Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Great News F2!
Speedy recovery: don't get hooked on Oxy!?!
Be well.
AR.
Well F2, I wish you the best!
Looking forward to your swift return to the board, hopefully with enough rehab in you so you can perform the well deserved jig we all expect to celebrate with within a few days/weeks!
Feel better fast!
AR.
They fought with the spirit of Spartans!!
;)
AR.
I understand today was national peacock day!?! Who knew?
But the Jersey Boys have struck again! Exciting tournament for sure.
Enjoy your weekend.
AR.
In reply to Jerry5,
Sorry I didn't see your message earlier:
jerry5
Friday, March 11, 2022 11:42:47 AM
Reference power analysis.
Are you thinking photonics will replace all the electronics in the server?
I was of the impression photonics would be used mainly for the interfaces.
jerry
No, certainly not at first. The power of LWLG offering in a first step is that it is compatible with existing components, just complementing them , making them faster and helping to save power.
This will guarantee faster adoption in existing networks. With groundbreaking benefits already.
But options have been discussed by management over the years, that would be of great interest for the future:
- light controlling light for an all optical switch
- Diamondoids added to the polymers to make them act like a semiconductor material
You can start to see a future where light gets ever closer to the CPU of any computing system, with all the benefits in terms of heat management, speed, simplicity of design etc...
But this is all LT prospects.
JMHO
GLTAL
AR.
You're welcome F2,
But in truth, it was all Richard...
AR.
Hi Richard,
I took the liberty to repost, in your name, your top ten dots connecting LWLG to GFS Fotonix for 2H22 commercialization, on Reddit, and in less than 48 hrs, you garnered nearly 650 views with 95% upvotes ! You are showing the light to a great many investors... Grateful investors...
Thank you again.
GLTAL
AR.
Someone please refresh my memory: was $1/Gb the price for modulators or for whole transceivers?
AR.
To all technical posters,
To follow up on Lewrock's attempt at quantifying eventual revenues, do you see any merit in the following :
- Surface of a 300mm wafer: ~70685mm^2
- Dimension of a transceiver PIC: ~20mmx80mm ie ~1600mm^2
- # PICs /Wafer (using 14% waste area on the wafer): ~38
- Average Price of a 50Gbps transceiver PIC: A?
- $ portion of the transceiver going to LWLG -
(4x polymer modulators, grating(s) and waveguides...)-: %xA = B?
Using GFS Yu's quote of a 10K wafer run (from the exchange w Pozo and Lebby: 10k x 38 x B = ~revenue to LWLG per 10k wafer run.
If you see any merit, please critique and fill in the blanks...
GLTAL
AR.
Nice call Fro!
Would a +10% today limit the shorts abilities tomorrow?
AR.
To all,
On this point, I want to clarify something.
I know I have been one recently who has been pointing to dots and saying this has to equate to LWLG involvement.
But let me be clear: I choose to invest through stock purchases - as opposed to buying options - for a reason: I do not want to be subject to timing on top of having to choose a quality investment.
To reiterate what X said earlier today: short term fluctuations do not affect me fundamentally as long as the business plan remains on track.
Dr Lebby has shown a certain level of integrity in what he has promised and when he delivered on those promises. I am basing some of my investment on the trust he built.
The dots I have connected are connected mostly to reinforce my opinion on our involvement, not so much on the timing of it, because so much can change unexpectedly...
I'm going to refrain posting much more from here on, as I do not wish to provide more fodder to shorts, even if they will have to buy back eventually.
I certainly hope we are part of PDK1.0, but have no guarantee of it!
Has it been a long road: Yes. Has it been worth it: Absolutely. Do I expect way more: Indeed I do!
GLTAL
AR.
Nrdc, Has GF made public it's PDK 1.0 yet?
Maybe they are restricting LWLG to go public until this happens? Dr Lebby has mentioned to expect a co-announcement.
AR.
Then Beurstip,
I urge you to re-read or re-listen:
The only commitment Dr Lebby made is for a commercial agreement by May 2022.
You should definitely read before you attribute false claims in writing.
You might find yourself slendering...
GLTAL
AR.
To all, PIC Conference speaker/Theme announced:
https://twitter.com/pic_conference/status/1503383159018242055/photo/1
It just keeps coming!!!
AR.
PG, Richard,
Thank you so very much for complementing my lack of depth in understanding the technical details. I know many here feel the same. This community would not be what it is without your contributions.
Be assured of the extent of my gratitude.
AR.
T,
I know you have not been here as long as some of us, but one thing is for certain: LWLG has shown an ability to move at a speed that leaves all other competing materials in the dust!
Since 2017.09.19, when they announced successfully testing a 50Gbaud modulator, they have triple the speed of their capabilities. Not to mention improving on the power savings.
They are the fastest innovator in the industry because Perkinamine offers a path to improvements.
LWLG announcing that they are working on improvements doesn't mean they are stuck in the mud: it means they have a solution that works to improve on the solutions that exist today, and they are working on tomorrow's improvements because they are not a one trick pony.
They are versatile enough to address the needs of several market verticals with not just one product, but with a portfolio of solutions.
It took a long time to convince the industry of the value of polymers because of historical weaknesses, but they are now crossing that bridge and are demonstrating the value of the platform by adding to their portfolio of solutions.
I believe Dr. Lebby when he publicly declared that he was preparing to have a commercial agreement in place by May 2022 because he has proven, since joining the company, he doesn't make this sort of statements lightly.
For that reason, I am hopeful that we will be part of PDK 1.0 when released in April.
But I am certain that the LWLG's team is also working on improvements and novelties for releases in 2.0, 3.0...
That's the beauty of being an investor here: the 7x to 20x return to date, even if you have been here >10yrs, is certainly worth the wait.
Be well,
GLTAL
AR.
One of the reasons I keep coming back to T is possibly a patent filing in the works.
While working on the PDK, LWLG may have shown a capacity to add another component in the process that the company want to protect by filing in the month the precedes the launch of the PDK?
anyone else ?
AR.
Total agreement!
AR.
Forget this post. Thank you Jeunke for your much more appropriate reply.
AR.
Steve, Yanqui,
I believe PhotonDelta is a prototyping / smaller size silicon foundry that works with European projects.
Good to be there as a proof of concept. Not the big kahuna, if my understanding is correct...
GLTAL
AR.
Hi Lewrock, I totally agree!
It would allow them to put $$$ signs in front of the eyes of analyst, without breaking any NDA or SEC rules...
Note: All numbers are fictional and need to be checked by a pro!
Just a kinda: If modulator A runs at 12V today, after applying Perkinamine, it will run 4v!
So with the numbers in the enclosed article,
https://www.racksolutions.com/news/blog/how-many-servers-does-a-data-center-have/
According vxchnge, a “typical” server rack uses 7 kW, and more higher powered racks use around 25 KW. It’s not likely that someone will use the entire 55kW per cabinet (server rack) offered by Switch, but we’ll use this number to reflect the worst case scenario in a data center.
850,000 kW / 7 kW = 121,428 racks * 52(U) = 6,314,256 1U servers
850,000 kW / 25 kW = 34,000 racks * 52(U) = 1,768,000 1U servers
850,000 kW / 55kW = 15,454 racks * 52(U) = 803,608 1U servers
To summarize, a data center with 850 Megawatts of capacity can run around 6,314,256 low powered 1U servers, 1,768,000 mid powered 1U servers or 803,608 high powered servers in a 52U Rack.
And assuming the average price of $0.0666/kWh in the US, an "average" 850MegaW DC has a server-related electric bill of around $478M. Once you run on Perkinamine-based modulators, you bill falls to $165M saving you around $313M a year in one DC! Profitability explodes for all DC operators! And for LWLG as well...
I think this is a good way to attract attention real fast.
AR.
Long term trend to keep an eye on?
It Start to sound like diamonds were the talk of the show this year...
https://ii-vi.com/news/ii-vi-incorporated-licenses-single-crystal-diamond-technology-from-element-six-to-enable-disruptive-applications-in-new-markets/
If that is the case, Dr L. puts us smack where we need to be next once again.
GLTAL
AR.
I'll second that Spartex! Thank you PG. Very enticing!
AR.
I'll drink to that Buzz
Believer,
Don't forget we also went from 1.5M institutional shares owned at the end of September to +10.5M at the end of December.
And my bet is they did not like a bit the price they had to pay to get in...
Then came the correction and the war?!?
But the good thing about betting on a long-term trend, is that you put time on your (/our) side. And that's a great thing.
GLTAL
AR.
PS: special thanks to "Culater" for the link to the great article detailing the projects on the participants in GFS new Fotonix ecosystems: what a great bunch of companies to be associated with to grow your sales... working with several of them would just about make you... UBIQUITOUS!!!
Here is a copy of my attempt to explain - posted earlier on another forum:
An Electro-Optic Ecosystem is being built from the ground up:
With OFC22 starting, here is a piece of background news that I believe is of fundamental importance for the future of LWLG, and why I think so:
It is no secret that traditional chips manufacturers have long held disdain for the nascent photonic chip ecosystem, keeping an amused look on what some describe as a lab experiment while minimizing the risk of the coming end to Moore's Law... Instead focusing intensively on the transistor count per shrinking size metrics.
But for the last ten or so years, with an eye on an ever more geo-politically complicated future, Global Foundry (GFS) has developed a growing, internationally diversified, business that intends to bring together the best of Electronics and Photonics. This is no small task as both have very diverging sets of constraints.
In order to succeed in a competitive world, the CEO has been extremely cautious, staying clear of the "if-you-build-it-they will come-approach", by seeking instead to garner customer consensus on technological achievements and securing long-term supply agreements, on very narrow but strategically critical and feature-rich components, prior to launching new multi-billion manufacturing lines.
It is in this context that I read with much interest the GFS "...an era of more in the Data Center..." news at the start of OFC22 yesterday, of an EO eco-system being brought together!
To me this says that that all the companies listed have coalesced around a set of technological objectives that GFS knows it can manufacture for them! So what are the groundbreaking technological advancements that brought together the likes of " industry leaders including Broadcom, Cisco Systems, Inc, Marvell and NVIDIA, along with breakthrough photonic leaders including Ayar Labs, Lightmatter, PsiQuantum, Ranovus and Xanadu "?
"GF solutions to move and compute data at speed of light
GF Fotonix is a monolithic platform, the first in the industry to combine its differentiated 300mm photonics features and 300GHz-class RF-CMOS on a silicon wafer, delivering best-in-class performance at scale. GF Fotonix consolidates complex processes that were previously distributed across multiple chips onto a single chip by combining a photonic system, radio frequency (RF) components and high-performance complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor (CMOS) logic on a single silicon chip. "
And the reason I am anticipating co-authored commercial agreement PRs, per the words of LWLG CEO, Dr M Lebby "by the 2022 Annual shareholder meeting" - which usually takes place around mid-to late Q2-, is reinforced by the other tidbit in yesterday's announcement, of
" GF Fotonix solutions will be manufactured at the company's advanced manufacturing facility in Malta, N.Y., with the PDK 1.0 available in April 2022. ".
All-in-all, things seem to fall in place for LWLG per the management announced schedule, and in a way that would make Dr. Lebby's forecast of a "UBIQUITOUS" presence in the
- Data Centers,
- Lidar
- 5G,
- High-Performance Computing,
- OLED Display,
- Medical and Industrial Sensing... markets, become a reality.
LWLG, 3x the speed, 1/3 the power solution is about to take those markets by storm.
I'm looking forward to it.
GLTAL
AR.
Nrdc92, If you don't feel that our executive team are eating, drinking, breathing LWLG day and night, doing their damnest to bring it to commercial status as fast as possible, maybe you should consider taking your profits on Monday and moving on to better opportunities.
I'm almost sure we met when you used to come to the annual shareholder meetings when they took place in Delaware, and I was wondering how long since you sat down with someone in management? Maybe that lack of contact is the cause of your jitters... I understand management should not require you to meet them in person to convince you as an investor, but it certainly helps, as described by the reports from those who had a chance to meet them directly recently.
I am personally convinced they will, once again, reach their annual goals, as they have done consistently since the new management team took over the last few years. I believe Michael is sharply aware of the stakes, when launching a new technology that had a lot of baggage in the past -polymer weaknesses- and knows he has only one chance to do so: it is my opinion that he is making sure every detail is vetted before moving on to the next stage. This takes a little time. But the progress keeps being communicated as soon as it happens.
When I have a specific issue that I feel needs to be addressed, I send an email directly to Michael or Jim to raise my concerns. There is no need for that on an internet message board, regardless of how good it is. All IMHO. We are very close, whether the good news comes next or next month.
Stay well,
GLTAL
AR.
Tleprathy,
since you are a man of details, you certainly have picked up in the last 10K, the management statement regarding these material concerns:
p5:
"We are aware of other academic and commercial development efforts- some by larger companies with vastly more financial resources than we possess. However, we believe that no one yet has developed organic polymer materials that have demonstrated the combination of thermal stability and photochemical stability that can meet or exceed commercial specifications.
[- meaning, like we do!- cf parag. above: " While many new applications do not require full military specifications for polymers, many potential customers prefer to see polymer operate at or near these conditions (ref: -55C to 150C) to convey confidence in the material system. We understand from initial conversations with data centers architects and designers that the temperature specifications that our materials achieve are compliant with their equipment design needs".]
I hope this helps assuage your fears.
GLTAL
AR.
Thank you for your opinion on that point PG.
This is comforting.
GLTAL
AR.
Hi Maheu,
I think the article you attached might be making reference to the type of tech LWLG recently included with the recent patent receipt: mention of the polymer Grating Couplers that simplify and improve the connection of the laser to the PIC.
Nice to see our patented tech going where the market needs it.
GLTAL
AR.
There they are Vein...
Thanks for the props Richard.
It sounded like a good lead. It's comforting you feel the same apparently. Now let's see what MACOM and their manufacturing partner have ready to be announced at OFC.
GLTAL
AR.
X,
When you have a chance, go check your yahoo email.
AR.
I don't think this makes sense Nrdc92, I remember speaking with the Morgan Stanley representative several years back who said he was there representing the interest of the founders family.
In the latest report, MS only shows 55K shares.
This doesn't jive.
AR.
Yes Richard.
In agreement here: this driverless transceiver comment in the last conference call really has me on pins and needles...
GLTAL
AR.
There was a lot in there about the ability to build components that provide better power management for the multitude of IOT devices that work on batteries and demand better power efficiency (from EV cars to sensors).
AR.
No Dudes, You got that right! How to secure margins for the LT:
CEO Caufield reply:
1- Choose large TAM/SAM markets with LT prospects of growth(ie LWLG)
2- Identify the specific features within that industry that are going to provide LT differentiation w competitors (ie LWLG: 3x speed, 1/3 power,...)
3- Work in a co-investment strategy with the customers for the LT to invest in the production equipment necessary (similar to the technology transfer approach proposed by Dr Lebby)
It also sounded like the fab that will address more specifically the needs of the Communication and Infrastructure Data centers is more likely to be the Burlington VT one...
Very interesting call. I can't wait to read the transcripts.
AR.
I thought this one rung close to home...
"While there are opportunities in many segments, the data center market is one of the first to adopt modular architectures. Many cloud service providers (CSPs) are looking to create customized compute machines that incorporate accelerators, with the goal of improving data center performance for workloads such as artificial intelligence. Closely integrating accelerator chiplets in the same package as a data center CPU enables significantly higher performance and reduced power compared to placing accelerator cards near CPU boards."
GLTAL
AR.
Also of interest:
Is INTC going to open this fund to Electro-optics chips as opposed to exclusively electronics, since they are targeted firstly to the Datacom universe?
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/intel-launches-1-billion-fund-build-foundry-innovation-ecosystem.html#gs.ofar0r
GLTAL
AR.
Intel improves its position on collaborations to makes IFS work!
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/intel-foundry-services-launches-ecosystem-alliance-accelerate-customer-innovation.html#gs.of8o17
The description of what Pat Gelsinger just announced is of critical importance for LWLG PDKs!
If Dr. L previous connections were at work here - despite our Lightwave Logic's name not appearing yet -, this could also be huge and worthy of calling LWLG offering UBIQUITOUS...
GLTAL
AR.