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Re: eom7 post# 4789

Thursday, 09/15/2011 10:29:46 PM

Thursday, September 15, 2011 10:29:46 PM

Post# of 12369
......

lets do some ruff figures, and I mean very ruff,,,,but here it is.......

if malampaya took around 3 years to pay off its investments of 3 billion...then lets say they made a bil a year......

I think this most recent year they also made around a bil............lets say earnings,,,,,,although it might have been revenues,,anyway........

lets just say for arguments sake they make a bil a year

and therefore lets just say fep is doing the same...

you wont see that bil a year until after they pay off those loans.they will be building equity surely......but not accumulating cash.........so three years for positive earnings....and lets say its a billion as well..its malampayas clone........and a <p.e. of 3 to 4 but lets leave that aside for now>

a billion multiplied by 70%<fep's share of sc72> is 700 mil,,,,,,,,,according to a recent article released quoting fep's chairman saying, the would be happy with just a small percent just to get this done on a huge find worked by huge companies.....lets use 15% as you say eom..... so thats 105 million per year for fep...... so thats around 24 mil for fecof.......and on its best day if we ever get out of this recession,,,,,,,,,,,,,multiplied by 4 makes this a 100 million market cap........so basically around 20 cents per share in 3 years? netflix did the same thing 1000% return, and it was a no brainer!!! everything would have to go right.......but theres no way I'll see a dollar a share if fep hands over 80% of sc72 for financeing and partnerships......
there is some sound analysis in what i'm saying..its far from detailed and very ruff but i'm not pulling numbers out of the air either....
i'm long fecof but lets not exxagerate anymore.