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Im guessing that it will bounce at the trendline, lot depends on what FED says next Wed.
I sold almost everything Y AM and flip short on two pos. SQQQ
Still have one SPXL so net of 36% leverage short.
BOIL almost a buy Y EOD
If we trade below Y LOD then sell last of the SPXL
Good to know about the Freeport situation.
Watching and waiting for next BOIL signal
Supposedly lot of sector rotation going on, at some point the buy the tech dippers will appear.
Lookng at NG futures, the front month future /NG low is $1.52 this year and could happen again, BOIL is based on Sep not Aug so amt is higher but it will become the front month next week I think until it rolls over 2nd week in Aug. even so, only 4c difference between the two contracts.
Production is up nearly 10% over last year and so far the summer burn not doing much to lower storage.
Geopolitical concerns rising its ugly head. insert-text-here
thanks, but I wasnt in it the whole way, I did have 2 trades, the 1st one I got out early like you but got in (and back out) on the 2nd one.
If I followed my rules. I would have sold half at 1st target (16%) and 2nd half ride until sell signals still would have half in trade. Not a simple system but one of main sell rules is a close below the MA3 after T1(1st target) has been met and then wait for NDC(next day confirm= trade below prior day's LOD)
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ended up selling my FNGU AH, the trade got me 14.52% Sold KOLD near open for +4.20%
Didnt quite get the signal I was looking for from BOIL.
Still have 3 pos SPXL and one TQQQ pos. total of 90% leverage (72/18) SPXL/TQQQ
50 yard line
Thanks for all the info and opinion this morning guys.
screens up Thur 8:30am CPI and for you gas traders out there 10:30am NG storage and production report.
added KOLD and IBIT premkt today along with my Big 3 longs
somewhat of a spike in VIX last hour of trading. Report due Thur AM (CPI) is cause?
Election politics hasnt really impacted trading, but do you think that will change as we get closer to Nov?
Will be interesting.
They were fun for sure, mostly traded 60min charts. WooHoo2 and M89 were my favorites.
I like what we are doing now also, lot easier on a daily chart to decide on signals.
Like today.....just keep riding the Bull train and check back tomorrow AM.
TNA/TZA used to be the Kingdaddy ETFs like Duma said, we made plenty of trades with that pair. Compared to SPX TNA was a 6X ETF
In case you didnt know, Duma had a board prior to this one. And that is where most of the TNA/TZA trading took place.
TNA now is mostly a coin filp or dice roll. Duma's illustration spot on.
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youve been nailing it last few weeks! Great trades!
What you have listed below is 1X. your trades were actually 21%+ 3X, Yes?
Im still long SPXL 3 pos and 1 pos ea FNGU TQQQ
FNGU is 2week old trade, the others going on 5 weeks.
Im 126% leverage total
I got out too early too but that was OK at the time. I really thought another BOIL move up do to weather but the hot weather failed to move the price.
Still waiting for the next signal.
Surprised the hurricane didnt spike the price more on BOIL, some unknowns being the LNG ports being hit. Still have to go thru damage report process. Dont know if I want to trade those signals.... very gappy. But the that condition will resolve itself in a day or two.
We will get the summer power burn very soon so opportunity there is coming. Then the winter setup.
Yep, the lower it goes now, the higher BOIL can go later.
I totally missed that too, but glad. Got my daughter in town from MA. We got our BarBQ shoes on!!
Doing a little brisketteering.
Tomorrow we do the homemade ice cream and hamburger hotdog thing
The CY or current yield I treat as a snapshot and yes it doesnt take in acct price changes. That is where the 3mo rolling ave comes in. The change in price is added or subtracted from div to get the real return.
If there is a 25c dividend and prices goes down 10c then only 15c is made and is factored in the 3mo return. The CY is only there as a secondary reading.
The 3mo ave is what I focus on. Plus looking at the various SC time spans.
Now looking at my spread sheet there is no reason why I cant add/subtract price to CY rate calculation to make total return. Should smooth it out some.
The reason for the first method is that is the same as how a stock dividend current yield that is reported is figured. AT&T or T, today has a div yld of 5.85%(Yahoo) that is what my CY is comparing to.
keeps on a going down, still waiting. I underestimated the KOLD target for sure. The lower it goes gives us that much more room for BOIL to move up.
We figure differently. I use the closing price of the exdiv date. All the ETFs except GSY that would be the 1st of month or if 1st is on weekend then 1st trading day.
GSY's Exdiv is the Monday following the third Friday of each month. My figures are all simple math .... no compounding.
CY=Current Yield= div/closing price*12
3mo=last 3 months of dividends plus the price change over 3 months *4 to get annual rate.
I dont have an YTD figure. 5.88% was CY. Div0.249398/50.86*12=5.88
The current yield is a good indicator of trend. If CY is less than 3mo rolling then rolling ave will most likely drop or keep dropping.
I used to do a 4 month rolling ave but switched to 3mo which I believe more in tune to what current payout is.
Before making a decision on ETF, I like to use SC and compare all 6 ETFs 3m,2m,1m,2w,1w
CMA compare
Here are my numbers. We calculate a little different so #s wont match. No matter, it is the comparison between the ETFs that count.
ETF 3mo CY
FLOT 6.27% 5.88%
TFLO 5.35 5.19
SGOV 5.29 5.25
BIL 5.18 5.15
GSY 6.32 5.49
MINT 5.65 5.27
Out of the three "sweep acct" ETFs TFLO SGOV BIL im liking SGOV and will transition any TFLO into SGOV as I trade.
I will keep FLOT as my non-sweep cash ETF i my trading acct.
Below chart shows last 10days compare. This includes the last div payout.
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Another month and quarter done. I keep thinking we are about to roll over and then another ATH gets posted.
Just going to wait it out for next BOIL signal. Going to be some power burn this summer.
When these things come online, they will be able to pull good amounts of gas from us.
Today's Kingdaddy's from our Fav 3X list
Note WANT and TPOR >>>>> Inventory getting bought and reorderd?
Surprised KOLD had more move left in it. In cash waiting for sig to buy BOIL
Edit: Symbol Symbol price change %gain
KOLD KOLD 44.21 +2.09 +4.96%
FNGU FNGU 443.54 +18.56 +4.37%
NVDQ NVDQ 2.00 +0.08 +4.17% (SOXS up 3.06%)
WANT WANT 33.46 +1.22 +3.78%
TMV TMV 34.13 +1.20 +3.64%
MARA MARA 23.37 +0.74 +3.27%
TPOR TPOR 29.19 +0.90 +3.18%
Interest rates 10y moving up...Everytime these people open their traps.
From CNBC
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday said the central bank was not ready to cut rates, saying this would only be “appropriate” when data showed that inflation is sustainably easing toward the Fed’s 2% target.
Bowman also did not take further interest rate hikes off the table.
“I remain willing to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at a future meeting should progress on inflation stall or even reverse,” she said.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook on Tuesday said she only expects little change to inflation rates this year, but sees inflation “slowing more sharply” next year.
Here's my take. Moderately bullish. I think ABC correction over and confirmed if break TL. A agree with Bitcoin >100k in the near future 2024-25
Still can break down as you say. im currently long BITO and IBIT
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when I first started posting on the board, I was trading TNA/TZA but using a SPX chart for signals. It worked well for several years. We were also using UPRO and SPXU and SSO SDS at various times. along with the QLD QID
SPY holding up well compared to QQQ and especially the chips. SMH/SOXL
I believe normal profit taking on some of these nosebleed altitude stocks.
Sold my FNGU pos +16% well below 10ema
leaves TQQQ and SPXL 3Pos.
Out completely now. Overall trade 5% gain. KOLD
Thanks, but Ive only sold part of it. moving up stops.
Sold 1/3 of KOLD pos preM @10% gain
I dont follow the "Max Pain" concept anymore but based of the current open interest a close in SPY between 546-547 would be it.
That would be the price where maximum puts and calls expire worthless benefiting the call/put writers.
This could change at the RTH open.
My stop held, and Im back in the green. KOLD. Holding the Big 3 index posistions as well. I did put a 50%PS on SOXL which lines up with the 10ema.
PS=Profit Stop 50% of max gain
Im still in KOLD, with loss near B/E, I got in a day earlier which gave me a big buffer on Tue. Stop is low of trade signal (buy) candle.
KOLD
Multiple closes above the UKC (Keltner Channel) as well on both QQQ and SPY. Will look to take profits near the 10ema.
My 1st target is 45.61 will sell half
Thx, totally forgot about Juneteenth Holiday.