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good update. i hadn't been able to get a handle on the state of the flooring pour, or possibly the lack thereof, so thanx.
the webcam to date has been showing views to the east, looking from the trailer/office perspective towards the northeast corner of the mill floor work. In the distance, a road can be seen that leads to the earth pile; that pile, which is what resulted from all the dirt from road grading excavation and tailings storage lot excavation being dumped, is on the horizon in most views.
the tailings pile is behind the camera, to the west of the camera; i don't believe it has been shown yet on the webcam. by comparison, the dirt pile in view just beyond the mill floor work area is, to my understanding, just an excavation pile from the mill floor's base.
If you guys would like a diversion from the arguing with upsidedown, try going over to the company website; the webcam is operational.
Right now you can see a feed that is looking toward the east, with the landfill mound at the horizon. In the foreground is work underway for the mill's floor structure. The mill floor itself is out of view now, it is off to the right of the screen.
wtxpa, my view is that downsideup is posting as he does ultimately from a sense of embarassment, meaning that certain 'things' didn't work out right for him at Silver Falcon, and rather than manning up about it and moving on, he remains, and finds an outlet in posting his quite lengthy but curious posts. Hopefully he'll find a way to let this thing go, and move on to something that he can find fulfilling in some way. he really is a very intelligent and well meaning man, and again i hope he can find a way to put that to use somewhere (else).
that's about all that can be said here without getting more specific.
Colonel, I've been an professional aviator for over forty years now, but no, in all that time I have never seen a pig fly. My basic understanding there is that their lift to drag ratio is quite low, they have very little inherent stability in all three axes, as a whole they seem to have little desire to work on that task, and they have no way of providing internally derived thrust, so they therefore can not fly. I never made it past the rank of Captain in the Air Force though, so I'd definitely defer to your greater standing on this question.
Well, Remorafish, I've been invested here since before this minining company was a mining company, when it went by the name of Dicut, and so no, there's no need to exort me to "slow down", as it were. Since I've been long here for a long time, it really doesn't matter to me whether my expectation of crushing testing in late November proves accurate or whether the tests start in early December. The main point here is that this company is going operational, not merely putting out p/rs for the hell of it. And the management and some others here, like me, aren't investing a _lot_ of money in this project for the hell of it either. So all I can do here is represent to you what my understanding of the timetable is, based on lots of conversations and lots of onsite visits; I also make no effort and have no expectation of being your 'buddy'.
That said, look for a slab pour early Nov, building delivery 13 Nov or so, milling equipment being placed on the slab prior to the building being assembled overhead. That allows for startup of testing in late November. Again, this is probably more detail than is really necessary to get into, the main point is that this project is a real deal.
It is my expectation that the first crushing (test runs perhaps, but crushing nonetheless) will happen in late November. So no, I kid you not.
The security of the mill site (which will be behind fencing btw) will have more to do with prevention of general vandalism as compared to outright theft of tailings. The only entity for whom those tailings have value is the company itself; to haul those tailings away in the back of the truck of some thief/whomever would be a waste of time and energy on their part....the only way the tailings provide value is to mill them at large tonnage/day.
I still don't believe that the marketplace has assigned to SFMI anywhere near the value of the ore in those piles. I suspect that we'll get to hear a lot more about the various assays of the initial tailings pile as we approach the first crushing ops next month, and if you do some arithmetic at home using .5, 1.0, or even 1.5 oz Au equivalent per ton, and couple it with an eventual 600 to 800 tons/day, you'll come up with some pretty nice potential pps numbers.
The on site camera's primary purpose is for security, monitoring the site over the years of operations, whereas the access of those images for investor curiosity is a secondary purpose. The feed of the info was to have been through a microwave link the last time I asked about it.
Dude. Don't fight it anymore. Buy some stock here, get Long. You'll feel so much better about yourself.
A nice contrast here is that, politically, the folks in Murphy seem eager for Silver Falcon to set up shop there, whereas the folks in Melba, well......
Ok dutch, thanx. Does the following look like a plausible schedule of events we could expect?:
7 Oct pm, after the Murphy meeting, the dozers start moving dirt for the driveway, then a few days later scraping the land at the mill site.
14 Oct approx, work on the building's foundation begins (after the building permit is issued by the county building inspector).
Hello dutch,
I haven’t seen the construction plan yet, but I would certainly like to. Could you fill us in on any particulars of note?
For example, will the mill be located at the north end of the property, down by the creek, or will it be at the west end, more near to the driveway connection point?
Methinks downsideup doth protest too much ... ...
downside, since you have thought through this company thoroughly enough to keep alive so many detailed concerns about it, I figure that you either:
A) Have been buying this stock all along at a hoped for lower pps
B) Are worried that a short position of yours or your associates might be threatened soon
C) Drink waaaaay too much coffee
Look, if the longs here are wrong, they'll lose it all, obviously. And if the longs here are right, they will see a two cent investment turn into a forty or fifty cent company. If you don't think SFMI is worth the risk, then sell, don't buy, whatever, but please, don't continue to live under the presumption that your worst-case scenarios are causing many folks that I know to lose any sleep. Give it a rest.
sphindog, if you take a close look at the trading data, I believe you can see that there have already been a couple of instances of solid investors committing solid money to Silver Falcon, as recently as last week one day, and then again in early May '09.
The problem with waiting to first hear solid facts before committing solid money here at SFMI is that, at that point, one can't buy shares for three or five cents. When significant news arrives, there will be very few sellers here to meet the demand of all those new solid buyers you write of; the pps behaviour could very well be inelastic to the upside for a few days. Then you'll have to buy for that (much higher) price.
Aristotle Onassis was quoted once as having said "the secret of business is to know something that nobody else knows". After this stock takes off, and it will, you'll see a lot of posts here and there to the effect of "should-of could-of would-of". So, you can take a chance and see this as an opportunity today, or you can wait for the solid news later on, and then try to beat the rush.
HenryJennings doth protest too much methinks. (google it if you don't understand)
So, HenryJennings, you're just "another guy on the internet", and you say that you don't own nor short any shares here. That actually makes you quite an unusual fellow, and not "another guy on the internet". I mean, wow, you spend all that time producing all those postings (the common theme being a complaint about the lack of transparency, a complaint soon to be assuaged btw), and you do this just to protect the interests of other unknown guys on the internet who otherwise might buy sfmi stock and then get cheated by a pumper!
You really are quite a guy then. So who the hell am I? I'm the guy you worry about a little bit. The guy who posts hopefully informative constructive info about a pink sheet company, and where if true but if disregarded by you, you miss out big time.
Btw HenryJennings, I've posted photos of the interior of the mill, not on this board but on another. Maybe those might help you out with your sense of paranoia.
Why, Mr. HenryJennings, after all your dozens of pejorative posts complaining that this company hasn’t filed with the SEC yet, you’ve finally posed a new question, and one worth pursuing: “…so who am I to talk?”
So….what is the answer to your question? Who are you, and assuming that you do not own any SFMI stock, why do you persist here? (ok, I confess, most of us already know or suspect that you are a shorter, intent on sowing doubt, day after day, forcing stock out of the weaker hands, going after it yourself, and then hoping to profit from it later)
But let’s give it a try anyway: HenryJennings, who are you to talk?
The company has just released an updated history of War Eagle ops and an updated estimate of initial operations. Go to the company's home page and you'll see the link to it under 'investor info'.
It makes for very interesting reading, particulary on page 23 where eight months of tailings ops at Melba this year, beginning in May, are projected to yield a net return of $18M.
Thanx for the report from Melba, spitburger. I've been out there also, both to the mill for three or four times over the last months, and to the mountain property twice last fall. I've also met with Mr. Quilliam personally a number of times. My observations there are the same as yours, in that there has been no (visible) progress in the last few weeks. I have a different view as to what this means, however. I see this as a result of a setback in the schedule, but I do not see this as evidence of a cessation of effort to get into production. I believe that efforts are well underway to get the tailings into the door and then the product out the door, and I believe it will happen. That's why I've been almost as busy buying stock these last weeks as you have been selling stock here. Basically I'm looking at this investment as a gamble, over a period of a couple of years, that this management will succeed in their goal.
We all do our investigations/DD, and we all make our decisions, hopefully based on that DD alone. It all comes down to "high risk-high potential return" vs. "low risk-lower potential return". I see this delay as having created an opportunity to increase stakes in this venture at a lower averaged entry point. Where the bottom of the pps will eventually be in my optimistic scenario is impossible to know (and yes, I believe, unlike GoldSilverMines, that there has been a boatload of shorting going on in this stock), but I'm able and willing to ride this thing out.
Good luck to you in your next equity venture.
Say there Henry, do you speak Russian?
Good to see you back online again. How 'bout stopping by the stockhouse site and say hello?
Good deal on your having picked up some shares this a.m. -and my view of a fair price of .60 pps is based on the initial revenue stream from the tailings processing. When the higher yielding ores get processed later on next year the fair price for this company goes up accordingly.
Again, the trading in this stock right now is obviously less than rational. Either there are some -very- cash hungry sellers out there or there are sellers who are engaging in somethin' that is less than....
Xuan, this company is putting together an operation that should, at present, justify a .60-.65 pps. Nothing has changed at SFMI in the last few weeks to rationalize the selloff we're looking at here, at least from a fundamentals/operations perspective.
What seems to have changed is the need for some of the shareholders here to sell at any price to raise capital. That's the only thing I can see that explains the price action lately and particularly today, where one shareholder just sold 5000 shares at .035. Something like that indicates either a desperate need for cash or something less than a legitimate activity.
In any case, I'm still out there, and I'll keep on picking up shares from whoever it is that's dumping. I just hope that the selling out there is all legal selling.
no sweat,
we all do what we have to do... for my part, i've been busy buying these last days, so i guess we've been on opposite sides of some trades here.
good luck to you though, as you head off to your next project. take a look over at our stock now and then next year to see how things turned out; maybe you'll decide to come back again.
take care.
Silver Falcon facility visit.
vdubbs, here's an update for you. By way of introduction, I hold SFMI stock by way of the 200-1 R/S from Dicut (DCUT), having been an investor there for many years.
Today (20 May 08) I flew into Boise, rented a car, and drove down to Melba to see the progress of assembly of the ore processing equipment. I spent about an hour with John Martin, the principal operator, and he said it would be alright if I posted here as long as I didn't attach any of the photos I took.
Afterwards I drove down south to see Silver City and later drove part way up the road that leads to the mines of War Eagle Mountain.
The plant itself will be ready to process the ore when the (tailings) ore is finally hauled down from the mountain. The hauling process won't take very long, but given the record snowfall this past winter, and given that the Feds have to officially certify and open the roads, I don't think the first ore will be processed until late June or early July.
The plant has an open area prepared adjacent to it where the tailings will be stockpiled. It'll be late fall before the whole pile has been processed. The process itself doesn't involve any chemical leaching, which is a definite plus, both from a regulatory and cost perspective. The whole process is quite automated, so that one man can run the whole show in the facility.
My opinion is that $5000 per day profit can be realized for the SFMI shareholders. That takes into account the 15% of gross for the operator and the 15% of gross for the owner of the land up there. Keep in mind that it is very tough to be too accurate here, since we don't know yet what the concentrations of gold/silver will be, what the price per oz will be, or what the historical reliability of the machinery will be.
The basic idea is to use the revenue from the 2008 summer processing of the tailings to reinvest in machinery for a similar process in a building that stands right next door (and that process will be roughly double the volume of the start-up building's volume). But now I'm talking about the processing of newly mined ore, and that's won't begin till over a year from now.
When the mining gets started, it'll likely be at the Illinois-Central vein initially. That work will be done by subcontractor crews, so that SFMI won't have many people in its direct employ (very little workmen's comp, scheduling issues, etc.).
The (record) snowfall on War Eagle has just about melted. I was able to drive most of the way to it with a two wheel drive rental, and the roads are in good shape, at least the roads I took. They are wide enough to accomodate large trucks, but only a single lane for a lot of that distance. The rivers are running fast and full with the snowmelt.
I'm sure I've forgotten to post a lot of other observations: the day here has been pretty long. But I'll give a shot at any questions you might have one of these days.
Good luck to you here. As a disclosure, I'm long this stock, holding just under 600K shares. My opinion is that the pps belongs at .55 to .65 based on the upcoming processing of the tailings alone, and, given that the likelihood of this project moving soon into the mining phase is high, I think that the eventual pps could be in the $5 to $8 range at some point in the next two to three years.
thisis
All Mr. Quilliam told me was that they would issue a PR "today", meaning 21May. I don't know what he'll have to say, but I expect that he will at least address the delay in the posting of the 2003 report.
lost investments
Hyland, of course we all understand that one doesn't incur a loss until they sell at a lower price that what they bought at. At the moment I view the situation as 'having a lower present valuation'.
this is the one-
I've been busy buying Dicut stock this morning; four cents seems quite reasonable to me today. How've you been?
confidentiality
leonitor, it would be quite unlikely for a PR to be issued that would outline the possibilities or probabilities of an impending sales agreement, because many if not most of those discussions with potential customers have confidentiality clauses. The potential customer doesn't usually want these talks to be public until there is an agreement signed.
That's about all
DooDahMan, that's pretty much all he had to say that was relevant to this board. The other points he made have been highlighted by me and by others already. But to recap, I do get the clear sense that there is more than just the one material PR (the one that Biigboy has talked about in his recent posts) in the wings.
It is an interesting idea that you just amplified in your last reply: that MMs generally have an idea of pending news before most investors find out about it, and proceed to try to shake out as much stock as possible beforehand from the weak hands. If true, and as you know I agree here, then it also must be true that they know when it is time to stop their gradual walking down of the pps and instead initiate their own more aggressive buying/short covering process, when they see that nobody out there is left that will sell to them out of fear/panic. We've all looked at pps charts of various companies and noted that there often is a spike in volume immediately prior to a public release of information and most importantly for the MMs, prior to the pps move. That shows that oftentimes 'someone knows' before the average investor. So it'll be interesting to see if we get the same predictive volume spike in DCUT stock sometime soon.
Which of the market makers working DCUT stock would you suggest watching most closely for this type of activity? Anyone out there have any ideas/suspicions based on their past behaviors?
recent MM strategy
DooDahMan, allow me to interject an opinion into this conversation if I might. You ask why the MMs as a group might be putting artificial downward pressure on the pps these last few months.
I asked Mr. Karla that question last week. His answer was in part that he felt 'that they already know something'. My interpretation of that answer is that it is quite possible that the MMs have for some days now been aware of the likelihood of upcoming (revenue generating) PRs, and that therefore they have been working the price downward so as to shake out stock from the weaker hands out there. As they acquire those shares they increase their profit if indeed these PRs finally surface.
Certainly much of the downward pressure on the pps recently is from dilution, but I believe that a lot of it is also due to that of my conjecture here.
That's ok
Well, you do what you have to do; I hope you do well with your next investment. I'm still out there accumulating Dicut today; I have no idea whether or not .080 will be the bottom, and I suppose it doesn't matter either. You'll note from my previous posts the reasons that I'm Long on this one, and very much expect to sell the additional shares I'm buying today at a significantly higher price.
Again, good luck to you.
xbigshot
Thanks for your prompt and interesting response.
The next question I'm going to start looking into is regarding the military marketplace potential for Dicut. One of the more interesting quotes that Mr. Quilliam had in the PR today was:
"..This (Phase2e) relationship allows DICUT, INC. to customize the Aurora xPass(TM) on a more timely basis for quicker delivery to our customers...the Company's Detect-X(TM) products will be actively developed and marketed for detection of Semtex and other explosives.."
Granted this possibility is further out into the future than the more near term (and of course long-awaited, dicussed in just about every post here and at RB) contractual hopes, but there are folks on this advisory board, detailed on this Ihub home page who have a strong military background and presumeably the interests and connections to apply to this.
good post
xbigshot, thanks for your insights into the GSA procurement process. Do you or any other readers here have any view as to whether or not this new relationship that Dicut has with Phase2e portends additional delays in getting their wares to some segments of the market, either through the GSA or directly to other buyers?
Specifically, if Dicut is now going to be spending time repackaging/re-engineering the 'interface' part of their black boxes over at Phase2e, does that mean that their black boxes as they now exist can not still be sold soon?
new revenue vs. pps
Hello all. Rather than kick each other around with "who posted what, what they meant, what were his motives" and topics of that nature, here's a question that I think is more to the point for all of us Longs:
What is the response of the pps, historically, for penny stocks like Dicut that release a PR, when that PR tells the marketplace that they now expect to receive "X" amount of revenues per year from a certain arrangement?
I've been using the presumption that somewhere between 2.0 to 2.5 is a good multiplier to get from incremental revenue per share to incremental price per share.
Anyone care to venture what we could expect in response to a hypothetical PR from Dicut, based on what you've seen in the past for other similar (at Dicut's phase of development) penny stocks, and/or start-up stocks of companies in the security industry?
Another (preemptive) public defense
Biigboy, my view is that none of your posts have been "wrong" as such; I've been led to expect the public dissemination of news for three or four different periods of time, only to be (just to a minor degree) disappointed. I believe the reasons for those delays have never been because of deception on the part of Dicut management but rather because of unexpected delays on the part of potential buyers of their services. I have very much appreciated your perspective these last months as the story of this company's potential has evolved.
There's a bright side to this long wait that is just about over, and that is that once a company gets through the numerous hoops that a new government service provider/bidder is confronted with, after that they have an edge over subsequent competitors who have yet to put up with their own hoop jumping burdens.
Here's a prediction that's easy to make: it won't be long (no pun intended) until some of the birdbrains out there start posting the old "oh, I see, another prediction from biigboy, how do you know you're right this time" type of post. Only they'll be quite crude and moronic in their construction. Just try to think of those posts as comic relief.
Good luck to all, hang in there. I'm looking at almost 1.1M shares in this outfit, so the ride for me is going to be exciting in either direction it may go. -And don't give up on this company for a couple of lousy days or even weeks of timing of news releases. That's just a myopic way to invest.
Pretty quiet
Iglatend, that's the way it is so far today, pps drifting around with no real volume or conviction. The only post over at RB is from a basher who doesn't seem to be in possession of any shares, but does demonstrate possession of an IQ of approximately the same number as the pps here.
But yes, all the info I can glean (including mostly my communication with the company, not so much the posts of others) points to reason for optimism this week. And no, this isn't a guarantee of that happening this week; just my observation.
(more) news speculation
Hello cousin, I recall a post (since then removed by the RB folks for non-pertinent reasons) by investor89, aka investor991 recently wherein he recounted a conversation with Raj Kalra. In that he had been told to expect some news (not just one release, but multiple ones) between around 13 March through 17 March. Hopefully, this an accurate recharacterization of that post.
The date when this company finally executes on its potential and generates some excitement is so tough to predict, since we are talking about negotiations with governmental entities. But of the eventuality of success I continue to have no doubt.
Good luck to all again this upcoming week.