Short term momentum trader.
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I think it's that situation most of the time for most of the stock, and most of us would have the same question if NUGT was
at $35 or $70...because the fear is always there.
But we have to play to have a chance to profit,
so what I do is, if I have sufficient conviction,
I just jump in, but set a tight stop limit.
So I get kicked out about almost 30% to 40% of the time
with small loss, but if it goes my way, I usually make
multiple times more than the stop loss.
So it's a percentage play where I expect to lose about 1/3
of time but win 2/3 of the time, and loss to profit ratio
is 1 to 3...to...1 to 4 or so.
But I don't just randomly jump in, I look for either a
reversal off the intraday bottom/top, or continuation off
the LOD (for short) or HOD (for long).
And if there is significant volatility for the day,
then I also play the short term call/put option as well.
If I didn't indicate the entry (and/or exit),
then I didn't make the purchase and I am merely noting the
performance factor.
That said, 99% of these very short term (expiration within
few days) options are extremely dangerous plays,
and I only play them during the intraday,
meaning I only hold them for minutes and hours.
These (call or put) options with just few days of expiration
will can significant percentage in either direction.
I've been looking for some down time to write a detail
strategy on this...I'll get around to it...
Unfortnately, it's not a question of whether it happens,
it is designed into the fundamentals of this type of ETF
and this has been explained in many articles by experts
which you can easily find by Googling.
Keep in mind that NUGT will lose 7% to 7.5% each month on
Contango erosion, which means if you hold it for 4 months,
value of NUGT will drop by 28% to 30%.
That means, NUGT will have to do better than 30% for you to profit,
which is a tough game. This is worse than any casino game odds.
Therefore, it is best to trade these type of ETFs.
It doesn't have to be day trade, it can span over multiple days
or even few weeks.
But longer you hold, the odds of making profit is severely challenged.
In many aspects of our lives, it pays to have a good patient
character, but applying that goodness to these ETFs
would just about guarantee a failure over longer period.
If your trading style is to buy and hold for long periods
(many months), then shorting NUGT or DUST (depending on the
direction you are guessing) gives you much better chance.
As an example, if you think NUGT is going to soar eventually,
then the better play is to short DUST, that way you get the
Contango erosion gain plus the loss in value gain when
DUST drops.
Just my 2 cents...because I'm bit concern about you may
wanting to hold it for lengthy period, and I want you to
clearly understand the lower odds that you are betting on.
Good luck.
I totally agree that it could run more,
but it'll pull back just as dramatically.
Therefore, I'll be looking for reversal point
and instead of DUST,
I'm going to look at DUST call options and/or NUGT put options.
$TRIT...blasting off!!! CHeck it out.
Dust Oct Put option up 1500% today!!!
This is NOT gold rally starting...in my opinion.
It's just a pure manipulation.
Could it run up some more...sure...
But in the near term, gold is headed downward in my opinion.
Though it's nice to see this up/down volatility,
as it gives traders lots of plays.
GLTA
GDX Oct 19 call options up whopping 600+%
Diaz83, there you go. Nice pop you've waited for.
For your sake, I hope it does spike high so that you can recoup
the loss and then some.
That'll set a good stage for shorting it down again.
But I know many longs been stuck with high PPS,
so I'm rooting for you guys to recover some loss here....
What I've been noticing...
In the past few months, when majority of the market thinks
gold should sell off, BOOM...gold makes a big bounce,
and when market thinks gold should spike, BOOM...comes a sell off.
These are very carefully timed big money manipulation.
For high average NUGT long holders, I do hope that you can get
you bounce to $70+ just for few days, so that you can recoup
and maybe even profit a little bit.
But for me, whenever NUGT bounces in counter to what market
believes, it may actually good time to short NUGT or long DUST.
Not trying to screw anyone...cuz I want everyone to profit
because most of trade in both directions at times,
so many of us aren't just one sided die hard trader.
Best wishes...
55% shares are short. Incredible.
JCP is still pressured downward, but a bit of good news
can set off a mega short squeeze for 2-3 days.
So I'm longer shorting, and I'm looking to pick up
little bit of leap call options.
Probably drop to $29 or lower this week.
No secret that UVXY was going to tumble.
Could see 52 week low.
Looks like deal is close.
NUGT could tumble a bit here if that happens.
$LLEN breaking out. Geo Investing is silent.
Geo Investing blew this one. LLEN should rebound to $2 at least.
Wow, I feel for you. I've had more than few of these in my life.
I'll be frank. Here is the problem,
NUGT is not like a blue chip stock that
that you can hold with patience.
The erosion alone is designed to wipe out ~90% of the value.
Sometimes, when I'm in that situation, I simply sell first,
walk away for a moment to cool off some steam,
and then see if that's the best investment I can do for that money.
In most cases, once I sell, I feel relieved and I tend to
move on to the better trade for that money.
We men are taught to be tough and endure pain
because it presents you as a good character and
draws good karma to your life.
But in stock trading, we have to be overly sensitive
and have little tolerance for pain...because the punishment
is too harsh.
Alternatively, you can sell call options to offset the Contango
erosion but dealing with option trading adds more complication.
As for short term volatility over government default,
the actual interest payment due is on Nov 15, so even if
these morons in congress do not pass something by Oct 17,
I don't thinks there will be big drop in stock market and
big spike in gold. But if they don't resolve it by Nov 15,
we could potentially see gold shoot up to $70+.
But that's a long shot, and these morons will come through with
something either by Oct 17 or latest by Nov 15.
Its not a thought, but rather a fact. :)
I was quite dumbfounded when I first learned of it.
Its quite easy to see this over a longer period of time.
In mid October 2012, GDX was ~$54, and NUGT was ~$850
meaning NUGT was ~16 times higher in PPS.
As of today, GDX is ~$24 and NUGT is ~$42
meaning NUGT is only ~2 times higher in PPS.
If there was no Contango,
NUGT should have been $24 x 16 = ~$384.
That means, $342 (or ~90% value) was lost to Contango.
Now I'm using rounded up numbers for illustration purposes
but you are looking at essentially about 7% to 7.5%
erosion in NUGT PPS each months.
For quick flippers within days, this isn't that much and
you can ignore it. But those that buy and hold NUGT and DUST
for weeks and months, this is something you MUST be aware of.
If you are going to buy and hold NUGT or DUST...
Its actually better to short NUGT than to long DUST
if you think NUGT will go down.
And its better to short DUST rather than long NUGT
if you think NUGT will go up.
Sounds confusing as hell, but its really simple concept
once you get over the shock of learning this chaotic erosion.
I'm not going to claim to be expert on this matter as I was a
student to few on iHub who's mastered this and shared
their valuable insight.
Its a shock to many new ETF investors, but due to the nature of
how these ETFs are created, the value is designed to decay.
Even if the underlying gold mining stocks for NUGT were to stay
completely same for next 12 months, NUGT will decay in value.
Go read up on Contango effect on ETFs.
This is not just NUGT, but it effect many ETFs in a similar way.
Yup, pretty much NUGT bounces have been short lived recently
Default could take NUGT back above $100 in a heartbeat.
Which also could be a perfect time to switch to DUST.
On target to hit $7...or lower...as many predicted.
Yup, the default would take it way over 1400, and possibly even over 1500.
But likely they will pull something together at the last minute.
FDA Investigation is very good for ARIA.
Market has mostly priced in the worst scenario.
If FDA finds lesser concern situation that can be remedied
such as by adjusting the dosage and frequency,
the stock will soar.
Love to see GeoInvesting finally get crushed!!!
Go LLEN
What's same is possible blood clot issue in some patients that are sensitive to the drug.
What's not same is government investigation.
Right now, ARIA is punished for the worst outcome.
It could fall more, but I think the upside risk/reward
is pretty good at low $4s.
I.e., ARIA could tank to let's say $3 or even $2 or about 50% from here.
But the upside on any new positive findings such as lower dosage
being more safe and lift on FDA hold, could shoot this up to $15 to $20 for 400% to 500% gain.
I like this type of of risk/reward.
But you may have to hold for a period for this to develop
as company needs to come up with some remedy plan.
You might even wait past today for ARIA to settle in price.
Right now, aggressive shorts are doing all out attack.
Dang, just missed the buy at the low.
Dang, dang, dang...
Order set @4(3k) @4.10(2K).
Bring it down baby...I'll scoop 'em up near low $4s.
Could this go 100% gain today!
That was a big smack on the face to GeoInvesting today.
+++++++++++ LLEN making serious run!!!! ++++++++++++++
Stubborn me. Finally kicked out at $42 with small profit.
Had I sold earlier at $44, I am sure (wink wink) that nuggie
would've exploded to $50s...as it often seems to happen to
positions that I sell.
What a great day in market...though I'm walking away with
only few hundred bucks. I was bit out of rhythm today.
Let's see what tomorrow brings us.
Big money that manipulates gold has shifted to stock market today,
so gold and nuggie are not seeing much movement today.
Still sitting on a small profit, but quite disappointed at
it going into hibernation between $43 and $44 range.
My $42 stop limit is still protecting me on the down side,
but this doesn't help on overnight gap downs,
so I may dump it sometime before the close of AH.
On a side note, the SPY call option that I mentions is now
up 1400% from when I pointed it out yesterday.
Too bad, I didn't stick to my own advice. Yikes...
That's basically a brand new BMW that I missed. LOL
Haha...like to dream about these things happenings...
but I do it with a stop limit so it doesn't punish too much! LOL
Nuggie staying near high side so I like to see it pop to $48 where I have my sell order placed at.
Hopefully, it hits while I'm out during lunch,
so I don't muck with changing the sell order.
C'mon Nuggie, run to $48 and make my day!
Yup, markets happy, and even after following and trading this darn
nuggie actively for past 6 months, its still baffling as to what
makes it move.
I'm sure physical gold, dollar, big market, economy news, QE, etc. all effects gold, but its so random, and I know quite frequently
its heavily manipulated up and down without any clear substance.
I picked up $42 and then $41 this morning...thought about selling
when it hit $43, but I like market being up big, so I' thinking
it can do the mid-day breakout to upper $40s.
Got stop limit set at $42, so I'm locked in for at least small profit.
GL
SPY 111 Oct 11 Call option that I mentioned yesterday to consider
has gone from .10 to .20 by yesterday's close, and hit .69 cents just minutes ago.
That's a whopping 700% gain in about few trading hours.
I sold out way too soon.
NUGT hit the low range of my prediction for the day,
and now let's hit the high range of $48...please!!!
Market futures up big, Gold seeing some bounce
Assuming market holds most of the gain,
I am predicting $42 to $48 trading range for Nuggie.
Hang tight folks. Should see $10 at least in the coming days/weeks.
This was a free gift to traders.