Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Thank you Frobinso:
Great post full of great DD to explain the possible links to LWLG involvement.
AR.
You're correct Rkf,
but Fidelity's position changed drastically in the last 9 trading sessions.
Vanguard remains the largest fund family by far.
AR.
Hi All,
Since Monday 1/24, when I last posted about the funds ownerships per Morningstar,
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/lwlg/ownership
The top 20 funds now own over 6.5M shares compared to just under 5.7M on the 24th.
The largest newcomer in the interval is Fidelity Extended Market that took a position of just over 525,000 shares...
With 4 funds in the top 20, Fidelity now owns over 850,000 shares!
But of course, we know some will come here and declare these funds have no choice in the shares they have to purchase?!?
Well, it is clear to me who is pushing the price down while they can.
But watch out when the news start rolling in, because those shares are going to get mighty hard to acquire IMO, unless you're willing to pay a hefty premium...
Grabbing some popcorn.
GLTAL
AR.
Hey Spartex, it sounds like you're "All-in"?
A listener as well? Great show!
AR.
I'm not sure I whole heartedly agree with this statement LL:
The perception and interpretation of time varies greatly depending on the group that emits their opinion: traders have a completely shortly skewed interpretation when compared to industry, where short-term can be 1 to 2 years, mid-term 2-5 years and long term past that...
Let's just be aware of the groups discrepancy and let's qualify our passing of time more precisely for our own sake.
ie, the fulfilment of the last ASM goals is expected to happen in the next 4 months. Maybe faster: at any point between now and the end of May.
Just a thought.
AR.
Total agreement here Reds!
"... I look forward to closely working with him as we strive to create sustainable, long-term value for our shareholders," concluded Lebby.
GLTAL
AR.
You do understand the shares have been bought and lent by these funds and are now NOT available to cover, right?
AR.
Funds are accumulating relentlessly!
According to the Morningstar LWLG fund update this morning, large funds keep accumulating:
In the top 20 funds: 5.685M shares owned as of 2022 01 24
Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv 2,936,371
Vanguard Extended Market Index Investor1,335,926
Schwab US Small-Cap ETF™ 401,260
BlackRock Extended Equity Market K 175,300
NT Ext Equity Mkt Idx Fd - NL 87,278
Vanguard Balanced Index Inv 79,946
NT Ext Equity Mkt Idx Fd - L 78,143
Vanguard Instl Ttl Stk Mkt Idx InstlPls 77,491
iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF 75,765
NT Ext Equity Mkt Idx Fd - DC - NL - T2 64,534
Schwab US Broad Market ETF™ 49,884
Fidelity® NASDAQ Composite Index® 48,232
State St US Extended Mkt Indx NL Cl C 43,600
SSgA U.S. Extended Market Index Class I 43,600
Schwab Total Stock Market Index 38,703
Vanguard U.S. Eq Idx £ Acc 36,470
BlackRock U.S. Equity Market F 34,227
DUI Wertefinder I 30,000
JPMorgan BetaBuilders US Sml Cp Eq ETF 25,574
iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Growth ETF 23,632
Total (for Top 20) 5,685,936
I concur.
Last year the market was up big time. A correction once in a while is necessary to re-establish a solid base.
I much prefer the correction to take place now, and then things turn around because we can get inflation under control and the sky is not falling after all, and LWLG makes their announcement in a solid growing market environment. $30+ on the horizon.
GLTAL
AR.
I wouldn't be opposed to a "profit-sharing" kinda dividend from the DCs, based on the power saving $, every year, over the life cycle of the modulators...
That would be a nice basis to get dividends ourselves!
AR.
Spartex, the FANGS target is to get suppliers to find a way to produce modulators at $1/Gbps...
Today, they are at about $3-5 if i understand correctly...
AR.
Hi Lewrock,
Maybe this board can do a better job than I, but as rough estimate, based on the enclosed course, it is my understanding that the electrical consumption related strictly to the transport of information in the DC, in exclusion of cooling and others, hovers around 34% of the overall bill: see Chap 5, graph p104-.
I would be glad to get a more technical read from any other members here...
Thanks in advance,
AR.
https://www.morganclaypool.com/doi/pdf/10.2200/S00874ED3V01Y201809CAC046
Hi Pro,
I think to get an idea, we can refer to the PIC engineer job posting on LWLG LinkedIn:
"The successful candidate will play a key role in the design, development, and qualification of polymer-based PICs for both active and passive devices so that Lightwave can build a library of components (mux, demux, modulator, waveguide, spot size converter, etc.). The candidate should have experience working with Silicon foundries and experience using Process Design Kits (PDKs)."
We've got more components coming out of the prototype manufacturing line in Englewood CO, that foundry partners are evaluating every day, testing, being blown away by low power consumed (1/2 to 1/3 of traditional components), by the speed attained (2x to 3x vs previous versions of same components), by the ease with which they will be able to fit these in their manufacturing process, by how many other components they will be able to remove from previous designs, because old power-hungry drivers are no longer needed, creating space on chips for additional functions...
The PDKs are coming, and shortly thereafter, the new chips designs, demanding LWLG inside. And as X said, from one quarter to the next, here is an opening order for 100K polymer modulators, and please throw in the grating couplers to make it easier to connect to the laser, also add a layer for the passive waveguides, helping us change the level in which the light beam is travelling on chip, a couple spot size converters for good measure...
Board members, if you're comfortable with your position, go ice fishing, surfing or what ever it is that rocks your boat: good days are coming!!!
GLTAL,
AR.
Juenke, I think what you mean to say is they are bonded, like Pi-bonded (with a covalent bond, like the new material...) at the hip?!?
Thanks,
AR.
On the subject:
While speaking with Pr Arduengo at an ASM around 2012, I was stunned then, when he declared, that in comparison with the materials used at the time, the best of which had a solar energy conversion rate in the 10-15%, the materials he was testing from LWLG were "several folds" (2x? 3x?...) more efficient in the process. Then the strategic focus changed and we became an electro-optic devices company. But the capacity remains I am certain.
Another leg to the business model?
GLTAL
AR.
Welcome to the board Polymer Paul,
If I were you I would just adjust my compass quickly to avoid agita...: the goals stated by CEO Dr. Lebby calls for achieving commercial partnership within a year of last annual shareholders meeting, so end of May 2022, I'm even good calling it end of 2Q 2022...
It will just help manage expectations on the board.
GLTAL
AR.
Thanks Dude,
When you add 750k shares for funds to the 1.2m shares owned by institutions, there are already over 2m shares owned institutionally...and the Feb15 report for ownership as of Dec 31 will be fascinating IMO for the growth in institutions holdings...
What an exciting year ahead of us...
GLTAL
AR.
Happy New Year to All!
What a year we just had... just incredible.
Grateful for the community assembled here and for what can be learned from a lot of great contributors. Thank you each and every one of you.
And unbelievably, I expect 2022 to be even more exciting!!!
Stay healthy, have a prosperous year and a close group of friends and family to share it with.
Looking forward to meeting a lot of you this year.
!!!Happy New Year!!!
GLTAL
AR.
Well said Buzz!
I did not climb this hill to start making Sell decisions based on potential tax implications or insiders trimming their long-held option positions, maybe to buy more shares tomorrow with the profits...
No: I came here to see how one can spell DISRUPTIVE and UBIQUITOUS with contracts and with annual sales forecast. That's what I'm here for.
Also, nobody spoke of contracts by January or February...
The deadline is 2Q 2022.
Grab popcorn, a pure malt and sit back... Happy New Year to all!
GLTAL
AR.
I'll drink to that!!
Cheers!
Merry Christmas to all!!
AR.
I agree Rkf, That's what I said... Accumulation over the 2 weeks prior to the weird AH trades...
AR.
Since Dec 6, there has been a noticeable rise in shares traded per day to around 2M which coincidentally took the price from $14 to $20... I think the accumulation may have started a few days before the transfers AH started on the 15... And low and behold, we seem to be settling down around $17... now who is it and what do they want to do with the shares??
GLTAL
AR.
Assuming it's the same group since Wednesday last week accumulating ~ 600K shares a day (2.4M cumulated), this leaves the balance of Friday's AH large trade at ~ 4.2M (to date).
This may prove to be >3 Institutions with about 2M shares ...
When you see the variety and quality of the names that showed up in the 3Q21 institutional report (on Oct.15), this doesn't seem out of Wack?!? Around 2% ownership per large holder.
That's what will provide price stability in the long run.
We'll know by Feb.15 at the latest.
GLTAL
AR.
Yep, I saw that!
AR.
Red,
It does sound expensive and moving parts don't make for great reliability over time IMO...
Lightyears ahead here in term of manufacturing simplicity: spin coat, pole and bake for 3x the speed, 1/2 the power, driverless green photonics!!! PDKs in a global SiP foundry somewhere near you.
GLTAL,
AR.
Another option X:
I recently sent party invites to a few deep pocketed or well-connected individuals, whenever I come across a discussion tangentially related, on social media...
A couple who come to mind in the last couple weeks:
@PeterDiamandis
@SundarPichai
@EricSchmidt
Maybe some sent their RSVP last night?
GLTAL
AR.
Richard,
Is it ok for me to repost this on other forums?
With credits of course.
AR.
Thank you Richard!
As always, you bring a professional opinion to this board that casts a terrific additional light to the developing scene!
Thank you for your ongoing contribution.
Happy Holidays!
GLTAL
AR.
And we know where this GPU power is coming from Steve don't we?!?
AR.
Thank you Tkg,
This presentation from Pr. Bogaerts is where LWLG proof of concept of "light switching light" will really come out to shine!
Imagine encoding information in the THz domain vs the GHz... Ohh the cryptologic potential of mixing various modulation schemes into those signals?!?
Now if we can remain independent long enough is another story. But this is the time of the year when you can wish for miracles.
GLTAL
AR.
Spartex,
I think you forgot to mention in your simplified business overview that LWLG, after selling the Goo, will collect the royalties from licensing the device designs to those using the perkynamines... And that's besides the tech transfers agreements...
GLTAL
AR.
"Walking on thin Air"?!?
This investor in our industry seems to take a different tack, and given the size of his commitment, in Billions, I am more willing to follow his research than yours!
Mubadala CEO - K. Al Mubarak - Interview about GFS and the future of the foundry business (where LWLG will be a major part of the growth...)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/abu-dhabi-investor-of-chip-giant-globalfoundries-sees-exponential-growth-for-the-industry/ar-AARKy8E?ocid=msedgntp
GLTAL
AR.
Hi Lewrock,
Since a few drops go a long way, the mason jar might keep the material fresher... but when you reach "UBIQUITOUS", there may be no way to avoid the 55G drums...
GLTAL
AR.
Nice image for the short keeping up with their accounts "rolling" downhill!!
LOL
AR.
Hi Scope,
I believe the update for the funds holding as of Sept 30th was issued around Nov 15, so with the same lead time, we should know about the funds holdings as of Dec 31st around Feb. 15 2022.
What a week...
AR.
Happy Birthday Buzz!!
May this rocket take you - and the rest of us - to infinity and beyond!!!
GLTAL
AR.
Koog, there's life outside of the miniaturization space!
in 2018 GFS repositioned themselves away for the size race under 7nm, towards the feature-rich space, where the market is now valuing this company nearly $400B (reminder: the float is only 55M shares out of 535M total shares...) and growing with the advent of markets like mobile computing, 5G RF infrastructure and DCs, Automotive...
You cannot make statements like "no-one incorporates optics in their roadmaps" just because the only roadmap you look at is the <4nm map!?!
I understand it not the space that tickles your fancy, but this space has value none the less. And it looks like LWLG has a good chance of getting a growing share in that space.
And who knows, when the optics have grown mature enough to become the material of choice for circuitry, with light switching light and no heat management required, they may make their way into the sub 14nm CMOS arena sometimes in the future?!?
Wishing you all the luck in the world in your investment of choice, I just chose another category to invest in.
Best to you.
AR.
GFS with a roadmap in SiP that is based on EO components:
Tom Caufield - GFS CEO during 3Q21 conference calls, addressing the market that LWLG is targeting:
"Next, our communications infrastructure and data center end market, which constituted approximately 17% of our third quarter revenue, saw over 30% year-over-year growth, driven by a combination of share gains by our customers, continued strength in the enterprise data center study infrastructure in RF transceiver markets."
(...)
"In silicon photonics, our 45CLO platform delivered first customer prototypes that demonstrated in 8 lambda 32-gigabit per second optical link with extremely low bid errors. We are the technology leader in silicon photonics as we are the only provider of integrated CMOS RF SOI and optical devices in a monolithic solution. This unique capability will drive a whole new upgrade of connectivity in data centers over the next decade.
LWLG: Right place and right time!
GLTAL
AR.
PS: (oh and btw, someone was wrong when they implied that not one chip manufacturer has photonics and electronics monolithically integrated on one platform!!! Sorry Koog)
X of course I also understand this is an option... but if Dr Lebby can set us up on a path where we are disruptive and ubiquitous in at least a couple industries (communication, Lidars, 5G, take your pick...) I would so much prefer a solution that would license usage in separate market verticals... This would also help us finance the R&D on the all-optical transistor which would guarantee another set of 10x-100x increases through new markets verticals... Don't wake me up yet please, i like my dreams...
Best to all Longs,
AR.