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Jose Pozo, CTO for Optica, is laying out his top 5 trends to look for at OFC San Diego:
#3: ... high speed modulators like those from LWLG
Nice!!!
He also posted in a previous post, that "despite not having a crystal ball, he looks forward to Lightwave Logic scaling up production in 2024"!!
Great to hear from industry participants for a change, especially when sharing some confidence !
I've been here for over a decade, and will, god willing, be here for a few more!
GLTAL
AR.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/josepozophotonics_sandiego-ori-ofc2023-activity-7036358964678160384-o-ZA?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_detail_base%3BW1IAfs3jSkmVniqvpZJfiA%3D%3D
Stark, I remember Walter telling a story about stopping at a Home Depot on the way to visiting Mark S... with the intent to communicate the unwavering support of the whole European investors' group !?!
And maybe a subliminal message about what the sole target was to keep in mind...
Looking forward to the Elk Creek Tavern celebration!
Thank you again to sleuths on this message board that share their work and knowledge in such an un-selfish way with us newbies! Your generosity knows no bounds. And it certainly is appreciated!
GLTAL
AR.
Thanks Proto,
Someone is sensitive, ...
AR.
Hi Grunt,
Today report on Fintel for GXII Institutional ownership shows
2023-02-15 13F Jane Street Group, Llc 930,882
colored in green, meaning it refers to a new position.
From their front page, or the description of their business on Bloomberg, they appear to be a broker with offices around the world, so the client for which they purchased may be US-based or international...
But based on a $10 price, that's a $9M new position.
GLTAL
AR.
Hi Steve, Yes, I have a few... but nothing extraordinary...
AR.
Amongst the new recent buyers on Fintel, I like to be on this one's radar:
2023-02-07 13F LPL Financial LLC 205,527
Extract: LPL - Who we are:
(...) To support SAM, LPL inaugurated its own research department in 1992. Initially created to provide detailed, professional advice and guidance to advisors working with the SAM program, LPL Research has grown and matured into one of the largest and most tenured research groups (..)
In other words, they are one of the nation largest back office financial service firm, serving independent financial advisors throughout the country. Speak about leverage... "When it's going to rock'n, it's going to roll!!"
GLTAL
AR.
Amongst the new recent GXII buyers on Fintel, I like the size of the order reported today...
2023-02-07 13F First Pacific Advisors, LP 777,620 shares
GLTAL
AR.
AO, it's almost as if our Washington representatives were told last week to expect a series of good news from an OTC listed Critical Metals company out of SE Nebraska...
I wonder who was there to let them in on it...
AR.
PS: I like this map you posted, a whole lot! https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/agreed-project-study-location-map
To all, I also posted a litlte blurb on WallStreetBet at Reddit, which has >13M users...
Upvote and comment here as well if you're so enclined...
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/10syfz6/spac_gxii_and_merger_candidate_niocorp_go_to_dc/
Thanks in advance,
AR.
Apologies to all!
I seem to have mis-reported the information from Fintel:
The new buyers of note, since mid-November are only:
1/26/2023 13F Calamos Advisors LLC 533,506
11/16/2022 13F/A Bnp Paribas Arbitrage, Sa 1,200,000
Nice volume regardless.
The others on my previous list have updated their filing recently but their positions have not changed since the last time they had reported... They are not new buyers of GXII. Just holders who may have been backers of GXII since their listing on Nasdaq.
Again, my sincerest apologies, but it's nice to see recent interest regardless.
GLTAL
AR.
Here are some of the buyers in the last month Fintel.com/GXII
1/26/2023 13F Calamos Advisors LLC 533,506
1/26/2023 NP FNCMX - Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund 18,396
1/25/2023 NP PMSAX - Global Multi-Strategy Fund Class A 5,833
1/13/2023 13F Sanders Morris Harris Llc 100,000
12/29/2022 NP SPAX - Robinson Alternative Yield Pre-Merger SPAC ETF 24,552
12/27/2022 NP NATIONWIDE MUTUAL FUNDS - Nationwide Multi-Cap Portfolio Class R6 184
12/27/2022 NP BLACKROCK MID CAP DIVIDEND SERIES, INC. - BlackRock Mid Cap Dividend Fund Investor A 117,322
Source: https://fintel.io/so/us/gxii
AR.
This works for me as well Dan
AR.
TP
IMO, this would be a very poor investment decision:
As you have pointed out a thousand times, LWLG has not reached the commercial stage yet, but they have indicated that expect their first commercial milestone in 1H2023.
A lot of people over the years, have described the project at LWLG to remind them of a clinical stage biotech.
If we stick with this analysis for a moment, I very much equate the coming initial commercial agreements to a Phase 2b clinical stage trial, or a proof of concept on a wide enough basis to be statiscally representative.
This will mean that after all the required testings have come back, there is no reason left not to move towards scale up: all the silly accusations by people who, self admittedly, do not understand the technology, will loose complete relevance, because the steps of implementing the tech in a foundry have been proven out and can be replicated in any other foundry, regardless of the size.
And if you have any familiarity with the process by which Data Center implement new technology, you will recognize that once proven, a new tech is selected to be used for a cycle of several years, throughout which, volume goes up and profits explode.
A wise investor will invest when the proof of concept is provided.
I expect it within the next 75 trading days: next week next month, shortly thereafter??
And 20M shorts will then have to cover all while the larger players in the industry are going to be elbowing their way for the first-in-class this contract, or that license etc... until Lightwave Logic reaches UBITITIOUSNESS.
Your waiting might bring you peace-of-mind, but the cost will be hefty!
GLTAL
AR.
And there are over 20M shares that have been shorted and need to be re-purchased before substantial news hits the wires, which according to the company official releases, reviewed by legal and filed on the SEC website, will happen at ANY point between tomorrow and 75 trading days from now... Thats over 265000 shares a day, if the release were to happen around mid may... This rocket is about to launch and the smell of despair will get worse before it gets nauseating.
The fun hasn't even started yet, and the panicked peddlers are spending their Sunday's posting because there is another industry presentation where Lightwave Logic has been invited to present along with Intel: the subject will be:
"LOOKING AHEAD https://lnkd.in/erJBT7ag: On January 30th 2023, I have the chance to talk about one of the biggest market trends right now photonic industry. It's all part of the re-branded Laser Focus World's Executive Forum conference held yearly in San Francisco during #PhotonicsWest. It’s where we learn about the photonic industry's upcoming market trends from those making a difference.
For years, there has been a wall between the semiconductors and the photonic industries. That is partly because of the vast difference in production volumes. One thinking in thousands, the other in millions. But things are changing because, for the very first time, semiconductor fabs are excited about Silicon Photonics.
At Peter Fretty's Laser Focus World Executive Forum, we’ve brought together some of the key companies in the sector to explain what they see coming in the next 3 years and who needs to collaborate with whom to accelerate and grow the market.
We will have Dell Technologies (David Piehler) as one of the leading computing companies worldwide. And I am sure everyone is interested to hear what (Robert Blum) of Intel Corporation says after their recent US$5.4 billion acquisition of the Israeli Tower Semiconductor, one of the most important Silicon Photonics foundries in the world. How will these companies scale up? And are there any challenges that still need to be solved?
And then I also want to involve two up-and-coming startups, one of which is currently in stealth mode. But I’m sure they will have something massive to announce very soon. I’m talking about Peter Winzer founder of Nubis Communications, and then we have (Michael Lebby) of Lightwave Logic, Inc. They have an excellent track record on communicating how to bring new materials and photonic functionality to the semiconductor fabs.
Excuse me for ignoring faceless posters on a message board and listening to what is actually being discussed by industry representatives, who are looking at Lightwave Logic to find solutions for improving their future: And they have demonstrated no later than last week how God knows they need new solutions!!!
GLTAL
AR.
Oh TP...
I'm way too practical to philosophize about "what isn't" and prefer to do direct my research about "what is"... But i'm glad to see the board philosopher tackle this question as I sure you will come up with many a theories ... Enjoy!
AR.
Koog,
The experts at PhotonDelta, the EU group leading the implementation of photonics integration, when they launched their Photonics roadmap mid last year, took the question to the panel of industry experts attending: they seem to disagree with your point of view?!?
Check this video at the 55th minute:
Proto,
I particularly like some of the quotes in the video, from Nov. 2022, where Dr Lebby appears at the 3rd min mark:
That's the part where you enter the earnings multiple you think the market will place on this type of project:
historically the S&P trades at ~18x earnings
Nasdaq has been closer to ~30x earnings
Hi-growth companies have regularly traded at >~50x earnings
Tesla in 2021 has traded >~70x earnings...
You pick a number!
GLTAL
MB
IMO, M Smith just confirms that he wants funds to at least cover a certain portion of the plan he laid out on p27 of the Sept presentation, with access to up to $65M:
https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.156/gx0.d43.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/NioCorp_Investor_Presentation.pdf
Cost Element $25 $100 $150 $285
Final Subsurface Water and Subsoil
Characterization $11 $11 $11 $11
Exercise Additional Land Options $4 $4 $9 $9
Final Engineering Before Construction Start $2 $22 $39 $39
Site Preparation and Infrastructure ? $40 $40 $40
Initial Construction Works ? ? $15 $15
Production and Ventilation Shafts ? ? ? $89
Overhead and Site Management Costs $3 $14 $19 $44
Contingency $1 $3 $11 $21
G&A / NioCorp Execution Team $3 $5 $7 $17
To a constructive 2023! JMHO
AR.
As of today Proto, that's 26.47 million shares owned by institutions reporting 13F Forms
https://fintel.io/so/us/lwlg?d=2022-12-31
AR.
LWLG Revenue/Profit Projections!! One Small Foundry, One Customer/Application!!
Wow!!!! And it all starts with the Licensing Agreement and the Tech Transfer Agreement Lebby will be inking before the May 2023 ASM which is only 4 months away!!!!
KCC worked up the following projections, here
I’m going to preface this post by saying this is not my opinion on revenue guidance and it is just a demonstration to calculate potential revenue here with certain facts we know. Of course some assumptions are being made, but they are based on real world observations from industry participants and data provided by LWLG and market reports. What prompted this exercise was seeing a report that Intel had shipped over 2 million 100G silicon photonic transceivers in 2021. I asked myself what if LWLG was suppling all the modulators for those transceivers and how many wafers would need to be produced to supply the required number of modulators. Could small or medium sized foundries produce enough wafers to supply enough modulators for 2 million transceivers? (Yes!!) Could I estimate potential revenue with this information? (Yes!!)
What we know:
Modulator systems are designed on individual die/chips which are contained on a wafer.
A 150mm wafer contains 800 individual chips that are 6x3mm long. I’m using 150mm because that is more common, and I want to demonstrate the potential with a model that does not rely on 300mm. NLM Photonics is shown to be using 150mm wafers from VTT (their “first wafer”). If I counted correctly, they had 605 good die out of 800 or 76% yield.
LWLG’s initial products are targeting 800G.
800G can be reached with 8x100G NRZ or 4x200G PAM4.
LWLG’s patents show 4-8 modulators per transceiver (TxRx).
As TxRx speeds increase, the ratio of optics to electronics increases. At 100G, the optics comprise about 20% of the cost of TxRx. Other costs are test/packaging/assembly, R&D and G&A, operational margin.
Market reports and statements by LWLG say at 800G and beyond, the optics could comprise up to 80% of the cost of a TxRx. Lebby stated in the Q&A at the May 2022 meeting that because their modulator provides much of the benefit to the overall optics, they’ll be able to capture that value and it is not just a cost-plus structure.
Per PhotonicsGuy, the modulator portion of the optics should be at least 15%.
Industry goal is $1 per Gbps, however pricing right now shows up to $10 per Gbps for new 800G offerings.
Low quantity MPW runs cost between $20,000 and $100,000 per wafer depending on type and size. Economies of scale will bring the costs down in the future.
As of the end of 2021, there were 728 hyperscale data centers with half operated by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. At that time, there were over 300 more planned. Each hyperscale DC contains upwards of 100,000 transceivers.
Assumptions:
A 6x3mm die contains a 4-modulator array with the necessary passive waveguides/splitters. Each modulator is .75mm, so size-wise this seems to fit well.
800G will be reached with 4 lanes of 200G PAM4.
Pricing for 800G estimated to be $3.5 per Gbps by 2025, the year of high volume 800G. May or may not be conservative.
Optics account for 65% of the cost of an 800G transceiver. May or may not be conservative.
A cost of $25,000 per wafer. (This is a big unknown, but may be a reasonable assumption and this cost includes design, metals, and other costs on top of a basic wafer.)
LWLG will have 50 employees and a linear growth of burn rate from today equals $3 million monthly burn at mass commercialization. Let’s bump it up to $5 million monthly to account for significant increase in R&D and a buffer.
130,000,000 shares outstanding fully diluted.
Scenario Result:
3,300 wafers are needed to produce enough modulators for two million transceivers. This assumes a 76% good die yield.
Two million 800G transceivers are valued at $5.6 billion. The optics value of those equates to $3.64 billion. The modulator portion equates to $546 million.
It costs LWLG $82,500,000 for the completed wafers. That’s about 85% gross margin (what we expect compared to OLED). We know the actual cost of material is very low and wouldn’t significantly affect COGS.
$462,500,000 in gross profit from selling enough modulators for 2 million transceivers.
$402,000,000 in net earnings from selling enough modulators for 2 million transceivers.
$3 per share in earnings.
This is just one customer and one application.
Is this the site where one could learn from educated investors about breakthrough tech like LWLG?
Hey TP,
The answer lies in a concept called Total Cost of Ownership.
When a component becomes available that leads to a 90% saving in power usage on the transport portion of Data Centers total power bill, it doesn't matter if the component itself costs twice or three times the price to purchase it!
Do you know that US DC accounted for about 17GW of power usage in 2020 and this is expected to grow to about 30-35 GW by 2030?!?
Imagine the savings associated with choosing LWLG modulators for coming generations of transceivers...
A no brainer.
GLTAL
AR.
Today's announcement:
Sponsor Announcement ??
We are delighted to announce that
@Keysight
is a Platinum Sponsor of #PICInternational! ??
You don't want to miss this opportunity into the industry!
To find out more:
?? info@picinternational.net
?? 024 7671 8970
???https://picinternational.net
Why do they seek visibility at PIC Intl'? Could they possibly have new ways of measuring data speed past 100G?!? We know for a fact that they are working together w LWLG.
GLTAL
AR.
Vein, believe me, I share your impatience...but:
What i believe is happening here is that there is a shift:
In the last couple years, Dr Lebby had been focusing his time to help build the financial backbone of the company by attending investor conferences to bring in institutional investors. In the last 15 months, since the Nasdaq up-list, we have seen that growth with now over 1/4 of the shares in the hands of institutions.
Recently, it seems to me we are back to technical presentations, with a focus on a specific message:
Technology markets are evolving very fast! New markets of substantial sizes are emerging on the horizon : (per slide 16 of the ASM found here: https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/23d26d3e-c498-431f-ba5c-2250e5f374cb/c1234fc8-c29c-4282-dc60-1afe2a8e4a95?origin=2)
Photonic Applic. Photonic components market (est.2030)
Fiber comms ~$60-80B Existing/very strong growth
HPC/compute/AI ~$10-20B Existing/very strong growth
DCI/datacenter ~$20-30B Existing/strong growth
5G systems/backhaul/RF~$5 Existing/strong growth
Display/project ~$10-20B High-volume/strong forecast
Automotive(LIDAR) ~$30-50B High-volume & very strong forecast
Optical sensing/3D ~$4-10B High-volume & solid forecast
Bio-photonic sensing ~$2-5B Strong forecast
Medical ~$5-10B Strong forecast
Instrumentation ~$2-3B Strong forecast
If traditional electronics silicon foundries want to gain a share of these future markets, they need to start including photonics in their know-how, or they will be left behind: Dr Lebby is more subtle in his messaging, he often says "foundries like to produce more wafers".
But until this point in time, the market was completely unaware of this trend. GFS announcement of their efforts to build the Fotonix ecosystem at last year's OFC was the opening salvo. When you see the efforts that J Pozo, Chief Technology Officer at Optica, is putting into sharing the capacity of new materials to be processed on traditional foundry equipment without any changes to the processes, it follows the same objective.
In my opinion, it is called priming the pump.
So when the proper commercial agreement news is released by our little gem, it won't happen in a vacuum! And the trade magazines of the world, like Laser Focus World today, will be able to follow up on hybrid integration and then On-chip integration, until in a near future, we will hear of all-optical processing made possible by a new generation of superfast polymers.
Yes, it takes time to move a whole industry, but behold what is happening in front of our very own eyes...
It's like investing in Intel in the 1970s: Hold on for dear life to your shares for the next decade.
GLTAL
AR.
Wow Chico, Fantastic DD find!
As you say, If this does create an environment for the team to deliver, nothing will...
But that's why I joined this group, because in the team I trust!
GLTAL
AR.
Dude,
I believe that what Dr Lebby is pointing out is the fact that technology development brings to the world new markets that did not exist previously: Lidars as an example.
These new markets are based on optics and they are huge markets.
The only way chip manufacturers will have a chance to add these new markets to those they already cover is if they work with the photonics world to develop tomorow's chips.
Therefore, expanding on the markets that exist today.
Just IMO,
GLTAL
AR.
Thank you Luther, you beat me to it.
For those who do not realize, the slow process by which institutional investors are now trying to get a commanding percentage of the float, certainly feels like a long a painful road. But it will end when the company releases substantial commercial news. Very soon.
The alternative, while shorter in duration would have come with the value of YOUR shares sliced in HALF!!
Just think about that level of pain in comparison.
What was achieved is a rare feat, that very few attain.
Do not let fools tell you otherwise.
Objectives are being met. The implementation of new materials is being moved forward on the company's roadmap, proving that our future success is closer than we would previously have anticipated.
And the various world record-breaking proof of concepts that Dr Lebby has shared with us, are 3rd party confirmation, of the promises of a ubiquitous solution to many of the challenges facing the industry today.
And it all starts with the switch from being a research outfit to being a commercial venture in the coming few months. And then for decades to come.
GLTAL
AR.
Hey KC, here is what I wrtote:
"Q: What are your short term plan ... to commercialize, standardize EO polymers?
A: From our slides, you see that it takes a long time working with foundries, and you've seen announcements over the last year that we have been working with different types of foundries. We said to expect results later this year [2022 - which were later communicated in December through presentation and Shareholders Letter] and we expect 2023 to be a great year! We are already getting wafers back as I have shown in this presentation, and as you're getting the wafers back, you have to work with your other partners, packaging partners and transceivers partners, which means, and I have to be careful here because we are a public company and I have to not step over guidance, that 2023 is going to be an exciting year for us. I hope this answers your question"
So I am in full agreement with you KC, that the work with packaging partnerS and tranceiver partnerS has to be getting close and could very well be made public through publication of a licensing agreement and /or a technology transfer agreement around the time of industry gathering like Photonics West, OFC and/or PIC International in the coming few months!
GLTAL
AR.
Fellow NB/NIOBF investors,
Thank you for upvoting the post on Reddit yesterday, as I believe it was a positive influence:
In 24hrs, we got over 9k views and were upvoted nearly 80% of the votes.
We got several links out of that post.
I will repeat this request when further good news comes out, and we can help extend the size of investors who are exposed to our project and will possibly join us in support of the project.
Stay well,
GLTAL
AR.
Tleprathy, In my view, the company has told us that they are working to expand across three pillars of growth: sales of components, licensing and tech transfers.
When you look at the variety of projects covered by the newly awarded patents in the last couple years, I believe there is plenty of ongoing projects for testing to be ongoing through 2023.
This is not incompatible with the fact that some projects have been initiated with specific partners, starting in 2019, and some of those projects might be the ones coming to fruition in 1H2023.
The fact that the company has confirmed being engaged with over 7 foundries working on PDKs, shows us, if needed, that the company has enough resources to work with several irons in the fire.
Personally, I read the testing thru 2023 as a testament to the claim that the technology has what it takes to provide decades of leadership. The recent hires will only help.
In any case, just IMO
GLTAL
AR.
To all,
Just to get some visibility to the FANTASTIC post from KCC, I just posted it on r/WallstreetBetsElite here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/108ljde/5_sp_to_3eps_in_2025_x_insert_your_multiple_of/
Do not hesitate to upvote to keep the post on top ...
GLTAL,
AR.
With the potential nearing merger and uplist to Nasdaq , for those interested in bringing a little visibility to our project on Reddit, do not hesitate to visit and upvote:
https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetbetsELITE/comments/108l68p/us_critical_metals_and_rare_earth_independance/
GLTAL,
AR.
Sounds like you're going to have to conduct your own research T...
I think it will make you value your findings a little more?!?
But remember, the commercialization clock is ticking with any day that passes. Just like the puts you hold.
Enjoy your research,
GLTAL
AR.
TDA but they're about to move to Schwab...
Hi Richard, Hi gang,
Did you see this new REE map released by USGS?
We’re starting 2023 off on an ambitious note! We have a series of focus areas for #CriticalMinerals across the United States. First up is Rare Earth Elements: https://t.co/D3w5lsMWr5 #Geology #Minerals pic.twitter.com/4Dn9vWFQYd
— USGS Minerals (@USGSMinerals) January 2, 2023
Ted,
This proves their claim of being ubiquitous already: they can work with any configuration the industry wishes to throw at them! Silicon Photonics, Indium Phosphide etc...
It's a good thing!
Enjoy,
GLTAL
AR.
In the meantime in the real world:
... PANEL DISCUSSION: Lessons Learned When Scaling PICs for Volume Production ... 11 am Eastern time, Jan. 12.
Moderated by: Jose Pozo, Optica
Presented by:
Hanjo Rhee, Sicoya GmbH
Claudia Hoessbacher, Polariton Technologies
Michael Lebby, Lightwave Logic
Michael Geiselmann, LIGENTEC
An all-star panel discussion hosted by Optica’s Jose Pozo and featuring experts from the entire PIC value chain to discuss lessons learned when scaling PIC production for volume applications.
Are you saying you know more than "experts from the entire value-chain" and other foundry operators listed above?
Commercialization is starting in the next few quarters. Investors will be rewarded by the company coming exploding guidance.
GLTAL
AR.
If you "missed it" , or just looked the other way, it's not my problem T.
It's been posted by several posters relating to a presentation later this month...
Watch out, the timing might not be good for your option trading...
AR.
Since you seem to have plenty of time, why don't you assemble a seeking the truth panel to assess what people's opinions are about what they feel they could name these 12-month objectives? But remember to be truthful and balanced please, as you always remind all of us you seek to be...
AR.