I don't know if this has been discussed yet but I was looking at a 9 month daily of the VIX and it looks like we are setting up here for a potential Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

We have the May 7th - 17th 12.50 lows
Then we have the August 5th Lows of under 12
And if we hold here we have 12.50 to 12.75 lows.

The top is a double top at roughly 21.

Also the current 12.50 level falls right on the lower trend line extending back to March of this year. So we also have a series of higher lows as well taking place - IF the 12.50 area can hold.

Technically, the MACD is looking ready to cross and has made a higher low from the August levels, and the RSI has been holding above 40 for most of the year, not including the August dip. But it rebounded very quickly.

I take this is a positive divergence for UVXY. The VIX is technically in a Bullish phase as per the RSI, yet the SPX keeps rising. This is similar to the previous top of 2007. At the end of the run, the VIX and Market were both rising and then one stopped.

Good Luck...

Crazy days... DUST closed the gap about $30.90 today and bounced. Move Up or Down... Nuts.

I would really like for GDX, NUGT to finally drop. I want to see GDX get back to the low $23 range so I can get in. both NUGT and DUST are sitting in the middle , hard to get all in here.

GDX has a lower trend line from June - would love to see it hit that and bounce. Maybe Friday's numbers takes us there. Until then I am putting a little bit to work in DUST. Hoping to see a move to $37.

GL

I agree it has been confusing of late with GOLD. I am going to get into DUST here looking at a stop at just under $25.50.

And it doesn't look like GOLD can hold 1350 - Let's see if GOLD can break through that area after crashing through today or was today just a nice shake out....

By the looks of the move the last two today, I get a feeling that we are going to see the @23 area once again on GDX.

And if you read this article about MINERS and the S&P 500 correlation for the last 20 years, then a Taper announcement is going to send MINERS and GOLD higher ...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/cyclical-‘mini-me’-big-secular-event


This is going to get fun , YEA BUDDY...

And that's been the real pain, is that I , You and a whole lot of other people know we are way extended here , but with the FED fighting the "good" fight and creating such market distortion, it makes it really difficult to trade against all of the negative market divergences that are screaming "crash" , yet Price keeps rising.

And I guess analytically and technically speaking it almost seems by the move in the Equity Market ( sitting at the upper trend line ), the US Dollar sitting at lower support, GOLDs recent bounce, the VIX sitting on lower support and holding, 10yr Treasury Yields look set to rise, that the Major Market Players know something, like this time the FED is going to Taper just a bit.

Remember last time the 'talking heads" were all saying $10 - $15 billion a month Taper, in the bag, no brainer. Now this time no one is saying that. So makes me think that we get a Taper call tomorrow. And with this being Helicopter Ben's last meeting , what better time to do so. If the shit really hits the fan , then whoever takes over can start a new series of intervention , which will be QE on the same stuff that Big Poppi has been taking during the playoffs.

I'm going on a limb and saying that the FEDs announce a Taper tomorrow. But I'm not ready to put my money were my mouth is , LOL. Not Yet anyways....

If it is a head fake then tomorrow in the morning I would link GDX continues down to the $24.50 to $25.10 area , which is a nice %50 Fibonacci Retrace of the recent move off of the $22.80 area. So the move to that area from today's close is only another %2.5 to %4. That is nothing for NUGT obviously.

The only problem I have with placing a buy order at that range is the What IF factor. Like what if the FED finally gets the balls to say Taper ON. Wack goes NUGT. I think like all here I believe the odds of that are very low, but odds none the less.

I think I will just wait for the announcement and see what it happening with GOLD overnight for any clues. But if I had to guess from a chart and volume perspective , I think the recent move in GOLD and thus MINERS is just the beginning of a strong move upward. Today GOLD found support at the 50 DMA and this comes as the 50 DMA crossed the 100 DMA a month ago. But on the GDX it lost both today, on weak volume, but none the less. And the 50 DMA is getting very close to crossing under the 100 DMA once again. Of course some crazy talk out of the FED like " we are increasing the amount of QE by "only" $25 Billion a month for only a short period of time, BLAH BLAH BLAH would quickly change all that.

These fuc*@# professors at the FED are driving me crazy, lol.

Here is something I found interesting today with Equities and GOLD.

Since Oct 10th - GOLD ( GDX, NUGT ) have followed Equities upward and I assume it was the No Taper Announcement expected tomorrow deal.

But then today GOLD and MINERS took a very different view of the Market. Equities which can't be stopped go UP and GOLD goes DOWN.

I'm now wondering... Is it buy the rumor sell the News once again tomorrow ? Does GOLD know something about tomorrow's FOMC meeting or do Equities have the inside track on the decision? Or are MINERS just doing a head fake to shake out some stops, bounce off resistance, drop down to 24ish on the GDX and then continue onward and upward for a little longer ? Or are Equities just getting pushed a little higher to squeeze in the last couple of fools who just want to buy in at the very very very top, only to steal their money as usual and a decline occurs ?

What happens if the FOMC says - no change same 85 Gazillion or whatever it is now a month ? Does GOLD and Equities just keep going up.

I assume that if they say we are keeping stead now but we are going to Taper soon, then all Hell breaks lose or maybe not.

I am confused, lol. I'm sitting on the sidelines for now...

I have to agree with you on the No Taper announcement for Wednesday. If anything I am actually starting to believe that we may even hear some chatter from the FED about a possible increase in the amount of QE, on a short term basis, before a reduction of QE actually takes place.

I think it is well understood by now, even by those who think Keynesian Economics is the answer, that QE has not had to desired effect the book worms thought it would. But I do not believe that the poor results so far are going to change their minds on their decisions they are making. I also believe that we all know by now that once QE amounts are actually reduced the markets are going to correct and do so substantially.

So, the question I ask myself is, Does Janet Yellen , another Keynesian , Central Planner Economist do what is Right and reduce QE amounts and allow the Markets to correct and then end QE and allow the forces of Supply and Demand dictate Price thus agreeing that Keynesian Economics and Central Planning is and has always been a failure as it pertains to Market Forces of Supply and Demand, Fairness and Equities ? OR does Yellen continue on the road of Bernanke ( another Keynesian Central Planner ) and say that the reason why QE has not YET produced the desired results is because there has not been enough QE injected in the System or it hasn't been enough time to tell ? In this scenario the DOLLAR keeps getting hammered and GOLD will rise as Real Inflation rises as the dollar gets continually debased. Thus blowing an even bigger bubble in the Market and setting us up for an even bigger Market Correction, that is coming soon whether You, Me, Keynesians or Austrians like it or not.

Do you think Yellen becomes and Austrian , a Supply / Demand Economist ? I Don't - Thus I buy GOLD for now. We Shall see

LOOKS LIKE ACCUMULATION THE LAST 4 DAYS. VOLUME HAS BEEN STEADY BUT NO SPIKES. ULT AND RSI HAVE STILL NOT REACHED OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS, AND WE HAVE ANOTHER CONTINUATION PATTERN ON TODAY'S CHART, SO ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE HIGHER HERE. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING FOR THE $60 TO $70 RANGE BEFORE WE PULLBACK

I too think GOLD has a little further to run here - 1360 to 1370 range. GOLD still not overbought on the ULT or RSI and there is no real overhead resistance until there. I am not expecting a huge pullback after this move up - maybe a retrace to the 1320 to 1310 area. From there I would think a move to the 1435 to 1450 area would be next. We would need to see a close above 1434 to starting getting Long Term Bullish again.

DGX is up against it's 50 DMA but that hasn't really acted as to much of a line in the sand. I think GDX has another 5% or so left in it on this run and I'm looking at $27.40 area. With a retrace to the $24.50 area and then a move up to the $31 area, and hoping for a close or intraday move above $31.30.

If the above plays out as such then I expect NUGT to make a move to the $70 area when this move up is done. I would really like to see an intraday move over $75 but we will just have to see about that.

And if you look at the three Charts which all look quite similar - they are forming a potential cup & handle formation. The above near term points of resistance would get each back to the top of the cup and then the pullbacks for the handle and then that final move up. Or a very nice ABC pattern as well.

Time will tell.

I know , I said that in my previous post. But that was back in February. My point is that just because it crossed in February doesn't mean that GOLD is never going higher again.

The 50DMA crossed below the 100DMA in GOLD in December of 2012 then the 200DMA in February 2013

Now the 50DMA crossed over the 100DMA - we are short/medium term bullish. There is no argument on that because it is not my opinion on that the Chart says GOLD is short/medium term bullish specifically because the 50DMA has crossed above the 100DMA. And the only way for that to happen is for GOLD to be rising in Price.

Just as GOLD was considered Bearish when the 50DMA crossed below the 100 DMA and 200 DMA. It wasn't someones opinion that GOLD was bearish that made GOLD bearish, it was the Chart.

I don't have a bias either way on GOLD because which ever way it decides to go I will just trade and make money on it.

What are you talking about ? That was in February. Recently you had a Golden Cross form on Sept. 30th with the 50 DMA crossing above the 100 DMA.

GOLD is bullish right now in the short / medium term. I don't know if longterm we have bottomed yet, but a retest will be in Order. And by the looks of the buying action in and around the $1270 area, I will be very surprised to see that taken out on a retest.

I believe the Bottom is in... It's not like we could be anymore Bearish on GOLD, its not like they are going to stop or reduce QE, its not like the Chinese and Indian demand for physical is slowing down, its not like hyper-inflation isn't going to happen with all the money printing.

Good Luck to All

The 50 DMA just crossed the 100 DMA on GOLD. We have a continuation pattern on the candlestick charts , but looks like some heavy resistance at the $1355 / oz area. Also the ULT and RSI are getting close to oversold.

This move in GOLD lined up nicely with my call for NUGT to the $55 to $60 range. Maybe we get an intraday pop to $60ish tomorrow but wouldn't be surprised to just see $56 or so. That is a 50% Fibonacci move from the recent bottom.

If we happen to cross the $56 range and close above on some good volume then we area looking at the $68 to $74 range next.

I will be looking for a pullback to the $46 to $48 area in NUGT to reenter again, and load up again if that holds.

On the Daily GDX we have at least found some support at the $23.00 area. This I believe will be the area to watch for both BULLS and BEARS. If the $23 area holds then the bottom is in but if not GOLD will be seeing the 1100s again.

Going forward on the GDX short-term I see the $25.50 area and then the $27.30 area is the nearest overhead resistance.

In the Medium Term range the $31.25 area should provide some major overhead resistance. Any move to there will just get pushed back pretty good. A break above $31.25 and then support and that will be the start of the next BULL market in Gold MIners.


I would like to see another test of the $23.00 area with some strong buying and then I think we could be range bound for awhile with some good opportunities to make money trading NUGT / DUST

I agree with you about the Weekly Chart Looking Good. In fact it is the Weekly Chart that says the Bottom may be in here.

- The Multi-year lower trend line ( from 2008 bottom ) has been validated with the recent bounce off of it in July on a couple of Occasions. Now the Multi-year lower trend line is crossing the $23.00 Mark which sets up nicely for both a retest of the Daily and Weekly at the same Price. This is why it is now the most Important Point for both BULLS and BEARS. A break below $23.00, and if it becomes resistance - we are headed back to the 2008 lows and another 30% decline in GDX from here.

- Also on the Weekly Chart there is a Major Bullish Divergence taking place. From the $40.00 mark we have seen price fall to here yet have had increasing buying pressure on the ULT and the RSI. It looks like a major overshoot to the down side in Price. If we hold here some real nice money can be made playing NUGT and DUST here on out.

- Also on the Weekly Chart the Volume has picked up Significantly at this Price Range, also another sign of a Bottom being put in.

- And Probably the best Indicator of all that a Bottom is in is that even presented with all the above, most people are saying that we are going to the Teens in GDX and $1000 GOLD. Almost everyone is Bearish Gold and Miners and that is probably the Best Indicator of All.

I believe that the Probability has shift in favor of a Bottom here than a Going Lower. And this is a Great place to be placing bets as the downside risk is minimal and the Reward is Great.

Good Luck To All.

Possible , but I think we keep moving UP for a bit longer. Any pull back here will be met with buyers.

On the GDX, I'm looking for a move back to the $30 - $31 area.

On NUGT, I'm looking for a move to the high $70s.

GOLD hit 1320 / oz overnight and is at 1306 / oz right now. If we get a close above 1320 , next stop is right around 1400.

I wouldn't be to sure of that - a chart of GOLD is showing very impressive buy pressure the last for days and back in August as well when price has pierced the 1270 range.

I don't know if we have finally put in a bottom here, I mean we were nearly 40% from the top on this correction, but we look to be setting up for a bounce. Maybe the bottom is lower, but if you look at a weekly chart on GOLD it looks as if the 1309 to 1320 range is going to be big here. I am of the opinion that that area is strong resistance and if we get through there and hold, the bottom is in.

If on this move up we blow through the 1309 to 1320 area, I would be watching for a retrace and support there in which case it would be time to load up.

Looking a bit into the future here, a move to the 1420 ish area and then a subsequent 50% retrace using the 1179 recent lows is roughly 1302. That Fibonacci guy was something else. But only time will tell.

Just my observation. GL

GOLD still pushing Up - Trading in Sydney & Hong Kong - 1285 ish

Yea, that was a block of 5+ million shares. And another buy went through worth $1.7 million as well on GDX. Thats putting money were your mouth is ....

insert-text-here

So you are saying that as GOLD and GDX turn and rise, NUGT will continue to fall...

Interesting turn so far today ,

Volume is the lightest I've seen in sometime, sellers running out ....

All of the chart set Ups in the world can't combat manipulation, lol. It is amazing to watch. I can't remember seeing this kind in forever. . Such is life

Let's see what the day brings. Gold has been finding buyers down here, maybe things will turn , or maybe the world will end , lol. Good Luck

Its a great Risk / Reward trade. If this an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, then we are at the bottom and no sense in waiting for confirmation above $96.00 when we are bouncing off of support here on the GDX . We have had six trading days bouncing here on support. If we break support a tight stop and only a few bucks are lost. Support holds and someone who just waged a million will have lots of millions , LOL.

The price was $39.07 not $33.07 and it was a buy... And the Ask was $39 even as well...

From where I'm sitting it looks like GLD just broke through and held a previous point of resistance at $121.81 after an overshoot to the downside and then again held a second area of support at $122.76.

On Friday's chart GLD formed a small hammer candle and then you had a higher close today which is bullish and Volume on Friday was way above the Daily Average - Indicative of a possible bottom.

As far as indicators are going the ULT as just about at the Oversold, MACD is turning up, CCI is turning up as well.

All in all I see a potential bottom here and a potential bounce to $135.00 ( the upper resistance ), a retrace to the $124 area and the a break above $135 and the Bulls are back in control.

So the President has rejected the Republican's Debt deal, and the Senate has voted down its own Debt deal..

Now we move closer to a possible default...

Will NUGT , GOLD go UP ? or DOWN ?

In a normal world I would think that any possibility of a US Default would have GOLD and NUGT surging higher, but since we do not live in normal times anymore I haven't a clue.... WEIRD !

We are within $1.00 on the downside of touching the multi-year lower trend line for GDX, and also forming a double bottom. I suspect we should at least see a bounce in the near term, and then see how the Manipulators react after that...

Did you respond to the wrong Post, or are you Short Gold and upset that there is an alternative view that things may be about to turn....

Here is a short video for a Head and Shoulder pattern possibly forming with a Bullish Bias... 3 minute video.

http://superforcesignals.com/video/2013oct10gdxbullslosetheedge/2013oct10gdxbullslosetheedge.html

Since the ULT bottomed on Oct 4th, the Acc/Dis has been trending sideways even though price has fallen. This too is a bullish divergence and would indicate consolidation / accumulation...

I got in @ 43 yesterday after it broke and held above previous resistance, but then today happened, LOL. I'm Holding and expecting to see $53.00 on a pop, then a retrace back to $47....Then a move to the high $70's... We shall see.

I use the ULT set at 4,8,16 and we have had the bullish divergence since Oct 4th @ $44.42, buying momentum has increased but the slam downs are killing it....

Much like the $2500 - $5000 / oz crowd. They too keep saying its coming , its coming. One of the the crowds is wrong...

With all of the Macro events related to GOLD, such as either a Partial US Default or a raising of the Debt ceiling or Yellen confirmation and continued QE, or the Middle East which the Media stopped talking about since OBAMA got bit&* slapped by the Russians, the Asia demand has not slowed, the fact that GOLD has gotten crushed continuously in the overnight hours , and the overly bearish sentiment - I think we may have just gone about as low as we will seen for some time.

When GOLD was nearing $2000 / oz , all the "Smart" money was saying that it was headed to $2500 to $3500 / oz. All the while the actual Smart money was selling. Now GOLD is nearing $1200 / oz and all the "Smart" money is saying that GOLD is headed to $1050 - $1000 / oz. I would love to know what the actual Smart money is doing now....

As far as the Momentum Indicators go, they are flashing a bullish divergence, price has shot to far to the down side on NUGT, GDX and GOLD itself. But that does mean Price won't drop further, just that a bounce is in order here.

Remember that game Wack-A-Mole as the County Fair.... That's what NUGT looks like right now, LOL.

I would really feel better if GDX got over $24 and closed there... Hopefully it can put in a floor there...