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lets do some ruff figures, and I mean very ruff,,,,but here it is.......
if malampaya took around 3 years to pay off its investments of 3 billion...then lets say they made a bil a year......
I think this most recent year they also made around a bil............lets say earnings,,,,,,although it might have been revenues,,anyway........
lets just say for arguments sake they make a bil a year
and therefore lets just say fep is doing the same...
you wont see that bil a year until after they pay off those loans.they will be building equity surely......but not accumulating cash.........so three years for positive earnings....and lets say its a billion as well..its malampayas clone........and a <p.e. of 3 to 4 but lets leave that aside for now>
a billion multiplied by 70%<fep's share of sc72> is 700 mil,,,,,,,,,according to a recent article released quoting fep's chairman saying, the would be happy with just a small percent just to get this done on a huge find worked by huge companies.....lets use 15% as you say eom..... so thats 105 million per year for fep...... so thats around 24 mil for fecof.......and on its best day if we ever get out of this recession,,,,,,,,,,,,,multiplied by 4 makes this a 100 million market cap........so basically around 20 cents per share in 3 years? netflix did the same thing 1000% return, and it was a no brainer!!! everything would have to go right.......but theres no way I'll see a dollar a share if fep hands over 80% of sc72 for financeing and partnerships......
there is some sound analysis in what i'm saying..its far from detailed and very ruff but i'm not pulling numbers out of the air either....
i'm long fecof but lets not exxagerate anymore.
kentrcrek
I am far from an expert too...but theres a deep flaw in your sentence.....
"I am not an expert but they already have a sucessful well that is how they know 3+ trl cu ft.
how in gods name is this if they havent 1. drilled it yet
and 2. successfully pulled it out?
ask NIDOF who is in the area with their most recent, supposed slam dunk, and how successful it turned out? They burried it my friend ,,,,it was a failure,,,stock was cut in half and has not recovered yet....
Please use the correct terms........I for one know that the majority will call this a great find with great POTENTIAL.....but far from proven..far from succesful.
other things to worry about? no need to find new stuff yet...our plate is full as we speak.........and yet i still think the stock has good potential ,,,getting better everyday that financing gets in place and china stays quiet as we proceed...........
cash cow? wheres the cash right now?.......possibly one day yes,,,,but its not there yet..stock is priced correctly all things considering..........philipines petro will drop hard short term.......
about 6 months ago someone 1,000% more intelligent on this subject than the both of us combined listed the post of the process and potential pitfalls of this time consuming investment...........Yes,I keep thinking malampaya too.......but lets not call an apple an orange...its not succesful.YET............and no guarantees either.
sounds good....... I think the best news to keep this price moving will be if china comes out and publicly anounces they wont mess with recto bank and that it clearly belongs to the philipines....hopefully coinciding with news that the latest survey was reconfirmed......maybe a pop to 15 cents...........and then the first successful well drilled?? pop to 25 cents?..........and then from then on it would be the barrels of oil being pumped out to start repaying its loan....or how close the 3.5 tcf is in its production........But most importantly it will be on how well of a deal and how much of a cut of their own sc72 will be given to the big boys and how much left for fep..and then once again divide by 4 for fecofs 25%..........Malampaya makes me salivate....but if they <fep>are left with just 10 to 15% of that sc72 contract....then fecof shooting to hyberbolic 1 and 2 dollar range wont happen........maybe 40 cents a year from now? trying to be conservative....any thoughts?
yes,,,good on fep..i was wondering why it didnt move on monday considering how well the spinoff did...................the fact that philex didnt drop considering its shares were spun off shows strength in philex
...was monday a holiday in england?anyways.FEP specifically is overdue
when the board is overpessimistic....I try to balance things out with the potential...the risk reward scenario,,,,,,,when there is nothing but optimism on this board I feel the urge to bring some balance to this board with time frames.....ceilings...etc........philex petro had a huge run and fecof had AN AVERAGE daily move of 12%......COULD BE A HUGE BUYING OPPORTUNITY......could be that they simply have a much smaller ownership ..........and god forbid the insiders know that the philex board controlling fecof might sell them out in ways of contracts and partnerships going forward............Philex was and always will be the sure bet..diversified company with total control over fep and fecof...in theory fecof should beat them all in market cap % increase but this is a cruel world and they dont have the control over their own destiny.
All things considering ,today was a very good day.....I own combined around 800 thousand shares........i will hold........but i will also stay my old self and look at the statements in their full context and not just highlight statements out of context my old friend. GLTA
to roughly answer your question about fecofs worth reflected in philex petros share price today, which by the way is not absolute due to the thin float of those shares too......You can guestimate fecof should be trading at roughly 23 to 28% of philex petros marketcap<philex petro has more going for it than just a one trick pony in fep like fecof does>.........and a volatile market cap at that.
your guess is as good as mine.........there were many positives but you have to look at the statements in full to balance out the true nature of this thing.......
when they say that they could take 6 more years to develope this...I wonder if thats how long i have to wait to see the beginning of a malampaya?
when they say even if they hold just a modest stake in sc72 when they find partners to join in....How modest a stake?? are we talking 10% of their 24%stake of the 70% ownership in sampaguita??..............eefff me....my cut sounds like its getting smaller and smaller even if there is a bigger field.......so basically we have a ceiling.....whats the ceiling I dont know but we have one if they can only finance so much themselves.
the volume was hott,,,,,but the price move was weak.
consider all things.................today was a positive day as far as interest in fep ownership thru ppc'c bigger cut it seems......ppc claims 64% of fep.....i still dont understand how or when they got that big of the pie but fecof has a little more than one third of that........might help to figure out valuations only somewhat......
good luck to all..I'd love to see this hit a dollar,,,,,but with such good news it seems we'd be lucky to see 20 cents anytime soon.........which is still a huge run
glta
20%jump?
hahahaha....... you gotta love the market makers.....someone buys 60 dollars worth today and the stock is up 20%?,,,,,,,,,,,,hopefully philex shareholders who get ppc shares and then wonder what fep is all about......might come around Fecof and help make this more liquid for us...........otherwise we will have an extremely volatile stock.......even 2 years from now i could see it trading for 75 cents and then closing at 30 cents that day because someone sold 100k shares.
correction on ppc from my numbers being incomplete...I just copied this from fep link on yahoo......ppc being valued at 200 mil rather than 48 mil makes alot more sense...it says ppc will have a 64% ownership in fep....i guess thats the division of philexs 38% and fecofs 25-26%?..still doesnt make sense to me...(you would think that they could only claim half of fecofs fep shares since they control 51% of fecof)...i wonder if the 64.4% is a typo.......I know theres one other major shareholder around 30something percent in fep.... all things considering...if fep will be a multi billion dollar find like malampaya....then owning ppc is better...but as of today theres more value in fecof...heres the post:
philex has had control over 51% of fecofs shares for the last 3 years or so....they bought a big chunk around 2 pennies(50%).....they were able to change the board of directors completely last year and put all their guys in, just before they anounced their goldmine was a complete bust. Theres always been a worry that they could sell us out and buyout fecof for pennies of what its actually worth( i definitely feared that) and we have debated it in the past but thankfully it never panned out.........instead it seems having Philex meant more support by the philipines govt. as in which was the case of making deals for navy ships to protect sc72..etc....
thats why i said 38% and half of 24-25% of Fecof shares of fep.........being that philex owns half of fecof.
fep's website says fecof has 25% of fep..........but i have seen other articles released that has fecofs share of fep has dwindled to around 23%
I believe philexs main driving force for buying fecof has always been its ownership in fep........Philex had made in the past an outright buyout offer for FEP and they rejected.......so it seems they got what they wanted (control) of fep indirectly from fecofs shares.
Data provided by Capital IQ, except where noted.
Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday)5: 10.10M
Enterprise Value (Sep 5, 2011)3: N/A
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): N/A
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2012)1: N/A
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): N/A
Price/Book (mrq): 1.77
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: NaN
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: N/A
Financial Highlights
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: Dec 31
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Mar 31, 2011
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): N/A
Operating Margin (ttm): N/A
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): -5.11%
Return on Equity (ttm): -44.74%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): N/A
Revenue Per Share (ttm): N/A
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): N/A
Gross Profit (ttm): N/A
EBITDA (ttm): -552.73K
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): -2.85M
Diluted EPS (ttm): -0.01
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): N/A
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 1.99M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.01
Total Debt (mrq): 295.44K
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 5.28
Current Ratio (mrq): 4.60
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 0.01
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): -482.63K
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -279.19K
according to the yahoo information on fecof....fecof has about a penny a share in cash,,,,,,,and therefore has a bookvalue of about one penny as well...i would assume as fep goes higher fecofs book value would increase too...........but anyway, the point is that you are buying a 2 cent stock for much less since it has about 1.7 mil in cash......so if the market cap is 8 mil its like youre buying it at around a 6 mil market cap.......just one more reason to hold or buy more......good luck.
By Agence France-Presse, Updated: 9/3/2011
Philippines hopes sea dispute with China should ease
The Philippines hopes a territorial dispute over the South China Sea will ease after President Benigno Aquino's trip to China, the nation's military chief said Saturday.
But Manila will continue to build its naval patrol capability, General Eduardo Oban said, adding that he expects the Philippine navy to acquire a second Hamilton-class cutter from the United States next year.
The broad hope is that the dispute with China and other claimants over supposedly oil and gas-rich areas of the sea will simmer down following Aquino's August 30 to September 3 state visit, he told reporters.
"That would probably be translated into such an eventuality," Oban said.
Aquino and his host President Hu Jintao issued a joint statement Thursday stressing their commitment to a peaceful dialogue to address the sea dispute.
Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam also claim parts of the South China Sea, which straddles vital sea lanes.
Ahead of the trip the Philippine government had accused China of committing aggressive and unlawful acts in the area claimed by the Philippines, including firing on Filipino fishermen, laying buoys and markers, and hounding an oil vessel.
Oban said Filipino navy patrols over the Philippine-claimed areas of the sea would continue.
"It is our mandate to protect the resources of our islands, so we will have to perform that mandate anywhere in the archipelago," he said.
The navy is to get two more Hamilton-class cutters, with the first of the two to arrive early next year, he said.
The first cutter, renamed the Gregorio del Pilar, sailed into Manila Bay last month after a three-week voyage from the United States.
The navy said the ship would be deployed to protect the country's exclusive economic zone and its oil and gas exploration activities in the South China Sea.
The Philippine Air Force also expects to purchase six jets to train personnel to eventually fly fighter jets, he said, but gave no timetable
By Agence France-Presse, Updated: 9/3/2011
US cable says Philippines' Aquino 'diffident'
Philippine president Benigno Aquino was described by the former United States' envoy as "diffident and unassertive", secret cables published by anti-secrecy website Wikileaks reveal.
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US ambassador to Manila Kristie Kenney filed the series of unflattering cables after then senator Aquino had declared his presidential candidacy and during the election campaign, the website said.
"Previous contacts with Senator Aquino, often accompanying his mother... left the impression of a diffident, unassertive man continuing a political tradition handed on by his parents but not carving his own legacy," said Kenney.
Wikileaks said the dispatch was made after the son of the late democracy icon and former president Corazon Aquino called on the US envoy at her home in January 2010.
"Senator Aquino's confident, energetic announcement today was a stark contrast his diffident performance last week," she wrote after Aquino announced his candidacy in September 2009.
"It remains unclear whether Aquino can turn his shy, reserved qualities into strengths," she said.
The cables suggested Kenney, who ended her Philippine posting last year, remained unimpressed to the end.
"Unlike other major presidential candidates... Aquino was vague on specific policies he would pursue if he won office," she said of the meeting at her home.
She conceded: "Aquino may be perceived as having had a lacklustre political career, but he also appears to have a relatively clean record with no baggage of scandals, which could be a distinct advantage."
Responding to the revelations presidential spokesman Ricky Carandang suggested Kenney had sided with the incumbent leader's predecessor Gloria Arroyo.
"We normally don't comment on purportedly leaked cables but it's quite consistent with talk that went on in the diplomatic community at the time that Ambassador Kenney had been co-opted by the Arroyo regime," he told AFP.
Chinese studies suggest the waters sit atop more than 14 times estimates of its oil reserves and 10 times those for gas.
14 times estimates of what number?? what are we talking about? i'm sure they mean the whole of the spratlys all the way and including sc72 but i wonder what that number comes out to..
i guess one way to play this is just buy philex in your retirement account and forget about it..as surely they will get the philipino contracts if spratlys is divided up among all.
i found this on the yahoo news today
Philippine President Benigno Aquino said China is pushing for a legally binding code of conduct in the South China Sea, a move that may reduce confrontations in the waters claimed by several countries.
China wants clear rules for operating in the seas that go further than the non-binding guidelines they agreed to at a July meeting with Southeast Asian nations in Bali, Indonesia, Aquino said after meeting with President Hu Jintao. China’s official Xinhua News Agency cited the Chinese leader as saying disputes in the waters should be resolved peacefully.
“It’s significant that they will be pushing for that code,” Aquino told reporters in Beijing last night. “Not just as a statement of principle, but rather a binding agreement as to how each and every party in the dispute will conduct themselves.”
China has used patrol vessels in recent months to thwart efforts by Vietnam and the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, to explore for oil and gas in the South China Sea. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned in July that increased confrontations in the area are a threat to sea lanes that are “absolutely essential” to world trade.
“I don’t think China is going to make such a major concession anytime in the near future,” said Arthur Ding, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations in Taiwan. “Minor friction is likely to continue.”
‘Entering Chinese Waters’
India’s Foreign Ministry today denied a Financial Times report that said a Chinese warship confronted an Indian navy vessel after it left Vietnamese waters in the South China Sea in late July. A caller identifying himself as “Chinese Navy” contacted India’s INS Airavat and stated “you are entering Chinese waters,” the ministry said.
“No ship or aircraft was visible from INS Airavat, which proceeded on her onward journey as scheduled,” the statement said, adding that the incident took place 45 nautical miles from the Vietnamese coast. “There was no confrontation.”
China received no diplomatic protest over any naval incident, said Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu in response to questions about the report at a regular briefing today in Beijing. He said he has made inquiries about the report but has no information on any incident.
Chinese vessels in May sliced cables of a survey ship doing work for Vietnam, the second such incident in a month. In March, Chinese ships chased away a vessel working for U.K.-based Forum Energy Plc (FEP) off the Philippines.
‘Properly Handle’
“Previous to this, all of those incidents with us and Vietnam made people pause,” Aquino said yesterday. The sentiment in the meeting with Hu was that it’s time for “an actual code of conduct that guides everybody as to how to behave within these disputed territories.”
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Aquino during a meeting in Beijing today both governments must “properly handle the disagreements between us.”
China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations agreed in July to a framework for implementing a 2002 agreement on behavior in the sea. That document calls on signatories to avoid occupying disputed islands, inform others of military exercises and resolve territorial disputes peacefully.
China’s claims to most of the sea are disputed by the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei. In a 1988 skirmish over the Spratly islands, China killed more than 70 Vietnamese troops and sank several ships, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Joint Development
China is open to jointly developing energy resources in the sea, Ma said today. Vietnam and the Philippines have rejected China’s map of the sea as a basis for cooperating to exploit the resources.
The Philippines, with an economy about 1/30th the size of China’s, plans to boost hydrocarbon reserves by 40 percent in the next two decades to reduce its almost total reliance on imports, according to a department of energy plan. Mineral fuels accounted for 17 percent of total monthly imports on average last year, from 11 percent in 2000, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Vietnam’s domestic gas demand is set to triple by 2025, according to World Bank estimates.
Chinese studies suggest the waters sit atop more than 14 times estimates of its oil reserves and 10 times those for gas.
To contact the reporters on this story: James Rupert in New Delhi at jrupert3@bloomberg.net; Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at dtenkate@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net
this is not a nothing company.it has a few much smaller things going for it <cebu><sc40> but still we all want to see sc72 get done.....and they wont even release the seismographic records of sc72 to its shareholders on time<insider information>.......as if they are trying to keep it secret from china about the big find there...or to keep it secret from us/shareholders on how little is there......kind of how they kept us assuming they had a gold mine for 4 years before it was admitted as nothing, a bust as gold is at record highs.
Lets hope more comes out of this meeting and that sino petroleum is going to get approval from china to go ahead....only to ease up our own desire to drill sc72 asap..Its hard to even speculate when the president contradicts himself with statements and fecof has its shareholders as the last to know about everything.... good luck
the good news is that this meeting is going on right now as we speak and not months away with a potential cancelation.
things are finally coming to a conclusion.....lets just hope fecof and fep.l dont get sold out by aquino for the bigger package of billions in aide and trade from china.
I would hope not, but i wouldnt put it past them, we will soon find out for sure and have to specualte less....for better or worse......I'm still in this for better..........worst case scenario that is sc72 went bust for whatever reason but fecof still owns a hair of cebu and will reflect its share price of 2 pennies in cash within 5 years from cebu alone...so the risk is minimal now.......
just my opinion reflecting many facts.
200,000 thousand shares sounds like alot but at these prices it aint much. everyone should invest within their budget, only you know whats right for you. My only advice is if you can add more with your incoming paycheck to your investments then you should add this one simply because after 5 years of owning this i havent felt more comfortable getting in at these prices then ever before.
Simply because now that its finally "profitable" thanks to profits rolling in from cebu..there is a strong floor now..and with fep finally moving forward after years of speculation..2 to 3 pennies is a great price.
Lastly.....I dont really like to load up too heavy on penny stocks as most turn out to be fraudulent or go bust,,,,,,,,,,But this is my only exception because of the strong possibility of more than a 5,000% return............ that puts it around 50 cents to a dollar.the malampaya is also a great precedent / model for us to go by..i believe i remember reading it made a billion in revenues in one year alone......and fep.l is gonna be larger......70% of sc72 would be 750 mil in revs a year and maybe even larger than that.......liquified natural gas in high demand too??.....wow....its better than watching porn just thinking about the possible future profits with this. If this is in your retirement fund or your kids fund....you could end up being a director in 20 years after it keeps splitting its shares and you hold.
years ago it was trading at 7 cents when all we had was fep just sitting there and a speculative gold mine that went bust...........the price now is better and the equity and possibilities much greater....good luck
p.s.....when you see this stock go to 50 cents and eventually higher than that with volatility of course...you will wish you had at least 500k shares.
when it starts to run it will be too late for you to add..........this could jump 300% to 900% in one days of anouncements, and then you will have a volatile stock to deal with at risky prices.
the big scare of china invading sc72 seems to be an afterthought now.......with a big negative out of the way now.....and allowing/agreeing with china to explore the spratlys......puts fecof and the phil govt. in a safer position to protect sc72 and to anounce/verify the huge gas find/oil find from the months old seismogram.....and with revenue coming in from cebu the price is a great entry point here and doesnt seem like you can get any significant number of shares with such low volume at these more than fair prices. Good luck.
this is very good news, and it also gives us information for doing a mathematical equation to see whats a better indirect investment in fep.l
either
fecof or ppc <indirectly thru pxmff>
if you get 1 share for every 8 of pxmff then the market cap at todays price of pxmff<2.8bil> is 350 million market cap for ppc. 2.8 billion divided by 8 is 350 mil.......pxmff has a current pxmff is off its high.
granted that ppc has more than just fep and a larger percentage of it as well.........but fecof also has more parts to it as well.........when you compare a 10 million market cap to a 350 million market cap for ppc i think newcomers and oldtimers will agree there is significant upward value for fecof in this equative/analysis alone.
good luck
i was in athens to see my folks for 2 months. I usually go to one of the ionian islands named Kastos where i have some property.they say theres oil in the ionian sea as well but it looks like europe wants to enslave greece in debt and then take its oil....Greece is a perfect example why socialism doesnt work for shit...<corporate welfare shouldnt be allowed either, the gap in wealth is evident to that>....my parents retired there for free medical and although they get to buy drugs at 90% off..the hospitals that are supposedly free are like something out of eastern europe in the 70's.....and so when they need to rush without an appointment you go to a private hospital.....my moms breast cancer surgery cost 5 grand u.s. and my dads prostate surgery was like 7 grand.....if we would have went with one of his doctors on the list...which i couldnt because it was a rush job to the emergency room.it would have been around 5 grand as well.........better than US prices but definitely not free.
greece is wonderful to travel the islands to.......but with taxi strikes this summer they made a shithole of things....if the country collapses and i think it will....i will be able to go further with my dollar like i use to back in 1997 when a beer was 75 cents..........not 4 dollars like it is today.........i use to treat everyone....now i cant even afford it myself so how the hell will they with the lowest wages in europe.
europe in whole is in decline....recession....the u.s. has been in a recession for the last 2 years even though they dont admit it.......and this will hurt china too since they so heavily depend on our buying chinese crap.....World Recession will be here and a war will be planned to reduce the worlds population so jobs and property will be abundant again. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, i just understand how the world works......the most valuable items will be food, water, and energy.......so i live on the coast line to be able to fish when necessary and own a huge energy find in fecof.
Gold has its worth but will get rocked as it will be less in demand in a recession...people are selling their gold jewelry.not buying it....yes gold is a hedge now, but i think its comparison to food value .<food and water >a commodity that is a real neccessity will dwarf gold.
what are the chances of fecof hitting a dollar within 12 months??
hello everyone....i was away in greece to see my folks....just got back..........I'm still holding fecof at an avg price of .035....i averaged down and own 640 k shares and another 100k in my nephews account.........news seems to be swaying a little bit more on our side lately.
I'd like to see a jv done soon but not a chinese company.......whats to stop a chinese jv company who is later ordered from their chinese dictator to pay the chinese govt. instead of the philipines.NOTHING is the answer so i am dumbfounded by the handful of ignorants on this board that would like to see something like that happen.
Warships bought to patrol sc72 is awesome news......offers for jv partner would be great let alone a jv anouncement.........but from last theyve anounced a year ago...no offers have been made and that anouncement of an offer should come before any agreed anouncement.
china open to discussions on joint spratlys is a huge relief as the reed bank should be the first to be left alone to the philipines in this disagreement.
profits for fecof sounds good too...i wonder how strong that revenue stream will be and for how long.
i need to look further into these spinoffs and see if its affected fecof in any negative way......if someone has already done the research i'd like to hear their own conclusions.thanks.
is the spinoff being traded yet......if theres any links on the stock symbol or how to get it, i would appreciate it...I assume you got to own philex before its spun.........or has it already been spun and not publicly traded yet?
“I believe some countries now are playing with fire. And I hope the US won’t be burned by this fire,” China’s vice foreign minister Cui Tiankai said.
I WOULD Love to see the chinese to continue to show their arrogance and stupidity and even attempt a conflict of any magnitude with the us or its destroyer..........this might finally wake americans up and boycott that stinkin' country........this would be the beginning of an american recovery the US we desperatly need.......we can buy less and produce more right here in the US............if a couple of corporations who betrayed us by sending all their jobs to china get hurt, then so be it..good riddance...bring back the mom and pop shops that build communities and help fund taxes to support our way of life.
theres too much talk on this subject..the chinese can wait everybody out..theyve been around for over 5,000 years.........if you want to understand their sly strategies and perverted thinking then read "the art of war"...its their bible.
What we as investors can only hope for is that we see less talk and more action.....we need to drill sc72 while the destroyer is there.....force chinas hand and see if these assholes are crazy enough to make something bigger of it........it will then at least Force the conversation under the eyes and support of the entire world community regarding international Law......If these communists think the world will continue to allow china to be the second largest economy with this kind of dictatorship approach to world events they will be awakened..................if the world was able to successfully boycott just 20% of chinas goods they would spin into a spiraling depression within 6 months or less.
I remember how frances vineyards were sufferring greatly post 9/11 after their stupid anti-american remarks/sentiment........this issue is way more serious then french pompusness.
i dont understand why the damned chinese cant just offer to buy this oil field if they want it so bad........ this is below chump change......... If they offered lets say 600 million it would be theirs.......... is a war scenario worth 600 million to them? they are the worlds second largest economy despite themselves...american consumerism made them who they are today because they had everyone working for slavewages...I want to see them collapse like Japan did in the early 90's......i cant wait.
on a side note....
Nido petroleum is way down from a recent 16. to 5 cents......thats a 75% haircut in just days,,,,,,,,They had a market cap of around 200 mil now its down to 75 mil. I wonder what the story is there,
it should hold some significance because we share in one or two wells with them and they explore the same regions as we do.
i didnt respond when seeing that quote because i take it they meant they wont be drilling in the spratlys and sc72 is not the spratlys.......they should always specify and clarify but theyve already done that before..they arent the smartest or most eloquent speakers in the world...even if that quote originated from the philipines.
does anyone agree with this train of thought and likely turnout?
the us has a destroyer in the reed bank and the chinese are just waiting for their chance to plop down their floating driller in the reed as well........so therefore because of circustances and unusual events, sc72 would have to be drilled soon while under protection from USA navy, as to not give China the opportunity to step foot on that reed again. I'm sure that destroyer wont be staying there forever and China has not settled the argument and admitted that the reed bank is solely controlled by the philipines.
STRIKE while the iron is hot....let china know what were doing with actions and while big brother USA is still around to help.
I dont want to end up like that us company that got sold a contract by vietnam and china sold the same one to someone else.
lots of possibilities..........'' I think its a chess game....they made the false bluff of pawn to rook on sc72 which they knew the coundnt take...but as sc72 was being defended, china makes its move on spratlys what it wanted all along and possible to overtake within law...........or battle.
They will say" well we let you have sc72 so we then keep spratlys/ nnshun islands..............just my feeling..............good luck to all, y are selling moves like a poker player hides his true hand and intention at the championships.
eom,
would you actually like to see cnooc as a partner??
How could you, or expect anyone else, to trust these guys anywhere in the near future....their actions speak louder than words.....how can the philipines trust China with what may very well be the largest field they have to date....bigger than malampaya..
they could at that point keep all the cash, .....pump out more oil than they are actually reporting......and even turnaround and say..on second thought we do own this sea so forget you.........
I wouldnt touch CHina with a stick.. I tend to learn from my mistakes.
i didnt see Shell on the list...maybe they get the inside track since they already have Malampaya............and if we can be so lucky maybe they''ve already eyed our investment. I also didnt see Petro China, I guess they must be a wee bit upset that they couldnt just landgrab whatever they can get away with in the veil of night.
About edison research: I cant figure out why edison would price fep as a 100 mil company at best when it could eventually produce a billion dollars a year like malampaya.....maybe they mean before actually drilling its worth 100 mil today with the risk included? Eitherway I'm not selling for chumpchange after this effing rollercoaster they just gave me.....30 cents and higher for me for fecof
i didnt see Shell on the list...maybe they get the inside track since they already have Malampaya............and if we can be so lucky maybe they''ve already eyed our investment.
About edison research: I cant figure out why edison would price fep as a 100 mil company at best when it could eventually produce a billion dollars a year like malampaya.....maybe they mean before actually drilling its worth 100 mil today with the risk included? Eitherway I'm not selling for chumpchange after this effing rollercoaster they just gave me.....30 cents and higher for me for fecof
hello hain..can you please post a link to that...seems like it was research done a while ago, not dated on the post....and nat gas now is 4.6 not 6 like at the time this was released. thanks
according to those figures
theres roughly 33.5 million shares of fep according to their website
22 pence plus 126 pence is 148 pence
150 pence is converted to 2.44 us dollars http://coinmill.com/GBX_USD.html#GBX=160
33.5 mil shares in issuance x 2.44 us dollars = 81.74 mil
and on the high end they said 700 pence <if we get to 8 mmbtu> so
33.5 mil x 11.4 us dollars is 381 mil
so fecof gets 25% of 381 mil according to edison research?? a 95 mil market cap? best case scenario and nat gas is 4.6 not 8 right now?
natural gas prices today are 4.6
http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp
if this is correct then ive been holding way more risk then potential reward....<which i thought was the other way around>..... I hope theres a mistake somewhere there.......doesnt make sense or weve been doing the wrong calculations on this from day one.
is there a difference between mmbtu and mscf?
yup....i exxageratted, unknowingly exactly by how much.......didnt think anyone from the IRS would be double checking the figures Eugene.
I own 620 k shares in my account at roughly 20g at todays price
and another 150k in my nephews account........doesnt quite add up to 1% of the company....more like .02% of the shares............maybe between the lot of us on this board we might have 5% of the shares,who knows......with a float this thin every little bit off the table helps for price appreciation.
the float will be superthin........and any anouncement upwards of previous estimates and that of a Shell Partner will send us flying..... i would suggest nobody settles for anything less than 30 cents in those events. We are not out of the woods yet but we finally have a warship/ security protecting the investment finally, which also means they can finally start drilling without big worries. I would also think that legally the US agrees that sc72 is in total philipino jurisdiction.