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I don't really trust any charts on PMs when the like of JPM and HSBC are twiddling with the PM market through HFT and algos. If Gold does go to $2162/2472 will it be because of, or in spite of Elliot Wave.
Elliot Ness might just as usefully have drawn a few charts.
Those Hedge Fund shorts look a bit uncomfortable today.
Events of the last 24 hours suggest to me that demand for gold will once again increase and that vaulted physical metal will see a demand that results in some incidents of delivery default. All IMHO.
Interesting theory by Ted Butler today that JPM have driven the price of gold down to get phizz from GLD and, soon, when they have enough they will drive the price upwards quite strongly. Maybe it's starting around now.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Well last weekend's COT figures have proved to be a little off the mark.....
I don't seek short term trading data as I'm not a short term trader but I find the COTS both interesting and unreliable. They hold the encouraging or sobering possibility of indicating the general direction of things in the coming week, but then invariably disappoint.
I don't see any use for COT reports. They are generally out of date when they reach us and usually prove very unreliable.
Sparky,
it is not the Chinese housewife that is the main story in the gold market,even though the retail market does give us all quick temperature check of the general state of the market.
The big deal is the wholesale market, where sovereign nation purchases are sucking COMEX dry. London is seeing the stock depletion too. The only real question is 'When will COMEX produce its first delivery default?'
When that happens, all faith in the USA's reliability and good faith in the PM market will have evaporated. The German repatriation of 350 tons over seven years means 50 tons per year. 50 tons + is what Dubai imported last month compared to the whole of 2012.
So whey does the Fed need 7 years to repatriate to Germany what Dubai sucks up in one month?
It makes you wonder doesn't it?
I think COMEX is in danger territory as national eastern central banks are continuing to stand for delivery. The lower the Fed orchestrates a JPM smash, the more the East stands for delivery.
'Something's Gotta Give.' Be on eth right side when it happens.
The usual 8.30am smash got some kick back. Somebody is putting up a fight.
Very confusing eh Sparkler?
Some miners must be getting pretty angry about their market prices being frequently reduced in the paper futures market.
I suppose they might have some hedged production but it makes me wonder if the hedging prices might start becoming more attractive than spot or futures. maybe maybe not.
Another way they might hit back a little is use cash resources for on-going production and simply not sell any un-hedged production, until prices improve.
Availability would be reduced and would have its natural economic consequence of driving the market place higher.
All IMHO
India & Chinese Gold Imports.
These new figures today confirm two things:-
1) These two nations are as hungry for gold as we felt they were, given all the various form of information on their consumption going around the blogosphere, and
2) At the current running rate of imports China and India will this year import pretty much the equivalent of a year's planetary new mine-supply of gold.
Add in Russia and you've got demand appearing to be well ahead of supply.
Add in all other consumer nations like Kazakhstan and Turkey to name but two and it becomes very interesting.
I wonder what caused the sudden jolt upwards?
At the moment my best guess is that someone or something was determined that the Futures market would close much higher ,and, as it turned out, the highest since the smash down of 12th April.
But it's only my guess.
Sinclair is at least interesting to read even if not everyone agrees with him.
Sometimes though, he goes off-planet with claims that gold is going to $50,000oz as he did recently.
We are all fans of the stuff, but $50,000 ?
Turk Talk on Barrick:-
Because of various problems, there have been news reports that Barrick is considering what to do with its huge Pascua-Lama deposit after a Chilean court ordered it to stop development work.
The project is already well behind schedule, with big cost overruns from its initial plan, but here's the important point: The market has been expecting that when production begins, the mine would produce 800,000 ounces of gold and 35 million ounces of silver annually. Those ounces will of course never materialize if development work remains suspended.
But also consider that according to its 31 March 2013 financial report, Barrick has hedged 65 million ounces of silver, which is 8% of the world's annual silver production. What is the bullion bank, who sold that hedge to Barrick, going to do if those 65 million ounces don't get mined and delivered to it?
What is Barrick going to do if the bullion bank forces it to deliver physical silver to close the hedge? What are the shorts in silver going to do when they realize that there is a potential time bomb here that could substantially reduce the near-term forecast of silver supply?
In other words, it is pure insanity to be short silver here, and for that matter, gold as well.
Looking at the charts on PM Bull I'm probably not alone in seeing that the sell-algorithms kick in on the hour and half hour marks. More reliable than buses or trains.
Taking all the reports, from as far afield as Dubai,Europe, India China and Kazakhstan, there is no PM available anywhere for Immediate Delivery.
It's ironic that GS is suggesting a short-squeeze may occur on phyz when just three weeks ago they suggested shorting gold. I think they realize now that they got it completely wrong and had to back-track.
Quelque chose méchant cette façon vient comme Deux tiers d'or de JPM Disparaissent Massif 8 tonnes WITHDRAWAWN DE NUIT ! : Aussi 30% DE CNT INVENTAIRES EN ARGENT RETIRES DES COFFRE-FORTS DE COMEX DANS 2 JOURS ! !
Cher Picassa
Il semble que l'inventaire au dépôt de COMEX a réduit fort sur une période courte de temps. Je pense que COMEX peut prendre par défaut bientôt.
Go for it Sparks! I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you!
Just seen the interview on the Keiser Report with Andrew Maguire.
I was glad to see that the question about silver manipulation came up and AM's talk-through of a smash in real time with Bart Chilton. This happened some time ago so the real question was :where are we now as a result?
It was interesting to hear AM say that the investigation was on-going, he knows more than he can let on, and that he wished he could say more. Additionally, and importantly, that the problem was an international one.
So, maybe CFTC isn't such a dog after all. My own personal jury is still out but I have to respect AM's position that the investigation is still very much alive. Interesting times.
As Olivia Newton-John used to say "Let's Get Physical!"
Bob, you say that China bought 71 tons of gold last month.
Or rather Eric Sprott does.
Andrew Maguire's figures come from the LBMA stats and show that China bought 400 tons from March 1st to 12th April.
He also says today that China has bought 1000 tons of gold this year to date.
Andrew Maguie is quoted by KWN today as saying China has imported 1000 tons of gold into the Shanghai Metals Exchange this year. I suspect China will announce gold-backing for the Yuan very soon.
Good luck!
If the Chinese and Russian central banks (and any others) get fed up with the US market, and particularly J P Morgan, Goldman Sachs, HSBC etc, trashing the value of their gold bars they can quite easily demolish the current manipulative structure.
All they have to do is Stand For Delivery, and on an increased and consistent regular basis until London and Comex are stripped bare of solid gold.
When London and Chicago implode, the market place for the world's gold supply can shift quite easily to a more law-abiding place like Shanghai or Hong Kong, or perhaps Frankfurt.
I think the Chinese will want it on their turf and I don't blame them.
I see Jim Sinclair has super-sized his prediction for the POG.
He's gone from $3500 to $50000.
OK, maybe call it gone 'super-nova.'
I can't decide whether he's completely bullish, completely bull/S-ish or completely insane.
Maybe it's me. I dunno.
The CBC documentary was enjoyable but probably people here learned nothing new. Hopefully those unaware will have been shocked.
It was ironic to see Bart Chilton talking of making progress as he put it in the problem of bank manipulation of metals. Especially since the CFTC is part of the Working Group on Financial markets and is thus part of the fraud not investigators of it.
The guy should resign.
From: Joe 9083
I was the first to point out that the Federal Reserve was rigging all markets, not merely bond prices and interest rates, and that the Fed is rigging the bullion market in order to protect the US dollar’s exchange value, which is threatened by the Fed’s quantitative easing. With the Fed adding to the supply of dollars faster than the demand for dollars is increasing, the price or exchange value of the dollar is set up to fall.
A fall in the dollar’s exchange rate would push up import prices and, thereby, domestic inflation, and the Fed would lose control over interest rates. The bond market would collapse and with it the values of debt-related derivatives on the “banks too big too fail” balance sheets. The financial system would be in turmoil, and panic would reign.
Rapidly rising bullion prices were an indication of loss of confidence in the dollar and were signaling a drop in the dollar’s exchange rate. The Fed used naked shorts in the paper gold market to offset the price effect of a rising demand for bullion possession. Short sales that drive down the price trigger stop-loss orders that automatically lead to individual sales of bullion holdings once their loss limits are reached.
According to Andrew Maguire, on Friday, April 12, the Fed’s agents hit the market with 500 tons of naked shorts. Normally, a short is when an investor thinks the price of a stock or commodity is going to fall. He wants to sell the item in advance of the fall, pocket the money, and then buy the item back after it falls in price, thus making money on the short sale. If he doesn’t have the item, he borrows it from someone who does, putting up cash collateral equal to the current market price. Then he sells the item, waits for it to fall in price, buys it back at the lower price and returns it to the owner who returns his collateral. If enough shorts are sold, the result can be to drive down the market price.
A naked short is when the short seller does not have or borrow the item that he shorts, but sells shorts regardless. In the paper gold market, the participants are betting on gold prices and are content with the monetary payment. Therefore, generally, as participants are not interested in taking delivery of the gold, naked shorts do not need to be covered with the physical metal.
In other words, with naked shorts, no physical metal is actually sold.
People ask me how I know that the Fed is rigging the bullion price and seem surprised that anyone would think the Fed and its bullion bank agents would do such a thing, despite the public knowledge that the Fed is rigging the bond market and the banks with the Fed’s knowledge rigged the Libor rate. The answer is that the circumstantial evidence is powerful.
Consider the 500 tons of paper gold sold on Friday. Begin with the question, how many ounces is 500 tons? There are 2,000 pounds to one ton. 500 tons equal 1,000,000 pounds. There are 16 ounces to one pound, which comes to 16 million ounces of short sales on Friday.
Who has 16 million ounces of gold? At the beginning gold price that day of about $1,550, that comes to $24,800,000,000. Who has that kind of money?
What happens when 500 tons of gold sales are dumped on the market at one time or on one day? Correct, it drives the price down. Investors who want to get out of large positions would spread sales out over time so as not to lower their sales proceeds. The sale took gold down by about $73 per ounce. That means the seller or sellers lost up to $73 dollars 16 million times, or $1,168,000,000.
Who can afford to lose that kind of money? Only a central bank that can print it.
I believe that the authorities would like to drive the gold price down further and will, if they can, hit the gold market twice more next week and put gold at $1,400 per ounce or lower. The successive declines could perhaps spook individual holders of physical gold and result in actual net sales of physical gold as people reduced their holdings of the metal.
However, bullion dealer Bill Haynes told kingworldnews.com that last Friday bullion purchasers among the public outpaced sellers by 50 to 1, and that the premiums over the spot price on gold and silver coins are the highest in decades. I myself checked with Gainesville Coins and was told that far more buyers than sellers had responded to the price drop.
Unless the authorities have the actual metal with which to back up the short selling, they could be met with demands for deliveries. Unable to cover the shorts with real metal, the scheme would be exposed.
Do the authorities have the metal with which to cover shorts? I do not know. However, knowledgeable dealers are suspicious. Some think that US physical stocks of gold were used up in sales in efforts to disrupt the rise in the gold price from $272 in December 2000 to $1,900 in 2011. They point to Germany’s recent request that the US return the German gold stored in the US, and to the US government’s reply that it would return the gold piecemeal over seven years. If the US has the gold, why not return it to Germany?
The clear implication is that the US cannot deliver the gold.
Andrew Maguire also reports that foreign central banks, especially China, are loading up on physical gold at the low prices made possible by the short selling. If central banks are using their dollar holdings to purchase bullion at bargain prices, the likely results will be pressure on the dollar’s exchange value and a declining market supply of physical bullion. In other words, by trying to protect the dollar from its quantitative easing policy, the Fed might be hastening the dollar’s demise.
Possibly the Fed fears a dollar crisis or derivative blowup is nearing and is trying to reset the gold/dollar price prior to the outbreak of trouble. If ill winds are forecast, the Fed might feel it is better positioned to deal with crisis if the price of bullion is lower and confidence in bullion as a refuge has been shaken.
In addition to short selling that is clearly intended to drive down the gold price, orchestration is also indicated by the advance announcements this month first from brokerage houses and then from Goldman Sachs that hedge funds and institutional investors would be selling their gold positions. The purpose of these announcements was to encourage individual investors to get out of gold before the big boys did. Does anyone believe that hedge funds and Wall Street would announce their sales in advance so the small fry can get out of gold at a higher price than they do?
If these advanced announcements are not orchestration, what are they?
I see the orchestrated effort to suppress the price of gold and silver as a sign that the authorities are frightened that trouble is brewing that they cannot control unless there is strong confidence in the dollar. Otherwise, what is the point of the heavy short selling and orchestrated announcements of gold sales in advance of the sales?
Another interesting essay on the death throes of the USD Reserve Currency and the rise of the Yuan, which of course will be good for the POG.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/dan-collins/rise-petro-yuan
I doubt that. A conspiracy too far. They bought a half-year supply in six weeks before the attack. I don't think they would have done that knowing they could get it $250 per oz less a day or two later.
I think China and Russia were very happy with JPM and GS keeping the POG at around 1550-1600. That gave them stability for their buying programme.But their assets have been damaged by the POG at 1370.
Vengence is theirs. All IMHO
IMHO,
Asia will buy and stand for delivery.
They will raise the POG overnight and be joined in battle for control of gold during the North American market hours. There may well be great volatility.
If Asia takes delivery it may bust Comex.
I agree with the argument that Russia has suffered a heavy blow from the Cyprus debacle and it will not welcome a second series of blows by GS and JPM naked shorting in order to reduce the value of their growing Gold stocks.
Russia and Chine will get their revenge.
Maguire today :
'I am totally aware that before this take down occurred there was an imminent LBMA default.'
Could it be ABN Amro, as suggested by Max Keiser?
Yes yes ok. We see you have DUST stock. Aren't you so clever..... lol
Repatriation requests will probably start up again.
Sovereign nations will want their gold before China grabs it all.
Tyler Durden reports China imports of around 800 tons of Au in 2012 via HK.
It looks like Chines demand for gold bars this year has gone off the scale.
I think I see what's going on now. (All IMHO)
The huge volumes of phyzz Gold bought by China thuis far this year (as reported by Andy Maguire )indicate to me that they have become increasingly unhappy with the $3.3 trillion in US T-Bonds which they hold and the reducing value thereof thanks to Printmeister Bernank,e and the debasement he is bringing to US debt securities.
The Chinese are thus selling US T-Bonds FX reserves to buy phyzz Au.
The Fed's attempts to control POG play right into China's hands.
JPM and HSBC 's shorting via paper gold has given China a wonderful opportunity to buy all the gold it wants at sale prices.
I'm just now looking for China's imported Au figures for last year to compare them with 2013 ytd. I suspect the rate of purchase will have boomed.
I strongly suspect that China wishes to have gold-backing for the Yuan very soon and trash the USD.
Sorry, I mean 'reduce its influence.'
It seems China has significant increased the amount of Phyz Au that is buying:
Maguire: “Deliveries in Shanghai alone in March were 283 tons. In the eight trading days of April, we have seen another 117 tons (of gold) delivered. Today was another 20 tons delivered. So what we are looking at here is over 400 tons (of gold) in less than a month and a half.
There's one dickens of a battle going on.