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"...the vast technical fog of clinical trial results..."
Shakespeare himself couldn't have been more eloquent. How a drug demonstrating clear safety, designed to treat terminally ill patients gets bogged down in endless, endless statistical minutiae to predict clinical effectiveness is beyond the imagination. Absolute societal failure at work.
Wondering if you'd ever read anything by Dr. Matt Bivens, Substack writer ("The 100 Days"). His expose of BP's criminal (and astounding) role in the opiod crisis is well beyond eye-opening. In April, Pfizer's scamming of the covid world with Paxlovid makes an appearance. I would love if Dr Bivens or someone like Matt Taibbi or Glenn Greenwald would do a deep dive into the septic world of the three+ decades of BP amyloid-mania that dominate$ the dementia universe.
https://mattbivens.substack.com/
I rarely post these days, but this post by Gary makes more sense than any I've read this year. For God's sake we're dealing with 100% terminal diseases here - let's initiate some treatment!
Well, the time appears almost nigh, as sub-4 bucks was my alarm to consider re-entering AVXL in a serious manner. I would expect a bottoming base coming into existence this summer, low 3's, maybe mid/high 2's. The science is still the science, Missling is still (ugh) Missling, and the Rett failure is and I believe always will be a failure. The fleaflicker worked to perfection except the wide open receiver dropped the ball in the end zone. But, game still not over, unlike my January calls which more resemble the Bismarck, c. May 1941 than an equity derivative. At some point the relentless shorting must stop - I just hope it's before MC hits zero. Good luck to all.
Adios, all. I'm too old to deal with Missling's chronic ineptitude at this point, divested 90% of shares. I will consider re-entering at 3 or 4 bucks...I think the stock has more to drop, not to mention the feeling in my bones that this is going to be a tough market year in general. I'm wrong often, might be again. Good luck to all (except for Adam Filistine).
RWD-RWE ...reveals more than FDA STAT SPEAK...IMO
Amen, brother. Here's to a productive, positive 2024.
A very wealthy individual in my state died (age 60-ish) last year from mad cow disease after eating tainted meat in S. America while on an exotic game hunting trip. Disease progressed very quickly was my understanding.
Upvoting your own post is really, uhh,...🤡
Not to mention the patients.
I am not "anti-Anavex" and have been very long for 8+ years (admittedly on-and-off in the early years). But I have become very skeptical of Chris Missling's ability to make real success happen, mostly due to his terribly chronic habit of over-promising and under-delivering, manifested by missing deadlines and bungling data releases - basic blunders that a CEO should have mastered years ago. A $650 MM market cap at this point in the game is pure managerial malpractice. So, to your question - why am I here?
1. The science. As George Costanza once proclaimed (about something completely unrelated 🫨), [finding A2-73] "is like discovering plutonium by accident!!" This drug will truly change the world for the better, and should earn shareholders quite a significant return.
1a. No other company has a product that rivals blarcamesine. This is Apple vs Radio Shack.
2. Missling is not an idiot. He has done many, many good things as Anavex CEO. I believe he will get us across the goal line, eventually, but at a value and timing that will be of commensurate benefit to all of us? Not so sure about that.
3. I truly want to be a part of the team that incinerates the naked shorts. Cardboard boxes under wintry bridges would be a suitable habitat for them.
I would love to be proven unmistakenly wrong before New Year's, but my faith is barely even mustard-seed level at this point...
Agreed, the Belmont performance will never be duplicated, totally unbelievable. But, for raw horsepower while running up against a great, great horse in Sham, Sec's outside lane burst on the first turn at Pimlico is unmatched.
I watched the Secretariat TC race(s) on tv....horse racing and championship boxing were really big deals in the era of 3-channel television. Anecdotally, Secretariat's best triple crown race was the Preakness in which he covered around 150 yards on the outside in the first turn, going from last to first then never giving back the lead. Worth watching on youtube.
I wish Anavex was 'moving like a tremendous machine'....
Kentucky Derby. 20 horses, Secretariat came out of the gate in the rear.
When specifying 'Feb-ish' for an AVXL information release it is recommended that the year also be specified.
20 horses in a race and I’ve placed my money on the horse in last place and trailing badly .. but miracles do happen !
Watch the '73 Derby
Because we all knew it would?
I wrote and posted this nearly 3 years ago when the share price was in the teens and moving up. Didn't dream we'd be where we are now...anyway, 'tis the season...
‘Twas the night before readout when all through the lab
Murines did snooze - no aducanumab;
The lab coats were hung by the hood vent with care
In hopes that St Missling soon would be there.
Shareholders were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of approvals danced in their heads.
I nervously lay on the couch for the night
My brain couldn’t shut down, my stomach was tight.
When my computer screen suddenly awoke with a flicker
I sprang from my place to check the Anavex ticker!
I pulled up my statements to see what’s the buzz
Had to know now if what I’d hoped, really was.
The full moon outside gleamed bright through the blinds
Had Anavex stock finally blown anxious minds?
When what to my wondering eyes should appear,
A stage full of patients with grins ear to ear!
Next to them one man they owed for their bliss
I knew in a moment it must be St Chris.
And following, his ardent supporters they came
Chris whistled and shouted and called them by name
”Yo Nidan and Xena, hey Bourbon and Tred!
Remember what Falcon and Biostock said!
To the top of the heap! To the top of the chart!
Don’t think of a sale, don’t ever lose heart!”
As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly,
When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky;
So off to the bureaucrats’ lair they did go
The Anavex team, the good doctor in tow.
And then, in a twinkling, I heard on tv
The feds on the hot seat were starting to flee
As I leaned toward the tube and turned up the sound
St Christopher swooped in, the feds were beclowned
He was dressed all in white, from his head to his toes
Few mortals can ponder all that this man knows.
A bundle of meds he had flung on his back,
The lifesaving goods he prepared to unpack.
His eyes — how they twinkled! his dimples how merry!
His cheeks were like roses, his hair kinda scary!
His droll little mouth was drawn up in a smile
He knew that the marathon slog was worthwhile
The way he was speaking, the grit in his voice
Left no doubt that Biogen now had no choice;
Their drug it was nonsense, it dawned on them now
The stuff wasn’t fit to be fed to a sow.
So Missling announced to the world, “We have won!
The trials are over, the trials they are done!
We worked without stopping, we never gave up
It’s time the world drinks from that big golden cup!”
He spoke no more words and with eyes full a-gleam
He filled all the stockings with blarcamesine
Then pointing his finger out toward the crowd
Of shareholders, patients, and enemies loud.
He leapt in the air, to his team gave a whistle,
And away they all flew like the down of a thistle.
But I heard him exclaim, ere he sped out of sight,
“Happy old age to all, and to all a good night!”
Be careful what you wish for
Oh to be a cowboy hedgie with 100-200 mil to throw at AVXL over a period of say 3-5 days...shorts would be having breakfast with a thermonuclear device as the stock triples or more. We're still allowed to dream, right?
Below the Mendoza line, yet still given a paying spot on the roster.
great post nidan
Yet SAVA is only down 5% after a two-week hundred percent jump. How is that possible?
We need Bobby Axelrod to drop a few bill on the MC. Now.
His name is Dr. Missling. When you address him as "herr" it is both xenophobic and disrespectful.
Oh please
Re B.Langostino:
Clearly the FDA understands some drugs are worthwhile to approve even if they aren't perfect. This is why the secondary endpoint approval pathway exists. As long as Anavex gets approved does it really matter which endpoints were met? It's like arguing for a 97 on an exam when you have a 96. An "A" is an "A".
Exactly THIS.
Had I just woke up from a two-year coma, I'd be scouring the internet for info on all the failed AVXL trials.
Or the impossible....file an NDA?
Kombucha not coffee. Most likely a millennial.
(-)13% for the week. Beautiful. Actually beginning to seem comical.
It is truly a (reverse) accomplishment to hold what AVXL supposedly holds - scientifically speaking - and yet have a MC under half a billion. Takes quite a bit of effort to underachieve to this degree.
Even cadaver SAVA is up off the mat today....sheesh
At the end the company is a business, and needs revenue ASAP.
If Anavex dies, this will be its epitaph.
Precisely. We're being gutted.
On the bright side, a 4% loss is hardly any money loss. We have that going for us.
Beginning to feel like George Costanza investing in 'Sendrax'
All this SAVA crap going on and its MC is still 135% of AVXL. Incredible.
That's a shame.
61%!!! Fibonacci!!! We're saved!!! Yes!!!!!
lol
Not hearing much from the 1249 Club these days....must have closed up shop?