Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Uh yeah, when they violate someone's rights. That's very obviously not the case here. And it is a Federal enforcement agency.
Did you click the link I included in my previous post?
OT - You may find this book interesting
Tom Woods (author) is a Harvard & Columbia educated History PhD and a leader in the modern libertarian (small 'l') community. He is also Catholic.
The Church and the Market: A Catholic Defense of the Free Economy (Studies in Ethics and Economics)
https://www.amazon.com/Church-Market-Catholic-Defense-Economics/dp/0739187996/ref=sr_tc_2_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1538160129&sr=8-2-ent
Think about what you're asking. Can you sue the police for charging you with a crime because it hurt your reputation, you lost your job as a result, wife left you, etc? If you could prove it was done maliciously with no reasonable belief that you committed the crime, MAYBE. Still doubtful you'd win. The Government defends itself to the nth degree even when it is OBVIOUSLY in the wrong (like this egregious example - https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-24/irs-agent-indulges-bizarre-fetish-taxpayers-home).
What Musk did is textbook fraud. Not just me saying it. Former SEC attorneys, former SEC chairman, securities lawyers, and legal experts from the likes of Cambridge etc have all said so.
Well no I don't believe that is true. Are you speaking solely about the posters on the iHub TSLA board?
The thing is I have no animus towards people making money on the long side. What I have a problem with is people making statements like "the SEC has a weak case" without citing any information or acting like shorts are the ones that are in a sling when the stock is trading down 13%. It is dishonest at best.
Also, it is impossible to "play the swing" on news like the SEC lawsuit. No one knew it was coming out. If someone happened to sell their long position just before the news came out that is luck, not skill. The same is true for someone initiating a short just before the news, however I think there is far more rationale for a short vs a long position.
What is hilarious is how you longs are so bold. You realize the stock is down a bunch, right?
SEC has a Success Rate of 94.7% on Market Manipulation Cases - Vertical Group's Johnson
Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson said the SEC has a success rate of 94.7% on market manipulation cases. This suggests Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)/Elon Musk is betting they'll be in the 5.3%. The analyst reiterated a Sell rating.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Tesla+(TSLA):+SEC+has+a+Success+Rate+of+94.7%25+on+Market+Manipulation+Cases+-+Vertical+Groups+Johnson/14654742.html
Note - The lawyer retained by Musk is famous for representing Mark Cuban in his defense against insider trading enforcement by SEC. The SEC win rate in insider trading cases is around 57%. While maybe Musk gets hit with insider trading (who knows) the statistics are definitely not in his favor with the manipulation fraud charges
Tesla legal woes summary
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/28/sec-fraud-charges-arent-the-only-legal-woes-tesla-ceo-elon-musk-faces.html?__source=twitter%7Ctech
The SEC lawsuit against Elon Musk for alleged fraud isn't the only legal action against the Tesla CEO for his Aug. 7 take-private tweet.
The Justice Department is also investigating the matter, in which Musk claimed to have "funding secured" to take Tesla private at $420 a share.
The Securities and Exchange Commission filed its suit on Thursday.
The new charges and investigation followed a proposed class-action lawsuit led by Andrew Left of Citron Research, a short seller, who says Tesla and Musk manipulated the stock price by issuing materially false and misleading information in tweets.
Here are some of the investigations, complaints and suits that could most affect Tesla:
NHTSA and NTSB regularly investigate crashes involving Tesla vehicles and the use of "Autopilot" features.
OSHA has multiple investigations looking into worker safety and injuries at Tesla factories.
In a lawsuit, former Tesla sales manager Adam Williams claims the company demoted then fired him after he complained they sold used cars to customers without disclosing those cars were previously lemons.
A former Tesla technician, Martin Tripp, filed a whistleblower complaint to the SEC claiming Tesla misrepresented its rate of vehicle and battery production and used flawed materials in its car batteries. Separately, Tesla fired and then sued Tripp on charges of leaking company data to the media and engaging in sabotage. Tripp has countersued the company for defamation.
A former Tesla security employee, Karl Hansen, filed a separate whistleblower complaint to the SEC claiming Tesla covered up theft and narcotics trafficking reported by employees at its battery plant in Sparks, Nevada.
A former employee, Marcus Vaughn, is pursuing a class-action lawsuit against Tesla in California alleging that the company ignored black employees' reports of rampant racism. A Tesla attempt to force this case into arbitration was denied in June.
The National Labor Relations Board filed a complaint in August accusing Musk of violating labor laws with a tweet on May 20 that employees wouldn't have stock options if they formed a union.
Tesla-owned SolarCity is the subject of multiple and as yet undisclosed SEC probes discovered by Probes Reporter, a firm that publishes FOIA research for investors.
In addition, Musk is being sued by expert spelunker Verne Unsworth, whom Musk claimed without evidence was a pedophile and child rapist. Musk lobbed those dramatic accusations at Unsworth after the cave diver questioned the Musk's attempts to aid in the rescue of a Thai boys soccer team. Unsworth was part of the successful rescue effort and was critical of Musk's approach.
Tesla production goal met - Electrek 51k Model 3's produced for quarter
News headline sounds good....except that this comes out to 3,900 per week. What happened to the 5k/wk or higher goal for Model 3's?
TSLA - My positions are long term puts (various 2019 $100 strikes) which I have trimmed and added to at times and from time to time I make long/short equity positions. I day traded TSLA on the long side a couple days ago and currently I have a short equity position.
As for downside, I think it has further to go. The stock dropped further on the video of Elon smoking of dope on the Joe Rogan show.
Martha Stewart
My understanding of what happened in her case
She owned shares in a Pharmaceutical company
The pharma company had very bad results of a drug study coming out
The pharma company CEO started offloading shares before the bad news (illegally)
Martha's broker told her the CEO was selling a bunch of shares
Martha told broker to sell her position
Somehow the SEC made a case that what she did was illegal. As you wrote the Elon fiasco is entirely different in pretty much every respect.
TSLA - "Annihilation Secured"
The consensus seems to be that in addition to potential monetary fines the most likely outcome will be Musk being barred from being an officer or director of a public company. I have a hard time believing that Elon would take a backseat to someone else so it would be interesting to see what he does if this happens. I think he'd rather take the whole company down or rather that he will do so rather than be pushed out.
The potentially bigger issue IMO is that this makes the lawsuits & class actions against Elon & Tesla all the more likely to win and have devastating effects on both Elon & Tesla given the enormous amount of losses to both longs & shorts. Some longs are arguing that this is good b/c Tesla would do better under different leadership. This argument ignores the crippling lawsuits coming for Tesla (which, by the way, I think is already near insolvency). Tesla BOD didn't execute their fiduciary duty to shareholders and didn't provide oversight & governance. The company is firmly on the hook as well.
The other death knell will be the inability of Tesla to raise capital until this issue with the SEC is resolved. I don't think anyone really believes the company can survive without additional capital. Chances have increased dramatically of a surprise Chapter 11 announcement any day going forward to allow the company to obtain debtor in possession financing.
I think we are aware of all the facts in the case so I don't think there is something we're missing here. It is a slam dunk case and I don't believe the SEC would be taking this action if they didn't believe they'll win.
People arguing that the SEC has a "weak" case are, to use MWM's choice descriptor, "morons". There is a long list of former SEC attorneys, former SEC chairmen, expert legal/securities professors from prestigious colleges, etc who are on the record as saying that if funding was not secured that Elon committed fraud. People focus on "funding secured" tweet but Elon put the nails in his coffin by doubling & tripling down. He also tweeted terms that existing shareholders could choose to hold shares into private entity (which isn't legally feasible and no terms existed between Musk & potential acquirer) AND that the only thing required to get the deal done was a shareholder vote (after tweeting that shareholder support was confirmed). If longs had a long list of accomplished professionals behind them (not fund managers with long positions) saying the SEC has a "weak case" than I would believe it. Nothing but faith & hope on the long side.
TSLA - "Annihilation Secured"
The consensus seems to be that in addition to potential monetary fines the most likely outcome will be Musk being barred from being an officer or director of a public company. I have a hard time believing that Elon would take a backseat to someone else so it would be interesting to see what he does if this happens. I think he'd rather take the whole company down or rather that he will do so rather than be pushed out.
The potentially bigger issue IMO is that this makes the lawsuits & class actions against Elon & Tesla all the more likely to win and have devastating effects on both Elon & Tesla given the enormous amount of losses to both longs & shorts. Tesla BOD didn't execute their fiduciary duty to shareholders and didn't provide oversight & governance. Some longs are arguing that this is good b/c Tesla would do better under different leadership. This argument ignores the crippling lawsuits coming for Tesla (which, by the way, I think is already near insolvency).
I think we are aware of all the facts in the case so I don't think there is something we're missing here. It is a slam dunk case and I don't believe the SEC would be taking this action if they didn't believe they'll win.
PS PS - The other death knell will be the inability of Tesla to raise capital until this issue with the SEC is resolved. I don't think anyone really believes the company can survive without additional capital. Chances have increased dramatically of a surprise Chapter 11 announcement any day going forward to allow the company to obtain debtor in possession financing.
Question - CVIA 2020 options are adjusted where 1 contract = 20 shares.
Despite that today the $5 strike 2020 calls were priced at 50 cents ($2.50 for 100 shares). The underlying is trading in the mid $10's. The company is a silica sand & aggregates company (so benefits from oil & gas fracking in the US).
Is there any good reason why LEAPs like this would trade in backwardation to the underlying? It isn't sentiment and the volume/open interest is minor.
TIA!
NIO vs TSLA - I'd like to believe that money is rotating out of Tesla and into Nio but really if people like them both than they'll own them both. The money that moves the stocks isn't small retail folks and the institutions have plenty of money to own both if that's what they want to do.
IVFH - I've been away for awhile but just noticed that IVFH has staged a remarkable rally seemingly based on the filing indicating they are getting serious about having independent directors. Sure is nice to see although my position is still pretty far from breakeven.
VLE.TO/PNWRF - Fluid recovery from Yam
I don't subscribe to IV so posting my ? here to see what you think.
I get that salinity of water produced indicates whether it is the slick water pumped into well or formation water. Given that the water put down hole was there for around 9 months I would have to believe it would gain whatever salinity it could while sitting there. Water dissolves minerals very effectively and at the high temp of the formation I would imagine that minerals would dissolve into the water doubly so. Given the long duration of the water sitting in the well seems to me that it would be difficult to determine effectively whether it is formation water coming up or not.
I imagine we'll find out conclusively with the IP30
Thoughts on who benefits from the cheap pricing? Utilities or companies that have a high utilization of NGAS in COGS?
Tesla hack. Someone, maybe it was you, posted something about Tesla hacking vulnerability several days ago. Well timed
The bounce had already largely happened. You and everyone else could have been loading up longs in the 260 area, it was there in the morning and towards the close. You apparently didn't but decided to make a 20/20 hindsight mental trade saying it is obvious and easy money that it will bounce AFTER the stock gapped way up. Then you presume to tell me how I should be trading (eg covering my short).
Give it a break.
If I assert that the stock will be $x price in a week, month, etc I give you permission to suggest that I take a big position to back up that assertion. That isn't being an a-hole, it is challenging someone to put their money where their mouth is (or fingers in this case).
Well I guess but lots of vehicles nowadays have hackable components. Is there info suggesting Teslas are more hackable than other vehicles? That would be interesting (and not altogether surprising) if true
Easy to say something was a good buy and sell in hindsight. Pretty worthless to do so since we can always look backward and say if I bought or sold at x and y etc etc. Wouldn't be looking too great today.
I am short and remain so. Since I have posted several times now that I haven't covered you should be able to figure out for yourself where I think the stock is headed.
That issue is fixed per the link you posted
Your responses are confusing. I asked YOU what you thought of the weekly calls today because you said you were interested in them on Monday.
Edit - You just wrote that I was giving a guy a hard time for buying weekly calls. Dude, no one told me they bought weekly 300 calls. There is no such post. Please re-read whatever you think you have an issue with because I think you are confused
"Hard time"? What are you talking about? I suggested buying them and you responded something to the effect of you wished that you had been online to do so.
No one responded to me that they had bought $300 weekly calls. Maybe you have me confused with someone else.
You were lamenting not buying any because you were busy with your domestic duties on Monday. The stock is down today so it is perfectly reasonable to ask whether you think they look attractive.
Thanks for the best wishes with my short position. My equity short has a basis around 370 and I added largely to my LEAP puts up there too so doing really well so far!
Those $300 calls looking attractive to you? Time to load up?
Curious post. Sure Tesla is a goldmine if you consistently profit from its volatility. If you are just long your 4yr return is negative.
Why not go big and buy $100k of weekly $300 calls then? You'd make a huge return. Easy money, right?
TSLA - Wait a second, I thought the SEC wouldn't take action against a CEO if it would be bad for shareholders??? That is what Tesla longs and Bloomberg news told me! Oh no....
Around $200 Elon has to start pledging more TSLA shares for his nearly $1bn loan that has TSLA shares posted as collateral. Of course he has more to pledge but at some point things will become tenuous enough that smart money could force a margin call at which point the stock will start circling the drain hard with shorts (and longs) trying to front run liquidation of the collateral.
This may or may not happen, it depends on how fast the stock legs down. It is entirely possible that this is how the story ends though.
Sitting at the top of what? Claiming victory as a long when the stock is at 260 and maybe bounces to maybe 280 is laughable. Sure it can bounce but doesn't mean the stock isn't going to zero long term. It bounced at 280 to upper 280's and then sold back off. Longs are selling, it isn't just short sellers anymore.
C'mon really? Solar City is not coming to the rescue
I own long dated puts and I'm short equity from $370. I am not tempted to cover at this point. If the stock gets a pop from Q3 I will be adding to my short position.
By the way, back in 2013 broadly speaking there was still major popular support for Tesla & Elon Musk. Look at the headlines now. There has been a sea change and it matters. Even Jim Cramer is now saying that Elon is an idiot savant, the CAO departure is a major red flag, the company is in a "tenuous" situation.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/09/07/tesla-is-in-a-tenuous-situation-now-says-jim-cramer.html
It is easy being long and ignoring problems when everyone is cheering for Elon. When popular support in the financial media starts going the opposite direction I would argue that is something to pay attention to. I contend that this is not a momentary issue but that we are now witnessing the train wreck coming to an end. I've been saying that Tesla is at an inflection point since late last year and I believe that I am correct (and I have money riding based on that belief).
Just because the stock didn't go down when you were a bear before doesn't mean you were wrong to be bearish (in opinion) of the company. It just means your timing wasn't right with having a short bias for your trades. Being a short means you have to have a correct theory and you have to have correct timing. Sometimes you can be correct in your theory but well ahead of when the coming implosion happens.
Just because Elon & Tesla have managed to defy the financial laws of gravity (during a time of central bank money printing) doesn't mean that he will continue to do so ad infinitum.
edit - On the front of Yahoo Finance site are at least two articles/videos about Tesla, both negative. One is titled "Tesla needs to get Elon Musk some help"
Let's remember to come back to this when the Q3 13-F's are filed.
Just as a reminder total institutional ownership of TSLA declined by almost 10% in Q2 from Q1 and hedge fund ownership declined by about 18.5% over the same period.
That's liquidation.
If I am wrong and TSLA is going to $2,000 than we should see a reversal in the 13-F #'s for Q3.
The stock has sold off considerably from several weeks ago. What does that tell you? Based on the borrow rate at IB and available shares I'm inclined to think there are major shareholders selling.
That lady who called for TSLA $2k isn't a major shareholder. I can find you someone that worked at NASA that says they have evidence of extraterrestrials but that doesn't mean it is true. She is of the same ilk as Gerber Kawasaki, and Loop Capital. They definitely are part of the cult but they don't manage billions of dollars. Elon is on the record as having lied how many times now? Lied about being provided specs for the child submarine, lied about funding, VW investment, Saudi wanting to take TSLA private, etc. Why would you think support isn't eroding?
I'm citing facts and using logic. You're making arguments based on hope and faith. There is a distinct difference. You said that in the past you were a Tesla bear. You said then that Musk was going to take the company private and that none of the bear arguments would matter because of it. Turned out Elon lied egregiously and multiple times (funding secured, shareholder support confirmed, VW was going to buy a big stake, etc etc etc), lawsuits are piling up, Tesla hasn't secured new funding & is running incredibly short on cash, vehicle defects don't appear to be improving, CAO resigns after less than a month on job, I could go on and on and you somehow are still bullish on the stock (after continuing to be so since the upper $300's).
TSLA - The fact that the cars run on a bunch of laptop batteries wired together is the very least of the issues with the company.
The Chief Accounting Officer just resigned after less than a month at the job. I mean, come on! No one knows exactly why he's leaving but the most likely options that come to mind are terrible indicators for the company.
This is the meltdown. Elon knew what he was doing going on a videotaped podcast and smoking a joint. His behavior is going to become more and more erratic as the company implodes. Elon is like Nero playing away while Rome burns.
So your argument is that because the cult thinks Elon's shit does't stink that the stock is going to go up?
I don't believe Fidelity, T. Rowe, Baille Gifford fund managers are part of Elon's cult. They may have been tempted but to argue that professional money managers, in general, see this as a non-issue or as a positive is fooling yourself IMO.
The Tesla fanboy cult club has hardly anything to do with the forward trajectory of the company or the stock price at this point. Tesla 2025 bonds are now trading at 82/83 cents on the dollar. If Tesla does a capital raise the offering would *certainly* be much lower now that the stock is trading in the $250/260 range.
Who do you think that has a fiduciary responsibility to their investors would be buying Tesla at this point? The Chief Accounting Officer just resigned less than a month after taking the job! New lawsuits are being filed every week (two yesterday with one from infamous Citron founder Andrew Left).
Out of curiosity when did it become apparent to you? When Elon's blog post came out at midnight some Friday ago? You may have posted but if so I missed it.