CHARTS_CCI_SYSTEM

[dindindon]

12/12/15 SPX weekend

This is a draft version (Grammatical ... skips some sensitive geopolitical topics ,, etc)

Review

- 10/08/15 The combat Zone
- 1944.65 1970.34 1996.03 2021.72 2047.41
- So far, 2213.50 remains a pipe dream for E-wavers.
(Edit: SPX slips into this zone again.)

- 11/22/15 SPX weekend
- in case reversal takes place before 2103, (Edit: 2104.27)
- then gives weight for "jogging" within two possible trend lines
- i felt these popular "hand crafted art" (wave counts) have the "fingerprints" on it, not "natural"


- 12/05/15 SPX weekend
- wait for trend-lines breakout to zoom in the possible Fibonacci points.
(EDIT: break downward on 12/11/15)

- 04/05/15 11:03:35 PM
Chinese proverb: The Fox Borrows the Tiger's Ferocity.
I am saying those bullish E-wavers are "bullying" bears for too long. The Long term E-wave projection is susceptible with market underlying intrinsic conditions. Now, QE is behind us, ZIRP drives the index at a snail’s pace ( Q1 open 2058.90, close 2067.89), the market intrinsic is different from last few years. ... well, Let’s see whether their wishful thinking will transpire; Bear in mind, it is the Market deploy those waves, therefore, the master (Market) & slave relationship is clearly defined.

- 01/30/15 11:12:30 PM
'A few' E-woofers say SPX is in wave 3, after down wave 4, we will see blah blah blah ATH wave 5. This melody has been out there for quite a while, very ‘loud’. Let me 'jinx' it, How about a wave 5 Truncation?

Basic Tenets of the Elliott Wave Principle

A truncated fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. It can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five sub waves, as illustrated in the following figure

Truncation gives warning of underlying weakness or strength in the market. In application, a truncated fifth wave will often cut short an expected target.

December 12, 2015
weekend update Tony caldaro
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/12/12/weekend-update-530/

After a four month uptrend from the August SPX 1867 Primary IV low, the SPX failed to make new highs and is now in a confirmed downtrend. This suggests to us, that the bad news of the current correction will lead to the good news of an extending bull market into at least next year. Primary V now has to divide into five Major waves/trends before the bull market ends. The bad news is good news bull market continues.

After the Primary IV downtrend low in August we labeled the five waves up of the new uptrend with Major waves. This was in anticipation that this first uptrend could end the bull market. The five waves progressed as expected, until the fifth wave failed to make a higher high in both the SPX/DOW. With the NDX/NAZ making higher highs, and the SPX/DOW not, we counted this pattern as a fifth wave failure. The five waves were SPX: 1993-1872-2116-2019-2104.

The entire uptrend is now considered to be Major wave 1 of Primary V, and the current downtrend Major wave 2.

comments: A nice way to “dispatch” the bear case. So, Tony suggested the fifth wave of major wave 1 failed, his Primary V is extended as 5 major waves.

I tell you ya, this is a probability game,
Bull E-wavers have their wings on the wind,
May the force be with ...(you bet on it..)
But, Alibaba's magic carpet ride isn't eternal, see how long the “wind season” can be extended.

11/04/15 11:49:24 AM with Edit

"Fundamental" analysis, observed

Hot Soak: The engine remains hot for a period of time after it is turned off

Two of the major engines to drive the stock bull market since 2009

(i) QE is behind us.
(ii) China 4 trillion stimulus package (2008-2012) is behind us. the “Hot Soak” phenomenon dragged another 2 years. in reality, China entered the deleveraging cycle since 2012, their leaders warned “painful” time ahead honestly. ( The next 5 years will be a painful period for the reform of Chinese economy, and the main goals need to be achieved by 2020. http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-09/06/content_21794795.htm )

in essence:

- stock bull market dual engines were in shutdown mode, The QE “Hot Soak” works at its finest Crescent moment. Bulls' only hope is the QE hot money flows back to the US stock market continuously. However, China are pulling the USD leg with his deliberative tactic maneuver. Let’s wait and see.
(extended reading: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/03/06/dollar-imperialism-2015-edition/ )

Read at your own peril:

Amanita Newsletter December 10, 2015

http://www.amanita.at/docs/open/newsletter-e.pdf

1. (Question) equity: what shall we wait for in 2016 for the main equity indices (DAX, EuroStoxx, Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq)? What does Bradley model foresee? Which are the main turning points of the year to come?

(Answer) The Amanita models suggest an equity bear market from 2015 into 2017.

6. (Question) If I had a large sum of money (in cash), what would you suggest me to do? Leave it all in cash, buying gold or diamonds? Land or stocks/ETFs?

(Answer) In my opinion, at present everybody who has a simple and straightforward answer to that question doesn’t know what he is talking of. There are no places to hide, so no safe haven.

As warned since 2013, the decade until 2023 is the first in history were you only have bad, very bad and terribly bad investments. For the first time in history the only reasonable financial goal is to avoid a total loss, as this decade will bring about the biggest wealth destruction in the history of mankind (especially in the early 2020s). So far this call has been spot on: now in late 2015 virtually all major asset classes are lower than at the 2013/14 highs, even in nominal terms. But actually the real wealth destruction hasn’t started yet, this is just peanuts

Now what?

12/12/15