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Agreed, no shareholder can be completely content with sales when they own stock... Bob made a fantastic hire with John and I have met him personally 3 times. He is very professional, focused and they both want the big mil deals (which they will likely get). Be patient and we will likely be rewarded...
Sit tight fish. With all the hard work done these past 2 years (move, V3, new hires, etc), they should really show some meaningful EPS on the police / international front alone. Sales will be lumpy with any large ticket items so quarterly doesn't matter that much. I believe they are progressing nicely and a year over year look means more. If (when) they land a nice mil deal with the infrastructure already in place, it will drop a meaningful amount to the bottom line... I've been in this stock since the Dutchess days (although a small position back then) and can't ignore the progress they have made. They have never been better positioned to capitalize on the opportunities in front of them... I'd say the next 12-18 months will paint a new picture...
Richard Brake, he runs the Orlando office. Sharp guy and he's been in the industry for quite a while.
Not sure who gave you that info but the Orlando office is open. I stopped by about 3-4 weeks ago and met with Richard for a bit. Nothing significant to report but the office IS 100% open.
I attended IT/SEC Tuesday and Wednesday this week in Orlando. I took a few pics (of the Virtra mag and IVAS headset) but can't figure out how to post them on IHUB... I never had a chance to try the IVAS headset as they constantly had people waiting in line. If anyone knows and wants to send me their email, I'll forward them to post.
Tuesday was slammed, I stopped by the booth 4-5 times Tuesday and Bob and John were in non-stop in demo's and meeting with people so I didn't have a chance to talk to either. On Wednesday I had a few minutes with Bob, John, Richard, Jason, Ryan and Alanna (new CFO). They are as fired up as any group can be and I'm more convinced than ever they are on the right track. Best of all, I went to both the Army PEOSTRI booths and they had Virtra recoil kits and mags on display along with the IVAS headsets! I asked a guy from PEO his opinion and he said, Virtra's recoil kits "are far superior"! For whatever thats worth, I left there feeling more confident in their future than in the 10+ years I've owned the stock.
I'm not sure you can say they "fail to fix the problem"... I've owned some stock since the Dutchess days although a much smaller position then than today. I've added a bunch in the last 2 years... They have made good progress and sales are accelerating. The revenue for the last 4 years were"
2018 - 18M
2019 - 18.7M
2020 - 19M
2021 - 24.4M
In Q3 they booked 13.5M in federal bookings "only" not counting police, international, military so it will be a record quarter and they are just now tapping the Mil market. If you read between the lines (bigger building, hiring, new location, new co-CEO, tech, etc) its not hard to tell they are ramping up for much more.
Another factor is the STEP program. How many full priced sales have they missed in order to lease equipment at a fraction of the annual cost to make them more affordable and obtain reoccurring revenue which is much more valuable longterm?
As far as I can tell, things have never looked better. One or two large Mil deals will really move the needle. They have great products and we are in a shit time of the market for small cap stocks so they may have some headwinds for a while. If I had to guess, we will be much higher in 12 months...
I went to the open house in Orlando yesterday and was beyond impressed. Met Ferris, Givens, Mulcahy and Brake (Orlando guy). Spend a while taking ballistics with Brake and they obviously have a great product and have put a lot of effort into the software. You can add wind / rain, etc into the scenarios and the bullets movement replicates the conditions. Spoke with Givens for a bit and he was very intelligent, confident and is very focused on driving this company forward. He was a fantastic hire and I am looking forward to seeing what materializes. It sounds like Virtra is very aligned with a lot of military requirements / programs so it could get interesting in the near future...
I got to demo the V300 and ST Pro with a reporter from the Orlando Business Journal who was equally impressed. I assume an article will follow... The realism, quality and sound effects were way beyond what I anticipated as I've only seen videos online / Youtube which do not do them justice.
They had numerous weapons there for demo (handguns, fully and semi Ar's, SAW, 50 cal, taser, spray, etc. The recoil is very realistic and I can't see how they could improve on what they have already built. The mags refill in about 2 seconds with 1 step.
They also had a pair of goggles (made by others) that had the current headset technology loaded and it looked very cartoonish. At about halfway thru the scenario, Alex (I think that was his name) told me to turn around and I would see their new V3 technology they imbedded and it was incredible! It looks as real as it can get and captures eye movement, facial expressions, breathing, etc. Once an agency demo's that product, I can't imagine them going with anything else (except for budgetary reasons).
It was great to see and try everything first hand and it really enforced that they have great products and are committed to being the best in this space.
Lets see what the next 12 months bring...
Looks like we have a record quarter in Q3 bookings by far. From what I've found its up to about 13.5M not including international (excluding Canada), military / commercial and the police market (which is normally steady). Maybe 17-18M overall??
Date Amount Client
7/8/22 $42,500 DOS
7/13/22 $42,649 Veterans Affairs
7/18/22 $700,000 FLETC
8/11/22 $520,954 DOS
8/11/22 $263,946 DOS
8/18/22 $900,000 Canada
8/26/22 $144,017 USDA
8/26/22 $139,088 Secret Service
8/31/22 $4,743,075 CBP
8/31/22 $4,257,600 IRS (gotta love this one)
9/1/22 $19,799 BLM
9/7/22 $150,030 NPS
9/14/22 $391,181 CBP
9/18/22 $95,684 CBP
9/19/22 $13,011 Veterans Affairs
9/23/22 $790,000 CBP
9/23/22 $72,275 CBP
9/27/22 $189,620 ATF
Total $13,475,429
Today was obviously not what any of us were hoping for however, 8.3M in bookings in Q3 makes 19.3M in bookings for last 2 quarters. Pretty solid growth without IVAS... Also noted, with IVAS delayed, they are still trying to fill another 11 positions. Likely many other good things to come.
Looks like the estimated quantity over 3 years is 150 sims and 560 recoil kits. From one of the Q/A pages.
Bidder Questions/Answers:
1. Q:
Is there a rough estimated quantity on the amount of weapon kits needed?
A: Approximately 560 (pistols and carbine) over the first 3 years. No minimum order guaranteed.
9. Q:What will be the minimum number of portable or fixed systems that may be required upon award.
A: Approximately 150 between fixed and portable. No minimum order guaranteed.
Could be a 20M+ deal not including all the extras...
Here is a previous delivery to Canada for 12 sims from 2015.
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/tender-notice/PW-QF-106-25588
Just ran across this list of new scenarios they are working on..
https://www.backstage.com/casting/virtra-law-enforcement-training-project-456942/
Thanks for sharing. Seems reasonably written and will be interesting to see what backlog and inventory is at year end. I'm sure non-US deliveries have been challenging and Canada is currently a mess so hopefully bookings paint a picture. This may take another year to play out but its not hard to anticipate whats coming...
Here is a Q4 win on 10/26/21 for 500k...
https://coralgables.legistar.com/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=5188819&GUID=72EBE46B-42A3-4267-86D6-CA6D0C727B30
With a current (diluted) EV of approx 55M, TTM bookings of 30M and TTM revenue of 22.6M, what are you stressing about??? They have been performing well this past year with or without IVAS. Many good potential catalyst in the pipeline and are you in for a quick bump and sell or do you believe they have a solid product with potential for steady growth from here? These price levels provide a chance to add at a very reasonable valuation if you believe the product is solid and they are relevant going forward. If not, why not sell and relieve your stress?
With an EV value of approx 65M, you should be in good shape. Think they will post 7M+ as well as a growth in backlog. The only variable is how many orders went to STEP vs outright sales... In the short term STEP is a negative but overall a positive so we'll see. This may be another 2-3 years out to see it fully play out.
A lot of positives with this one, the only negative is a small float and many small owners that flip flop in and out based on news / numbers...
Thanks.
If they add 18 more (a few could be replacements) they should end up with 133-136 employees in the near future. Thats a pretty solid increase (appox 45%) from 93 at the start of the year. They are obviously budgeting for a pretty large increase in work.
Their website shows 11 open positions so either the site is not updated or a few of them (installer, CNC, etc) could be for multiple positions.
When he answered on current headcount, he said 118 with either 8 or 18 positions open. Do you know which one he said?
Wow, that was a quick hold...
How much time and effort would you put into a volunteer board seat if your efforts didn't financially benefit you at all verses if you had a financial stake in the success of the company? Not that we have bad board members, just think it would be more productive if they all had skin in the game like a normal company... The COO is the concerning one. If you are the number 2 person in a public company (and have been for years) and choose to sell any shares you get verses holding them, whats that say?
The only disturbing part of this whole thing is outside of Ferris, no insider nor the board own any meaningful shares... I can't imagine a scenario where I'd be in a managerial position (or on the board) of a company and not pile into the shares if I thought they were on the right track. Technically you can't require them to buy or hold shares they are issued, but if my key employees didn't buy stock or at a minimum at least hold the shares or exercise and keep the stock options they were issued, I'd have a problem with that.
I'm hopeful the new shareholders (from the PPM) at some point will push to upgrade the management team and or board and get more people in place that are aligned with shareholders.
If you want to move to the next level which Bob seems to want, you need to have the right foundation in place to build on which it doesn't seem we have... How in the world does a COO in place for many years, not own any shares? Disturbing...
Yeah man, good find! Hopefully that opens the door to many other Mil opportunities going forward... You would think if they have the system, they would add other training options available to it as well.
Here is a contract from September 2020 that is for the Army thru a prime contractor. Not a huge one but confirms they have opened that door...
AirTronic USA LLC,* Spring Branch, Texas, was awarded a $13,322,593 firm-fixed-price contract for Precision Shoulder-fired Rocket Launchers, VirTra 100 shooting simulators, installation and training. Bids were solicited via the internet with one received. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of Sept. 23, 2025. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Newark, New Jersey, is the contracting activity (W15QKN-20-D-0045).
https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Contracts/Contract/Article/2358917/
My initial take was maybe they had an initial PO for X number of units to fill and no definitive timeline on potential follow on orders which may or may not come. Guess we will find out soon enough. They have a lot of new hires in the pipeline either way...
Sharp,
Here are a few of the STEP agreements. Some are a year old but should run for 5 years then hopefully renew / upgrade. The margins appear solid on these, just need to get more out there... With the GA grants, we could see many more coming. Would be nice if numerous States follow their lead. Thanks for all the info you have shared in your posts. Seems like you have done plenty of digging and seems like we have the same conclusion on this, just a matter of waiting it out...
https://www.stcharlesil.gov/sites/default/files/event/packet-items/6.a_25.pdf
https://www.monroeohio.org/DocumentCenter/View/1141/Resolution-Number-33-2020-PDF
https://westmont.illinois.gov/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/Agenda/_10222020-1632?packet=true
https://co.delaware.oh.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/09_03_2020.pdf
https://static.spokanecity.org/documents/bcc/committees/public-safety-and-community-health/agendas/2020/08/psch-agenda-2020-08-03.pdf
Sharp, you seem pretty well versed on Virtra, what is your history with the company or have you just done a bunch of solo research? I agree with your last post with SA, the only thing lacking is a little more exposure. Out of all my holdings, this is the one that seems to be reasonable priced based on current projections (not counting a large deal that seems very likely). Too many indicators point to a big ramp up in work... I've done as much online searching as I can and have found a bunch of STEP agreements that have been signed (and not pr'd) in the last year or two. Not overly sexy in the short term but reoccurring revenue is the name of the game. I found a job posting that has expired (or been filled) for a second shift "inspector" that was temporary for 3 months. Based on that it seems they may have one large order now that may or may not be ongoing.
Thoughts...
Inspector - 2nd Shift | Full-time, Temporary @ 3 months
VirTra
Tempe, AZ (+1 other)
Apply on ZipRecruiter
Apply on HypjobsApply on JobilizeApply on Learn4GoodApply on Tempe, AZ - GeeboApply on Employment Opportunities For West Coast Job Seekers
10 days agoFull-timeNo degree mentioned
Job Description
TEMPORARY POSITION ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 3 MONTHS IN DURATION.
NON-EXEMPT/REGULAR/FULL TIME/TEMPORARY POSITION
POSITION SUMMARY:
Responsible for inspection of all incoming products as well as internally manufactured products. Must demonstrate proficiency using MicroVu (multisensor), hand tools, and plate for part inspection. Assist on the shop floor with CNC machining of parts, in-process inspection, and shipping/receiving.
Essential Functions:
• Develop, implement and maintain quality requirements and standards (ISO 9001:2015) for the development and manufacture of products.
• Promote and execute quality standards, inspection processes, test methodology, quality plans, documents and reports.
• Participate in internal quality audits
• Interface with supplier quality representatives concerning problems with quality assurance and assure that effective corrective action is implemented
• Serve as primary quality assurance for all manufacturing issues pertaining to the quality of the product from incoming inspection to final inspection of products.
• Maintain all quality records and documentation for manufacturing facility in accordance with the quality manual and customer specific requirements.
• Maintain calibration records for mechanical and electrical test equipment within the department
• Inspect products using coordinate measuring machine, vision, gauges, scales, oscilloscope prior to shipment
• Create, document and implement inspection criteria and procedures
• Analyze drawing, sketches, and design data of part to determine dimension and configuration of cuts, selection of cutting tools, and machine speed and feed rates, according to knowledge of machine shop processes, part specifications, and machine capabilities.
• Stops machine to change cutting tools and setup according to required machining sequence or to measure parts for conformance to blueprint specifications, using precision measuring instruments.
• Ability to program Mastercam and set up to 5-axis milling a plus.
• Ability to program Mastercam and set up CNC lathe a plus.
• Work towards our goals of 100% On-Time Delivery and 100% Quality.
• Communicates with co-workers and supervisor to receive instructions and coordinate general work activities.
• Clean-up of work area, and other areas of the facility as asked adhering to 5S principles.
• May be asked to assist in other plant functions under direct supervision of the shop team lead.
• Performs other duties as assigned or needed to better a department or company.
Education and Experience:
• Minimum of 10-years working experience in a machine shop AND minimum of 2-years inspecting parts using vision and touch probe
• (Working experience) Must include quality control and machining experience in machine shop environment
• Working knowledge of ISO 9001:2015
• Knowledge of QC Calc, Excel and Epicor preferred
• Proficient with Windows and Microsoft Office programs (Excel, Word, PowerPoint, Visio, etc.)
• History of progressive responsibility a plus
Physical Demands:
• Stand, walk, push, pull, reach overhead, and bend to the floor
• Exert 20 to 50 pounds of force occasionally, and/or
• Exert 10 to 25 pounds of force frequently, and/or
• Exert up to 10 pounds of force constantly to move objects
Additional Requirements:
Full time position consisting of 40+ hours per week; normal hours of operation are Monday through Friday, 2:15pm to 10:45pm. This position may require long hours and weekend work due to production, rework or customer deadlines.
Pre-employment drug test and background test required.
Equal Opportunity Employer–minorities/females/veterans/individuals with disabilities/sexual orientation/gender identity
Company Description
Our goal is to help officers return home safely every day, while in turn, keeping their communities, state and country safer. This is why VirTra created realistic, immersive training solutions that keep law enforcement and military safe, prepared and armed with excellent skills. This is done through state-of-the-art software, hardware, scenarios, curriculum and accessories created by in-house industry professionals and subject matter experts. Interested in joining our expanding cause
Fish, agreed, I think we see much higher prices in the next few months. Something major is brewing and they would not raise capital and go on a hiring spree for a few extra orders...
The STEP agreements which maybe over looked (see attached, one of several I have found) are pretty legit longterm. Scroll thru the outright purchase price and see what the comparable lease payments are, its solid! Its a great value to the agency that doesn't have the budget and a solid return for the company though it takes a bit to recoup the cost. How many agencies will drop the service after 5 years (unless a better product is offered at a similar value)??? I have no idea how they compare first hand to other systems on the market but based on the caliber of customers they have, it must be a decent product...
Based on what they have in the backlog already, the valuation seems reasonable on the low end and my hope is they gain the attention of many others with a big PR. In a perfect world, this could get stupid like GME and AMC (similar to the computerized trading we saw at Q1 earnings) and we all have a happy exit.
All will be clear in the near future...
ARZ, I agree, most companies utilize debt to improve ROE. I think in this case we have an unseasoned CEO who is more geared towards running a small company and is likely more debt adversed since they put effort into paying everything off a few years back (which I can understand from a personal prospective). If you have been involved in this stock as long as I have you know they were a complete mess years ago and have made huge improvements over the years (though it has taken a while)...
Bob is in the same boat as us from a dilution standpoint so hopefully he made the right "longterm" decision. On the flip side, companies issue equity all the time to grow and increase the float which leads to improved price stability which every company wants. From what I can tell, the stock is up 40% or so since the issue so its worked out ok so far. I would hope for this large of a dilution its not for a 10M type order and more along the lines of 40m+ as the GM has to be 60%+ since most of the infrastructure is in place already (minus additional headcount). Overall I feel like they are doing a decent job however, there is no doubt in my mind, a more experienced CEO may have gotten us there faster...
I added a little more stock this am as well as some calls (which is nice they are trading). The STEP program seems to be gaining some tractions however, it will be a drag on earning for a while but a solid ROI over time as the prices they are getting seem pretty strong.
I'd imagine we will have some clarity in the next few months. Until then, its nice to see a little validation to all of our thoughts after years of speculation...
My guess is we all have a chance to exit at a much higher number in the near future.
After 10+ years of owning this stock, it finally seems like we may finally see some decent upside from a reasonable valuation. At the end of Q1 they had approx 102 employees, openings for 11 new positions (currently), 3/4 year of backlog already on the books, and over a years worth of cash on hand. Its hard to not see the writing on the wall of something big about to materialize. I've searched all over the internet and can't seem to find any info on a new potential large military contract even though Bob has insinuated something is brewing and likely may have already occurred... I did find a few STEP awards (not PR'd) as they were small (35-40k per year each). These will add up over time and you can't beat reoccurring revenue. The retail price on the parts, warranty etc, seem like they should have a high GM and be should be able to make a great longterm return on them.
I'm not a fan of small cap stocks, but over the years I've added shares several different times and with the gradual growth, its turned into a top 3 position so I'm now watching it closely which I never anticipated, lol!
Hopefully we all are presently surprised with a juicy contract by Q2 earnings.
New Contract
I like the strong backlog and equity raise, seems like we may have an interesting 2021. Just ran across this today. Has not been awarded yet but seems hard to miss on a sole source contract...
https://beta.sam.gov/opp/8225429488784514a4df64beddd07d6e/view
Paused again at 10:02
TD Ameritrade - DJNews stream
9:31am "Virtra paused due to volitility" - just fyi
Agreed, they don't need to acquire but it definitely speeds up growth when done properly. I have bought 3 small competitors over the years and would do it again 100 times over (for similar deals) as the ROI was better than what we were currently generating trying to grow organically. If you have most of the infrastructure all ready in place, they value add can be huge...
In the simulator market the customer acquisition cost is extremely high so it seems like it would make sense if they could sell the same customers additional products. They already have most of the infrastructure in place so the cost to ramp up probably wouldn't be to bad. Additionally, diversification can be a good thing. Many of the largest companies in the world generate more money off of later add-ons than they did from their initial services (GE, Apple, Amazon, etc).
Either way, I guess we all will see how it shakes out. Hopefully at some point they will provide better clarification on a future direction/plan.
On another note, anyone who makes investment decisions by what they read on a chat board deserves to lose their money. These boards are mainly for entertainment and anyone who really had in-depth knowledge of a company would not be posting it on a chat board...
Probably frustration after the last CC (lack of meaningful info) and a few glasses of wine, lol.
I really would not have anything of substance to add to the discussion but like reading the posts to see the good links posted and its another source of info that I wouldn't ever take the time to find. VTSI is a small part of my portfolio and was bought only on spec with no real expectations. Honestly I have been pretty impressed with the improvements they have made when you look back over the last several years. I'm not a big fan of penny stocks but they seem to be evolving into a decent company with some potential.
Chance are I won't post often but will continue to read the posts. I appreciate hearing different opinions and some are quite entertaining:)
Hello board!
I've been in this stock for 5-7 years (lost track....) and have read every financial and pr's issued. It seems over the years they have made great improvements from where they were (duchess debacle, etc) and are on the right track but everything takes time. I'm a little surprised at the capital raise as well but think if its for an acquisition in the driving/flying simulator (or other related add on) it may be a good thing over the longterm. I'm not familiar with the simulation industry or market size but it seems like they would have a hard time significantly growing revenues on just the systems they offer and I bet the reoccurring is probably less than 10% of overall sales. I am a small business owner (20+ years) and have learned the value of reoccurring sales as opposed to large "one-time" jobs (especially during a recession/government cut back)... Unless they do something material in size, I really can't see a reason for the stock price to increase much from what is probably a slightly discounted price today day based on the NOI and the transactional type business.
The one negative I really see is the investment in MR. From reading the MR SEC filings they look like a bunch of guys simply wanting to take a shot at a business idea on investors money with no real skin in the game. Some of the deals they made from paying off very small debts with stock, deals with officers to multiple shell companies really looks bad. I don't know the ins and out but I would never put a dime in MR and hope they don't get to deep with them. Maybe I'm wrong but I tend to believe that lack of clarity and ambiguity happens for a reason...
An up-listing would probably help the stock price some but not sure the valuation justifies a big increase from current levels without some clarity on a multi-year plan detailing how they are going to grow the business. The CC are pretty much useless and they do not provide any substance at all (which doesn't help). Maybe over time Ferris will get more comfortable with the importance of share holder communication and start taking live questions and provide some details like a normal public CEO does.
For disclosure I bought 400,000 (pre-split .03-.10 range) and have sold about 20% over time.
Thanks for allowing me to vent and I have enjoyed reading the previous posts on this board!