Thanks!

Jim

Thanks again everybody. I am progressing very slowly.

Jim

Thanks Joe and everyone else for the good wishes after my stroke on September 6th. I am recovering slowly.


Jim

SNOOT, If you look at a Weekly high-low chart of the SPX, there was a cycle top the week of 10/19/09, the SPX dropped for 2 weeks then rose for 11 weeks into the week of 1/18/10 for a 13 week cycle, top to top.

Next, from the week of 1/18/10 the SPX declined for 2`weeks then rose for 12 weeks to the week of 4/26/10, for a 14 week cycle, top to top.

Next, from the week of 4/26/10 the SPX dropped for 9 weeks, then rose for 6 weeks to the week of 8/9/10 for a 15 week cycle, top to top.

Coming off of the 8/9/10 high the SPX dropped again into 8/27/10 and the current rally is just a "B" Wave bounce that will turn down next week and decline into late September or early October, then rally again into mid to late November for another 13 to 15 week cycle, top to top.

Do you agree?

Jim

TAXMAN, When I buy a Gold or Silver stock, I lose 100% of the time. I should learn to stay away!

Jim

Sold BGBR at 15 cents -$1.37 (90%)...eom

Jim

No Newly, I'm not long the SPY, I just bought the PUT Option to hold over the weekend and Holiday because I'm expecting a hard down day in the stock market, next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Jim

ROYG, NOPE.

Jim

Yes ROYG, There is a "cyclical low" (for lack of a better term) that occurs about 30 trading days after the Momentum High in the stock market, the last Momentum High was on July 26th, so 30 trading days after July 26th would be next Tuesday, September 7th.

During the past 12 Momentum Cycles the "cyclical low' has occurred between 28 and 32 trading days after the Momentum High, every time.

Jim

ROYG1927, I am expecting a hard down day in the market, next Tuesday or Wednesday, at which time I'll sell my Put Option.

I don't play those Weekly Options.

Jim

Bought 1 - SPY September 111 PUT Option at $1.92...eom


Jim

Covered Newly, my cost on DFS is $22.35 per share (from 2007). There is no bid on the 2011's so all I can do is write 2012's or take the loss.

Jim

Sold 4 - DFS January 2012 $22.50 LEAP Call Options at 80 cents each.

Jim

By the way Fabian, The 8 Week Cycle Low came in this morning at 1039.70 in the S & P 500. #msg-53580001

Jim

"The max pessimism bottom.......was in early March 2009"

The Maximum Pessimism Bottom when the institutions panicked was on October 10, 2008.

Jim

Murray, I would expect the Momentum Low to occur sometime between mid-September and early-October, since the Momentum Low usually occurs 7 to 10 weeks after the previous Momentum High, with the Price Low coming in after the Momentum Low.

In the last cycle, the Momentum Low occurred on May 20th while the Price Low occurred on July 1st.

Jim

Murray, we are in one big weekly cycle that usually runs around 20 weeks, top to top. The last Momentum High occurred on July 26th, while the Price High occurred on August 9th. The next item will be the Momentum Low but it hasn't occurred yet.

Jim

Newly, I'd expect a market low in late September or early October.

We Will Know In The Fullness Of Time

Jim

Newly, There is an 8 Week Cycle Low due today or tomorrow.

Jim

FABIAN, I took a bath this morning #msg-53697586 if I thought that the market was going up very far, I wouldn't be selling.

Jim

LEE, At 1 1/2 cents per share that RMDT looks like your kind of stock, LOL.

Jim

Sold CFX at $12.15 -11.30 (48%). Doing some early tax loss selling.

Jim

AN green, most of the day. They must be selling a lot of used cars.

Jim

DAVE, I use the S & P 500 and it had a lower low on July 1st than it did on July 2nd.

Jim

Lteflow, If you want a profitable Put Option, you may want to consider the TLT LEAPS of January 2012 because my work suggests interest rates`will continue to decline into mid-July 2011, then reverse for a couple of years.

We Will Know In The Fullness of Time

Jim

KENL, The 8 Week Cycle low is due either Thursday or Friday, August 26th or 27th.

The last 8 Week Cycle Low occurred on July 1st with the S & P 500 at 1010 and the 8 Week Cycle Low prior to that saw the Flash Crash on May 6th.

Jim

Emptyhead, Check with Lee Kramer on how he came out with IB.

The stock market is headed irregularly lower into the near future.

Jim

Zab, WPO is up 15 points today. An article in this week's BARRON's says WPO is Dirt Cheap!

Jim

Newly, IIRC Lee Kramer had quite a bit of cash disappear from his account at IB, with no explanation. If they took away from me the amount that disappeared from Lee's account, I'd be down to Zero.

After Lee's episode, I'd be leery of IB.

Jim

WFR used to be a high flyer, trading in the $70's and $80's during 2007 & 2008 but it has since fallen on lean times. They make the silicon for solar panels and at one time silicon was in short supply.

I own stocks where I've written Call Options on my shares, the largest number being 300 shares of XOM, so I wrote 3 January $67.50 (strike) Call Options, so while Newly writes 50 Options I write 3.

Mostly I BUY Options, the most recent trade was buying the DIA August 97 Call Options for $390 on July 1st and selling them for $681 on July 14th. The most Options that I have ever purchased of one type was 5, but never 50 or anything close to that.

Jim

FABIAN, The next 8 Week Cycle Low is due this coming Thursday (8/26) or Friday (8/27). The last 8 Week Cycle Low came in conjuction with the FLASH CRASH of May 6th, will we get another FLASH CRASH this coming week?

Jim

Newly, 50 contracts per month?, I've never traded 50 contracts in ANY month.

Jim

TIO, Since I am not a day trader, I couldn't get the rates that you do, in fact I couldn't exceed the astronomical fees charged by IB for inactive traders, Scottrade is actually cheaper!

Jim

Yes TIO but that generates another brokerage fee. Scotttade (where my account is) charges $7 plus $1.25 per option, even on an Option worth only a few cents.

A friend of mine who deals with a Full Service broker tells me his broker charges $47.50 on each Option transaction, so he lets ALL of the Options that he writes, expire.

Jim

TIO, that is because a lot of people have to wait until the current month Options expire before they can write a longer term Option.

Jim

BALETWINE, The Flash Crash of May 6th came in conjunction with the 8 Week Cycle Low. The next 8 Week Cycle Low is due August 26th or 27th. Will we see another Flash Crash or not?

We Will Know In The Fullness Of Time

Jim

ZAB, I've been playing the low Interest Rate cycle via PFF, I bought it in April and it has been moving up since, very slowly but continually. If my numbers are working interest rates will continue to drop into July 2011, then turn and start up again. I'd look to sell PFF next July.

Jim

FABIAN, Are you playing the potash stocks?

LGDI is involved in phosphate production in Australia and the stock has been sinking most of the year but now may have turned around.

Jim

CONGRATULATIONS Barbara on your LVS prediction! I hope that you bought 10,000 shares when it was cheap.

How high is it going now?

Jim

WJZABS, It appears the August 9th high was THE HIGH for this cycle and whatever rally we get into next week will be to a lower level.

We Will Know In The Fullness Of Time

Jim