with some trading on the dips and peaks.
JFF7
It depends on whether you think this is just a reaction to the metal prices that are down or if you think this is the market correwction that every one thinking was coming.
JFF7
Donald Coxe school?
JFF7