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LOL
Thank you...that made my day... :)
Never a stranger, OC...like God, I'm always watching... :)
Actually...it was a plane crash, not a car crash...his jet ran into a snowplow driven by a drunk driver...
Very interesting, indeed!
I don't see the hands of Offor anywhere near this... ;)
Yes...verrrrrrrrry interesting...
But to mimic all the uplifting, inspiring whine and cheese posters on the other board and give you a start-of-the-weekend laugh as to how they'd react to this...
WHAT? How come we haven't heard about this before? Is this what they're really up to? Clear communication from the company is what's needed. Why can't they tell stockholders in unambiguous language? An incompetent attorney CEO is why this company is languishing and why we've lost MILLIONS over the years, with nothing to show for it. All other companies are upfront with their stockholders...why can't this one be? Our price is languishing because the magical market knows all, tells all, and sees all.
All of this, of course, in tongue-in-cheek sarcasm...and IMHO... :)
Have a great weekend!
Very interesting ideas, Seek. A lot of support for what you deduce, based on the seeming dichotomy between no official announcement of SNP leaving the JDZ and outlet reports that they have. Of course, I've always been skeptical of "all" the unofficial sources stating it, as I'm very familiar with the laziness of many in the trade "media" to simply repeat something they heard from someone of some group they trust without verifying it.
Whatever one might think of who has or hasn't done what, I continue to believe that there is a lot more happening behind the scenes than what we know...and has been for some time. Again, missing the forest for the trees applies to many who obsess on this company day to day. These types of activities don't just occur randomly or all of a sudden. As I'm fond of saying, there are no coincidences with ERHC.
The most positive thing is that, if you look at it from a strategic perspective, all these actions form a strong base from which to conclude that ERHC is being packaged and ready for delivery. When and to whom can be speculated about until it comes...but coming, it is...
All, of course, IMHO... :)
He said that to the Doctor of course... :)
Your logic is impeccable, OC...and your posts always make me smile... :)
Have a good 'un and keep all that cold weather that keeps coming down here back up your way...lol
Farrell, I think you're spot on.
I also think SEO is a lot more visionary and patient than he is given credit for. You're right in that Africa is one of the fastest developing areas of the world. I believe the treasure still to be discovered there will change their role on the world stage over the next generation...and that is the role I believe SEO desires to achieve. There is a true need to improve the life of the over 1 billion people who live there...if they don't have their wealth stolen as has been done in the past.
Thanks for sharing your perspectives here and over at "da other place"...I enjoy reading them and many others posts on here... :)
I'm always here, Seek...I just get tired of hearing me say the same thing over and over... :)
Your scenario has a lot of merit. As I've mentioned before, I believe Offor's vision is for ERHC to be a player in the development of the continent's oil resources, both on and offshore. The fascinating thing, in my opinion, is the competitiveness that the non-major E&P companies have with the new African oil countries. The majors have always been rather condescending to the continent as a whole and I don't think they've quite accepted the fact that they are not the only players on the block anymore. They don't move fast enough to secure valuable acreage and I think it is becoming clearer to them that they are going to have to partner with others who have the ability to smooth their way into this new frontier. I don't think they like that one bit...which warms the cockles of an old man's heart... ;)
CEPSA has been wanting to get more into Africa for some time and I don't think this deal with them just dropped out of the sky. I think there's been a mutual courtship going on for awhile and they were willing to move fast to lock up a hot exploration spot in Kenya. I think it possible that we also may have the Chinese to thank for that in that their relationship with ERHC vis-a-vis the JDZ seems to have gotten a little testy after the surprising results from some very expensive drilling. Frankly, given the freeze in any information after the drilling, they probably become rather condescending which is definitely not the way to win Offor's respect.
So while I've always thought the JDZ was being primed as an area wide development and it quite possible that the EEZ could fit into that from a continental development perspective, I don't know that Sinopec is Offor's first choice for a buyout or partnering. But CEPSA, and by default, Abu Dhabi could certainly be Sinopec's worst nightmare if they force the Chinese to bid, not just for ERHC, but for easier access to Africa. They're not universally beloved there now. IMO, It's not that Offor wouldn't sell to Sinopec...but...IF his vision includes his role in strategic development of Africa as a whole, he's got to weigh having to "carry" a company and country that has a way to go to gain respect...and influence. Bucks they may have...but so does Abu Dhabi...a fact which I'm sure they are well aware. :)
So maybe lots more happening behind the scenes than we know! Then again, maybe I'm just full of shyte and enjoy hearing the keys on my keyboard tapping...lol ;)
ALL of this, of course, IMHO...my best to all!
LOL
Well, I wasn't trying to score points and forgive me if I came across as rather abrupt...it was not my intention to be. :)
I understood what you were saying...I just didn't feel that the referenced gentleman was the "best" source of Sir Emeka's intentions vis-a-vis selling ownership of the company. I've mentioned before to some people that I believe ERHC is more than just a salable asset to him. In my opinion, he is also using it to build himself up as a person of strategic influence for non-Africans in the emerging African energy sector.
Thank you for providing a reference as to where the $10 pps came from...I knew it had been bandied about but really did not remember it came from Mr. Bovell. :)
Any guesses on why they didn't announce the "other considerations" part?
In my opinion, when the Vice President of corporate development makes a statement, it *is* credible evidence.
I have never seen any credible evidence that Offor would only settle for $10 per share. I know that figure was tossed around and given the rumor mill on the boards, rumors tend to be accepted as gospel over time.
As for would he accept less after such a long wait, my perspective is that Offor has absolutely no incentive to sell the company except at a price he wants. He'll never lose the JDZ & EEZ acreage, given his influence in Nigeria and Sao Tome & Principe. He can always fund ERHC in some way to keep it solvent. His perspective on time isn't the same as the minority shareholders. I'm sure he would have loved to have monetized the company long ago, but that hasn't played out. However, his resources are much greater than yours or mine. One has to put themselves in his shoes and look at ERHC from a much different perspective...one that is a more strategic vision for him and his role in Africa's newly emerging oil players.
And CEPSA it is!
But...I'm keeping my eye on the prize. ERHC is not a one or two trick pony. Offor wants to sell ALL of the company, not turn it into a going E&P concern.
I'm wondering...
1) is Offor using CEPSA to motivate the Chinese to shit or get off the pot? Everybody assumes that Sinopec is gone...although Sinopec hasn't officially announced it. Aren't there deadlines coming later in the year vis-a-vis our blocks in the JDZ, which would mean that the countdown for them has started? Could that be why the timing of this announcement is as it is?
2) has Offor promised the Arabs (IPIC) a backdoor into the continent to put the pressure on European companies and the Chinese? He wants to be a kingmaker in Africa...will IPIC, through CEPSA, given him the ability to do that?
3) is the new interest by others in the EEZ coincidental or part of a strategy to put pressure on majors interested in Africa but not willing to deal?
If one is only looking at this as a simple asset play by ERHC, maybe they are not seeing the forest for the trees...
I don't know, but interesting thoughts...
All, of course, IMHO... ;)
"... the bashers seem to be taking a day off."
Old bashers never die...they just...fade away...
For awhile, anyway... ;) LOL
Bob, I don't think ERHC was in the CEPSA radar at the time the EEZ blocks were selected. However, I do think it possible that they developed an interest in ERHC when the Chad blocks were awarded. This was just after the time that IPIC acquired the rest of CEPSA. The ERHC Kenya blocks were announced the following year, just after Total began drilling in the JDZ. (Don't forget that it was Total who sold their shares in CEPSA to IPIC, enabling it to take control of the company.)
So, I believe ERHC has been on CEPSA's radar for awhile now and was interested in not only enlarging their African holdings, but utilizing Offor's influence in Africa to continue that process. Hence the initial outreach to ERHC for their Kenyan blocks.
I don't think the East African countries dislike the Arab oil countries per se, as much as they have been courting, or trying to court, Chinese investment. And, as you can assume, the Chinese don't want to compete with anyone...especially OPEC when it comes to cash. However, note that IPIC didn't have full control of CEPSA until 2011, and East Africa has been courting the Chinese for some time. I think that in the last several years, many of the East African countries, as well as other African countries, have had second thoughts about the Chinese. And while not necessarily backing away from them, decided to look at all their options.
IMHO, I think that ERHC and Offor just sorta fell into place at the right time for CEPSA and Kenya both. Toss in Chad, the EEZ, JDZ, and frankly, it would be a nice way for CEPSA to build a portfolio in one of the world's last pristine exploration areas.
All of this, as usual, IMO... :)
That was my question, too, John. "Deal done" was open to interpretation as to "done" with who?
I notice BMU's comment as well, and that could be possible. As I said, interesting depending on what exactly was done with who.
And John, thank you for all the insights you've brought over the past 2 years. Always enjoyed reading your comments based on your oil patch experience.
"IMO, right now if Mromro is correct and approval has been granted from Kenya on the 4th, then what are they waiting for??"
Interesting question...if what you suggest is correct, what reasons would any company have to delay?
"Unfinished" business?
Any other speculations folks want to suggest? Buellar? Buellar? ;)
I would never "insinuate" Farrell...but a "slight to moderate implication" wouldn't be beyond my reach... :)
And why be greedy? I don't have to have $47 a share...I'd easily settle for $4.70 a share.
Oh hell, I'd even give them the $0.70 and round off to $4. Don't want to cause any bad feelings, you know...lol. :)
LOL...I do hope, OC, that you caught the slightly ironic note of jest in my comment. :)
As we have discussed, I believe that an immediate buy-in to set up a future buy out scenario is very possible. And if the "other considerations" indicates that, or hints at a structure for that to occur, I would think the hand writing is on the wall.
Hence, the jesting note I tried to portray in my comment to you. I hope I did not come across otherwise... :)
But what do I know? I'm not a CPA... ;)
Are you saying that a company like CEPSA that has been trying to expand its interests in Africa, and has been stymied there by other well connected players in the oil industry, would be interested in doing a buy-in and possible eventual buy-out of a company that could:
1) help them get a major footprint in a highly prospective hotspot (Kenya) and in another area where there has been successful discoveries (Chad)?
2) help them utilize the powerful influence of the beneficial owner of the company in expanding into other African countries?
3) help them form a consortium of players to spread the risk and back new technologies in deep sea exploration in that company's off-shore acreage?
4) help them prove they are a new power player in the industry?
I mean really, is THAT the kind of silly, unrealistic, far-fetched scenario that a logical person would dream about? ;)
You must be daft...lol
LOL...not me! If folks minds are made up, far be it from me to ask them to consider a paradigm shift... :)
"If ToTal France couldn't make the JDZ find commercial ..."
Manuel, I don't know that is the correct assessment for Total's involvement in the JDZ. Total was only in Block 1 of the zone...in a block they already knew wasn't commercial as a stand alone block from Chevron's experience there.
I don't believe Total bought out Chevron's interest with the idea they would be able to make Block 1 commercial. I think they wanted to firm up more of the prospectivity of Block 1 vis-a-vis the JDZ as a whole. In other words, no block alone may be commercial but the JDZ developed as a whole would be. But to do that would require making an area wide development attractive financially for the risk involved. Frankly, IMO, I think that is why Total pulled out. They knew the results after drilling was finished...why take up to a year to decide what to do if it was such a bust? But if, during that time, they were negotiating with the JDA and the minor partners to complete an area wide deal, that might give some credence to why they finally pulled out. i.e., ERHC, Dangote, etc. were not willing to sell their percentages in any of the blocks for the price that Total wanted to pay...or possibly had to have met to meet their risk model.
This also presupposes that the EEZ wasn't in play either. Is it possible that Total and SNP are interested in a large scale development of both zones over time?
It does not cost Offor, Dangote, or any other minor player to stay in the JDZ or the EEZ until their price is met. While there is a timeframe on each of the zones activities, they surely have the clout to get those changed if need be.
Sorry for the lengthy discourse... :) But if one looks at the JDZ and EEZ as large scale developments instead of block by block developments, it can cause one to look at all the actions over the past several years in a new light. I do not believe the JDZ as a whole is a bust.
All of this, of course, is IMHO... :)
"Excellent results for a cancelled FTG."
As the Cowardly Lion was fond of saying...
"Ain't it da truth, ain't it da truth!"
LOL...I'm always partial to "maybe's", Sneak...keeps me smiling... ;)
And an even better one back at ya...
"We don't get that often."
True dat, king. And when it is done, it's for a reason. I believe that is the same here...
You're da man, Brez! Thanks!
"An independent third party is bearing the cost of the FTG survey under the Company's previously announced financing initiatives."
Interesting...very interesting...wording is everything...
LOL...Brez, I appreciate that but some of what I would say contains personal information. And I'm sure you'd understand that it's not the wisest thing in the world to put that out in the public view. Especially considering the irrationality and probable vindictiveness of some posters, who shall be nameless... :)
DeGen, I'll give you my perspectives, but please note that I have a certain historical knowledge of ERHC that many do not. So, my thoughts are based on views that would not be readily thought of if one does not know the history. And frankly, I cannot share all that with you in a simple post, as it is much too complex.
If you've got PM capability, then send me an e-mail addy where I can write to you. (I do not have PM capability.) I'd be glad to explain to you where my views come from and why. But I warn you...you best be prepared to read a long e-mail! LOL
RX
I miss him too, John. He was very close to my relative, who I have mentioned was a former CEO of ERHC.
And, IMO, BB was correct that ERHC has always been about a buyout. It was never intended to be a long term E&P company but an asset holding company that would be bought out.
As for the JDZ, I have always been a believer in it's potential, as well as the EEZ, although my view is colored by my history with my relative. IMO Emeka Offor is a smart, savvy man, who is much more visionary than what he is given credit for. I won't bore you with my perspectives on why I believe all this, but suffice it to say, I have never wavered from believing that ERHC will pay off.
"But who is selling at these prices when we owners know all the upside we have waited many years for is so close?"
IF this has been part of a strategic plan to get a buy-in and leverage the company's other assets to lead to an eventual buy out, who:
** would have the shares to sell at this price without losing money?
** would be the biggest winner of a buy-out?
It pretty much answers itself...
I think your views have more merit than you think, Seek.
While the Kenya block may be the hot ticket right now, I think that the shareholder update that was put out announcing the LOI completion may have been telling us more than most were seeing.
I found it interesting that they included information on Chad, the EEZ, and the JDZ when, frankly, most people are zeroed in on Kenya. I found it especially interesting with their wording on each item...
** Chad - "pleased to be making progress", "necessary steps toward eventual drilling".
** EEZ - "...there is now palpable momentum building toward exploration of the Zone – both in our Blocks and in neighboring Blocks".
** JDZ - "...collectively examining is to bring in exploration companies to spread risk and to reinterpret existing data with a fresh perspective and possibly a fresh exploration strategy. I especially found the final comment more compelling than usual from them... ("Despite the unexpected outcomes of the initial drilling campaign, we remain enthusiastic about the JDZ and believe that taking a new mindset to the exploration effort would be a very positive development for all involved..")
All of these much more aggressive and positive than usual.
Are we so jaded to the usual generic updates that we missed seeing declarations they were actually making that were based on impending actions they were about to announce? Is the stock scenario we see now an effort to limit the dilution a buy-in would bring? After all, if one buys outstanding shares at, or near, the price they would buy-in, they'd have more control than with all the shares being issued. And, of course, less to buy if an eventual buy-out occurred.
Don't know, don't know...but it's been fascinating watching this!
"Games my friend... games!"
Or possibly to limit dilution with a buy-in? ;)
"Anybody have a logical answer to this?"
Possibly...
When our partner is announced, and the terms, I think it will be crystal clear...
Seek...I agree with others in that I think that you're probably closer to the truth that firms are "stabilizing the price"...given the value of this block, I'm curious as to whether ERHC was able to insist on a closer association of the partner by purchasing an equity interest rather than just getting cash alone...
I don't know, but interesting thoughts...only time will tell...but an exciting time for sure! :)
"Reinterpreting" data..."Fresh" perspective..."Fresh" exploration strategy...could one also add "New technologies" that make more companies competitive? :)
Yessir, Sneak...your equation is well within the realm...
Awww, OC, you always make me laugh! I look forward to meeting you when you're in town. :)
I don't have any special take other than what everyone else has. It's exciting! What I find interesting in the PR, and frankly what could be a real price booster, is the comment "The proposed farm-out agreement includes a carry and other considerations. I wonder, wonder what those "other considerations" will be. While cash is likely, maybe that cash would be in the form of a buy-in? :) If it's a buy-in folks, run and scrape together every penny, shilling, franc, euro, and yen you can find and BUY! All of that, of course, IMHO... ;)
Seek, hope you didn't take my answer to your comment as some know-it-all quip. As I've told OC before, I do not believe Offor has any incentive to sell any of his ERHC holdings at a price other than what he wants. Nor do I think he will sell it piece meal. IMO, he'll sell the whole company or none at all...unless he can sell controlling interest in a way that gives him access to more valuable assets in another company or a long term guarantee in ERHC (or whatever it becomes when finally absorbed).
The downside to that is that he could hold on a long time if necessary. But the upside is that if the Kenya assets play out as expected, ERHC's other acreage could become a hotter commodity and ripe for acquisition sooner rather than later. What did the PR say about the JDZ? "One of the possibilities that the parties are collectively examining is to bring in exploration companies (note the plural) to spread risk and to reinterpret existing data with a fresh perspective and possibly a fresh exploration strategy.
Could they be telling us in opaque language what has been in plain site for some time? Don't know...interesting thought... :)
All of this, in my very humble opinion, of course...
"You have no idea what's going on, your doing nothing more than guessing..."
And the rest of your comment is different than that...how?
" Could SEO be in such bad shape financially that he is selling?"
No. He is not selling.