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Large percentage move
on bashers. I'm going to give you clowns the best advice you've ever gotten:
1. Review my TARM road trip, verbage, pictures, and even a Bob Seger tune: http://www.myspace.com/cl99cl
2. Cover those shorts, you're not going to enjoy what happens to you, when this project and some of the others go into production.
C L
simplification ----------------------
I received 2 emails asking me to clarify what I put up on the myspace site.
In the simplest terms, the mill takes the rocks and turns them into powder, removes the valuable metals and discards the rest.
Metals are heavier than the surrounding rocks and dirt, so about 35% of total metals are re-covered on the gravity tables. Then chemicals are added to the remainder, the metals attach to the chemicals, compressed air is blown up thru the solution and the contained metals "float" and are scrapped off the top.
C L
The myspace site ---------------------------------------------
is now finished, The verbage is there, along with all the pics, including 4 of the Ramon head ore. We even have Bob Seger music, all thanks to my friend AlaskaJeannie, she's a genius.
http://www.myspace.com/cl99cl
As far as the sell-off goes, I expected it. When there are delays, the short-term players tend to bail in a hurry. I've been in the stock for over 5 years, so it's just more patience needed, IMO.
Once the financials are finished and the cash flow begins, along with more news releases, I think we'll do quite well.
I'll be around for a few more days and then will be gone for weeks for the OMNI AGM in Louisiana. If you like the petro sector, have a look at the stock:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=OMNI
Great management and an aggressive BoD, they had some legal problems, stock got crushed and it's just starting to get on a roll again.
Thanks for the kind words from all of you and best of luck to you, with all of your investments.
C L
More from my notes ---------------------------------------
While at the motel in Choix, I talked to 2 guys from "Major Drilling de Mexico" This is a contract drilling co., works for anybody that hires them, they have 55 rigs running in Mexico. One of the guys was a mech, the other a roughneck driller. They are getting gold shows in most of the holes they are punching in the Choix area. This bodes well for more attention to the area.
The Chinese just bought out a large copper deposit, think it was from Tyler Resources. They are going to spend $700,000,000 to bring this project on-line. It's about 15 miles from our mill site.
I brought a large rock sample back from just inside the main portico. I'm no geologist, but it's the strangest looking rock I've ever seen. It runs from white to a very dark gray and has a lot of shiny flakes in it, probably quartz.. I'm going to shoot some pics of it and get them up onto the myspace site, hopefully tonite.
About Rich: He's a lot like me, down to earth and plain as a mud fence. Seems to have a good understanding of mining and has proved to me that he can make something out of nearly nothing. He took $30,000 and turned it into a winner.
On TM trading: The corporate attorney has to furnish a blanket legal opinion and send that to the transfer agent, along with a copy of the SB-2 filing. Then the agent has Rich verify each cert, then they issue new certs, without the 144 legend. They mail it to the S H, he signs and mails it to his/her broker. When the broker has it, then it can start to trade. Probably take 2-3 weeks to get it trading. Ameritrade now shows a bid of 10K shares @ 20 cents, but it can't trade until the cert clearing process is finished.
C L
Additional data, corrections, and pics ---------------------
My note taking is scrambled so I hope I get it all this time.
Add to equipment on site:
D-6 Cat with dozer blade
Fork lift - probably 2 ton capacity
Corrections:
Mill site is 27 acres, not 5 acres
'Drill analysis' should have read 'sample analysis' - the drilled holes were small and shallow
There are 2 each 6 X 6 ball mills and one each 4.5 X 6
Mine site:
The mining is hard rock, drill and blast. Mining will be pillar and room style
Deposit is flat lying "manto" type deposit with 25 meter exposed width
The primary crusher circuit and screener could handle about 1,200/ton/day. So, by upsizing ball mills, gravity tables, and additional flotation cells, the throughput could be in that 1200 ton range/day
I'm not very computer literate, but I managed to get the pics up with a public URL and most of them have captions underneath:
http://www.myspace.com/cl99cl
Below the picture, click on the hypertext "view my pics"
C L
Tara Site Visit ---------------------------------------------
Seven other Tara S H and I have just returned from the Don Ramon mine and mill site in Mexico. The mill is located approximately 25 kilometres ESE from the town of Choix, Sinaloa State, Mexico. This is about 520 miles South of Nogales, AZ.
Besides the investors, present were the CEO - Rich, Ramiro Ledezma the Mexico jaffe, his son Ramiro Jr, and the TM mining engineer. We were an hour late getting into Choix, so we missed the 2 geologists. John Brownlee was scheduled to be there, but had a delay getting out of Denver, so we missed being able to talk with him.
We all went to the mill site and then the Ramon mine site. Most of this post will be about the mill site, as there was little noteworthy about the mine site. The mine site is about 5 linear miles from the mill, on a twisty inclined road.
The following are my observations and should not be used to make ANY investment decisions:
The mill site is about 5 acres and was purchased for it's proximity to the roads and the Mexican power grid. A 33000 volt primary line runs right thru one edge of the property, so it's ideally located. The secondary voltage is 460 Volt AC 3 phase. There will be 3 secondary drops to the site, primarily for plant expansion and back-up. I've not had time to calc the 'Total Connected Load', so I'll estimate it at about 1200 H P. The property has gradient, so some gravity feed advantage will be gained.
The mill was engineered to process 300 ton/day, operating 2 X 12 hour shifts, 25 days/month. Total throughput approx 7500 ton/month. The major equipment is all in place. Remaining tasks are electrical and plumbing hook-ups, some of the conveyor systems and a plant laboratory..
Work process flow, as follows:
Contractors deliver the head ore to mill site and unload. The ore is to be delivered no larger than 16" rock. Front end loaders dump the ore into a large steel bin. It exits the bin onto a conveyor and moves into a 36" jaw crusher. Exits the jaw crusher (50 HP) by conveyor to a large Nordberg vibrating screen deck sized for 3/8" minus. Conveyor belt to the cone crusher (100 HP). Conveyor moves the 3/8 minus to one of 3 different circuits, leading to one of 3 ball mills. One is 6 X 6 and the other 2 are 4 1/2 X 6, probably about 100 HP each. Exiting the ball mills, the ore is about 120 mesh. Gravity feed to 3 concentrating wave tables. Next step is to one of 3 flotation cells, where it is concentrated further, using different chemicals for Pb, Zn, and Ag. After concentration is finished, the cons will be delivered to the buyer, using 40 ton low-boys pulled by large diesel rigs.
To increase the mill throughput, they can easily go larger on the ball mills, as that will be the bottle-neck. The entire mill layout was done so that larger equipment or more of it can be added.
They started mill construction on Jan 2nd and I think they have done a great job, getting it this close to operation in less than 5 months. I'm very impressed with the people and what they have accomplished, especially in what amounts to a fairly remote location.
I observed the following equipment on the site:
Large backhoe with 1 yard front bucket
One yard front end loader
A Robex 160 LCD-7 tracked hoe
12 yard, 20 ton dumptruck
2 ea. motorized welders
Asst. construction equipt.
After observing the 2 sites, we returned to the Tara office in Choix and watched a slide show of expected grades and some projected #'s for gross proceeds, costs, and bottom line projections. They have done a lot of drill analysis and are satisfied that they have a very high tonnage deposit to work from.
The following #'s are from the Nov '06 news release and I think are probably representative of their present projections:
Sample # Ag (grams) Pb (%) Zn (%)
R31-1 772.0 5.50
R31-2 426.0 10.65 23.45
R36-3 1,426.0 20.16 27.34
R46-4 484.0 28.0
R46-6 0.436 2.34 13.98
R49-7 238.0 1.25 7.22
R56-9 340.0 2.20 11.20
R56-10 629.0 7.80 23.80
R56-11 244.0 1.92 8.60
R62-12 435.0 4.75 8.66
R62-13 408.0 2.77 10.34
R62-14 403.0 7.70 48.10
R70-15 66.0 2.23 4.55
R87-16 667.0 10.70 16.11
R87-17 356.0 3.0 6.78
R87-18 388.0 4.30 9.15
R87-19 683.0 4.73 11.90
R125-25 493.0 3.40 14.33
R125-26 942.0 8.80 36.94
R125-27 247.0 1.77 7.18
R125-28 599.0 2.79 10.20
R125-29 714.0 9.29 39.84
R125-30 256.0 1.69 7.17
R125-31 292.0 1.62 8.64
R125-32 357.0 3.61 10.82
R125-33 493.0 5.95 24.41
I heard some very large #'s being contemplated, but I'll leave it with what they have publicly released. I've crunched some #'s myself, and I think putting a million$/month to the bottom line will be easily doable. Using that figure - that's about 30 cents/share/year net profit. If we were to get a 10 P/E, makes for a $3 share price.
The following is my opinion only - I think the mill will be operational in about 6 weeks. I have a fairly large position in T M, and couldn't be more pleased with the way things are developing with this project.
I have some pictures with no way to put them up in public. If you want to email me, I'll send some of them to you:
CL99CL@yahoo.com
Might take a few days, if the demand is heavy. Rich plans some news releases and some of these pics will be put up on the TM web-site, as his time allows.
C L
Watch CNBC for close on April 7th.
OMNI management will be ringing the closing bell. They will have 2 days of meetings with analysts/fund managers in NY. This should start drawing some attention - sorely nedded.
C L
It's on the website.
C L
Not much action here
as you can see.
C L
Everybody gone to sleep?
The volume is nothing to get excited about, but the drill program is proving up a very large resource body. Expect they will put the whole works up for sale once they have it defined.
C L
Maybe so, we will
see on Tuesday, I expect. Usually the market builds the future in, so this may already be part of the $ movement. I thought it interesting that the $ strengthened, when Kohn and Bernanke pretty much telegraphed what was coming.
C L
The recent registration:
I sent J Pritchard an email this morning asking him about this filing. Here's his reply:
---------------------
"These shares were first placed earlier in 2007 and in 2006. Most of them have already been eligible for sale. This was just a revision with the SEC."
---------------------
So, much (or all) of this stock may have already been sold out into the market. If you remember, we turned huge volume days when the stock was in the 40 to 50 cent range. If the market is still worried about this situation, they are misguided.
C L
---------------------
VP Investor Relations
Capital Gold Corporation
76 Beaver Street, 14th Floor
New York, NY 10005
212.344.2785
www.capitalgoldcorp.com
Au chart is excellent,
popped right back up thru the 10 and 20 d ema:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p65973244149
C L
Mexican Producer
Capital Gold has a heap leach project in Sonora, Mexico. They stated producing Au and Ag in July. Listed on Nasdaq as CGLD and on the Toronto as CGC. They are predicting 50K oz/Au in their first year and about 35K oz/Ag.
They are scaling up with a new leach area and production equip., predicting 100K ozs Au in the second year with about the same in Ag.
I worked the #'s on this and think they will have bottom line of 6 to 8 cents for their first year.
They are 43-101 compliant and have just upgraded their resource calcs. There are some pics and a great video on their web-site:
www.capitalgoldcorp.com.
Stock just made a large % move and is now correcting.
C L
OT stockguy
I don't go on that board anymore. Would you email me please at: CL99CL@yahoo.com
C L
O T - stockguy
Were you bashing a short??
C L
The indicators I watch
are all looking good. So far, they can't even get it down to the 20 d ema:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p82389885386
C L
Nice rebound today,
The euro / precious metals corrections, may be over with. Typical of bull corrections, short and nasty.
C L
Hey, I hope you're
right. I really like it when they stop going down and return to the uptrend. I bought an additional 20K at .81, if I had any dry powder, I'd be buying some more.
Had a scary experience with OMNI yesterday, it got down to where I was going to get a margin call and then reversed. When the market is crashing, they start selling everything.
C L
I posted this on Yahoo board:
Rule of thumb on a correction (consolidation) is that the stock is still in a bull phase if:
It corrects 50% or less of the recent move. Looking at the chart, we see it didn't trade much above 85 cents. I would say the move was from from 45 to 85, so it moved 40 cents. Subract 20 cents from 85 cents and you get 65 cents.
So, IMO, it needs to CLOSE twice below 65 cents before you would call it in a bear phase. If that happens, then it needs to build a new base at whatever level it goes down to.
Once again, the whole market is down big and the miners are trading down with them.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p29519602390
C L
Here's my #'s
I've had to work these out three times, because of new info.
Basic facts:
Interest rates on the $12.5 mil loan are LIBOR + 4% = 8.35% = $1,0440,000/year (rounded.)
Hedging costs are $35/oz/Au for 32,000 oz/year = $1,120,000/year. When they pay this to the bank, then they can sell all the production at spot.
The video on the website says they are "producing Au at the rate of 50K/oz/year now."
Ag production is .726 X Au production - from recent company release. So that would be 36,300 oz/silver/year.
Cash costs for Au are $280/oz. This includes labor and all other costs at the mine site.
I'm putting the interest charges into "other overhead", which includes management salaries, office lease, utilities, insurance, legal, accounting, advertising, travel, and asst. I estimate that total at $4,000,000/year.
I'm using $700 for Au and $13 for Ag sales prices. #'s will be easy to rework for higher selling prices.
Receipts:
50K/oz Au = $35 mil
36.3K/oz Ag = $472K (rounded)
Total receipts = $35,472,000
Expenses:
Cash costs = $14,000,000
Hedging = $1,120,000
Other overhead = $4,000,000
Total expenses = $19,120,000
Net profit = $16,352,000 divided by 192,528,688 F D shares
= 8 cents to the bottom line.
Pick your P/E - should be at least 20 for a growing operation, gives $1.60 stock price. If the PM's continue to run higher, P/E's of the miners will rise, along with net profits.
Feel free to point out mistakes/ommisions.
C L
I think we'll
see more consolidation for awhile, however you never know at what level. The story is so good and it's so under-valued, it may not pull back much.
Today, it looks like the miners are following the overall market, even when the PM's were up, they sold the mining stocks.
C L
In case you
didn't know about it, there's a board on Yahoo for CGLD, that has more posters. It's pretty civilized, only one short:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/CGLD.OB
C L
Good luck to
all you guys.. There are some knowledgable posters here.
One of the moderators saw fit to delete my post for trashing a short, so I won't be back. When someone sees fit to abridge constitutional rights, who knows what's next.
C L
I had email
exchange with Pritchard on Saturday. IMO, it was way too hard for the average investor to go thru the filings and do all the math to get to the F D #. He agreed and put it on the website.
Can't tell you how pleased I am that a public company officer would do email exchange on the weekend, to clear up a SH's concerns.
C L
silver 44
You might want to update your #'s - correct ones are:
Current Shares Outstanding: 174,243,646
Fully Diluted Shares: 192,528,688
C L
tarafan
You have some good points there and I'm sure you're a nice guy.
However, I'll repeat what I said - anybody buying stocks MUST learn how to do their own DD and not listen to others. To not follow, at least those basic tenets, dooms them to failure in the markets. This equity market is not for lazy or lucky people. This is a hard business and you have to be sharp or you will lose your hinnie. If this was easy, there wouldn't be any cops, electicians, or postal workers.
The only other way out is to glom onto someone that knows what he's doing and follow them. I don't recommend that as the smart ones will tell you when to get in and not when to sell.
I'm not trying to be a jerk here, I want to see everybody succeed (except the shorts), I'm just stating the obvious - learn what you are doing. You should spend one hour per week, for each stock you hold, doing constant DD. Stay on top of it, things change
C L
PZG gets Italian fund buyer:
Press Release Source: Paramount Gold and Silver Corp.
Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. Announces $2.4 Million Private Placement
Wednesday November 7, 2:15 pm ET
OTTAWA, ONTARIO--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 7, 2007 -- Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. (Toronto:PZG-TO.TO - News)(AMEX:PZG - News)(Frankfurt:P6G.F - News)(WKN: A0HGKQ) is pleased to announce a US$2.4 Million private placement financing of restricted stock at US$2.40 per unit. Each unit is comprised of one share of restricted common stock and one common share purchase warrant ("Unit"). Each warrant is exercisable to acquire one common share at an exercise price of US$3.25 for a period of two years. The Units were subscribed by Fondi Anima of Milan, Italy, in reliance upon exemptions from registration and prospectus requirements of applicable securities legislation. Anima is the Number 1 Italian fund management company in terms of assets under management and number of clients, managing over $11 billion Euros in assets. Westmount Capital of Geneva, Switzerland, brokered this Private Placement, and was paid a 6% commission. The financing is conditional upon American Stock Exchange and TSX approval.
Paramount will use the funds to continue its drill program in Mexico, and to acquire additional advanced stage gold/silver properties.
Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. is listed on the AMEX and TSX under the symbol PZG and on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under the symbol P6G (WKN: A0HGKQ). Paramount Gold is a precious metals mining exploration company, presently in the early stages of an extensive exploration program at their San Miguel project, located in the Guazapares Mining District of Mexico, part of the Sierra Madre Occidental gold-silver belt. Paramount has completed over 20,000 meters of drilling in its current 50,000 meter program. Results are pending on the last 34 drill holes. In March 2007, Paramount completed a $21.8 million financing which is being utilized to develop their San Miguel project and other opportunities.
The whole situation
is explained in TRGD and PZG fed filings. That's the purpose of those filings, sworn statemets from the managements.
Why don't you read those filings?? That's where you get accurate info.
C L
RSI got over 90
today. Might see it trade sideways awhile, altho the P M's are going crazy tonite.
C L
Wow, gold hit
$832 a few minutes ago, what a run.
C L
TARA has 90 days to
pay invoices, hence they just sent the payment.
This is my last post to you, you're not paying attention..
C L
Here's a start for you
Mr. Francis Biscan Jr., President of Tara Gold Resources, stated, "San Miguel continues to meet or exceed our expectations and is developing into a significant property for Tara Gold shareholders. Our monetary participation begins October 25, 2007 and we are prepared to maintain our 30% interest."
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/071004/0310933.html
For the complte picture, read PZG fed filings. If you don't know how to find a fed filing, you have no business being in the stock market.
C L
Hmmmm,
since TARA's filings are not up to date, easiest place to read it is either old press releases or PZG fed filings. Trust me, that's a fact.
C L
Where's what from??
C L
Starting about 3 months ago
TARA pays 30% of the development costs going forward, to retain our 30% of the project. The first payment has been made and will average about $200,000/month.
C L
Review my post
on the technical situation:
The stock moved up 60% in 5 days.
It's held over 50% of those gains and did not close below 65 cents. The picture is still bullish. Each stock moves in a different way.
C L
TARA's J/V
partners don't have any silver to sell - yet.. The market is starting to pay attention to some of the Mexican miners, our time will come.
C L
Very good,
--PRO 0.840 +0.130 -- maybe somebody thinks their drill hole analysis will be good. If it's like the rest of the properties down there, it should be a winner.
C L
Good, the more of
them that perform, the more attention it draws to the area.
C L