Short term momentum trader.
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Gold hits 1164. Could flirt with 1150 next week.
JNUG -36%, NUGT -26%
Gold @1175. JNUG down 30%, NUGT only 20%...
Could this continue to tank into Monday, particularly if
Swiss Gold Referendum votes "NO"?
Too early to reverse? Thinking JNUG is headed to $3.30 today or Monday.
JDST back to $25+ next week?
NUTG printed $12.95, and JNUG hit 4.01.
I wonder if Asia is smashing the gold down while US is in holiday
period with only Junior traders working part time today?
We are are +-25% reversal on these 3x funds today.
Gold hit 1177 overnight???
It doesn't show on the chart, but that's the low recorded on Kitco.
NUGT is trading near the lower range of $14 to $17 range that it held
for over a week in pre-market this morning.
If it falls under and close below $14...$14 may turn into resistance.
After Swiss Gold Referendum confirms "no" vote, I don't see any other near term factors that significantly spike gold.
I still maintain bear bias on gold into first Q1 or Q2 of 2015...though
there will always be up/down volatility along the way.
If gold tanks below $1150 level in coming few weeks, JDST should see $25+.
Gold tanking down to 1180 level tonight, could JDST get 20+% bounce
in the morning??
Gold tanking from $1200 level to $1180 level tonight.
I suspected all along that they may sink it before sharply reversing it
back up for Swiss Gold Referendum.
If NUGT/JNUG tanks big in pre-market or at open, I may load up for
reversal flip.
USD generally dictates gold/oil direction, but sometimes they diverge completely, and who can explain why??? Guess only god knows. LOL
I agree for now...but we still have Thursday and Friday for gold to make moves.
Latest Swiss Gold Referendum Poll
About 38% in favor, 47% against it, and 15% no answer/undecided..
Not overwhelming numbers, but likely "no" unless undecided
votes go heavily vote "yes".
http://snbchf.com/gold/swiss-gold-referendum-latest-news/
http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-11-19/Latest-Poll-Shows-Swiss-Gold-Referendum-Doesnt-Have-Enough-Support-To-Pass.html
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102220345
LOL...one would think.
At some point, even shorts have to buy to cover.
Until then, I'm sure that we still have lots of up and down actions left
in gold before it marches back up.
Big money tends to swing to opposite before doing whiplash reversal,
so I wouldn't be surprised that if they intend to pop it on Friday,
they may sinking it real fast to shake loose longs and wipe out stop
limits, before reversing it sharply.
I'm mentally ready for these scenarios...
But then again, Friday being short trading day, just after the holiday,
it could be quiet trading day.
We shall see...
Happy Turkey Day!
I was expecting some Swiss Gold vote pop, but so far it's nil.
Wondering if that's going to happen on Friday?
I'm ready to short (JDST/DUST) if it does pop on Friday
because so far polls are showing it ain't passing.
Hmm...Dollar and gold funds are both falling???
...while gold is mostly going sideways???
Kind of interesting...
Hello Dr. Yes, the game is improving, and yes sometimes I think about
selling naked options and continuously rolling them over to the next month,
to gain on double erosion from the ETFs and options.
But for now, I enjoy the short term excitement mostly.
NUGT range bound to $14 to $17 for 7 trading days, and prior to that it was range bound to $10 to $14 area for about 10 trading days.
Right now, gold seems to like $1190 to $1200 range.
According to the polls on Kitco news I read last night,
some 97% of traders are bearish on gold!
So, is gold bound to go down some more?
Or does that mean all shorts have shorted already, and gold can only go up from here?
That's the million dollar question... LOL
Don't forget the Nov. 30th Swiss Gold Referendum, which may create temporary bounce on Friday or Monday, but since latest poll doesn't
support it, I'm sure any bounce will be short lived.
How long can this market just go up and up???
Any pullback rebounds quickly.
I've equally play call and put options in recent weeks, and as you might
have guessed, put options have been largely wiped out, but call options
have paid out nicely over and over again.
Crazy as it may feel, I think SPY will reach 210 level this week.
Yes, I've been seeing this illogical moves...and I'm guessing there's lots of manipulation going on with gold and dollar markets.
Yup, decaying value is the challenge for these ETFs in the long run, so trying to time something that's few months out is really fighting a dual battle at once.
That's interesting because recently I've been mostly reading about how money has been constantly flowing out of gold funds.
1230 is one good rally away, so I can see the possibility during this
up/down volatility.
However, over 6 to 9 months, I think gold will mostly go sideways to downwards until it finds solid bottom.
The worst case scenario is called at $800, and I can see reasonable chance
to reach $1,000 if dollar continues to rise.
That said, both Europe and Asia are actively looking at lowering rates
and/or doing more QEs...and that can help to boost their economy and
neutralize dollar's strength some.
However, if gold does reach or fall below $1,000, I will start to
accumulate some healthy (?) gold mine stocks and leap options.
Amen to that. Both sides of gold ETFs will erode in value over long period of time. One can just look at both (NUGT/DUST, JNUG/JDST) charts and can verify that easily.
These ETFs are designed to "trade" in short term cycles, rather than long term investment.
Therefore, the worst investment choice you can make with these ETFs are to buy and simply hold for long time.
Guessing gold bottoms in first half in 2015.
I believe the stage is set for dollar strength, until Europe and Asia's economy improves.
In the meanwhile, looks like we will have lots of up/down volatility within sideways trend.
JDST on its way back above $30 in few days and could find new recent high as gold tumbles in coming weeks/months.
Look here for 3 day overlapping gold chart.
Gold trades pretty much 24 hours around the world, except on the weekend.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Real time Gold chart
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
Real time USD chart
http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-advanced-chart
I'll add more DUST/JDST positions if overnight...
1) dollar rose but gold didn't fall
2) gold fell but NUGT/JNUG didn't fall
3) gold ETF rises without gold rising or dollar dropping
Opposite is if true for JDST/JNUG.
CNBC: Why now is a great time to sell gold
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/why-now-is-a-great-time-to-sell-gold-223319350.html
I sold 1/2 of JDST at close and holding 1/2 overnight.
I chased and missed the morning rise,
but picked it up on mid-day drop at 14.80.
If gold tanks overnight,
I may double up in pre-market tomorrow.
Simple. US dollar is standard currency for trading commodities, including gold.
And many commodities, like precious metals and oil, tend to trade inverse to USD.
World economy is getting weaker but US economy is getting stronger,
so dollar has been rising in virtually straight line for nearly 18 months
and this is pattern is expected to continue into good part of 2015.
Add to that, US is expected to raise interest rates, while other countries are fumbling with lowering rates or doing more QE stimulus plans, which
further attracts USD over other currencies.
In fact many countries like Japan and Europe are trying to devalue
their currency in hopes of improving their export business profits.
The only things that can spike gold at this point are:
1) Major global economic crisis
2) Major geopolitical crisis
3) Major Ebola like crisis
4) Massive increase in gold demand
5) Or...strong economic recovery in Europe and Asia, which will happen eventually but that's about 12 to 24 months out in my opinion.
So gold is likely going to test the lows in coming months,
I think it will hit $1,000 or lower before finding THE bottom.
We haven't seen THE capitulation like drop with super massive volume but that's coming, and that's when you want to go ALL IN.
Hope you are not talking about NUGT?
With dollar going up and gold tanking,
yes, JDST has very good chance to get to $30 again by next week.
Expecting hard selling of NUGT/JNUG into the close and continue tomorrow.
That's my bet. It was a bear trap ahead of the FOMC minutes,
and we are back to finding new lows.
Dollar soars and Gold tanks...as expected.
No big surprise here.
It comes down to "WHEN" and not "IF" on when the rates may be increased,
so it's not going to give gold much room for bounce.
The probability much high on dollar gaining and gold tanking in my opinion.
Gold drop $20 in few minutes like it fell off a cliff. LOL
I speculated all along that with strong dollar and gold being flat, these gold ETFs had no legs to hold up the value.
I think we are in for a strong reversal.
I'm really anxious to see a huge gold capitulation one of these days so that I can go ALL IN for huge reversal off the bottom.
Again TSLA retracts near $260 level.
This is the level TSLA can't breakthrough and stay above.
It's very reliable short/put option play at this level.
Could see 3x ETFs do +- 30% reversal today.