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Thanks for the Info, I will add to my watchlist. YMAX is a covered call ETF? Fund description mentions "option Income"
Like you said the revenue jump is a result of tax return payments. But what is unknown is how much the tariffs will keep adding up to.
The drop in expenditures is a posistive trend, I would assume that will continue.
The interest payments will be a negative being it will only get higher.
Thanks, you do as well
Good to know, I was wondering how much of bite it was taking out of my many SGOV transactions. I concluded negligible
even at the higher rate.
Enjoy the w/e and Memorial day off. Going to BBQ today and Mon. Smash Burgers one of the days.
Glad its coming down. Surprised that actual $ is down Dec24 thru Apr25. Good news.
LOL!
This might not be as bad as I first thought. S&P downgraded in 2011 and Fitch in 2023. Still interest rates will go up, not sure how high though.
RUT ROH,
Moody’s downgrades United States credit rating on increase in government debt
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/16/moodys-downgrades-united-states-credit-rating-on-increase-in-government-debt.html
Have a good one. I had a nice vacation, didnt really look at market much.
Currently long KOLD and IBIT.
My daughter lives near Boston MA. I had a great time seeing the sights. Went to the "Cheers" bar and also saw a Red Sox game at Fenway Park.
Looks like it is happening now.
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There is a volume bar that also fits right in your two price targets. get past them then w challenge the high.
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Last Monday I bgt the lower risk IBIT. I will look at the 2X'rs next buy signal. Interesting that BTC is up will market down, maybe this is the turn we are looking for?
Could be short squeeze maybe like article in your post.
Only thing about miners is they can diverge in a big way from BTC price movements.
Today is one of those days IBIT is up +4.16% RIOX up +1.06....not exactly 2x but when they move, they MOVE very profitably.
Have good one yourself!
Dont forget that the market is closed Friday for Good Friday/ Easter Weekend
Thanks for report. Looks like some of the actions on cutting spending is starting to show up. Does the outlays amount include interest expense?
The tariffs should show up next months report, will be interesting to see.
Yes good read. Need to watch EPS revisions like a hawk. Plus what the CEO/CFOs say in their EPS conferance calls.
The forward PE calculation about to get wonky.
I read an article in CNBC I think it was, that floating rate bonds were part of this blowup/unwinding of trade.
Watch FLOT might give a signal when this crap has settled.
FLOT
I agree, we were real close to near term resistance at 5500 +\-. I would show view but don't know how on IPhone. So at REZ, and coin flip territory. Hard to trust my charts ATM.Need the indicators to rebalance.
For now going off sight picture. Working well so far.
My LT accts went bonkers today.
Been a good day.
I have been sitting on my hands trading wise. All focus is on my LT accts. Havent made a swing/day trade in 10days.
Looking to get back in. Good luck on your trade.
Yes sir!
President Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause and lowered reciprocal taxes on U.S. trading partners that have not retaliated against the country, but increased China’s tariff level to 125 percent.
problem is that with the horrid decay this pair has you cant look at 36-40. You would have to adjust the numbers.
Still there is a target somewhere. The oil price going down will probably pull NG down too. I missed the KOLD buy on Friday's short signal.
I have been almost 100% focused on my LT acct, so I have basically stopped swing trading.
Im doing OK there, being it is a conservative retirement alllocation since Im retired.
I will be back into the "swing of things" shortly.
They need to reduce the debt. Trump should negotiate the tariffs down to about 10% aggregate from about 29% (i think this was the figure) that is just raised them to. Its even higher if you count the additional 50% put on China.
A aggregate 10% tariff on imports would bring in 400B a year.
I think money is flowing back into stocks from bonds. Also China might be trying to sell off its USTreas.
Im really not sure anymore, every day is a new day.
The two Treasury auctions seemed to have gone OK, rate was lower than last week so market absorbing the debt.
The 3mo went for 4.175% and 6mo got 4.000% vs 4.205% and 4.070% last week respectively.
about 150B were sold from the two auctions.
4.175% 4.205%
11:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction 4.000%
Keep eye on your MMF type ETF's, SGOV GSY MINT etc. Most of them had a wild night. Im thinking since price dropped, there was some panic selling or selling at any cost to raise cash and the thin volume/liquidity created problems.
SGOV is now trading above Friday close, so all is good for now..
I noticed that the 6T debt was Jan-Jun so we are already rolling that over/and issuing new debt at a rate of 2.1T per month. But we are just pushing it out several months.
Here's the breakdown based on auctions in March.
4-13weeks 1,240B (Major kicking the ole can down the road)
17-52Wks 560B
2-5yrs 245B
7-30yrs 118B
Ave rate of existing debt is 3.2% and we refi at over 4%
After looking at this again, Im not as worried in the short term. The auctions seem to be able to absorb the amount. But for sure we got to stop/slow down the deficit spending.
Trump needs the interest rates to go down...way down, in a hurry!
$9.2 TRILLION of US debt set to mature in 2025. Source: The Kobeissi Letter / X
A mounting debt burden: Putting it in perspective
The $9.2 trillion maturing debt is nearly 31.05% of the annual U.S. GDP, projected to be around $29.63 trillion in 2025. This figure is alarming when compared to other key financial benchmarks.
The maturing debt is almost double the total federal revenue of $5.03 trillion. 70% of this debt—about $6.5 trillion—will mature between January and June 2025, creating immense pressure on bond markets.
Much of this maturing debt was borrowed at significantly lower interest rates. With the average interest rate on U.S. Treasury debt now at 3.2%—the highest since 2010—rolling over this debt at current yields will be expensive.
Total U.S. federal debt. Source: The Kobeissi Letter / X
The government will be forced to issue massive amounts of new bonds to meet this, increasing Treasury supply and potentially driving yields even higher.
Market reaction and rising yields
The bond market has already shown signs of stress, with real yields steadily climbing since 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield has surged 115 basis points since the start of rate cuts, showing investor concerns over ballooning government debt.
Longer-term Treasury yields have also jumped by nearly a full percentage point since September, fueled by growing worries over fiscal deficits and inflation in light of Trump’s plans for more tax cuts and tariff hikes.
That being said, the U.S. debt problem is not new, but the scale of the 2025 refinancing challenge makes it an issue investors cannot ignore. While the Fed may attempt to navigate this challenge with gradual rate cuts, the sheer size of the maturing debt suggests significant financial strain ahead.
Possible support here? In spite of that knucklehead Cramer!
SPX
Im long a bowl of popcorn. Oh yeah some BOIL but thats it on trading acct. We will see what happens next. The other countries will escalate or try to negotiate.
Thur should have some type of direction.
I didnt realize it but CSchwab pays only 0.05% on cash. TDA was paying 0.35% last year before the conversion. Short term int rates aren't really that much different from last year to be that much less. Doesnt matter all my cash north of a SGOV or GSY/MINT 1 share price goes into one of those.
Good read!
Thanks for share, lots of good info there with the categories listed on left.
Yes it is, and the big one on Wednesday, The Trump Tarriff Show.
Here's an article from David Keller a SC contributor. Basically a potential bear flag formation with a downside target of 5200 S&P.
little bit lower is a low 5100 from last Aug.
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Just learned something on TOS. If draw a trendline it will name it, and you can then set an alert if it crosses it.
Trying to do that with indicators but havent found a way. I know it can be set to draw up/down arrows but no alert.
One last comment on these MMF style ETFs, most of them go ex/div on 1st of month, whereas GSY goes ex/div on the monday after the 3rd Friday of month.
SC adjusts the div on price. TOS will show the actual non adjusted price.
Duma brings up good point on trading AH or PreMkt, SGOV is highly liquid and can be traded easily The others not so much. Not a concern if the holding period is longer term strategic move since you would buy/sell during RTH
SGOV cant be beat as a "sweep acct". I adjust my cash balance every day. This might get trickier if the 1-3 month treasuries fall under 3% or so.
Also, thanks to Duma for noticeing this, SGOV and some others jump in price overnight into Friday open by as much as 3-4c when normally a 1c change per day.
Here are my faves (see chart). GSY is top followed by MINT FLOT FLRN.
SGOV BIL SHV are the best for steady price movement . TFLO is a good choice as it is almost as steady as SGOV class but returns a little more.
GSY FLOT can get somewhat erratic at times but pay well. Look at the fund holdings and ave maturities. SGOV/BIL are 0-3mo treasuries
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Thanks, I will add to my BTC watch list. Ive traded both of these many times in past.
It by itself can make good money but it can frustrate also. BTC goes up and MARA goes down or sideways. Then it will spike for no reason.
I got stopped out but got back in Y at the close. Im still in OILU and bgt some spxl at the close