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Why should we?
Covid is not going anywhere for another 2-3 years at least.
Vaccines will be ineffective (same as flu vaccines that are only 25-30% effective). So the need for disinfectants will be very high. The worst of course will be this coming winter.
So the company not only should sell tons of product in the following months, but the market might price in the future years profits and drive the stock very high. I wouldn't rule out double digits by next summer.
Will the stock go down when Covid is gone? Of course it will, especially if the stock price would be too high when that happens. The key is to sell before people realize the run is over.
This approach has one big drawback: toxic financing.
While you are waiting for a take off, the stock might go down 90% or 99%. Or both.
It works much better when a company has some earnings so there is no dilution.
Who says compensated?
Someone can buy shares and write an article. Then sell those shares during a run up.
Anyway, I don't know much about the tech they are trying to develop and I have no idea what are the chances of them getting any traction.
But the chart still looks decent and the fact someone squashed that run up to 4 cents a months ago and lack of promotion - gives me some hope someone might be loading up on shares for a much bigger move.
But I am getting impatient.
You seem to know a lot about the tech. Any recommendation? TIA.
That's what has been going on for decades.
I don't remember ever read about any company being accused of any wrong doing when someone posts an article. And so what if the author states he owns the shares? Still people would buy the stock.
And as for the engineering the stock climb: come on? There is some interest in the stock. The only thing they will have to do is to sell a little less shares than there is a demand and the stock will be climbing. And every day there will be more and more demand so they will still be able to sell shares but at higher prices. And nobody would be able to prove they did anything illegal. It is even impossible in theory: Is someone going to prove they did something illegal when the sold only 200,000 shares on a particular day and not 300,000 shares?
The same way they all do.
If the conversion price is tied to the prevailing stock price - it is in the interests of debt holders for the price to have wild swings.
This way they can convert at low prices and sell high.
If the stock is going nowhere - they can only pocket some 20% or whatever discount is. But when the stock goes up and down - they can pocket much more.
Interest in EV is very high right now.
They can pay someone to write an article about this company and its great prospects. They can engineer a steady climb in the stock.
Nothing attracts more traders than a stock that goes up and up and up.
Since they control the selling - they can easily drive this stock to whatever price they want to.
Everyone will be thinking something great is going to happen soon and will be buying the stock.
With TSLA having a 300B market cap, why this company cannot have a $30 mln market cap? Or $300 mln market cap? Maybe their technology is going to revolutionize the EV market?
I am actually surpriced they hasn't done this already since the market looks like in 1999 mode when all the scam stocks did great.
But wouldn't the debt holder be interested in pumping the stock so they could sell more shares at higher prices?
I think they are selling all they can produce.
It became available at Amazon and now it is sold out a week later.
Not much sense spending money on marketing when they cannot supply existing customers. Also not much sense issuing PRs when CEO and his friends might want to buy more shares on the open market.
Let them expand the production capacity first. I am sure the PRs will be coming.
I remember I saw another company selling Silver based solution to be used internally.
Maybe it didn't much sense to pursue this avenue before, but with the Covid - it should be pursued. Of course, they should just supply the SDC and let some pharmaceutical company do all the heavy lifting like testing and marketing. That would be a cherry on the pie.
There was a discussion here some 30 posts ago and posters didn't like someone's statement about PURE revenues going down after COVID is defeated. So I want to add to it. I just could'n find that post I wanted to reply to so I will add my two cents here.
1. Covid will be defeated at some point.
2. I think a vaccine will be as effective as a flu vaccine (not very effective) and unless they develop a miracle drug that will cure it right away - COVID will be a major issue for the next several years.
3. So PURE should be able to grow revenues for many more years. At some point - the revenue growth will slow down, but they should grow while COVID is here.
4. At some point (3 or more years from now) COVID won't be major concern due to herd immunity or available treatment. If by that time PURE has revenues of let's say $100 mln per year - they might suffer revenue decline and I wouldn't want to hold the stock when that happens. If their revenues won't be that big - they might still keep growing it by signing food processing companies.
Now, what I expect should happen in this crazy market.
We just had a normal consolidation with impatient traders couldn't hold it anymore while there are sure winners such as AMZN or TSLA.
Potential buyers are also waiting until they see an uptrend resuming.
We should start an uptrend soon and all those sideline money will be chasing the stock. Not many will be able to buy below $2 when no one will be selling.
I expect the stock to be much higher by year end.
We don't know what their revenues are going to be in this quarter, but I know the CEO was buying a lot of stock at $2 and that tells me something.
Many will depend on how steep their revenue growth is going to be when they announce it in October and the next quarter in December.
If they show good revenues growth - stock will be much higher than it is now. It can be anywhere between $4 and $10 depending on their revenues and market conditions.
I expect COVID second wave (real one , not the one they are talking about now) to be much worse since it will coincide with a regular Flu season. Same as with Flu, not many people are getting sick at summer time, but most everyone is sick in Winter.
November-January should be the worst and I would expect Covid related stocks doing very well.
I would expect the company will be getting a lot of new orders and people will start projecting how big those orders might get in the future years.
At the same time they should be eligible to move to Nasdaq so the robinhood gang will be able to buy it.
So the stars might align (stock and profits are rising, move to Nasdaq, Covid is in the news, new big orders are coming). Many will depend on their ability to expand production capacity. That is a key. A license deal might propel the stock.
My point is, the future might be very good, but in this crazy market that bright future might get priced in this winter or spring. If that happens - I would get out. Of course the next thing they will announce a deal with a pharmaceutical company to use SDC internally and it goes up another 500%.
Market is fundamentally broken.
I am following several very knowledgeable people on Twitter (some of them are guests at CNBC and such) and many of them predicted in April the market would be going up up and up because of all the trillions the FED is printing.
That doesn't make any logical sense when companies earn much less, but this is how market works: stock direction is the only thing that matters. And the talking heads will justify any stock price. Like saying people should focus on how TSLA is going to earn in 2030. Any price can be justified when it is based on a fantasy.
At some point the stock market will crash. We just don't know when that happens. Maybe this year, maybe next year.
I would rather prefer a market that is going nowhere so people start putting money into smaller companies. Market crash will pull all the stocks down. Right now, all the money go to Nifty 5. People are really panicking they are going to miss the mother of all rallies.
The $6400 question is: how many paper contracts were sold over the years with no intention of ever buying physical gold. Even if 5% of paper contract holders will demand delivery - the spot price will double.
Many are listening. Not many are believing.
It is not year 1998 when any PR would cause the stock to go parabolic.
Now it is 'Show me the money' time.
Even if a major company is interested, it would take several years to test this thing before it is implemented.
Do you think it is possible the shorts are the warrant holders that now can exercise them at $2? So they shorted at $3 locking the profits?
This is just my personal opinion, but I don't think they are planning a great business expansion.
I think buying a mill is a good move as long as they don't overpay and don't lose money on that mill. Being able to control bran supply make them a more reliable supplier. When buying from other mills - they are at the mercy of that mill. Which might decide to shut down for a renovation or something at the most inconvenient time for RIBT.
I just hope they don't start investing in another plant until they are profitable.
So they need stock to be at $10 to get money to expand business, but they need an expanded business to justify the $10 price. Is this a chicken/egg dilemma?
Also, don't forget that this run to unload warrants is engineered not by the company. The company would benefit of course if they get extra $30 mln, but that will come with a $200+ market cap valuation which would be difficult to justify for long without major revenue growths.
Will they spend that $30 mln wisely? They might issue new shares to buy the mill in AR - how much would that cost them?
As for China, they already spend $50 mln for Irgovel. How did that turned out? Do you think people will get excited if they decide to invest heavily in another international adventure? Especially in China at the time of the tariff war?
Will see how it plays out. But if the stock is at $10 I am going to get out.
That's the $64000 question.
One thing is to bring the stock to $3 (which is might be viewed as a fair price considering potential profitability next year). But to bring the stock to $10 or so and keep it there to be able to unload 5,000,000 shares - is another story. That would give a company some 200 mln market cap and that would be considered too high considering their business is low margin and is prone to disruptions.
But the overall market condition right now is good, the overall market lost steam and money are looking for smaller stocks to profit. They would buy anything that is going up.
But you never know. If the market has a correction, many traders will bail and the big boys might decide it is not worth it to try to spend $$$ trying to bring it to $10 and will be satisfied with making a killing on $1 and $2 warrants.
The PR states it is 32% increase in available bran, not 3X.
Also, it is usually matters what they manage to sell (and margins) , not the availability of raw materials.
I don't think it is prudent to compare RIBT to other stocks.
It is not uncommon for a stock to go 10X in a short period of time when there is a clear game changing event happened to the company. Like an FDA drug approval, or huge contract, etc.
In RIBT case there is no such clear event. The profitability is at least 2 years away and the growth prospects are not clear at this point, the business is low margin, etc. There is nothing to warrant supper excitement.
I think the run is being engineered by the warrant holders so they could get the warrants in the money and sell them at a profit.
I thought one year holding period for lower capital gain taxes is only for individuals.
It would make sense for the warrant holders to sell the stock and keep the warrant. That would explain the unlimited supply of shares.
I just wonder why wouldn't the seller let the stock price rise couple of pennies a day and hit 52 week's high. That would surely attract even more buyers so they would be able to sell even more shares and at higher prices.
I don't see why someone would be jumping into this stock right now considering they are going to be losing money for another 2 years.
Unless someone speculates they manage to dump their interest in Irgovel and get some $$$ out of it and/or show some progress in growing the US side sooner than planned.
Otherwise this is dead money for at least a year. The $1 should be a solid bottom though considering they have $1 in cash per share and their US business has a potential to become profitable. So we might see $1-1.5 range for quite a while and in a year or so if they show some progress in the US side the stock might start moving.
I am just very skeptical about an unknown company that even Google cannot find their website (if there is any) would be able to guarantee $13 mln in orders or will be able to sell that much of a product.
Such companies usually have websites that google can easily find.
So most likely this is some fly-by-night one man operation and only very naive person and Mr. Berman would believe its 'commitment'.
But Mr. Berman is legally protected by putting the following at the bottom.
Forward-Looking Statements:
This release contains the Company's forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and assumptions as of November 29, 2016, regarding the Company's business and performance, its prospects, current factors, the economy and other future conditions and forecasts of future events, circumstances and results.
Nobody could prove he didn't believe when some south american company with no website promised to buy $13 mln in products.
My point is that I don't know what you were talking about. What $17 mln cotract? Did you see a commitment to buy $17 mln worth of product? No, you didn't. Can the distributor be forced to buy $17 mln worth of product - no he can't. All you have is a wishful thinking followed by a disclaimer that actual results might differ from what we are wishing.
When they show the numbers - then we will see. And there is a 0% chance the results will be anywhere close to $17 mln in revenues.
That would be huge YOY.
Too bad they only have a contract for 40,000 boxes with one of the distributors and 11,000 boxes with another. With no commitment and no orders beyond that except for "if we somehow manage to sell the first batch we might order another one".
Stop this nonsense with $17 mln revenue projection based on a word from some obscure company no one ever heard of.
Logic is very simple. The $12.7 mln bond was supposed to go to the DECN since the J&J appeal failed. So the settlement should be in excess of that $12.7 mln since DECN could've gotten the bond money. Why settle for less of what you can get anyway?
Yes, they were short on capital before the settlement and they put all the settlement money into the legal defense fund. So it is simple logic: short of capital + 0 = short of capital.
Of course they can borrow at 15% annually or issue new shares at 20 cents. With the latter probably being in the works right now judging by the stock behavior. And all this while they supposedly have millions of dollars sitting idle in some fund.
Does not make any sense.
So according to the SA article the company does not have enough capital to produce the strips in any meaningful volume and has ridiculously low revenues of $1 mln per year. And the company finally gets a settlement in excess of $12 mln and is now free to produce and sell the strips to anyone.
But instead of putting the settlement money to work to ramp up the production of its best selling product that people are craving to buy - it stashes all the settlement money away in some fund for some future legal needs.
Just doesn't make any sense. They could've put the money to work and rapidly increase revenues and double and triple the money by the time they will need them. Instead the money will be sitting in a bank earning them 1% annually. Something is not kosher here.
Even if the settlement is confidential, shouldn't we as shareholders know how much money the company has?
Do pink sheets companies have to report what their balance sheet is?
Does it mean the 'healthy sum' should be more than the $12.7 mln?
Logically thinking, if with the latest court ruling DECN was guaranteed to get the bond money and DECN chose to do the settlement instead - would that mean the settlement was greater than the bond amount they were about to get? Otherwise why settle for less than what you are entitled to?
Again, am I missing something here? Maybe the bond was not a sure thing even with this latest ruling?
Also, I understand the stock trades on the pinks and the company is not required to file with the SEC. Which means they might choose not to report how much cash they have on hand and we won't find out about their financial situation any time soon.
Or should the public companies disclose such material events even when trading on pinks?
Thanks.
$12 mln Bond question.
I thought the bond should go to DECN automatically once the J&J appeals are overturned. Isn't the latest ruling was the final one?
Should DECN get the bond money very soon?
What am I missing here?
"At this stage, DECN would like to convey their first act following this embarrassment to J&J. As noted, the court imposed the mandatory posting of a $12.7 million bond related to the injunction. That bond was required to compensate Pharma Tech in the event that the court of appeals overturned the injunction and/or the lower court judge erred in his 2013 rulings. The higher courts have not only reversed the injunction but J&J's basis for seeking the injunction, infringement of the '105 patent, has been routed in the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. The company will quickly and aggressively move to attack that bond and seek the justice that it so clearly deserves. "
I see you are clueless. Walmart is one of the worst customers. They would squeeze every last drop of the blood from their suppliers. My point is if the potential market is $30 bln and the company has enough capital to capture only a fraction of a percent - that means they can sell everything they produce.
So you tell me, if you have a product that costs you $2 per box to make and you can sell everything you can produce - will you sell it at $2.50 to walmart and struggle to produce enough of it or will you sell it to say Walgreens at $5? What is better : to make $.50 profit per box or $2.5 profit?
Of course, if they get $10 mln from J&J - they can sell to everyone, but for it is much better to sell to the highest bidder, not to the lowest.
I thought I made it clear why. I don't say they should not sell to walmart. I said walmart should be the last company they sell to. Why sell to the lowest bidder (walmart) when you can sell all you can produce anyway?
In general, there are two reasons to sell to walmart:
1. You sell everywhere and have extra capital and production capacity and you decide to sell to walmart for much lower margins.
You think whatever profit you make is still better than nothing.
2. No one is buying your product. Of course you will sell to walmart.
My understanding is that DECN does not have neither extra capital nor extra capacity. Which means they should sell first to those who pay more and only after they fill those channels and make some money in the process - it would make sense to expand to lower margin customers.
Why Walmart? Walmart should be the last place they are selling the strips. Everyone knows that walmart demands very low margin from a supplier. For a company with a limited capital and huge potential market which they are unable to serve - why would they want to sell it to the lowest bidder (walmart)? Why not sell it first to those pay more? And only after they are able to meet all the orders from higher margin buyers and have extra capital - then it would make sense to expand to low margin sales to walmart.
Assuming the RIBT US side is finally showing some growth and if they keep growing - the US side revenues might reach $34 mln or so. Which would mean the strategy worked. They made a major blunder with Brazil , but the US side they seem to grow as they promised. With the only exception it took longer than expected, but I wouldn't blame them.
So how is this new proposed CEO is much better? He was in charge of $40 mln in revenues. Not much different than Short who will be in charge of $35 mln in revenues and a pretty impressive growth (assuming there will be growth).
Sorry, but his achievements are not looking impressive to me. I would prefer someone who held higher level positions and have good contacts in the industry. We don't need an innovator as a CEO. The H@N guy (Mark?) is good enough innovator to me. We need someone who can make deals with big companies so they use RIBT products. You can create the best product in the world but no one will use it but if your CEO is a buddy with the CEO of a major company - that major company will be buying a boatload of whatever crap you make.
Good news from Brazil as the president is being impeached.
The analysts expect the real keep rising. If that happens - there won't be any advantage for farmers to export rice and Irgovel might start getting more bran.
Lets see how the currency behaves after yesterdays vote and how Irgovel results reflect that.
So the order shipped in FEB and will be paid a month later.
So only 1 month of better revenues. See the Analysts estimates on Yahoo: the revenue projection for Q1 is only $9.3. But the Q2 is much better at $11.3 and q3 and q4 should be even better.
As for the individual deals, I have no idea. Until I am proven wrong, I think KER deal is just to offload leftovers from other higher margin products and is a low margin deal. So by itself this deal is nothing much, but if they expect to process more bran for human products - then this is good.
As for the organic rice deal, again until I see the numbers , I think this is a niche product. But at least they are going to buy it using the stock valued at $2.8 and then pocket the proceeds - this is a good deal, but how good we don't know.
I liked all of the Short's stories.
Huge demand stories from 2013 and 2014 that would double revenues as soon as they complete Dillon and Irgovel expansions. Cosmetics story from 2014 about huge interest and high margins was very good. All the new customers stories (be it a beer ingredients, Japan customer, Korea customer, etc) he tells us during each and every CC about how those customers will start ordering millions of dollars worth of product very soon. Only to never hear about those customers again but hear about new customers who they recently engaged and who will be placing huge orders soon.
I don't need stories. I want to see growing revenues.
Couple of comments.
There is nothing to suggest the Q1 will be good. Brazil currency was very weak most of the quarter and plus rice mills shut down in January. And they had extra expenses laying off additional Irgovel personal.So the Brazil results will be bad.
As for the US segment we don't know when the big customer started placing big orders. They never tell you complete picture during conference calls. Just bits of info that is misleading. Like in November the revenues were super great in first 6 weeks but dropped suddenly right after the CC. Or like during the march CC they toted good orders from the big customers, but those orders might have lasted for a couple of weeks and started late in the quarter. And I don't even want to pay attention to the new customers - it is always just talk about future potential. I don't care how many new customers they signed if the revenues stays flat. Show me some growing revenues and maybe I will pay attention to all the talk about new customers.
As for the big boys moving in - there are plenty of shares at $1.50. If they wanted to be in RIBT as you suggest - they would've bought everything at $1.50. All I see is that the big boys are selling at $1.50 and small potatoes speculators are buying.
Doesn't it take almost a year to launch a new product? Doesn't it take 6 months to install extruders?
So as per the PR they will be getting an organic bran sometime in June and then it will take them at least 6 months to secure a production order. So q1, 17 is the earliest to see the impact. And as always with this company, the ramp up could be very slow.
But since this deal doesn't make current situation worse (seems like the other company is providing a capital in exchange for the shares) - good for them.
But as long as they keep losing money - no one would care about the future that might or might not be profitable. Especially in this market.
I took your numbers and applied hypothetical p/e.
So $2 mln per quarter would mean $8 mln annual profit ($.50 per share fully diluted) and since the earnings are growing - a higher p/e is warranted. So $.50 per share earnings multiplied by a hypothetical p/e of 36 is $18.