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Thank you NS for sharing this.
Those who have been around the MB for a lengthy period know that I am a huge advocate of Vascepa/Vaskepa.
When I read the article the use of V in this setting is very specific. Notice it is an update from its 2021 meeting.
It is for a condition where the arteries in the extremities of the body build up plaque and restrict blood flow. This can lead to increased blood clots which can lead to strokes, mitral infarction, obvious pain and even death of a portion of the extremity if blood flow cannot get to it. It was very promising that over 80% of these distinguished experts recommended " For LEAD patients treated by statin and who have elevated triglyceride level between ≥150 mg/dL and ≤500 mg/dL, we suggest adding Icosapent Ethyl. 3. Before adding Icosapent Ethyl in LEAD patients treated with statin, we suggest looking for symptoms that may suggest atrial fibrillation. 4. For LEAD patients treated by Icosapent Ethyl and who have symptoms that suggest atrial fibrillation, we recommend performing an electrocardiogram."
Getting 80% or greater of these French experts to agree is extremely positive. So as the article says, now the experts have a standard to use with this particular condition and when certain blood values are still not in alignment even after being on max statins etc. It is promising that it says "Icosapent ethyl should obtain reimbursement soon in France."
I am not trying to be pessimistic but realistic. I have heard different things however the status in these countries is always dynamic and flowing. My understanding was that we will eventually get approval but it most likely will be well into the second half of 2025. I would love nothing more than to have this time line moved up. One thing which the French government looks upon for renewal is not only the medicinal value of the product but also how the company plans to help in the boosting of the economy as well. It could very well be that some of this infrastructure has taken place. Are there any manufacturing facilities in France producing or encapsulating IE? I'm not smart enough to find this but I know you watch this closely.
Bottom line at least for me is that I love the statement but until I can hear an update at the next CC from Berg, I'm going to be critically optimistic if that makes sense. What does make sense is that IE should be used for those with LEAD. Many more patients would be blessed with less strokes, heart attacks, pain, surgery and amputations.
As a side note, I have no clue on how the Chinese situation is going with Edding moving through with all the paperwork hoping for V to be on the government formulary for CVD in January. If anyone can see progress in this area it would be appreciated.
Germany is miles away still. The Germans are irrational not tying V into their healthcare. I understand the budget restraints but they would make up the difference in the 5 plus years with lack of 5 CVD conditions.
We are in good shape in Italy. It is a formality now but will have to wait until officially announced.
As always appreciate your posts and comments. Hopefully this does not come across as some "know it all" posting. Just typing as I'm processing this in my brain. Let's cross our fingers and hope we get a positive SPECIFIC update about France at the next CC and not just a "we hope to have reimubursement decisions in 2025 for France". Take care brother!
We are getting approval from Italy this time. I don't anticipate it moving the share price substantially however since it's all about revenue and cash preservation at this point. We had to make some compromises with Italy (I know cost was one of the compromises but don't know what the other compromises were). I don't know what the determined price was. I need a better sleuth than my poor, limited skills to find that out for us. We are between a rock and a hard place and our hands were tied. We couldn't afford another delay. We've got to get boots on the ground and Vaskepa into the hands of the Italian people with government HC coverage ASAP. Clocks ticking and not on our side. France is still a long way away and Germany is nothing more than a distant dream at this time. At least we've got Italy finally. It will be interesting to see timelines from management for roll out when they get offical announcement of approval from government. I think your time frame for next Friday is spot on. Thanks for all your due diligence for the shareholders. I've learned a ton from you and appreciated.
If this makes its way past discovery to a jury trial, I'm planning on taking off work and following the case in real time. I don't think it should go longer than a week. I was greatly disappointed in the commentary at the initial Amarin vs. Hikma case where those reporting kept saying it was a slam dunk in our favor. I will try and keep the commentary honest and as unbiased as I can. The mannerisms of the jurors can tell you a ton. GLTA longs. I still don't trust Judge Andrews though to let this move past discovery to trial. Will he find other causes to dismiss the lawsuit to save face? We'll see but at least we are back at the plate.
From Michelle Munson,
Exciting news!
After a rewarding journey as the Director of HR at Amarin UK & Ireland, I am excited to start a new chapter in my HR career! I am proudly ‘Open to Work’ and will be available from the end of July.
I am a commercially driven HR leader who is passionate about delivering awesome HR.
I have extensive international experience and a strong background in the startup and pharmaceutical sectors.
If you know of any opportunities or would like to connect, please don't hesitate to reach out!
Please give me a like and a share - and help me embark on chapter 2: HR the sequel!
Well looks like the HR Director for UK and Ireland is leaving as well. Don't know if fired or quit on her own free will.
Don't know what to make out of this. Doesn't seem good.
When the 8K came out about Patrick Holt quiting, this was required by law but Amarin posting that a major PBM was going a different direction starting July 1st was not required. This would have been required in the quarterly report they file but they didn't have to include that in the 8K for leaving of directors. You'll have to decide why Amarin included this at that time with the leaving of Patrick Holt.
I disagree with us rolling out a generic V right now. The infringement case against Hikma has no teeth if our argument is "Hikma infringed and knew what they were doing. Generic Vascepa is only for SHTG". Then the judge asks Amarin's prosecuters, "Wait a minute, I thought Amarin also sells a generic for HTG as well as SHTG? Why can you sell your generic for the individuals in the HTG level but Hikma can't? Aren't you infringing also?" Lot's more points that could be made. Only thing I can figure out posting our 25% hair cut from one of our PBM's is to get even more of a sell off for the share buy back. That seems like one risky crazy play that can backfire badly. Now more reshuffling in UK. Not the best of times to be an AMRN shareholder. I remember when it was heartbreaking to see our stock at 6.66. Now there was a period today it was 0.666. They better show us some hope for the future in the next few months or this could be even more painful than the 0.62 settlement price today.
My thoughts on today’s hearing
Players past and present
Judge Hall-Magistrate Judge
Judge Andrews-District Judge
Judge Moore-Female Judge who seems to direct the discussion the most
Judge Albright-The guest judge from the Western District of Texas
Judge Lourie-Seemed to be the oldest judge sitting and participated the least but still had excellent input and questions.
Counselor Kelly representing Amarin
Counselor Hickman representing Hikma
4 areas where induced infringement was focused.
The Label which all sides have agreed the preamble was limiting but Amarin believes that there are other acts which causes the label to infringe indirectly
The Website which appears to have listed generic ab eqivalent Vascepa for the hypertriglyceride indication
The press releases which does NOT mention it is the generic AB equivalent but mentions that it is the generic equivalent of Vascepa
Statement from the original case where Hikma was aware of the sales of Vascepa at 919 million in sales yet the generic equivalent would only cover up to 25% of this amount but no mention of this. Appears that this may have been in the press releases also but I cannot be sure.
Judge Moore definitely came to bat for us. Her thinking is that we may not have enough discovery to overcome a summary judgement but at the 12b6 stage there is certainly enough evidence to plausibly conclude that this case move forward with discovery. One thing it appears that she erred on was on the website page it apparently has a statement from Hikma that their generic equivalent can be used for hypertriglyceridemia. She was stuck on the AB equivalent statement in small letters at the bottom of the page but if what Counselor Kelly is saying is true then this certainly is an act of induced infringement regardless of whether or not they have made a statement that their product is a generic AB Therapeutic equivalent. I don’t think she grasped that and just kept going to the press releases. Also it was clear that she had versed herself but wasn’t as clear as most here. When Counselor Kelly mentioned that we don’t list out all the steps for a generic infringement to be used for, he clairified that there are no different steps. She asked if generics also list 4g which he pointed her to the page to examine their label as also listed as 4g of IPE being taken. Basically you take 4g of generic if you have severe HTG and you take 4g of Vascepa if you have HTG. Simple as that. No other steps than throwing them back and drinking water. She then comment that then how is the label not infringing on which Kelly commented that both sides have agreed that the preamble on their label is limiting. I think in her mind she was seeing the injustice of generics having the same labeling instructions (except not for CVD) and thought silently, “How is this not infringing???” She was emphatic that at this stage the only thing that makes sense is this case moving forward as plausibly factual and lead to discovery.
Judge Albright-He also was very clear that, to paraphrase his words, the information presented should be decided by a jury and not by Judge Andrews at this stage. He later back tracked a little and said that maybe this case could have a summary judgement by Judge Andrews in which case it would be a appealed back to them at that level with a different set of directives to determine instead of whether case is plausibly factual and can be moved forward to discovery. Clearly he believes this case should move forward to discovery.
Judge Laurie-It was not as clear with him but he never mentioned anything from a positive note in the direction of Hikma that I could pick up. All his questions were for clarity which seemed to support also his belief that Amarin had a valid argument. I don’t see any reason he would have an apposing vote of this moving forward.
Counselor Kelly did an incredible job. He also pointed out that the website lists HTG as an indication which Judge Moore did not recognize and still seemed to not get by the end.
He successfully protected the label controversy so that if/when this goes to trial we also have this available where we can show that there were portions of the label which supported induced infringement in other areas. If he had just agreed that the label stand alone does not infringe in any way, we would have lost this ability later in the trial with Hikma arguing and pointing out our statement.
He kept bringing this back to GSK vs. Teva over and over and the similarities since this is the case where all the judges eyes are currently turned.
He kept his demeanor and answered every question I felt where it silenced the judges or at least their question was answered successfully.
He was clear and concise and built upon the foundation step by step explaining things well in the very limited time he had left.
Enough about my interpretation on the court hearing today.
Now my thoughts on this moving forward.
As Marjac mentioned, the remanded order will hold to a large extent how open or how handcuffed our hands will be.
If it returns back to Judge Andrews to open discovery, I personally wonder how much more information we can find through emails, etc. I am all but sure that Hikma has destroyed, deleted every last bit of information which condemns them. I know that this is illegal but there are few individuals and companies who wouldn’t destroy damning evidence to protect themselves if they know that they can get away with it. Not saying right but a reality.
I don’t know how much more information however that Amarin has. They may have much more information which can factually prove this beyond what they have shared so far.
The courts laid out ways for Hikma to possibly win on summary judgement but I am not so sure that the Judges’ ideas are as straightforward as they listed. Yes, Hikma can have expert witnesses on their side show that they would not be led to infringe on the extralabel indications but Amarin also can have expert witnesses swear that they would and have every day used drugs every day according to their understanding of websites, press releases and label instructions. THIS IS WHERE THE NEW LEGAL TEAM HAS TO GO THE EXTRA MILE AND GET THE FINEST OF FINEST EXPERT PHYSICIANS TO CONVINCE THE JUDGE AND THE JURY LATER IF IT GETS TO THAT POINT. We were very weak with this in the initial patent case and it was one of the crushing blows to our case.
Judge Andrews does not want to be the judge who opens up pandoras box IMO and create havoc with Section 8 and with generics. I truly believe that is why he found the weakest excuses to rule against us. I honestly believe this scares him and could effect his name as well as career and profession if he is that person. This assumes if our case is strong. I think with strong evidence he may not order a summary judgment in favor of Hikma because we will appeal it again and does not want the US Appellate Courts to possibly overrule him again. If the case is weak then I think he will rule with summary judgment and this will sink our chances. With a strong case before him though, he will allow this to move forward to a jury trial and wash his hands of this to a large extent directing the jury perhaps how to vote but not being able to make the final decision so to say.
If this goes to a jury then I can’t stress enough how important it is to talk to the level of the intelligence of the jurors. I’ve been on many juries and I am dumbfounded at times how certain jurors struggle with grasping certain concepts. I was on a drunk driving jury where the defendant was caught driving under the influence and rejected the testing outside of the car and waited over 2 hours before being forced to do the breathalizer and breathed a BAL over 2.0 (acceptable at that time was either 0.5 or 0.8 but can’t remember) and we still had one juror that said if I can’t seem him staggering around in front of me then I’m not going to vote that he was intoxicated. This is the mentality of individuals sometimes who make the jury. My point is that HTG and SHTG and patent law is extremely complicated and it will go over the head of most on the jury. Their mindset going in will be “I pay less for the generics when I get my medicine and the brand companies only want to make a lot of money.” We have to sympathize with them and even have them empathize with us by showing we are a one drug company who spent over 700 million dollars in research to develop a product in the hopes to save people from dying from a heart attack. The generics are the greedy demons who are using our product so they can get rich and destroy us and keep us from doing good. Basically our product is the same price as the generics and then somehow explain that Hikma can only use their product for people sick with this. We can use our product for not only those sick people but also these sick people. It will be confusing to the jury why the same product cannot be used on both. This is where hopefully we have a great analogy of some sort which explains that patents protect us so that we can get new lifesaving meds to the market and they put a timeline on them so that they will eventually expire and allow generics to compete over time.
These are just thoughts I’ve contemplated while working today.
I think the odds are still very much against us especially with Judge Andrews probably looking for ways to get rid of this case if possible but if discovery is very strong we may have a fighting chance.
As a side note the closing of April 15th will be the 30 day cut off where we will have to close above a buck to keep from getting the delisting notice.
Although extremely unlikely, a win against Hikma would raise our SP more than approval in any or all of governments of the EU would IMO.
Also, if we win expect lawsuits to come out of the woodwork against our CVD patents. It’s going to happen and is a given.
Finally, I am also worried about the ongoing lawsuit concerning monopolizing IPE supply. I don’t know how that will pan out but concerned.
But what do I know. Just random opinions.
Haven't posted in some time on AMRN board. I'll try and throw out my ideas on the appeal today but bottom line is this is going back to Judge Andrews for jury trial or summary judgement. We've been on the other side of this many times but it is clear that at least 2 of the 3 judges (and it sounds like all 3) are on our side. We finally get a court victory since our win with the FDA many years ago but it is clear we are back in the game and get to share our story hopefully in front of a jury and not summary judgement that Hikma induced infringement. Really proud of how this lawyer handled himself with clarity and step by step process. Reminded me of Marjac.
This is very big news IMO CB because it gives us insight on where the negotiations in Spain are currently at!
Thank you for your ongoing diligence to try and support and sustain the company and the medication. Especially with weekly scripts, monthly UK numbers and being an advocate for an increase in the SP. I haven't posted for some time due to life situations but your efforts, along with many others have been appreciated.
I probably see this as very big news a little differently than some here.
Although
Thanks NS. A decision should be any day. I anticipate Friday at the latest.
A little on dark pools but may not be helpful. I'm sure there are better sources explaining this. Most likely the 6 million after hour trade was done in one of these private trading systems with an institution either unloading or swallowing up these shares. Hopefully they put in a trade willing to buy 6 million shares at 1.44. If so and the markets are up tomorrow, I believe we will start heading back up a bit.
Take care and hope you are doing well.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/050614/introduction-dark-pools.asp#:~:text=How%20Do%20Dark%20Pools%20Affect,the%20security%20available%20to%20trade.
Looks like Israel's MOH approved V similarly as approved and prescribed in the US and not the limitations seen in UK and EU from what I can tell.
At least they got this part right:
Well that answers the question whether Northstar is marketing yet or not.
Kinda sad that the medical advisor wasn't even for sure "when it would be available" even though it is already on market.
Appreciate the breakdown of generics as well Raf. Very helpful.
I just got off the phone with the medical manager at Northstar RX. She verified that it is on the list of their new product launch but she doesn't know yet the timeline for availability of the the generic V onto the market. Sounds like it could be tomorrow or months. Strictly a guess but my guess is sooner than later.
I see the pic you sent but it doesn't look like their "our products" section has been updated yet showing it. I'm sure it will though
Thx Raf. I'll take it!
Also appreciate the info on new generic.
Amarin holding market better than I anticipated in January with the insurance coverage changes.
Hopefully if we can get through 2023 we'll start seeing substantial and upward growth from that point onward with EU movement. of Vaskepa.
Hello Dukesking,
I believe Sarissa sent out the request for proxy vote after hours on Jan 10th. We closed on the 10th at 1.72. We closed on 1/6 at 1.44 and we had our JP Morgan conference on the 7th I believe. The reason I remember this is I sent an email to my siblings letting them know that I had invested a 5 figure dollar amount from our mother's account into Amarin and anticipated it being around 2 dollars by the end of the year and that it had been purchased around the 1.17 and less dollar amount for her. I warned them that the quick profit in 1 week meant nothing with a growth stock with such risk. Her other investments are secure and protected.
I believe I have always tried to be respectful of those who have posted here regardless of their position or mindset.
Perhaps if I go back and read all my posts I will see exceptions to this and for this I was wrong.
I would hope for the same respect but this the agency of each person to decide how they will interact with others seen or unseen.
I am probably one of the most transparent posters here but it doesn't mean that I agree or go along with the majority opinion at all times.
Unkind words are not going to stop me from posting but for those who my posts unintentionally offend, I would recommend putting me on ignore.
My purpose is not to make anyone more stupid than they were before reading my posts or to manipulate through false information or outright lies the share price or perception of the company.
I'm not saying that you are doing this but I am saying if you feel this is my goal then you are mistaken. Best of luck on your trades.
Thanks Raf.
CaptB and Raf, sent you an email. If you feel comfortable responding it would be appreciated but if not then I understand the time constraints you each have.
Let's hope that somehow pieces have been put in place for a sell in the coming months.
Unfortunately I have to agree with your assessment. I'm hoping Sarissa already has a buyer in place and negotiations have taken place behind closed doors.
I agree with everything you posted here except KM also has a choice also and I don't see him staying.
My concern is unless they already have a buyer in place, their experience negotiating in EU for price reimbursement is very limited. Appreciate your insight
Things weren't great but they definitely were improving. We were not only cash flow positive in US but actually profitabe for the quarter for the first time in forever. UK was above formulary reimburesment and we were making ground with Spain. We had moved up finally above 1.30 into the 1.40's.
You may be right and Denner works his magic and miracle. I am still fully invested with my shares and will be watching closely for the direction he announces and success in moving Amarin in the new path. I know you've been here a long time also. Hopefully this will be a profitable waiting game for both of us.
I'm sure you are saying this tongue in cheek. If not then I'm not on board with your thoughts even though I agree with much of your posts and research.
KM will be out of here before the end of March. He's not going to hang around for the sinking of this Titanic. There's a life boat with his name on it and others will jump at the chance to have him on their team. I'm not trying to be obstinate or a contrarian but this is not what we needed at this point in our development IMO.
I understand what you are saying Hayward but we had just turned the corner financially and UK was moving forward.
Our stock jumped up into the 1.40s after the preliminary CC report and upgrades from analyst. It was just AFTER this that Sarissa posted their proxy fight.
I purchased a very substantial amount of shares around 1.18- 1.20 if I remember correctly to go with my shares I have had forever and bought my mother's at the end last year around 1.15-1.17 I believe. I saw change and finally an upward trend at that time. I had waited over a year accumulating cash for the right time.
Then there was discussions about scripts falling at the first of the year (which they have slightly fallen) but doing much better than I anticipated.
I have already shared my thoughts on why we settled the Healthnet suit and anticipate we could be selling Brand Generic before the end of 2023.
I was anticipating a possible minimal profit by Q4 2023 but it was clear by Tom that 2023 would be a losing year with 2024 as the ongoing and growing profit year.
I thought the timing from Sarissa was suspect but their plans were obvious. We went up over 2 bucks since then d/t Sarissa's fight and institutions wanting to be involved in the new improved Amarin and thinking this would be the knight in shining armor.
I anticipate it returning back to low 1's or lower especially if interest rates continue to rise and we don't have a soft landing with recession risk. I had Sarissa down eventually selling us around 5.75-7.75. I'm not for sure this will be the range now with us underqualified in reimbursement in EU and now looking to sell the company instead of someone wanting to buy the company. I could and hope I am wrong. This basically is a company run solely by Sarissa and this is new ground for them. Not new ground in selling a company but new ground in building up/marketing and negotiating reimbursement for a new drug.
Hopefully Denner will make an announcement soon on what the plans are going forward with Amarin. Good luck to us longs. We are going to need it.
Exactly. This could blow up in their faces. I also expect employees jumping ship behind the scenes as well. We won't unfortunately know about this though.
And unfortunately Sarissa's understanding of EU reimbursement and role out experience are minimal.
Unless they already have a buyer in mind this could be a disaster.
I was concerned during the proxy fight that Sarissa's legal firm could not even successfully put together their proxy without Amarin assisting them along the way and directing them on what the UK laws were.
Pharmacydude pretty much spelled this out to all of us with a post about a month ago on what was going to happen and how value of the stock would behave. It looks like he was spot on so far and we will see if the major institutions jump ship with way too much risk currently. My thoughts are that we will continue to have a sell off.
I've got to decide now whether the risks outweigh the benefits. For now I'm staying on board but I anticipate a substantial decrease in share price over the next several weeks to months and not purchasing any more shares d/t risk/benefit.
Just my opinion and disappointed that it has come to this with such a valuable asset.
Right now SP is unchanged AH so that is a positive however.
Agreed ggwpq. And the truth is that JT's strategy to tie up the inventory would have been a wise move if we had not had Du's ruling. As I've posted before, we wouldn't even be Amarin anymore.
When we lost the court ruling we had to scramble to stop the cash bleeding.
This is what KM inherited coming on board.
When Apotex came on board with their generic version, they cost cutted the generic price of V SUBSTANTIALLY. (This I know for a fact).
When they cut their price Hikma and Dr. Reddys followed suit and left us in a dire situation. We went back to the insurers and sold our product at substantially less price with promise of brand being sold for certain time commitments.
We then had to go back and work deals with the suppliers (rework the contracts paying penalties for not taking the inventory but losing a lot less than if we had kept our contractual agreements under the old contracts.
UK is coming along and so far US is stabilizing with slight loss still occurring.
If anyone expects us to make a profit this year it is extremely unlikely. As Tom said on the CC, we'll be losing cash for 2023.
2024 we should start becoming profitable with increased profits each quarter and the markets grow.
KM can adjust as the new board directs. He's got a ton of experience in Europe and is a very talented and capable individual. He needs to stay IMO even though it isn't the popular opinion on this MB.
Concerning China.
Just now catching up on CC and 10-K. Sorry for not posting in so long.
I said I would admit if I was wrong and the truth is I was wrong.
No need for me to wait until March 15th to say I was wrong on my prediction with China decision. My research and study showed that Covid held up final Chinese government processes by about 3 weeks.
KM mentioned a little over a month which was a little longer than my expectations but Eddingpharm has updated Amarin since then.
From the 10-K posted today:
I listened and watched the shareholder meeting as well as the SVB Conference.
Read all the Proxy Forms which have come out.
As posted in the past, I've taken all the information I could glean and
voted all mine and my mother's votes Against changes (voted the white vote).
I agree that Amarin has put the retail investor on the back shelf and now scrambling to include them in this extremely important time. That is clear. I can live with their treatment if we can eventually sell this company for 8-10 or greater. I also believe that shareholder respect from Amarin will continue to improve.
I don't see however any ideas Sarissa has come up with which would increase the future value of Vaskepa/Vascepa other than a quick significantly discounted sale. Sarissa's latest lies concerned AMRN allegedly purposely asking the registrar NOT to accept the Blue cards. Amarin today sent out a statement by the registrar themselves showing that this once again is a blatant lie or at best twisted significantly to make it appear that Amarin is illegally trying to throw the election.
Before this they said that Amarin purposely delayed getting the voting materials to Sarissa and shareholders and locked in the share owner by date to make it difficult for shareholders to gain back their shares which may have been loaned. Once again Amarin clarified that this is nothing more than lies.
I don't like the way shareholders overall have been dealt with by Amarin but Sarissa is not the answer IMO. The $175ish we are making in UK is not discounted or refunded. That is the price it sales for and right now the formulary coverage is doing great! This by itself will be significant money and over time will fund UK as well as start funding Spain. If Sarissa had negotiated with UK we would be sitting at $125-130/script IMO and if they get control of the board, Spain won't be around 155-160 which I am estimating but will be around 130ish also. That will set the precedent for Italy, Netherlands this year and eventually France next year.
For me it isn't about "gettting even for shafting the shareholder", or "I'll teach those greedy, selfish, arrogant jerks who really owns this company", or "I'm tired of these guys lying to us over and over and collecting shares at our expense". It is about us FINALLY being on the right track after being involved in Amarin for over a decade and maximizing value. I believe they have learned their lesson with treatment of shareholders. I know 99% of those posting on this board don't agree with this assessment. I just want my investment for my mother and my family to be maximized.
We just had 2 of the biggest leading independent proxy firm verify Sarissa's purposes. They also have verified their recommendations on what is the wisest direction for shareholders to vote. I'm not saying that their recommendations alone would be enough to change my vote to Amarin but it should be definitely considered just Iike I try and read the institiutional recommendations on the direction Amarin is going. I didn't vote just because of their recommendations but I do put stock in an independent assessment. I'm not voting where Amarin was in the past but I'm voting from where they are currently will take us. I've taken advantage of the low share price as I did before the Reduce-It results and maximized my shares and now it is just a matter of patiently waiting until around the middle of this decade for the merger and finally be rewarded for this hellish ride.
A couple of predictions,
1. I will predict if Amarin does end up winning that we will hear the same conspiracy theories related to voting in other political arenas which is that Amarin rigged the voting and didn't count all the blue votes. It won't be true but that will be the newest conspiracy theory shared.
2. I also predict if Sarissa gains control we will go up in share price at least initially and if Amarin wins we will go down significantly. When it is sold between 5.75-7.75 we will hear that unfortunately that was all Sarissa could get for Amarin after Amarin management ran it into the ground (even though I believe it could touch 10 plus in BO for those who patiently wait until we've maximized value in EU which also will show our international partner deals that they also can get close to the EU pricing in several of the major international markets.
3. I also believe that we don't move hardly at all SP this year until probably 3rd quarter when we see UK benefits.
4. Also, we just went through the second round of negotiations with Spain. This is a little sooner than I expected. Initally I was saying we have Spain approval by end of May but this could be moved up not to end of April.
I still have Italy and Netherlands by end of October.
France isn't happening this year most likely.
We won't hear much on our partnerships until we get Spain, Italy and Netherlands approval. Once this is set then we will be negotiating with our partners and use the pricing in these countries already approved to negotiate our partnership agreements in the ROW even though the price of V sold in some of the ROW countries will be less.
Also a disclaimer,
I've been wrong MANY times in the past especially with timelines and share price in time. For instance I feel that China will be announced by EO February (and asked for a 2 week reprieve into middle of March in case my 3-4 week closure of PRC d/t Covid was off). KM said that the gov't was closed for a month which I am sure is more accurate and also they had their Chinese New Year. I will admit I am wrong though if like I posted before we don't have a decision by mid March.
Like I said everyone. Let's don't cut off the nose to spite our face when we are just a year from significant share price I believe.
Working a double shift tonight thanks to Judge Du and our wonderful law team's decision with hiring the prominent law firm and holding our trial in Nevada but so be it. We are finally on the right track. Now I just have to go hard a few more years until EU and ROW finally recognize the value of Vascepa.
Best to all longs regardless of the direction you have decided to vote.
Nice find. Thx for posting.
I am sure this is the meeting which GG mentioned he/she was invited to about a week ago. Unfortunately I have to work at this time so hopefully it will be archived.
Thanks Zip,
It would be interesting to get more information on this.
Sarissa says this is a way of thinking outside the box and Amarin should have done this.
Amarin says they have already considered this multiple times and won't work in a European based healthcare system.
It would be nice for both sides to show their numbers according to estimated uptake and see who is right. Math doesn't generally give you a pass and doesn't lie (unless you are a really good accountant ). But d/t competition we won't know at least at this point what's the truth, whether Sarissa is blowing smoke or whether Amarin missed an opportunity thinking outside of the box.
My understanding from the CC and Quarterly calls is that Germany offered a price that was actually below Amarin's cost of goods so they had to walk away. From the JP Morgan Conference
NS,
Yes, still profitable. It does however set the bar for negotiations with the 3 Bigs still present as well as our international negotiations. I think this is a key difference between Sarissa and Amarin management. Sarissa is ready to settle for the $120-140 range and start selling it now with the clock ticking on patent protection and cash on hand and Amarin is trying to keep it around $170 and willing to progress through further negotiations.
There are pros and cons to both of course. I am currently helping my mother sell off items in her estate. I'm listing over 100 picture frames she has of all different sizes and quality (some brand new, many nice and silver and gold plated and some not so nice) for $100. Someone can buy these and maximize profits by selling them on their own and double their money easily. For me it's not worth it. I want to just get rid of them but make some money for her instead of selling one for 10, another for 1 and another for 5. I don't have the time or desire of selling them individually at a maximum profit (similar to many arguments here and probably Sarissa's argument).
When I sold her riding mower however, I was willing to set my price for her at a slightly discounted rate but still at a solid price knowing that the interest in this item is much more popular and the interest is much greater. It took several months to sell it but it sold at the price I had asked for it.
This once again is my philosophy with my Amarin investment. I'm willing to set a good price and discounted slightly and wait for a greater return than at a much greater discount to move it out of inventory quickly.
Greater risk for loss but also a greater return. Doesn't mean it is the right thing for others and I respect that but I believe it is for my family at this time in my life.
I look forward to seeing what is shared at the Conference on Tuesday. Have a great Sunday.
NS,
I was digging into this more today and saw where it is dated September 16, 2022.
I believe that this may have been shared around October last year and doesn't appear to be an updated version.
I believe that this was recommended to the MOH but at a 30% discount from Amarin's price which was the sticking point in not getting final approval.
I may be wrong but I believe that this was the initial price point the Dutch gov't recommended and Amarin is still in negotiations for a higher price point.
Once again, I could be wrong and appreciate you posting your findings but this may actually be old news and I don't see evidence that discussions have moved forward.
Best,
Studythosestocks
Excellent news! Once again a great find!
This says that the Care Institute advises that the MOH approve this for coverage for those within the specified class of individuals.
Now we just have to wait for final approval from the MOH (VWS).
This one has moved through much faster than I anticipated.
I was expecting before October but should be finalized much earlier.
Things are finally rolling in EU. I anticipate Spain finalization no later than end of May.
Still expecting China by end of Feb.
Italy before end of Oct.
France most likely not until 1 q of 2024.
Take care and appreciate your research and sharing.
Thx Raf. I'll take uneventful at this time with so much craziness. Have a good weekend.
First of all. I apologize ahead of time MRM not putting this in a paragraph format but against the clock this evening and trying to get it off before I have to run.
Don't think I am Ram but maybe from yours and others viewpoint I am and I can respect your view. Sharing my opinions but i don't feel that I am purposely sharing misinformation. Look at the slide "Amarin behind launch of Vaskepa in Europe" They quote KM saying "In Europe, we are on-track to deliver on our commitment to obtain pricing and reimbursement approval in up to eight European markets and to launch in up to six European markets this year" This was from the Oct 27, 2022 conference call. Then Sarissa says that KM promises 6 launches, delivers 5 launches and loses Germany. What Amarin said was that they are "on track to deliver on (their) commitment to obtain........... and to launch in UP TO 6 European markets this year. They launched in 5 which is certainly UP TO 6 markets but this is not what Sarissa says, they said that KM promised 6 launches which is not what he said or even made a promise. At that point he said that they are on track on their commitment which the 6th got shot down with Spain's governance recommending to the MOH to not approve the list of drugs in December d/t budget concerns. The Spain negotiations are ongoing. This is an old legal trick often used to discredit what someone says and manipulate it into a different meaning to try and show someone lied. Also at the same CC KM mentioned that Germany was done. Yet, Sarissa makes it appear that Germany was the 6th lost. That wasn't the case. Germany was off the table with the loss of arbitration. It wasn't until Spain that the 6th was off the table. Sarissa knows this as well.
Look at slide "The China Vascepa approval hasn't occurred as promised now expected in 1Q23." In their statement they are correct in the statements from past CC/10K's and quotes but they leave out the quote from Amarin that the part that the reason was moved from end of 2022 to Q1 2023 is because of Covid and Chinese governments closed down for somewhere between 3-4 weeks. Once again, facts stated but leave out the statement showing the justification of why delayed since this would not benefit their campaign.
Look at slide "Amarin asks not to be held accountable for goals......." Once again Amarin delivered on 5 of 6 commitments which isn't too shaggy and yet they say that Amarin won't take responsibility for missing on one with their quote "up to 6" and use an anology of a person can speak up to 100 languages when they only know 2? If Amarin would have committed to 6 and got 1 then maybe the analogy fits but they are trying to say that Amarin is giving outrageous promises and not fulfilling on any of them. Once again, twisting the words and then trying to prove their point with an extreme analogy.
See slide "Amarin disingenously released record.............." Sarissa conveniently leaves out all the mistakes that they made on their initial letter and the multiple times AMRN reached out to them to resolve the issues with either no response or slow response on Sarissa's part to try and get the proxy so that it legally follows English law. We have until February 22nd to vote. Are you serious that those who truly want to vote won't have a chance? That is complete nonsense. Amarin lays out what really is happening behind the scenes which Sarissa does not address after laying out the folowing but come back to Amarin is purposely trying to sabotage the vote (when everyone still has over 2 weeks from today!).
The voting deadlines that Sarissa cites are nothing more than voting cutoffs set up by the banks and brokers through which most shareholders hold their shares. In fact, Amarin unsuccessfully tried to persuade the depositary bank, Citi, to extend the deadline.
Sarissa and its advisors are fully aware of these facts. If Sarissa cannot be trusted to provide you with the truth on simple proxy voting mechanics, you should question the validity of its other assertions.
Amarin's also has misinformation and bending the facts also but you asked where Sarissa had done this in theirs. There is much more than even these few examples. I unfortunately don't have the time to go back and forth on the different points and I wouldn't change anyone's mind anyway but I am trying to be transparent on how I am decifering the materials. These tricks are as old as time. Below is a great example where a man named Zeezrom who was a lawyer tried to trick the congregation into killing a prophet of God by manipulation and twisting his words. You may not be interested but below is a reference if you are interested in this form often still used every day in our court system as seen with Hikma/Dr. Reddy sharing half truths and removing data which goes against their theses.
https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/scriptures/bofm/alma/11?lang=eng
I understand that there will probably be many unkind comments to discredit me and say I work for Amarin or that I am a fool to try and encourage me off the board since it would work against the majority of shareholders here. I agree that if Amarin wins the share price plummets again. I also agree that Amarin has used the same tactic in some of its presentation as well to support their side. No one's hands are completely clean IMO.
Thanks for your insight MRM.
Already looked at it and studied it.
It clarified some of Amarin's points made but left out other parts of their presentation.
I try and take time to study out each side and discern what their angle is.
I am in a minority for sure but the odds have been against me most of my life so nothing new.
Being in the minority won't stop me from voting the direction I feel will be in my family's best interest just as you have the right and I am sure you will do with your shares as well.
That is the wonderful thing about you and I both owning a portion of a public company (which unfortunately has not been a priority by AMRN up until now). Take care and appreciate your insight.
I haven't voted yet and will wait until after the upcoming conference next week.
Misinformation and half truths unfortunately from both sides filled with facts which support their side.
I'm still leaning toward AMRN (white vote).
What I really want is a compromise of 2 to 3 seats on the board.
I truly feel that shareholder representation has been dismally missing from day one with Amarin and the connection between our board and the common shareholder is/was nonexistent until they (Amarin) were "forced" by Denner to play.
Alot of this could have been avoided had we been more proactive in discussions with Sarissa. That's not to say that Sarissa was an angel and played fair either with not responding until right before the general meeting and then demanding their candidates placed(bully tactic). Like I said, no one is an angel in this scenario and if we think one side is all good and the other side is all bad we are" fooling yourself if you don't believe it." Styx (to take a theme from the latest Sarissa presentation).
Now we are out another $7 million which pretty much was our earnings for Q2.
I'm still on the Amarin side because I see things finally developing. UK roll out appears to be going even bettter than I expected with uptake on formularies. We've cut spending significantly. We should have Spain on our side by end of May at the latest IMO and from my research (very similar tactics as in UK but not near as visible what is happening behind the scenes). China approval by 1st Q (my prediction is by end of this month).
I see Italy and Netherlands by end of Q3 at the latest but no France until Q1 2024.
We have our FDC moving forward which I am afraid that Sarissa may stop in a cost saving measure since that is more down the road that in the next 1 to 1 1/2 year plan that I see them having.
I see Sarissa settling with the countries for lower pricing of V as well. Not a bad strategy if trying to determine a value for AMRN if MA is the priority.
I don't blame anyone for voting Blue. It's been a butt kicking journey and many are sick and tired and ready for the journey to work toward a sale to begin.
I'm looking at it as if the median has been 37% on those companies they have had seats that ain't terrible but the Medicines company will skew that number quite a bit and I want a whole lot higher than 37% from where we stand when they win their 7 seats.
I will take 5.75-7.75 with Sarissa and it sure beats 1.25/share but I would much rather hang in there another year or two past the Sarissa sale for 12-15/best case scenario. Anything in the 8-10 range and I'm a happy camper. Main thing is has Amarin woken up that the retail investor means something and our shareholders need a voice.
Amarin BOD need to buy some shares from their own pocket and show everyone that they have faith in the company too. If they win or can settle, they need to put at least 2 directors on the board and not forget what could have happened.
If this board is a representation of the voting of the general shareholder mindset though, Sarissa is getting 7 of the 15 seats.
As a side note, timing is everything. I bought roughly 13,000 shares for my mother at the end of Dec and she is already up over 85% on her investment.
Not so much for me but the significant shares I bought in Q 4 around 1.18-1.21 have certainly performed well. Who knows the future.
Best of luck to all but right now I'm still White card to be transparent to the board.