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If people assume that I would say it is probably because you previously posted something to the effect that you were going all in, betting the house, or something similar on calls up to and above $420.
According to the current price <$290 I would have to disagree. Sticking to your long thesis?
Who knows what Q3 accounting gimmickry might hold but things certainly are not looking up which the stock price reflects IMO
Devastating summmation of everything wrong with tesla
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4203477-tesla-reached-point-return
I'm sure it didn't inconvenience anyone. I mean what can you expect when you pay $60-120k for a "luxury" sedan?
This is a taste of what owners will get after BK. Probably a similar feeling of helplessness as being in the backseat of a Model 3 when the electrical fails (no escape).
Bullish eom
Premarket $308's. Ugly reaction to reality that Elon lied to pump up the stock price. More shareholder losses to be added to class action lawsuits.
Right so vastly below that of most other asset classes esp the NASDAQ.
"Returning profits to its shareholders" Well Tesla doesn't have any profits. The value creation in the equity is a function of Elon's promises.
Have you seen the activity reports from Freemont? Largely empty employee and contractor lots on Sun. Continuing reports of shifts being sent home early. Tesla has enormous overhead costs to cover and with Model 3 production below/around 3k/wk there is no way they can post a profit for the quarter.
Well I'm not labeling groups of people (longs, etc) as morons or anything else first of all. Secondly I'm responding with observations that are factual or based on facts.
To say that because a stock went from $17 to $300's as rationale for what will happen in the future is a stupid argument. Sure shorts that opened positions at $17 didn't fare well if they held or added to their positions on the run up. So what? Enron stock went up until it went back down in a big way.
I still have as yet to hear any rational argument for why shorts should cover or longs are correct to be long. Elon Musk doesn't walk on water. He's on the record now as being a liar and more than that lying to his **shareholders** and the public at large. People who bought & held based on his acid tripping tweet are underwater. People like our friend MWM that went "all in" on calls in the $400+ range (even above $420 because the short squeeze was going to project the stock to stratospheric heights) are taking or going to take an enormous financial hit. The people to blame are firstly Elon Musk and secondly the Tesla BOD.
I'm amazed at how adamant longs are about the future of Tesla despite the fact that the con the CEO just ran you is completely out in the open now.
By spring huh? You mean after nearly a trillion in debt comes due? After Jan 1st when, unless Tesla does a massive capital raise before, will bounce on their ABL cushion requirement?
I stopped reqding after your first sentence. How has it performed in the past four years?
When have analysts ever been correct about Tesla earnings? Tesla isn't making 6k/wk. Last qtr was an enormous loss.
BTW do you know what analyst consensus was for FY 2018?
Reason any show profit for Q3 is because that is what Elon promised which by the way he has been calling for since 2016.
Tesla doesn't have the capital needed to start up an entirely new production line. They gonna set up a new "production" tent and hand assemble these?
I haven't seen any explanation of how Tesla could start commercially producing these or any other vehicles.
Care to substantiate your claims with some sound logic or is it fueled by hope alone?
Bahahaha yeah OK. Since 2014 the stock has gone up what %? It has VASTLY underperformed. Good idea getting long, buy up all those calls that you can!
Sticking to the long thesis eh? Those $420 and above calls aren't going to be paying off. The much anticipated short burn of the century seems infinitely less likely now.
More news of Model 3 lines shutting down early despite not meeting production targets.
So shorts are still "idiots" or no?
Tesla not going private. Curious what you think now. Looks like your earlier assertion of shorts being idiots was, in hindsight, true about longs?
Per the latest from Navigant Research the Tesla self driving tech ranks *last*
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/report-ranks-tesla-last-for-automated-driving
TAT - News that MM intends to take company private with at least one third party investor. Now it is just speculation as to what price the BOD is willing to accept. The risk at this point is that the BOD accepts a takeunder bid of something like $C 1.50
We'll see. TAT actually has an option string although there hasn't been much volume there. Some speculation on the $2.50's which would have fantastic % gains if the takeout is in the upper $2's or above.
Saudi to invest in Tesla rival Lucid Motors
But "funding secured" right longs? I think it is going to be a ROUGH Monday for the long side.
https://m.uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusive-saudi-pif-in-talks-to-invest-in-aspiring-tesla-rival-lucid--sources-1289413?ampMode=1
Saudis investing $1B in Tesla competitor potentially taking a majority stake. Hilarious.
"Funding secured"
Have you read what former SEC chairs, former SEC lawyers, lawyers from Harvard & Columbia have all said about Elon's tweet?
They have all said that if there was no commitment for funding (eg term sheets, etc) that his tweet was committing securities fraud.
I am amazed by the fact that you seem to think that you know more than they do. I get the "nothing matters b/c they'll take it private" argument although I disagree with it. The defenses of Elon/Tesla are becoming more and more unhinged from reality as the story continues to worsen for longs.
There seems to be zero rationality on the long side, or at least in the arguments I've seen.
Tesla needs to raise billions of dollars just to cover their current cash shortfall. The legal reserve for the upcoming lawsuits certainly isn't going to help. They have nearly a billion in maturing debt they'll need cash for in early 2019. Their average accounts payable was 82 days at end of Q2, you think their vendors are going to keep lending out credit while not being paid on time as the story worsens for Tesla?
Yet despite all of that Tesla should be able to raise the billions they need immediately and on top that the billions more to start building trucks & semi's.
The only reason to think they'll do it is wishful thinking.
From securities fraud? Yes I do.
Those bumpers are the ones we know about b/c the owners posted on Reddit or Twitter w/ photos. Pretending build quality isn't a troublesome issue is like the Titanic captain saying "nah, just a small piece of ice that's floating there"
So yeah it is comical to think about Tesla producing trucks which would be put under considerably more adverse conditions than the vehicles Tesla has built to date.
With what capital will they make a pickup truck? Model 3 bumpers are falling off when driven in hard rain. Can't imagine what their trucks would be like.
"funding secured" - Musk lied. He "felt" like he had a commitment from the Saudis but didn't comment that it was at a particular valuation (eg $420).
1,000,000 vehicles by 2020. That estimate was based on the China factory producing vehicles. Construction won't even be completed by 2020 so there is zero chance of this.
The SolarCity business is melting down right along with Tesla.
$billions of damages will be claimed for Musk's tweets
Yeah maybe Tesla goes private. Certainly won't be at $420.
Evercore is competing for the advisor role for the Tesla special committee.
Also reports from Tesla manufacturing employees are that they've been sent home early and are barely making 5k/wk
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-workers-say-model-3-line-workers-sent-home-early-2018-8
Evercore also predicted 1.49 MW of SolarCity installations in 2018
Meanwhile TSLA trading just above $300.
Tripp voluntarily deleted his Twitter account at his lawyer's request
The cult of TSLA longs continue to ignore & discount the ever increasingly disturbing news coming in.
Stock is now down over $80 per share from the "funding secured" highs.
Sadly there are & will be such tremendous losses on both sides (long & short) whatever the class actions are able to squeeze from the company/Musk/BOD are going to be a pittance. Tesla is basically insolvent already so it's going to be hard to get blood from that stone.
If Musk does manage to hitch Tesla's wagon to SpaceX it would be a shame b/c it will just drag that company down with it.
Former Tesla engineer says the company silenced her entire team after they brought up safety and quality issues
Probably nothing though, right?
https://amp.businessinsider.com/tesla-silences-team-concerned-about-quality-issues-according-to-former-engineer-2018-7
In early August, a former Tesla process technician, Martin Tripp, counter-sued the company.
Tripp claims Tesla, which filed a lawsuit against him in June, falsely accused him of hacking into the company's operating system. He also alleges Tesla waged a smear campaign against him in order to silence his claims of poor part quality and waste at the company.
For another former Tesla employee, Cristina Balan, Tripp's story feels familiar.
Balan began working for Tesla as an engineer in 2010. In a series of interviews with Business Insider, Balan said she was pushed out of Tesla four years later.
Balan says this happened shortly after she and her seven-member interiors team shared concerns about poor part quality and waste they observed on the job with their superiors. Balan sued Tesla alleging discrimination, retaliation, and other issues. A multi-year arbitration ensued.
Business Insider reviewed emails, testimonies, text messages and other information from Balan's tangle with Tesla.
Here's how a once-celebrated Tesla engineer - who used to work on top secret projects for Tesla's top brass and whose initials were actually carved onto the battery of the Model S - says she wound up on the wrong side of the company.
It could be a cautionary tale for what Martin Tripp is about to face.
A Saturday venting session spirals: 'I feel like a sheep in a slaughterhouse'
In March 2014, Balan and her interiors team had brewing concerns about Tesla.
They worried about design flaws in the cars and felt their concerns were being overlooked or mishandled by managers.
According to internal emails and testimony from the arbitration, Balan's team had every intention of taking their issues straight to Tesla's CEO, Elon Musk.
Musk had, after all, told employees that Tesla was not a hierarchical company. They should feel free to approach him whenever they deemed it necessary.
Before she scheduled a meeting with Musk, though, Balan reached out to one of the heads of her department, Chris Porritt, who was Tesla's VP of Vehicle Engineering. Porritt asked to meet with Balan and the team about their concerns.
Porritt wants to meet Tesla
When does GS turn down fees and potential fees? Never
Sure but that wasn't my point. The point was that Elon keeps stating things that are materially false.
Say that it doesn't matter all you like. I believe having a CEO that doesn't lie to the public in order to "burn shorts" is important.
I don't think anyone is going to be too interested to invest in a going private transaction until the mounting lawsuits are resolved. The amount of losses on both the long and short side are going to be pretty enormous.
edit - Hrm, well at least they're in good company
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/11/03/962402/goldman-sachs-moves-vrx-to-not-rated
Goldman hasn't signed up yet either. Elon is developing nasty habit of tweeting things that are materially false. New class action filed today with longest yet period ending the 14th (to include people that realized losses from Musk's "updates" this week).
A recent tweet from Charles Gasparino on Twitter
Yes it doesn't make much sense on the face of it. Beyond that there is good reason to be uncertain that the largest fund shareholders would stay along for the trip (Baille Gifford, Fidelity, TRowe). And beyond that there have been plenty of experts quoted in articles now that have said Musk's intentions wouldn't be legal.
If you have over 2,000 shareholders as a private company you don't escape reporting requirements. Private shareholders would need to be accredited investors.
Also there was the report by a semi-famous rapper that spent this past weekend at Elon's house (she was there to record some music with Grimes) who reported that Elon was high on acid while tweeting.
IVFH - A bit surprising to see people posting that it was obvious b/c of USF or other reasons. We knew they had a tough comp that it would have taken a miracle to beat.
I was worried about core sales growth which did disappoint but it was made up for by iGourmet growth, which is a terrible change to their sales mix.
TSLA - Yeah I started shorting the hell out of it in the 370's. I did book a loss on my equity short after the 10-Q came out but managed to keep it from being too big. I've more than made up for it with the new shorts & weekly puts I put on last week (& rolled weekly puts for this week).
IVFH - Sales growth YoY attributed to iGourmet. Apparently the acquistition is growing nicely although this means the core biz growth fell off a cliff which is, unfortunately, where earnings come from.
IVFH in with a stinker of .01
Haven't read all the way through but gross margins fell considerably to offset a nice topline growth with quarterly sales near $11M
Edit - COGS increased 2.6% which was apparently not offset by passing pricing onto customers
Edit - Amortization for the qtr was about $200k or $100k greater than prior year. I'd consider this an add back for EPS as it relates to intangibles from the acquisition
PROM - Do you mean like $TSLA? EOM
Per the most bullish fund that owns TSLA. Hardly unbiased.
Have you thought your thesis through? Under what kind of mechanism do you think the Fed or Wall St. or taxpayers would be willing to accept the devastating losses that Tesla incurs or that it will incur when it finally goes BK?
The banks were bailed out (wrongly IMO) b/c the gov thought if they didn't the world economy would grind to a halt. Clearly that isn't the case with Tesla. It is also obvious that Trump isn't going to be interested in supporting such a thing.
Elon is a smart guy so maybe he can come up with something but barring a "this is where money is coming from" type or the yet unidentified 3rd party makes an announcement I can't think of what will help the stock price as time wears on.
Clearly the BOD has nothing further to say. They're going to meet w/ advisors next week. They've, per reporting, asked Elon to recuse himself from the process.
I'm interested to hear ideas of what Elon could do to pull out of this tailspin.
I'll just add once again. There has been no filing yet from Tesla. Stuart Meissner (lawyer representing Tripp and whose law firm won a big suit against Monsanto) posted on twitter that people w/ "millions in losses" are coming to him for help with legal recourse against Tesla/Elon
Edit - I rolled my weekly 360 puts into 8/17 350's
Consider what the BOD statement means. It means they weren't informed by Musk about any financing being secured. So either A) Musk did secure financing but did it without the BOD's knowledge or B) Musk didn't secure financing and tweeted what he did without the BOD's knowledge or approval (oh & also the Musk securities fraud thing).
So the story just keeps getting worse. The complete lack of oversight by the BOD is astonishing and it is playing out right in front of our eyes.
The wall st banks being brought in to advise the BOD on potential go private transactions will it seems undoubtedly have access to updated financials & company #'s. They'll see the latest cash balances and either have or be able to infer the latest production & cost figures (we're halfway through Q3 after all). Anyone think that is good for Tesla? I don't. Maybe they'll stay tight lipped but somehow I doubt it.
Anyone take a look at the funds that own Tesla like T.Rowe, Fidelity, Baille Gifford, etc? Do those specific funds invest in illiquid private companies? If they do are they limited by what they can invest in them (say 10% of the fund's assets, ahem ahem)? What happens to the $$ value of debt financing required if you don't assume these funds go "all in" on transferring their ownership to a private co (ignoring their desire or ability to do so)?
The statement by the BOD yesterday (or reporting on it) is just the board trying to cover themselves. Despite this and amazingly there is STILL no 8-K and no 13E-3. With each passing day Musk & the BOD are exposed to greater and greater civil liabilities and depending on the truthiness of Musk statements he personally is exposed to criminal prosecution.
But yeah I'm sure Softbank, the Saudis, whoever is probably willing to ignore all of that along with the pending lawsuits (Tripp, SolarCity) which make plausible, specific, and incredibly troubling allegations about the company and Elon Musk specifically.
EDIT - If you (reader) are not on Twitter following the Tesla saga you don't know what you're missing. See the excellent thread below for an example
https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/status/1027881750360457218
There will be more news like that. There are plenty of legal firms out there that put out PR's like this to chum the water and see if investors come in.
Tesla will need to increase their legal reserve for Q3