Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hey everyone...been a while. Hope you are all doing well.
Been a bit busy lately...well, for the last year! heh - which i guess is a good thing.
Hope to participate again once things are wrapped up here with this project.
take care.
i don't have my bear suit on, but i'm not as gun ho about the bull case as i once was.
Anyone got their Dow 10K hats on? i just took mine off for a bit.
We are way over extended here...i don't think institutions are buying into this based on tick highs today.
Good setup as any for bears to make something happen here. With recent VIX lows, USD trying bounce, double top showing w/ potential divergence and a lack of sector confirmation....we could see a pull back, but one i continue to believe should get bought. It looks to me confirmation of a chagne in trend requires a move to around 1040-50.
it would only take 1 or two decent day - but i think the first half of the week may see a pull back.
Selling the QQQQ@43 and SPY@108 Oct calls against these existing positions. I think we go higher, but don't mind getting called on these contracts, as they should lock me in around 5+% and 4% respectively. On the flip side, they should provide a 1% or so protection.
drum roll...
There was also the fact that VIX traded completely outside of it's upper bollinger band two days ago. Hasn't done that often, but most of the times it was good for a long trade.
the thinking was...could gold be a confirmation of a bottom recently, at least in the initial weeks following a potential bottom? not sure...
Thanks Eric. When i overlay gold on an S&P chart, i notice that there is a sharp move up in gold during the initial couple of weeks following a bottom - leaving me with the idea that possibly investors are pairing the two until they are more confident a bottom is in. just an observation
Do you believe gold is possibly being used as a hedge? i have noticed the last 3 or 4 bottoms this year shows that gold has bounced with the market, implying possibly that investors are going long while at the same time going long gold as a hedge?
Finally sell off more than 2%. I have been hoping for such a retrace for quite some time now. Picked some QQQQ and SPY today.
true - but i still think any dips are good buying opportunity.
we have seen this type of market before and usually when the market makes higher highs in the type of over extended market, it does not stay down for very long...
Finally seem to have some good selling based on breadth and tick. we haven't had a tick reading below -1000 in two weeks.
i'd love a 2% down day to start adding again - but range over the market hasn't managed on of those in some time.
Today we made our 9th consecutive higher high and we are now pretty over extended. Does that make me any more comfortable going short - not really. this run is looking like the july run.
-New 52 highs 275+, expanding, but not a warning/sell as yet.
-VIX apparently showing a lot of complacency, but i think it will hit teens over the next few months.
-Market making higher highs in overbought..underscoring strength of bulls and foretells of higher price.
we need retrace, but i'm thinking it will get bought.
i not sure if it will be major, but i think we are due for pullback soon. thinking of taking a short trade into close. we have now had 8 consecutive days of higher highs on the s&p - odds favor a lower close in the next few days i think.
what do you guys think of UNG? i bought some last week due to a lot of negativity around it and some bullish st technicals - it has done very well so far and as its making a higher high today. I am now wondering ... breakout or double top...given the negative chatter arout nat gas, my gut tells me it probably could continue to undergo a short cover rally.
i think it may bounce to around 27 but at some point before end of year, i will hit teens again.
about time - i'm feeling better about buying the dips now. lol.
wait till it hits 1000, then we'll see a breakout. Cold has been trending up along with the market since around april. It may just be a better hedge than puts for those that want to go long the market.
thanks nick. i remain bullis, but it would be good to get a couple of days of decline, esp considering the charts are not showing much much negatives. the negatives, as you point out, are coming from little observations under the surface...
i think aug 7th high of 1018 will be key for any short term retrace. we found support once already this morning in that area.
i am not, but it has that dirty word 'analyst' in its name - lol.
nick, have you noticed defensive stocks outperforming lately? i also see that the BDI has broken its uptrend to the downside - wondering if these are giving us a heads up..
lol..i didn't notice much today, as you can guess by latest response.
this market refuses to give bears much.
Yesterday looks like it was a reversal day on the S&P...with futures up this morning, i think those highs will be key in negating the bearish implications of that reversal day.
Also noting that while we made a higher high yesterday, we had less 52 week highs as compared to the early August highs.
I believe many of the intermediate term bullish stats that i have noted periodically over the past month or two are off the board (most were looking out 20 to 40 trading days). I am still bullish, but playing with much smaller positions...
I think some things need to happen soon to confirm this higher high moves. There are a number of sectors that are not confirming this higher high move on the S&P - look at SOX, EEM, Dow Utils and Transports, and you see that they have not yet made a higher high. These all participated in previous highs the fact that they are not at this point may be a warning i'm thinking.
Also, i see 48 new highs today. If that number is correct, it would be far lower than the highs made earlier this month.
S&P needs to close above 1018 today.
that may have been a good move...well, for an Short term trade anyway.
Based on breadth (>90% down volume) and VIX (closing 10% away from it's 10MA and above it's upper BB), probability are higher that we could see a close higher than today's in the next few days...
nice. was there a month ago and martha's vinyard two weeks ago. something about those places that really gives u an appreciation for the beauty in this world u rarely hear about. about 2 months ago we did newport RI also.
the NE has its share of gems.
if markets sell off today, the clear clue would have been nyse vs nasdaq volume. nyse way down while nasdaq up. speculators only one buying it seems
All policiticians use trojan horse tactics i think - get in, and worry about the conequences of breaking promises later.
In john mccain's case, i actually think he started out early trying to be too honest with the people. Now i'm not picking sides - it's just an observation based on how his campaign started and ended. It seemed he realized a little too late that the people don't often want to hear the truth, they won't to be told things to make them feel better.
Regardless, don't know if it would have helped him had he realized it earlier.
You have had some incredible returns on some of these this plays this year Nick. congrats.
The BB band on the VIX, VXO and VXN are VERY narrow. Interestingly, that has different meaning depending on which you use research.
For the most common, VIX, when the bands range (top - bottom) is the smallest over the past 200 days, it's been rather bullish looking out a month. What is very odd about this is that the VIX today vs 20 tradings days later will remain almost unchanges (+/-1). I haven't looked at the chart to see how it moved in that time, but i imagine it probaly was volatile---volatility of the volatility index. lol.
Not sure - is the source StockCharts? try Quote.Com see if they are showing the same issue - if so, it may be an exchange feed issue (or whomever their provider is).
Thanks. good stuff.
Some ST stats...
SOX down 5 consecutive days, while trading above it's 200MA
-15 previous instances in the past decade
-14 of the 15 instaces, the SOX closed higher within 3 days
NDX made a new 8 day low while trading above it's 200MA
-102 previous instances in the past decade
-83 (or 81.4%) of the time the NDX closed higher within 3 days.
I understand that Precther has called for a move that will take out the March lows. I think it is way too early to make such calls and at this time I don't think that will happen. It sounds like Prechter may end up falling into the same trap he did back in 03 - becoming too much of a perma bear.
The Fib 38.2% retracement projected to around 1015 area for the S&P. That sort of became self-fulling i believe because there was no significant and visible resistance for traders to latch on to, since we the move above 1008 took us into the area of the 'crash' last year. That happened to so rapidly and fast, that there was no highs in that period that could serve as a support high. So in the absense of such highs or tendlines, traders turned to Fib retracement levels.
MACD cross over generally lags. meaning for a bullish corss over to occur, the market has to have hit a bottom already and generally should be in a short term up trend. So given that, although you would miss out on some of the 'meat' from the bottoms, with cross over, you are conservatively betting bullish based on an estabilished and strong ST trend.
Given that this is on a weekly chart, it is probably more reliable since it tends to be smoother and therefore, less chance of a head fake.
Decent pull back the last few days to relieve those oversold conditions. SOX is actually ST oversold here.
Picked up some QLD and EEM (possibly starter positions)
coming in loud and clear.
it sounds personal at this point. lol, j/k.
There goes 1015, and immediately, Dow pops +20.
S&P finally takes out 1008 and is in that area that could produce volatility. We basically are in the price range of the 'crash' last year. There are not many resistance that traders can find here. Either they will be looking for us to recover the entire move down from early to mid Sept 08, or they will be jolted with some fear as memory of that period returns.
In the mean time, i guess this is a good use of Fibonacci and 1015 is a fibonacci retracement level and therefore resitance.
Today looks more methodical and then panic buying, which leads me to think we could finish at a high.