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Don't ever become a pessimist... a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events.
Robert A. Heinlein
So let's enjoy the ride.
Moving Forward
Choices are.
1. Cut losses now
2. Wait for next pump and bail
3. Hold idea that there my be some real basis of hope and stand pat for now.
My own choice is bail at next pump that isn't based on a deal to finish the damn well. Anything else says screw job. But we did know the ricks.
Merger Off
But they get full ownership of the lease at the same price.
They spill the chemicals
The real issue isn't the fracking per se. It's the cavilier way in which many drillers/frackers handle the chemicals. They resist all efforts to have to register what they are using so when something it's found in the water it's hard to trace it back to them. The basic problem is they get sloppy, spill the chemicals on the ground which lets it perq to the aquifer. And want to not be liable for the damage if they caused it.
So while I support drilling for the energy we need I also want the drillers to be required to have to do so in a way that doesn't threaten an absolute life requirement (water). Now exactly what's the problem with that?
Good Spin Bad Spin
Cleaning up the sheet for a partner.
Or the note holder grabbing what they can , while they can.
At times it's like reading tea leaves. In fact reading tea leaves would be easier. With all the public clamor about gas in many places and drilling all over to find even more it's getting harder to not be skeptical about the lack of a few bucks to finish this puppy.
Question I ask myself is what am I missing. Who benefits (does anyone?) by what's happening.
As any poker layer knows there's a time where you just ride to the end. We'll see.
I'm with Fred
And that's why this is a game for grownups
Always a simple question of buy, sell or hold. As you say try a flip and miss you lose money chasing a rising price. But flip and hit and you can make major increase to holding for the eventual breakout without investing more cash.
Sell a rally that doesn't top and again lose potential. But sell a rally that peters out or dips and feel pretty smart.
Or believing in the eventual success just ignore the ups and downs.
As I said a simple proposition. Buy sell or hold. But a game for grownups who make their best choices and don't whine about the result.
Buy Sell Hold?
The never ending decision.
So who wants to talk about where we're going short term.
Lacking real news I see Mainland returning to it's old pattern of drifting downward. Since anyone who has spent the time knows the only reason to move this solidly upward is the smell of gas.
This being a holiday for some we might just sit today but I wouldn't be surprised that the trend continues downward.
A major reversal could happen anytime if the money gets found to prove the field. But for now I see no reason for strong upside and several for gradual downside.
Just my opinion of course.
Fortune to us all
Gee I would have said
We get total inaction from a bunch of greedy folks who will burn the house down if they don't get their way. But that's just my opinion of course. Best to leave the politics out of it I'd say.
I'm stickin
So please stop whining about how you was duped. Everyone here is an adult and you made a decision likely based on get rich quick dreams. If you think it was wrong then be smart and take your lumps and sell as it will only get worse if you're right. If you think this is just what it seems. A cash crunch in very weird times then place your bet. There's gas in that hole and someone is going to see the PROFIT in getting to it. Double down and stay.
Fortune to us all.
Always a speculative play
From the start. And the factual basis for being in this play has not changed IMO. The well is real. The results are real. The issue is money and until it's solved in some fashion we are subject to wildness. But I'll say it as before it is one hell of a buying opportunity.
I bought this to go to the end. Since the facts on the ground are unchanged then I am sticking.
Fortune to us all
Fact No well No Money
It's easy and something I have said before. If the well is not completed then the play is a bust. So if a private offering of restricted shares is what it takes then it's what it takes. Better that then endless attempts at financing that just isn't happening now. If the well pans out then this private offering will not be significant against the expected gain.
So I am buying since I believe in both the management of Mainland and the play.
Buy more next week
I'm with Mike on this. There are multiple factors at work that I believe are the source of the difficulty in closing a funding deal. So have no problem reducing my basis by buying more if I have the coin and the price is as attractive as it is.
I also agree that there appear to be some shorts hanging about. But that doesn't trouble me as they can only hurt me if I buy their BS and panic sell.
This always was and is a speculative stock. And the big gain comes from being willing to ride the roller coaster. And take advantage when the inevitable dips happen.
And the answer as to when? In its own time and not before.
Fortune to us all
Let's assume piggie is right
The question is do they then finish the well and get into production or is this just some elaborate scheme as piggie intimates frequently.
If the could raise the money to complete by selling shares what would be the end result given the expected reserves that would be proven?
My guess is that we won't see financing until they are ready to proceed. Remember when ou rent money you pay from the time you get it in hand. So what's happening now is trying to tie down a workover schedule and meld that with the financing.
Given the uncertainty in the market I suspect that financing sources are reluctant to make ironclad commitments since they can't know what way the overall market or economy will go. In other words it is difficult times and management is dealing with it.
Thought leases had been extended
Just my memory but I thought I recalled that the leases had been extended for a year already to 2012 instead of 11.
I say patience. Wouldn't it be nice to have all the answers now? To know when the completion will happen and how it wil be paid for.
What we don't see is hyperbolic promo. Which to me is a good sign that management is doing things in the best way possible for us all even if it takes longer. (piggie's repeated squeals notwithstanding).
As others have noted you have insiders buying stock in AEXP (merger partner) at retail. A very positive sign IMO. And Directors putting up cas to keep the wheels going around and the lights on. Also a big deal.
The phones are being answered and while the answers may not be all we would love we are getting real people on the phone which to me is huge. Scammers have no problem not answering the phone.
The basic equation and question remains unchanged. If you believe that the management of Mainland are on the up and up and are moving this forward in the best available fashion then you stand pat. Or like me add a few more. If not then you should sell now and invest elsewhere.
As Always fortune to us all.
I believe what we've been told
The issue with the merger is just the paperwork. As I understand how easy it is to have other important things to do so paperwork just gets put on back burner. I know to folks who worship paperwork this is heresy. But the only paperwork I really worry about comes in a roll.
Now if delaying the loan to when there are equipent/crews available I might buy. Considering if you were the lender you'd want to be sure your loan got the job done and not just burned up in day to day operations.
IMO of course.
You ever try to push a string
The answer to why is always money. And in the case of a government agency it's also the willingness to take on pushing a boulder.
Functionally the merger is meaningless. Hence the lack of urgency IMO. It will get done in its time and no real reason or advantage to make it move faster then it does.
It is encouraging that Directors in AEXP keep spending their money. If any are in a position to know if this whole deal is solid it would be them.
Fortune to us all
Looks like piggie is short again
Still don't want to say why you bother to hang around here eh piggie? I go with the common thought you're shorting and figure you'll do everything to create a down side panic. But man singing the same old song gets really boring.
Things take time folks. And only in the movies does the hero demand some complicated task be done in 15 minutes and it's done. Finance is a matter of details in the real world and those are being dealt with by all indications. Like a cake or good souffle you have to leave the damn oven closed until it's done or bad stuff happens.
Fortune to us all
Gotta love that baby
Lets all take a breath and a pill.
1. We know we got a shitload of gas
2. Management has their fortunes tied up in this company as well so are well motivated to make it happen.
3. Absolutely no indication or hint of a pump and dump no matter what piggie says. )if it were we'd having glowing news that adds up to nothing)
4. IR answers the phone. Which means that MNLU management is working.
5. required Paperwork is essentially on time and as clear as that stuff gets.
6. No matter where the economy goes in the short run the world needs fuel and NG is well a natural fit.
7. Merger is immaterial from a practical, operational po9int of view. Management has more important things to do and is doing them.
My position. Let the rest of the world go to hell. I'm standing pat on these cards. May go down. Doesn't matter. In the time frame measured in months at best this will get done. IMO of course.
Fortune to us all
I don't want blow by blow updates
I would surely hope there's some negotiatin goin on. But if we were in the loop for every up and down it would be crazy. And would raise the thought in my mind of a deliberate attempt to pump.
In this case we aren't getting a bunch of fluff. It can be (is) somewhat frustrating as we all would like the answer. And to have a firm idea of when the workover will happen as that is the real event IMO.
My guess (and it's just a guess) is they know thay can't have a crew for some time due to the various factors already discussed on the board. So aren't closing the deal on cash because once you take the money the clock starts ticking.
Fortune to us all
We're clearly an event play
Not a technical play.
And we know what event will move this stock. Whether the economy tanks again or not if the well/field is proved out as exploitable then this stock soars. If it isn't then it doesn't. No matter what the overall market is doing. In fact a down market generally might free up speculative money to move MNLU higher for a time. But without the event of working over that well this baby is toast.
I don't see them waiting as the leases will expire. So another year without cash flow means that much closer to the edge. Not going to happen IMO.
My bet. The deal is being struck as we speak. And they will announce it when they can also offer the schedule for the workover as well. Just my O of course.
Fortune to us all
I see 3-4 as a short term minimum.
And you can't have mine at that price unless there's some major reason to change outlook for MNLU.
Once there is gas to sell I expect/believe we see this level regardless of whether we end up in a long term production mode or a buyout. As for the level of the buyout I do expect in the end it is of course dependent on the volume of gas they prove and how far down the infrastructure path they get before they get a credible offer. I've often felt 25 was right once we have gas but that's just gut, not science.
Of course getting there seems the trick but we will.
Fortune to us all
Gee You added a few zeros is my guess
Nowhere near the National Debt I'm afraid.
Assuming we can recover half of the gas in place (and prove it) would make it 7T (that's 7,000,000,000,000 CF) for the field. By my calculations based on 105 Million shares and BHP paying $18.7B for 35tcf of gas reserves so our assumed 7T would be worth 1/5 of that or in the range of 3.74 Billion (no where near the national debt I should add) which would approximate to about $35 per share if we were just bought out in toto that is.
And the mods didn't remove your post because others (like me) choose not to pounce. Let's really leave the political zingers at the door as there is a variety of opinion here and we really, really don't want to turn this place into just another place where folks shout at each other.
Of course if you make different assumptions about recovery you get different answers to the equations. But the math process is incontrovertible.
Fortune to us all.
Come on Big M.. FLY
We seem to be holding against a downward trend in the general market. Some PR could get this to soar (hint hint)
Fortune to us all
You got to love those numbers
Hey King. You know what's nice these numbers. The answer comes out the same each time. 2 plus 2 equals 4 no matter who you are.
All that lovely gas in the ground makes it easier to just let things develop. And not to worry about any sky falling scenarios.
Fortune to us all
Please no politics
Do you have a better place to be?
We talk about patience and that is part of it for sure. But the question you need to answer every day is do you see a better place for your money. My own belief is the low cost of entry, the high liklihood of success and the payoff when it comes make staying with Mainland a good choice. Whether that is next month or 6 months down the road or even a year is immaterial.
Fortune to us all
Snow? Mississippi right?
ANd this happened when? I mean I'd be worried if it was Vermont. But Mississippi? Does gov haley allow snow?
Get the money and lets go
I have confidence that the management is looking/negotiating for the best deal. And given the other factors like crews and such they may not have the same urgency as we feel.
The merger process appears to be in the SEC ballpark right now so that can just rest. As I've said before from a functional point of view it's not really significant. Like all risk takers I'd not be surprised if this just isn't a high priority for management as it is for us guys in the cheap seats.
But I do not sty with Mainland because I've been with it a while. I stay with it because it remains a sweet deal. And like many complicated things is taking a bit jore time to come to fruition then I figured. But it's still a coming IMO.
Fortune to us all.
So what made us pop 8 cents?
Opened my trade interface and saw a .38. So where did that come from ? (piggie already know your answer so you can keep that one)
I'm hopeful we can see some ramp up this week and get some solid PR on the financing deal. But not for any reason other then it's been a while for real PR. I suppose we will see.
Fortune to us all.
Buying Opp Today
The general market is doing that familiar circular spin and heading to the drain. I expect we'll be joining that downtrend just because. So it's a buying opp for anyone with coin and some cool.
Here's hoping I'm totally wrong.
Fortune to us all.
Just follow the bouncing ball
On the new filing. The shares talked about are the merger shares. We know about that. Old news.
On the price movement. Hey folks this is a penny stock (right now) They are by nature volatile. As we have said before until we get some solid news and that workover it's going to bounce around. When it gets cheap buy if you can.
With this debt nonsense who's surprised the price has trended down. But notice closed at .34 In these times I think that's just fine.
Fortune to us all
Let's be clear Gertrude is hot
That's the name of my bike. And she's a sexy large boned girl for sure.
But yes. I agree with your analogy. And I am confident that the folks at Mainland will find the money to get'r done.
Fortune to us all
Bagholder Here
Does that mean you're leaving piggie? Gee, one can always hope.
Today we are going down with the general market. And the current debt limit mess may well be one factor in getting the money for the field and well development.
If I had some coin for more shares I'd surely be buying at this price. If we don't get a debt solution then we may see more dropping until that gets worked out.
My guess on the financing issue is that the folks who would provide the money want to big of a cut compared to what Mainland has already risked. But that is the way of things when you really need the bread. And in these uncertain times when the congress is intent of emulating lemmings it's really not surprising. But since Mainland continues to answer the phone I will sleep just fine. (sorry piggie)
Fortune to us all
So what's on tap today?
Yesterday looks like we are caught in the general movement downward over the debt limit mess. I do think some good PR would counter that but none as yet. I'm thinking a general drift towards .30 unless there's some countervailing development specific to Mainland Resources. No reason to panic at all. But none to celebrate either unfortunately.
Fortune to us all.
Debt clearly the likely route
I'm with mike on this. Sitting on a pile of gas with most of the risk already handled. No doubt (as I said before) in my mind that the implications made in various places that this is a done deal are correct.
But that debt may have a share component or at least an option component as a sweetener. And my opinion that if it puts the money in the bank to finish BV#1 it's a good thing for us even if it could be seen as diluting our current share value. My guess is we are all looking at future value, not current value on this play. eh.
Fortune to us all.
Hate having words put in my mouth
Of course anyone but you, piggie, would notice that I did not say Dilution was preferred or desirable. Or frankly even expected. But given your penchant for selective quotes I am unsurprised.
I say that selling shares (dilution) is not the end of the world nor is it indication of something nefarious or dishonest as you continually imply. It has been used successfully by other companies when there were no other alternatives. (Refraining from returning your insults in kind). As I said clearly (maybe that's why you didn't understand it) if the alternative was sell stock or quit I'd say sell stock.
You clearly have an ulterior motive that you refuse to reveal. That's a fact from reading your complaints for a year. Since my attempt to calmly look at the issue of dilution counters your mindless panic I can see why you find it difficult to understand. But do keep trying as some take longer to learn then others.
Fortune to us all.
Today not bad at all
Given the debt crisis and the general market decline our small decline of .01 on no news speaks of some strength to me.
Nothing outrageous in volume from what I see. Nor any extreme buying either. Looks like just more of our typical pattern for now. The good old wait and see.
My own thought on money is the deal is done and just awaiting the appropriate time to reveal. Mainland absorbed much of the risk getting the well drilled and with test results the remaining risk isn't huge and I'd bet that the right source is already on board. But that's utter speculation on my part. Very hard to see this find left untapped over a few million bucks.
Fortune to us all.
Addressing the ravings is good
piggie serves a useful purpose on the board and as irritating as he is he should not be barred. He forces me to think through his chicken little scenarios with fact and logic. He obviously has an ulterior motive that he won't reveal (though asked repeatedly) that I don't fathom. Perhaps he made some bad choices over the course of the last year in Mainland and feels driven to blame that on anyone but himself. In any case the "Dilution" he squeals about is disclosed as a possibility in the 10Q. It just isn't the conspiracy he wants everyone to believe.
Fortune to us all.
And if dilution is needed so what
Given the upside potentials if the well workover is completed and the well is brought online what is the long term downside of any dilution used to raise the money. Plus it has the positive feature that stock sales raise revenue without incurring debt. Fact is the money for the workover and other operations has to come from somewhere. If it's borrowed it must be paid back. If an asset or a partial asset is sold that asset is no longer available to generate revenue. If more stock is sold then this could reduce our share price for a time. But if the end result is a revenue generating asset that also proves the worth of the field then we win, not lose.
piggie shouts the word "Dilution" and implies that someone is doing something sneaky. When by his quote the possibility has been disclosed clearly. And of course my question to piggie about motives remains? If he owns MNLU with his tale of doom why? If he doesn't why be so concerned that others do? Especially since he seems long on the accusation and short on facts (other then what we all are aware of from 10Q) and almost always appears when the share price is moving upward.
Fortune to us all.