"If ToTal France couldn't make the JDZ find commercial ..."
Manuel, I don't know that is the correct assessment for Total's involvement in the JDZ. Total was only in Block 1 of the zone...in a block they already knew wasn't commercial as a stand alone block from Chevron's experience there.
I don't believe Total bought out Chevron's interest with the idea they would be able to make Block 1 commercial. I think they wanted to firm up more of the prospectivity of Block 1 vis-a-vis the JDZ as a whole. In other words, no block alone may be commercial but the JDZ developed as a whole would be. But to do that would require making an area wide development attractive financially for the risk involved. Frankly, IMO, I think that is why Total pulled out. They knew the results after drilling was finished...why take up to a year to decide what to do if it was such a bust? But if, during that time, they were negotiating with the JDA and the minor partners to complete an area wide deal, that might give some credence to why they finally pulled out. i.e., ERHC, Dangote, etc. were not willing to sell their percentages in any of the blocks for the price that Total wanted to pay...or possibly had to have met to meet their risk model.
This also presupposes that the EEZ wasn't in play either. Is it possible that Total and SNP are interested in a large scale development of both zones over time?
It does not cost Offor, Dangote, or any other minor player to stay in the JDZ or the EEZ until their price is met. While there is a timeframe on each of the zones activities, they surely have the clout to get those changed if need be.
Sorry for the lengthy discourse... :) But if one looks at the JDZ and EEZ as large scale developments instead of block by block developments, it can cause one to look at all the actions over the past several years in a new light. I do not believe the JDZ as a whole is a bust.
All of this, of course, is IMHO... :)
