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Well just a quick response ...Baker Bros et al are not always right ...chk what happened to their large position in KOD a few years ago ...actually Feb 2022.....amounted to a $1b loss ( from memory )
Kiwi
Nope ...early days ...still has to complete P 3 / pivotal trial .
Think of Amarins Marine trial ....years before the R-IT results
Kiwi
PS. weren't you the one advocating buying Co's in P2 or early P3 trials :--)
OT so I hope the board / moderators don't mind me sharing .
My wife has IgAN kidney disease patients ....and yes she has prescribed Vascepa for some of her stage 3 CKD patients .
There now appears to be a functional cure for IgAN
Member Level
Re: None
VERA. I have been building a position in VERA since their KOL day and this announcement
https://ir.veratx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-therapeutics-presents-positive-72-week-data-showing-egfr.
They appear to have a functional cure for IgAN ( as in maintaining eGFR / kidney function ) where as all other drugs for this disease merely slow the rate of decline.
Currently anyone diagnosed with IgAN kidney disease in their 40's or earlier will need a new kidney or end up on dialysis at some point in their remaining life time .
VERA's drug appears to be the first to change that.
A lot of data thru 2024
JMO
Kiwi
RMB. for what its worth ...both stocks I mentioned are now "technically " over bought ...so some pull back near term is likely
jmo
Kiwi
RMB. EWTX up 21 % in past week. ( since your post )
VERA ,,,which I think U saw me posting on at the AUPH board ...up 28%
Both I think at 52 wk highs
Usually I find it best to initiate small positions ...follow ..and then if the data still looks good , add on a pullback due to some unrelated event .
Both of these Co's have a lot of data coming out in 2024
Kiwi
VERA. iwfal thx for taking a look at this .
Re adverse events ...dose related ?
Seems very well tolerated in the lower / medium doses in the IgAN trials , from the data I've looked at .
Kiwi
OLMA. up 18% on the following news
Agree it's a balancing act . Maintain cash on hand , try and keep PPS above $1 and get EU sales going .
Kiwi
VKTX
VKTX. Mufaso ..I think their P2 13 wk obesity trial ends next week . Buyout rumors abound
Any thoughts on the rumors or the trial ?
Kiwi
Ceo did say sales were off to a strong start in Spain . Why do you think they are losing $ selling old inventory ... they are selling it for 1c less than what the generics are charging and the generics aren't losing $ on their GV sales are they ?
Kiwi
Tat No it means as stated ... Ralphey had the view that AMRN mgt thought the R-IT trial would fail
Re commercial success
If the R-IT risk reduction had been confirmed by an independent trial ( even just one on a sub group like US diabetics with recent PCI / stent ) and Dr Nissen had blessed the results of both trials , AND AMRN had retained all their patents .......then yes PPS would have been a lot higher.
IF the above had happened ...AMRN would have continued to fund sales growth in the US and Germany would have reimbursed because of independent confirming trial .
The point of the post ....No one ( including myself ) are right all the time ...even half the time ...and certainly not Ralphey
Kiwi
Thx Dew I know the bull case for VERA and EWTX .....would be interested in the bear case ( beside the obvious ...failed trials etc ) if anyone would like to opine .
EWTX's data looks the best IMHO since MYOK ( haven't followed CYTK closely )
VERA ...wife has CKD patients with IgAN ...their data looks best for preserving eGFR ( kidney function ) ...based on recent data release.
Kiwi
Ps. " screaming into a void "...just a journalistic " hook " ...hope U don't mind :--)
An oldie but a goodie from Ralphey ( no one is right all the time :--)
EWTX ..screaming into the void part 2 :--)
Best data I've seen since MYOK ...which you may remember Dew ..bt by BMS I think
Lot of data in 2024 on Beckers ( fast tracked , no approved med ), Duchenne and early data on HCM
Anyone else following this Co ?
Kiwi
VERA. ...Once again ...Has anyone besides myself looked at the clinical data to date on this Co ( and ALPN )
Am I screaming into a void ...or just politely being ignored :--)
Kiwi
Raphey. your post from early Nov 23
WT. re
Jess. My wife's hands are not tied by her employer . She has no problem prescribing generic meds .
When it comes to Brand CKD drugs she often faces difficulty getting the drug for her patient because the insurers set up PA ( prior approval ) hurdles. ie document your patient has failed on all these drugs ...MMF , Benny etc ( as example ) first . Then if the brand drug is finally approved , the patient copay is often so high they can't afford it anyway . ...exception being when the drug manufacturer has programs in place to assist the patients ...usually in the first year or two of launch,
Kiwi
Laurent ... thx for following ACC for us .
Re ...efficacy on MACE . The other study you referenced was on 6 mth data ?? ..so the most they are likely to have is 12 mth data ?...can you clarify .
The earlier study noted higher degrees of Afib and bleeding than seen in R-IT ...?
Kiwi
Laurent ...Wow. thx ...at last some Real World Evidence from the VA
Kiwi
Well thats easy ( flip the switch on ) ---lower the price ....at least lower than Benlysta ...or do you really think it's the MD's and not the insurers / payors who decide who gets the expensive Brand meds .
Kiwi
Z. Well I hope his wife is not a Nephrologist .
Nephrologists and their PA's treating dialysis patients deal with very difficult situations .
My wife , because of her experience , is considered " point of the spear ". Roughly 1 of her ( 120 ) dialysis patients dies every 2 weeks ...tough to deal with even tho she prescribes the best meds that the insurers agree to cover
Kiwi
And can we get charts with that ...volcanoes and ice lines are optional
Kiwi
WT. are U referring to this ?
“Today’s finding that hematuria – clinical evidence of active nephritis – resolves in the majority of patients receiving atacicept, supports an additional therapeutic benefit of targeting the source of this disease through atacicept’s dual inhibition of BAFF and APRIL,
By the way ...thx for the informed / well researched presentation of your views
Kiwi
VERA capital raise
WT. from ChatGPT
APLN and VERA .....Lot happening in the Kidney disease space . Suggest those interested chk out the recent presentations of these two.
I favor APLN ( but am biased as I have a small position in Co ) however VERA is further along .
These Co's are the closest I've seen to KDNY ( which I owned ) that was BT out recently
Kiwi
PS ,,, and once again ...EWTX anyone ?
Jess. My wife knows of 2 patients with LN on Lupy .
I'm not neutral on Lupy ( the drug )
It works .....to rapidly lower high levels of proteinuria and allows aggressive lowering of Steriods . ( patients hate the Steriods )
I'm neutral on the long term business prospects of AUPH ...for reasons I've detailed before
JMO
Kiwi
Jess. I think I posted that the termination of NVS's trial with Cosenrtyx was a plus for AUPH ...removed near term potential competition .
Don't think I was a huge fan of Benlysta ...other being less expensive and insurers might want Nephrologist's to try first .
Lupy has 2 advantages ...rapid lowering of proteinuria and the ability to taper Steriods faster than other meds.
I'm not negative on AUPH ...I'm neutral due to the recent results for the other LN or LN related drugs in development.
Kiwi
poster jfmcrr on this board has a lot of experience I believe with OmgeiaVia EPA 500...suggest U chk in with him .
Good luck
Kiwi
Their IgaN data looks as goos as VERA's ...just a year or two behind
Kiwi
Guss ...If unable to get Vascepa ..consider Omega Via EPA 500 . I ( and at least 1 other here ) took it for years before getting a V script
Good luck
Kiwi
WT Suggest you chk the drugs in development for IgaN as at least one Co I know has a LN P 3 trial ready to go another is I think is in P2 trials.
The data so far may be better than Lupy's .
Probably at least 3 yrs until either of these has an approved new LN drug ....however AUPH won't de making a profit until 2nd half 2024 ......and then possible face competition from a new drug approved for both IgaN and LN two and a half years later .
If U want to know the others Co's ask me on another board
Good luck
Kiwi
Lem. good to see U posting again .
No one is right all the time . However some traders will act on technical signals ...Josh Brown on CNBC for instance
A trader like him would be inclined to buy AMRN if it closed above $1.30 on heavy volume ...and hold until the RSI was above 80.
Using technicals is just one consideration.
What to buy or sell is usually a fundamental analysis .
When to buy or sell is often based on a technical analysis
Be well
kiwi
O ....simple technicals would be ....not over brought yet at an RSI of 66.
If it closes above the recent high of roughly $1.29 ....indicates trend reversal to higher ground .
Congrats to all those who ignored poster Ralphey at .80c
Kiwi
WT I agree with a lot of what you post. I just don't think the market will be as large as you think .
CKD patients are usually dealing with multiple issues , diabetes , heart disease , high blood pressure , high potassium or phosphorous etc that reduces their life expectancy well before their need for dialysis
WT. You make some good pts.
AUPH seems active in attracting a BO offer . So since Otsuka has EU rights and Germany ( the largest market there ) won't pay for Lupy, NVS ( big in the EU ) wouldn't be interested .
So who do you see ( if anyone ) buying this Co.
I'm familiar with ICER . Shows Vascepa ( which I'm prescribed ) to be very cost effective ...doesnt mean they are selling a lot of it ( brand or generic ) in the US or EU .
Re ARDX ...keep an eye on UNCY . Wife already prescribes Fosrenol ...UNCY's version has advantages of a drug she already prescribes ...so easy for patient transition if their pivotal trial reads out positive , mid year 2024 .
If you have time , chk it out and let me know what U think . A lot of smart bio hedge funds now own about a 1/3rd of the Co .
Thx for the detailed , informed , debate
Kiwi