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Jas, thanks for the SHM update... Very exciting times and a reasonable explanation for the pushout of "potential" finalized sales wins for Wave. My only concern is the fact that Steven would even mention "expected account closures" in a quarterly CC? Especially considering his past history of failed predictions relating to new business on hand? Why does he continue to demonstrate this level of CEO immaturity relative to putting his credibility on the line with said predictions that may or may not pan out? Not to mention, he continues to give timeframes on his predictions that further produces negative exposure when deadlines are not met or come to fruition? Then to add insult to injury, he backpeddles and attempts to reason with shareholders so they understand why the company didn't execute on closing the business within predicted timeframes (blaming the potential customer is a felony). Anybody who knows sales knows NOTHING is closed until the final contract is signed. I'm a big Wave and SKS supporter but I'm also a realist. Somebody needs to let him know it's ok to simply share the facts of the business and let shareholders decide for themselves what they think about those facts. If the company is legit and will succeed then let it happen. The "hyping the company" phase was over a long time ago and SKS did a great sales job during that era. He needs to now become a legitimate leader of a legitimate company. Credibility of the CEO is critical at this point in Wave's history (if possible). He needs to put more effort in the credibility area of his leadership at this point than in getting shareholders juiced about their investment. He can only do that by doing what he says he'll do every single time. J
A bigtime announcement for a future bigtime company... Jeff
Just checking in....
Haven't posted for awhile and haven't followed the details much either for quite some time.
At first glance it looks like the revenue and profit runway will be extended for a minute. Not sure about the hockey stick trajectory at this point. I highly doubt we'll see many investments in the near future with such upside otherwise. Not sure how relative that's as it relates to the world market in general?!
I would say that one's money spent on this investment (looking through goggles of the present) will eventually (short term 1-2 years) pay in spades. Said that 10 years ago too:)
Anyway, hello to all the Wavoids and wishing them the best that one's future investment vision may bring. Salud! J
I hear all of that dude.... The reality though is that SPNG is doing what it takes to get to big investment dollars. The fact of the matter is that the stock will become unaffordable to just ANYBODY once listed on the NAZ between $10 and $15. This stock will be exposed to big international and institutional money that will be looking at strictly fundemental financials and will have the money to invest (not so much anybody with a few sheckles to invest). The other fundemental fact to consider is that SPNG will become a much more attractive acquisition play as it relates to the float and overall share price. I believe the SPNG leadership team spoke of their intent to potentially sell to the likes of Procter and Gamble at some point in time (3-5 years). In the long term, this will be a big opportunity for any shareholder who invests before September 22nd (no personal intention on that pump). If you consider the revenue and profit growth then I think the long term may be a shorter term reality..... Good luck and I'll see you on the beach bro.... Jeff
The reality of your logic is correct in the short term... If you're a short term investor than you're correct in your logic. If you're long in this investment then you need to look at the fundamental financials and you'll see that it's just a matter of time before this stock generates tremendous growth in share price. Time is relative for all of us. Short and long is relative. I have to point out that 70 mil rev with a 20% profit and no long term debt = just a matter of time. Probably a shorter timeframe than later. JMO of course.
Great dialog yesterday CM. I think you hit the nail on the head. Patent expiration dates sure come to mind as I read your thoughts. Maybe the reason for the dragging feet? But lets not forget about the passive aggressive behavior of Intel over the years as it has related to Trusted Computing. Was it because big brother was giving little brother the stink eye when bounderies were being tested? Collaboration? I dont know but the term WINTEL is ringing in my head all over again.... Gotta love Dell. Thanks again for your thoughts. Jeff
Weby, the best response I've seen relating to the lack of sales execution. Makes me personally ponder your words and relax a bit on my original takes on this issue. Thanks for your words. Jeff
Not a big number at this point in time? Just double the number and go figure. Not gonna move the needle dramatically either way in terms of the share price. A penny here and penny there.... Nobody invested in this play would care either way IMO. Jeff
So being a straight up dude.... My thoughts were BS.... BE pushed to Q2 (maybe beyond) and my thoughts were way over zealous.... Who's keeping track other than me?! I think that Wave still spent for needs (up for debate) but the economy kicked them in the arse like the rest of the business world in terms of revenue (pc oem sales). Ni Importa! Another quarter of upward trend IMO. Jeff
Dude, the cost % is all dependant upon service and licensing revenues.... You have to consider that PC sales were nearly cut by more than a 1/4% in Q1 due to the economy. Licensing business is based soley on pc oem sales. Service revenue is based on new business and existing upgrade business..... Of course, I cried about the economy being a licensing revenue factor for Wave two quarters ago with push back.... But then again, here we are and no matter.... The problem I have with your projection is that you're projecting based on "cost" rather than projected "revenue".... Unfortunately, SKS has not clearly projected revenue for us shareholders. I would stick my neck out at this juncture and project flat licensing pc sales from the pc oem's according to a "seasonal" Q2 trend coupled with a minimal upgrade rate. I would project the low end of your projection of 5.1 million for revenue and ultimate BE based on your cost numbers. Pretty simple numbers unless you throw a government contract announcement into the mix which I just so happen to believe will happen in July. CM, I'm open to some public trashing here..... Jeff
C'mon???
SKS has been claiming the industry (industry = an entire customer base or market) "just doesn't get it concerning TPM's" over and over and over..... If that isn't blaming the perspective customers for failure to sell to said perspective customers then I dont know what the term "excuse" means. Jeff
CM, I'm a business guy and sales is one aspect of what I do... I've closed multi million dollar deals and multi hundred dollar deals. I know the larger accounts are 180 degrees different from the smaller acounts. I agree with your take on the multi million dollar deals. We can both agree on your points. BUT, Wave has PROVEN they could direct sell small to medium size business which they have shown over a year now. That business adds up to BE in a hurry. I believe Wave lost an entire year of sales opportunity having the same mindset you are expressing in your posts by elephant hunting and making excuses to the shareholder that the elephants are huddled together and wont budge. I'm happy Wave finally got moving on building a sales team and hitting the pavement to sell some small and medium sized accounts to pay the bills. Build some sales momentum and learn how to sell product to prepare for some wandering elephants. The heard will eventually follow as I think we both believe will happen. Wave has a superior and cost reducing product. No excuses for not prospering today and in the future. You either sell and grow or you die. Business 101. Wave's success solely rely's on Waves sales efforts at this point. No more excuses. I continue to bet they win. Jeff
Snackman: I can tell you the health care industry is one of the very few industries not yet impacted from the economy. I met with a few of the top KP folks a month ago and they are predicting maybe a minimal economic impact in 2011. My hospital and clinic business is thriving. I believe the IT dollars are available in the health care industry whereas most other industries are struggling financially as we all know. . Jeff
Good morning Micro!
Let me ellaborate a little on my original business 101 thought:
- Cutting expenses stagnates a business (many businessmen can appreciate that fact right about now)
- No commitments to BE in Q4 only Q1
- IF SKS knows he has "business in hand" (lol) that will bring the company to BE in Q1 then why stagnate the business any further with cost reductions?
- With nearly a doubling of revenues Qtr over Qtr... Will Wave investors be more pleased with doubling revenues or with reaching BE merely due to SKS cutting his qtrly expense rate in half with a more minimal volume increase?
- Maybe your contention is why not double the revenue, cut the cost and post some actual profit growth for Q1? If so, what would be the net variance on the share price if SKS came through on both intiatives? I thought of that originally and then I realized we're talking about a million maybe two million dollars here? Maybe not a good reason to hold off on other more proactive intiatives of the business like selling for Q2?
I know you'll laugh when you read this next thought... I have to laugh at myself for having this thought after all these years... What if we're finally staring at a doubling of revenues every quarter from here on out? Our expense rate will actually begin to grow to support the new business?
Talk to you later Micro! Have a great Saturday. Jeff
Amen. Based on current expenses we may have a doubling of revenues quarter over quarter. We'll see... Jeff
What if....
The revenues for Q1 are sizing up to be much better than orginally expected? Well above BE even considering the current quarterly expense rate? Why continue to reduce expenses just because Steven said he would? Jeff
Raising a drink to all the longs in 2009. Happy new year! Jeff
Barge, The love comes from Kevin Rollins. No doubt about it... Jeff
Tampa stated he would sell in small increments. Hopefully, he'll be ok. He deserves to win as much as anyone. Jeff
Thanks everybody! Just curious. Jeff
No. Do you have an answer? I'm trying to verify and hear some insight if any. I think Hardjono leaving would be a significant event? Jeff
Any thoughts on the "if and why" Thomas Hardjono left Wave to go to MIT Kerberos?? Jeff
So true Chowder... I'm as stoked as ever about Wave. But one has to be concerned otherwise. Payable debt and delisting is a concern for most. We have to be respectful of those facts right now. A big play requires big sacrifice and I think the perfect storm has finally arrived. I'm happy to see the end one damn way or another. Happy holidays Chowda. Jeff
Is there any doubt?? Nice find CS. Jeff
That's funny....
5% reality and 95% fodder. Just looking at the numbers of course. Gotta love resume's. Jeff
C'mon... Do you really think there's any company out there who really cares at this point???? Be serious man. No way any company cares about Waves numbers, strengths or weakneses right now. Jeff
Exactly how do you propose Wave will be clobbered? I dont see it from a technical standpoint. Help me here Trust.... Jeff
The introduction of MacAfee into the FDE space is the best piece of news I've read in long time. More marketing dollars towards evangelizing FDE. Only upside for Wave IMO.
I just picked up another 4K today at .32.... Great buying day to say the least! Jeff
Great article Mundo... We dont talk enough about the "cost benefits" virtualization and Wave tools provide. Selling as an "investment" and speaking to the benefits of "cost reduction" in this economic environment is powerful. Most companies are doing everything they can to reduce cost and survive. Especially the mid to small range companies. If there was ever a time for Wave to succeed it would be right about now. Jeff
"Country General Manager Microsoft Pakistan, Kamal Ahmed, addressed the gathering and emphasized the need and benefits of virtualization to Pakistani businesses. He said, “The virtualization tools and solutions aim to enhance the business competencies of a corporation as a whole. This translates as creating win-win solutions for businesses fortifying their on-premise and off-premise IT infrastructure and allows businesses to effectively deal with their resource limitations. The virtualization technology is an investment that enables capacity building and installs a sound IT Infrastructure allowing firms to enjoy a more flexible and synergized business and IT structure”."
Expert Systems also commented, “Recent advancements across multiple layers of Virtualization have taken the entire industry by storm. Server consolidation is enabling efficient utilization of multi-core processors, significantly saving costs. Virtualization technology has made dynamic scalability practical.
Barge, I have to agree with you.... One of the only viable buyers for TV tonic would be Microsoft. One could argue NBC would be another interested company. Take a look at the long standing partnership between Microsoft and NBC over the years? MSNBC. I just dont understand the hype about any percieved lack of future financing and whether Wave will go BK? Even with the current credit crunch. There are ways for partners to get money to Wave. I think most us agree the technology Wave offers is critical to the partners current and future product offerings. I'm pretty sure Intel Capital can afford a measily 5 million a quarter until VPRO begins to generate revenues for Wave to stand on it's own feet financially.
You say SKS does head fakes quite often. I believe the sale of WXP is yet another share holder "carrot" being dangled over head to keep the peace. Jeff
Could it be Intel's Proteus??
http://technologyexpert.blogspot.com/2008/03/intels-proteus-security-software-to.html
Intel's Proteus Security Software to Protect by Learning "You"
The problem with a lot of security software is reliance on signatures to detect malware. If the malware is new, it may bypass the security software. Intel, specifically researchers at Intel Research Berkeley, are working on a project called Proteus which will learn your behavior and detect intrusions based on statistical modeling.
Proteus uses several algorithms to tailor protection based on the habits of a user. For example, the type of security software use by most IT departments has one trigger that looks at Internet traffic from a PC, sending an alarm when a preset threshold is met. A heavy downloader might trigger that alarm accidentally.
The first algorithm uses standard statistical and machine-learning techniques to monitor a person's Internet use and create individualized traffic thresholds, which should prevent false positives. A second algorithm tracks Internet use changes throughout the day since most people, if using a work laptop, will have a different Internet use profile when home than when at work.
A final algorithm monitors "calling home" activities for regularity. Such activities are frequently used to coordinate botnets.
Nina Taft, one of the researchers involved in the project, indicated that Intel is interested in getting as much of this security into hardware as possible.
"Intel is interested in getting as much [security] into hardware as possible. It's a good use of [processing] cores, and when things are in hardware, they're harder to tamper with."
While Intel has already tried the system with 350 years, and is looking for a wider test deployment, of Symantec or McAfee stock needn't panic. Intel believes no one security solution can protect against all possible intrusions. It's just this sort of redundancy behind my use of both antivirus and anti-Trojan programs on my systems.
"There are so many different ways to break in," Taft said. "One will need many security checks on a computer."
But the optimist list keeps shrinking? Just look at the share price.... When it's all said and done, we might see 12 "Wave Systems" optimists to 23K pessimists. You work the numbers but the ratios will be quite uneven when it's all said and done. Then again, that ratio looks remarkably like the difference between the rich and the poor? Maybe we're onto something here? Just peaking in for a moment on a Friday night. Jeff
Ramsey, two kinds of sales... Channel sales (revenue nirvana) and direct sales. Wave's original plan (still continues to a major degree)was to focus and RELY on channel sales. Quite frankly a failure thus far (we'll let the numbers do the talking). The sales lead ramp up from channel partners IS growing BUT Wave must still close directly?! Hence, a DIRECT SALE off a channel partner sales lead... History has proven (other than Papa Gino's) that Wave is not strong at generating their own leads and closing them.
The problem is that share holders were told and led to believe that the market demand would initiate channel sales which would grow the company (exponentially) and would equate to low OI as a result of nearly immediate sales cycles. Has not happened.
Not blaming anybody for missing the mark on the channel sales opportunity. Steven had me at hello with the technoloy he was vending. But please dont insult my intelligence with the lack of response to the importance of closing business DIRECTLY to merely stay in business (a year ago) when the channel never produced???? Didn't happen and now we're giving credit to the sales team when they're still not generating their own sales leads? When they have an invite to meet with an IT Manager (thank you Dell) with an already expressed interest and level of undertanding of the technology? Just to get them to a (probably free) evaluation phase 1?? C'mon.... Please wait to give credit when we're all making money from a good sales action plan. In the meantime, the sales team sucks. A sales team that is saying "give me a name and a phone number of a person who actually wants to meet with me and has an understanding of what we are selling"... I'll give him a free evaluation to validate my product and "when he's ready"... Then and only then will I close the business.
The above scenario hardly demands appreciation from the Wave sales team. Sales is sales. Closing business through a channel gimme or a direct sale equates to revenue generation. Wave is and has not done either "quick enough" pursuant upon the current circumstances. jeff
Good morning Ramsey. I wouldn't be suprised to see this investment finally take off in the very near future with some big contracts made public. In turn, I wouldn't be suprised to see this drag out another year with incremental revenue growth qtr over qtr. What would completely suprise me is if Wave went BK LOL. Enjoy your Sunday. Jeff
No doubt about that Snackman. I forgot to add to my post that the one caveat to this blowing up would be a government contract made public. Thanks for the reminder. Jeff
Ramsey: No doubt Wave's pipeline is growing. A good sign that Wave will BE (one of these quarters). But when one projects revenue... Then revenue trending is critical. You can't project based on "this should happen because...". Steven has tried that approach in his rookie days. He has learned to stop doing that now. Thank goodness for us all. If you take the current QTR over QTR revenue growth trend then we're looking at Q2 2009 for BE IMO. That's including the E series rollout. I'm sure you'll take a stab at that statement:).
You continue to talk FDE and ERAS when projecting but for all anybody truly knows... This product will not truly ramp up for ? months, quarters or years? Seagate can live with an extended ramp up trend for FDE. So can Hitachi. They can well afford too. So will Wave at the expense of the shareholders or some long term debt. But to project on a paradigm shifting technology in the HD space with Wave being the second or third tier benefactor is not appropriate at this time IMO. Would have been appropriate if the FDE and ERAS numbers blew our minds last quarter. The numbers dissappointed and clearly told us all this technology would take time. I'm with you on the "potential" but unless the FDE and ERAS numbers blow our mind next quarter then the trend will be what it will be.
The already installed base of TPM's may never be turned on in the PC refresh cycles of today? Let me give you a real case scenario... I have a long standing business relationship with two seperate sourcing managers for two seperate BH divisions (extreemely security sensitive). Both divisions are solely Dell customers. These guy's know everything about IT spending. The budget was recently set for fiscal 2009 and I can tell you TPM activation, FDE or ERAS were not in the budget (limited knowledge of hardware security?). I ask these questions of the people who should know the answers and they STILL are not convinced of hardware security? Big companies mind you. I can easily add 20 other major companies to the list with the same story.
I find your projecting to be granular based on expectation rather than "what is". "At some point....the number of monthly activations WILL reach a point that will translate into significant revenues.'. Internet is right IMO. But the speculation thrown around here is worthless (not that I've not been guilty of doing same in the past). Bets have been placed but the actual revenue trend should be the defining basis for projecting revenue and BE moving forward. I say that because Wave's entire product mix is in the market (for sale) my long time friend? In the past we could project on prodcuts to be deployed... The products have been deployed and the trend is the trend.
Hope life finds you and yours healthy and happy. Jeff
Catching up on posts over the last ? weeks... I couldn't have said this better myself. Refreshing to see somebody post who has obviously made it happen in the open market. Going back and reading all your posts... Jeff
The most realistic post I've read in years and with an action plan mind you? Option 2 and 3 are no brainers and should be executed immediately by Wave. Tampa, you obviously know the realities of what it takes to be succesful in the market and business in general. I hope SKS is reading your posts. Jeff
Been away for quite some time myself... I would have to agree that "this looks like an imposter" . Think I'll take some more time out and hope the .46 was just a bad nightmare:) Jeff