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o.k. rub it in - i bought 30k worth of may Ks (52.5& 55 calls)just before earnings. what do you want me to say I'm a loser - hell i don't even want to think about the beating I've taken in my 120% stock portfolio (all Q) over the last week - how's this ....but I am LTB&H, yea I'm long term, at least I'm not getting margin calls like in '97 & 2001/2 - yet.
Its just money pigs won't eat it. ihavenoidea
"We recognize and respect other companies' intellectual properties, and likewise we expect others to respect our intellectual property," says a Nokia representative.
Is there any honor at nok? In response to admitting they did not respect another companies' i.p., and having to pay $250M in damages for nok's stealing of idcc's i.p; nok then says they respect others i.p.. And, they demand respect for their i.p. How arrogant, how sleezy. Qcom has no option but to be sure they get everything up front from nok, and ironclad t&c's in their agreement as to payment for future royalty payments.
and it's even more pervasive than that. If you were nok you would of course be supporting td-scdma from a strategic viewpoint. it continues your legacy system - you would be telling the chinese, oke noke, you are capable of keeping the big bad wolf (Q) away, knowing that nok is a net winner. Its all so simple and NOK keeps moving along.
But there day is coming, as the downgrade today reflects and they will be back into boots or whatever they were into before cell phones. At best low end phones. And all of this is very relevant to Qcom.
I used this email to answer your question: Bloomfield Hills, Mi. ihavenoidea
leave it to eric to put rationality into potentially pos. situation for the q. altho, i find it amusing that he might now have a shintilla of an idea of how it feels when the rest of us had to listen to the sheath of nokia incorrect shrills like tero for years.(now eric all in good fun)
o.t. fla was my undergrad; and until 5 yrs ago i lived in vienna about 10 miles up the road from 123. did you buy your house 5 yrs ago? i.
"MediaFLO started later," he said, "and when you start later and know more, and they built on much of the DVB-H developments, you end up with a better product. So they are starting to think about it in the USA but I think that DVB-H has a good future in Europe."
I can remember Ingo's great grandfather, who, back in the very early 1900's, as VP for the Ohio Carriage Co., said something similiar:
"Automobiles started later" he said " and when you start later and know more, and they built on much of the Horse and Buggy devlopments, you end up with a better product. So they are starting to think about it in Michigan, but I think that the Horse and Buggy has a good future in Ohio."
ihavenoidea
Nok's 3G Problems Continue
From today's Financial Times; UK edition
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Main page content:
DoCoMo delays handset launch
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo and Ivar Simensen in Stockholm
Published: February 23 2006 02:00 | Last updated: February 23 2006 02:00
NTT DoCoMo has postponed the launch of a 3G handset made by Nokia because of software glitches.
This ad zapped.
The delay, which comes as Nokia has been working to step up its presence in the Japanese market, is an embarrassment for the Finnish group, the world's largest mobile handset maker.
"We delayed the launch to adjust the handset quality. No decision has been made on when it might be launched," said DoCoMo.
Nokia said last week that the handsets were scheduled to go on sale tomorrow.
The handset is Nokia's first 3G model for DoCoMo, Japan's largest mobile phone operator and the first to provide a 3G service based on the W-CDMA standard. DoCoMo's deal with Nokia had faced problems, as a result of difficulties the Finnish group faced in implementing i-mode, DoCoMo's mobile internet service, according to one official. As a result, DoCoMo had scaled back its procurement from Nokia, the official said. DoCoMo said yesterday that the problem was related to the software.
It is also difficult for new suppliers to an operator to ensure that their handsets work smoothly with thebase stations and the myriad software that operators require.
"This shows that it is not that easy to make handsets for different markets even if they use the same W-CDMA standard," says one industry official. After missing out on the demand for clamshell phones among Asian customers, Nokia has spent the past few years gaining market share in the region.
Asia accounted for 29 per cent of global sales last year, up from 26 per cent in 2004, although most of the growth came from selling cheaper products in China and India.
Foreign manufacturers are nonetheless keen to build a presence in Japan, which is one of the most competitive markets in the world.
"We see this as a chance to use W-CDMA technology, which is being deployed globally. We have been working on this for a long time," Nokia said.
Nokia has had a presence in Japan since 1989.
Nokia is also supplying Vodafone in Japan.
Motorola, and LG Electronics and Pantech of Korea have also entered theJapanese market.
"But your fiction sounds good. It sounds better than saying that a CDMA2000 solution for IMT-2000 Core spectrum, one with backward compatibility to GSM that could integrate with an evolved GSM CN simply wasn't a priority"
Eric: Now be fair-It not only wasn't a priority, but was fought "tooth&nail"-by the GSM cartel through its obfiscation of backward compatibility standards. Nothing wrong with that-from a protectionist point of view. I see that sly smile. You can't kid a kidder.
KDDI has proved that CDMA2000 etc., is a very popular way to go for the consumer, when the market is open, something that has cost the EU consumer both short and long term. i.
ricardo:next time don't take such drastic actions to get the stock up (i)
conversely, for those of us that are l/t/b/h and who held feb. options, today's news is a little bitter and a lot sweet.
(i)
Jim:
I'm suprised you didn't comment on the article where the Koreans say that Q's rights to royalties run out in 2008.
ihavenoidea
Who to believe??? Was NOK’s Q4 CDMA market share 12.9% of 18%???????????
Jim:
I can see your in your heart of hearts an honest man. Jorma maybe playing with numbers. "Liars figure and figures lie."
He said 18% market share of cdma units "shipped" in the 4th quarter. Sales and shipments are not necessarily the same thing.
ihavenoidea
"Nokia Corp. has seen strong interest in the CDMA chipsets being jointly developed as an alternative to chips from the current dominant technology supplier Qualcomm Inc., ."
Talk about an admission against interest. This must have been a hard pill for Nokia to swallow; The King is Dead long live the King. Officially welcome Nokia to the CDMA Club.
sbono13:
i like your objectivity. I'm suprised no one challenged you on battery life. Thus,it must be true.
i
Max/Anyone:
Choi also said he expected Samsung's first handset for the European third generation mobile networks, called the Z100, to be initially sold by a few operators this year, and many more in early 2004. It will be capable of fast data transfer and video conferencing.
does the Z100 have a qcom chip?
(i)
CDMA's migration cost is far less than WCDMA, and WCDMA is suffering from unstable technology and delays in deployment.
Jim:
As you know, there is a lot of problems with W-CDMA implementation as summed up by the above. China does not have a dog in the GSM hunt. Whereas, GSM has admirably protected their market by delaying the implementation of CDMA, the gig is up. The world is going CDMA and that's "q" any way you spell it. Father Time is q's antagonist, not Nokia, or Seimans,or awe, or docomo, or vodaphone,or any other company. It takes Time, more than you (or me) have time for. (imho).
There are other problems with W-CDMA, e.g royalty splits, politics, technology capabilities,handset production, configuration, competiton, cash flow, infrastructure costs etc., that in my view reflect an inability to reach any substantial numbers of wcdma handsets in the time frame mentioned. This may, or may not, be an opportunity for 1x,ev-do, ev-dx, GSM1X. How q strategically plays it is significant.
This brings in something that Art B. said a long time ago - the importance of the management team. My bet is that he is right - q has among the best. Not just technically, but strategically.
Your point about the '08 Olymipics (sp) is an excellent one. We know China will do what's best for China. And incidently the Q is a benificiary, by being an advocate for what China thinks best for them. 3GSM is not, and MII knows it.
(i)
Experts say the key to 3G future will depend on which standard China will use, and whether 3G will be competing with Wi-Fi or IP-based 4G.
These folks appear to see thru the GSMA BS.
Jim:
Good point! I think we may be suprised next year. For sure CDMA 20001x, ev-do, etc. will be slected. But they may wait on W-CDMA and say that futher testing and implementation of TD-SCDMA, with Wi-fi and cdma2000 may suffice until 4G and be most economically feasible.
And of even more "reverence", is that the experts vindicate Rob v. <g>
(i)
"Qualcomm collects 5.25 per cent of local sales of handsets in royalties and 5.75 per cent of exports from Korean manufacturers. Between 1995 and 2002, Samsung Electronics had paid a total of 816.5 billion won (US$680 million) to Qualcomm, according to a government data submitted to an annual audit session of the Ministry of Information and Communication."
The Q should put out a Press Release similiar to the following
or at least send a draft to MI&C and Samsung:
"Samsung,known for it high standards in cell phone technology selected Qualcomm in 1994(?) to provide sophisticated chips for its new CDMA cell phones. Samsung has sold approximately 15 trillion won (Approx. $13 Billion) worth of quality handsets since making that monumentous decision. Powered by Qualcomm's chip, Samsung has become the world leader in high performance, high quality CDMA handsets and has positioned itself to remain a world leader in cooperation with its key suppliers."
(i)
As for our overall position, we have well over 30 per cent of the W-CDMA market
Is this right, including handsets,(with a Nokia 3G chip!)? If not, then this is serious misrepresentation and beyond puffing.
As far as the pres of Nokia talking about open specs and prop. specs, etc. i think he's doing very significant and appreciable marketing. After all, selling vaporware is and art, not a science.
i
DR, Re: 3G in China. There is quite a discrepancy in the 2010 Chinese 3G sub estimates between the China Regulator-MII (480 Million- 80% of 600M) and the UMTS forum (85 Million). Also of note the MII is forecasting 56M 3G subs by 2007.
Jim:
Jeeze. I guess i have to do your cheerleading for you: there's no discrepancy at all: wcdma/umts=85M; CDMA1xevdo, cdma1xevdv, GSM1x = 395M; total 480M 3g units!
i
GSM1X
Assuming the GSM1X trials are successful and GSM1X is commericalized, would someone explain to me why GSM1X won't be the 3G standards "killer application"? Chip to big? No operator interested other than Unicom? Will a GSM1x phone be more expensive than a WCDMA phone? Are chips for a WCDMA phone being commercially trailed right now like the GSM1X chips? Will they get to market first? Will they be cheaper?
I don't see everyone in Korea clamoring for WCDMA, even tho the big carriers were saying several years ago that they were going WCDMA, don't see them saying that now - might be they are pretty happy w/ cdma20001x? Why can't WCDMA get off the ground? 3 seems to be in big trouble. Infrastructure costs are hugh. Nokia sure is in no hurry to see wcdma hurt their legacy market, so they aren't going to be competition. Another 12 months and the fun will start (again).i :
First GSM1x trial in China courtesy of Qualcomm, Kyocera
By: Anthony Newman, Wednesday, 20.08.03 13:29 GMT
World first: GSM1x handset demonstrates CDMA2000 service using GSM SIM in China.
Qualcomm today announced the introduction of Kyocera's first handset supporting GSM1x technology. The new GSM1x handset, which includes an integrated camera and offers high-resolution colour graphics and multimedia features, is based on Kyocera's KZ850 model and will be available immediately to participants in China Unicom's GSM1x trial in Suzhou, China. This marks the first GSM1x handset for a market trial.
(Curtosy of mod thread)
The Time Value of Money. The sooner WCDMA gets here the better. Not even weighting in the new market for q chips.
Actually what I got out of the article is that TD-SCDMA is in a lot of trouble. The Q will feign for themselves.
Eric; thx for your reply a couple weeks ago. You nailed it. Qcom is a good investment. For some of us it did teach a lesson on greed. And, we get to be long term investors whether we like it or not! I'm still up 800% and the major part of my portfolio; but I'd rather be up 3000% with a minority stake.
But its just money, pigs won't eat it.
i
Jim:
Being in Detroit, its taken all weekend just to read messages. Anyway, excellent summary, would you clarify the following comment by Keitel:
"QSI commitments at approximately $600M, will shrink to less than ½ due to Ericsson commitment which will expire in November 03."
Does that mean we've had to fund (is that loans or cold cash) Ericsson to the tune of $300M a quarter for the handset/infrastructure spin off? For how long did we do that? Do we get paid back?
Boy, Q is a cash machine going forward, and I happen to agree w/your assessment - i'd rather be a new entrant into the GSM market than an new entrant in the CDMA market. For once i'd have to agree with those nokies from the okies, i.e. cdma is just a niche market - that is, when your a new entre'. When your a new entre' into the gsm market, it sure ain't niche. thank you very much.
Eric:
Bear with me. Assuming everything you say about Edge is true (And I'm not saying it isn't),why would you go with edge, when unlike CDMA 1xrtt, its the end of the line? (e.g significant infrastructure costs must follow to go beyond Edge's capability compared to ixrtt). What am I missing(now be nice).
i
i can't speak for rick, but my experience with proprietary data agreements, confidentiality agreements and the like, is to always include such clauses. And they are enforceable. Just plain ole good business practice.
i
"Is" it?<g>
o.k. Assuming (wrongly, probably) the chipset is 30% of the cost of the handset, then q is giving up 30% of its royalty (assuming the royalty percentage on the chip set is the same as that on the handset) for GSM1X rights. And based on the IJ's comments yesterday that the GSM1X trials are proceeding smoothly, then maybe a good quid pro quo. Maybe not. I'll give q the benifit of the doubt based on history.
Which brings up another topic. Wouldn't it be to Q's advantage if China didn't choose 3G this year? If GSM1X becomes first to market early next year it will kill any WCDMA competitor, it seems to me we'd be better off if China Netcom, Mobile, etc. had this info in hand before they choose which system (1X, W, or TD [too bad GPRS and Edge]). Most of all it might be best for MII before they made their decision.
But then what do I know
i
good info, both of you, thx.
i
Still confused. Are you saying its a distinction without a difference - qcom still gets their "full" royalty - and if so than the only thing i can think that TI gets out of it is cash flow (advance royalty payment) which could be significant. Am i getting closer?
then what benefit is it to TI, when their customer (handset providers) find out they have to pay the royalty rather than TI?
Because the handset providers have to pay qcom the royalty even tho TI doesn't
From the TI Quarterly Report:
Engibous (TI Chairman) hopes to boost sales beginning later this year by capturing business for handsets that run on code division multiple access, or CDMA, technology. That market has been dominated by Qualcomm, which developed CDMA and owns the patents. Through an intellectual property exchange agreement, Texas Instruments can make CDMA chips without paying royalties.
Can some one tell me what Qcom got out of this GSM1X? i hope we didn't get out negotiateed by TI
jim
i agree with you that Q is going to make its #'s and we are having the classic selloff before earnings - the only thing that i don't like is so much insider selling not just IJ, but also Thornley and the rest, it really bothers me.
mike
Jim:
Good stab. Two minor points: don't forget approx. 10% decrement due to reduction in hand set costs. (maybe you included it and i missed it). And Caveat: before SARS, Unicom said they were aggresively testing GSM1X and should be finnish by, I think June or July. Now that they said they are resuming testing, why is it taking to the end of the year?
Any concern?
Mike
Yankee Group is usually factually correct, but is this?:
"Instead, the GSM family of technologies, including GPRS and WCDMA, will grow from 70 percent in 2002 to 80 percent market share in 2007, while the CDMA family with cdmaOne and CDMA2000 will grow from 13 percent to 16 percent in the period."
I thought WCDMA was from the CDMA family of technologies, not GSM, irrespective of its tie to GSM. This, in it self, is a significant win from a marketing standpoint if you are in the GSM camp.
mike